683
FXUS63 KSGF 101412
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
912 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be slightly below normal today and then
  around normal on Saturday. Drier conditions will continue
  across the area today and Saturday.

- Potential for showers and thunderstorms return to the region
  at times from Sunday into Thursday with the best chances
  expected late Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

An upper level trough is currently moving south across northern
Missouri and will continue to move southeast through the region
this morning. A drier air mass is in place so not expecting any
rain with the passage of the trough. Clouds will increase
across portions of central Missouri early this morning with the
trough but should scattered out by this afternoon as the trough
moves off to the southeast. The trough will bring a slightly
cooler air mass to the area as highs warm into the upper 60s to
the lower 70s this afternoon. North to northwesterly winds will
continue to occur across the area today, with gusts up to 15 to
20 mph possible at times this afternoon. Lows tonight into
Saturday morning will drop into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Another upper level trough will move into the Great Lakes region
on Saturday keeping the area in an upper level northwest flow
pattern. Northwesterly surface winds will continue to occur across
the area on Saturday with gusts up to around 15 mph at times.
Highs on Saturday will warm into the middle to upper 70s. Lows
Saturday night into Sunday morning will be in the upper 40s to
the middle 50s with the coolest readings occurring across the
eastern Ozarks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

An upper level ridge will build east towards the region on
Sunday. A warm front will lift through the area and southerly
winds will return to the area on Sunday. Highs will warm into
the middle 70s to near the 80 degree mark Sunday afternoon.
Some scattered showers and storms will be possible across
portions of the area on Sunday afternoon and evening as the warm
front moves northeast through the region and some weak elevated
uncapped instability develops. Overall coverage should be
limited though as a drier air mass will remain in place in the
mid levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, not all locations are
expected to be affected by this activity Sunday afternoon and
evening.

An upper level low will slowly move east across the region
Sunday night into early next week. Showers and thunderstorms
will likely develop across portions of the area late Sunday
night and continue across the area Monday into Monday night as
the trough moves through the area. The ensemble model members
do differ slightly on how fast the upper level trough moves
east through the region, with some members being slower keeping
some scattered shower and storm chances across the area into
Tuesday. Instability is currently expected to be on the weaker
side so not expecting widespread organized convection at this
time.

An upper level ridge will move east over the region on
Wednesday. A warm front will lift north through the area and
with the potential for some scattered shower and storm chances
on Wednesday. An upper level trough will then move east through
the region late next week. There are some timing differences
between the ensemble model members but additional shower and
storm chances will occur Thursday into Friday as the trough and
a front move east through the region but exactly which period
will depend on the timing of the front. Still not seeing a
signal for widespread hazardous weather across the area through
the extended period of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 907 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Band of stratus/stratocumulus will continue to slide southward
into the forecast area this morning. Ceilings between 005-1600
will impact flights east of Highway 65. For the KSGF and KBBG
sites anticipate these lowered cloud decks to remain sct.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Runnels