


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
932 FXUS66 KSEW 081746 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1046 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will persist today under high pressure. A weak system will cross the region on Wednesday, bringing light rain and cooler temperatures. High pressure will rebound towards the end of the week, bringing a return of warmer and dry conditions by Friday and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Forecast on track this morning. Satellite imagery shows next frontal system now approaching the northern tip of Vancouver Island. High clouds out ahead of the system will begin moving over the northwest portion of the state this afternoon. Outside of a patch of stratus along the coast sunny skies for the remainder of the area. Highs similar to Monday with a couple of degrees of cooling possible as the surface winds remaining southwesterly. Highs for the interior in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Highs along the coast in the 60s. It is another day of Moderate (orange) HeatRisk to most metro areas surrounding the Puget Sound, with Minor (yellow) HeatRisk elsewhere. Previous discussion follows...cloudy skies will fill in this evening as the next system approaches. The approaching disturbance will bring a significant cool down on Wednesday as a strong push of marine air moves into the region. Light rain will spread inland throughout the day Wednesday, with the bulk of the moisture focused over the Cascades, where generally up to half an inch of rain is possible through Thursday morning. Areas in the North Cascades may see locally higher rainfall amounts closer to an inch. Elsewhere, lower elevations will see light accumulations, generally ranging from a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch. The moist marine air will cool temperatures considerably, with highs Wednesday peaking in the mid to upper 60s for most lowland areas. Conditions will dry out by the late morning Thursday as high pressure starts to build inland, with cloudy skies in the morning clearing by the afternoon. Temperatures will rebound several degrees and return to near normal, with most of the interior seeing highs in the low to mid 70s. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Ensembles remain in good agreement over high pressure building into the region over the weekend and into early next week. Friday will bring a return of warm and dry conditions across western Washington, with widespread areas of Minor (yellow) HeatRisk across the lowlands and highs returning into the 80s east and south of the Puget Sound. Temperatures will continue to warm up through the weekend as a ridge offshore amplifies. This will give another potential period of increased HeatRisk as well as an increase in fire weather concerns over the weekend and into the start of next week. 15/Felton && .AVIATION....Widespread VFR conditions across the interior terminals this morning. The marine stratus is expected to remain confined to the Pacific Coast this morning, with ceilings dropping to IFR/LIFR and potential for visibilities to also drop in these categories, with improvement not expected today. The remainder of today stays dry with high clouds (marine stratus will linger the longest along the coast with only a brief break to MVFR/VFR expected this afternoon). The next disturbance tonight/Wednesday morning will bring showers across all terminals, with ceilings lowering to MVFR and widespread pockets of IFR Wednesday morning. Southwest surface flow with winds ranging 8-13 kt (couple gusts to 20 kt possible). Another push through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon may cause some diffluence and turn winds northerly down to KBFI. KSEA...VFR conditions expected all of Tuesday, with a 70% chance of MVFR (20% chance of IFR) Wednesday morning - generally after 12Z. Clear skies today with increasing cloud coverage later today with showers likely after 12Z Wednesday. Southwesterly winds at 7-11 kt, with a couple gusts to 18 kt possible). The northwesterly winds are expected at this time to hold to the north of KSEA (down to KBFI), with rather winds becoming more westerly-southwesterly. HPR && .MARINE...Winds along the Strait of Juan de Fuca along the central and eastern portions continue to decrease this morning, and the Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire at 9 AM PDT. Much of coastal waters and the Strait of Juan de Fuca have marine stratus and/or fog covering much of these waters, which may limit visibilities at times through this morning. A trough over the coastal waters will bring a weak frontal system across the coastal waters Tuesday night into Wednesday with showers. There is a small possibility that seas could briefly uptick. Pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will continue through much of the week, with another strong push likely again Tuesday afternoon/evening. Opted to issue another small craft advisory for the East/Central Strait of Juan de Fuca zones (especially with the front moving through and increasing onshore flow). Another weak low may pass the waters Thursday. High pressure will build offshore Friday into the weekend. Seas are expected to hold between 3-6 ft through much of the week and could become steep at times with persistent northerly winds over the coastal waters. HPR && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry, warm weather will lead to elevated fire weather conditions today with high pressure situated across Western Washington. Conditions are on track dry out this afternoon with minimum RH values dropping towards 25% to 35% over the mountains and through the Cascade Foothills and Valleys. A few wind gusts up to around 20 mph may be possible across portions of the Southwest Interior along the southern slopes of the Olympics as well as through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. A weak frontal system will move across Western Washington tonight into Wednesday. This will increase onshore flow, with much cooler temperatures and incoming precipitation for some areas tonight through Wednesday. There remains a moderate (50% to 70%) chance of wetting rain for the Cascades of Snohomish County northwards, with lighter rainfall amounts elsewhere. Upper ridging will then build back into Western Washington late Thursday and continue into next weekend, resulting in the return of warm, dry weather and elevated fire weather conditions. Friday will be the driest day of the period, with RH values dropping into the 25% to 35% range over the mountains and across the lowlands south of the Puget Sound. Dry conditions look to persist into next week but the details remain uncertain at this point. 15/62 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$