914
FXUS65 KSLC 150947
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
347 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will continue today, with a grazing
storm system bringing increased fire danger to Utah and southwest
Wyoming and the potential for gusty microburst winds over northern
portions of the area. Temperatures will return to near seasonal
normals Wednesday behind a cold front. Moisture increases in the
lower levels by Thursday, particularly for southern Utah,
bringing an increasing risk of heavy rainfall through at least
Saturday. Drier conditions are anticipated for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Seeing a slightly
complicated pattern over Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning.
High pressure remains over the area, with the centered parked near
the Four Corners area. A weakening Pacific storm system is moving
into the Great Basin as a Pacific Northwest based system tracks
east into Idaho and Montana. Some light showers continue to
persist overnight, primarily along a weak boundary over northwest
Utah, with a few showers over southeast Utah as well. Given the
dry lower levels, little if any rain is hitting the ground with
these showers, which high resolution guidance indicates will
persist in some form into the morning. Under the influence of the
ridge, temperatures will stay on the warm side, with highs
averaging 5F above climo.

The continued eastward movement of the Pacific system will bring
an increase in southwest flow over the area which will act both to
draw some high based moisture northward into the area and result
in breezy enough winds to increase the fire danger over southern
Utah, where conditions are already hot and very dry. As the
Pacific Northwest system continues east, it will bring jet support
with it, resulting in favorable dynamics over northern portions of
the area. Some ejecting shortwave energy from both troughs will
further improve dynamics allowing for scattered convective
development this afternoon. The focus areas will be over the
higher terrain as well as along the frontal boundary over
northwest Utah. As stated previously, the dry lower levels will
greatly limit the amount of rain reaching the ground, bringing a
notable chance of dry lightning and gusty microburst winds with
any storms that develop. This threat will contribute to the high
fire danger for northern Utah and also bring an elevated potential
of severe wind gusts during the afternoon and evening.

Storms will tend to weaken during the late evening and overnight
hours with the loss of daytime heating, with the northwest Utah
cold front expected to be on the move again overnight as it gets a
push from the grazing Pacific Northwest trough. The main impact
from the front on Wednesday will be notably less warm
temperatures, with maxes running near normal for this time of
year. With little overall change in moisture, convective coverage
over the higher terrain is expected to be similar than what should
be observed today, with northern Utah being much drier given the
absence of the dynamics expected today.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...An upper cutoff low looks to
meander over the Baja Peninsula, sliding north toward southern
California. This low will result in a period of unsettled weather
beginning Thursday resulting in widespread precipitation across
southern UT.

Modest moisture return is expected to persist through the long term
period as the aforementioned upper low meanders to our southwest.
This will result in PWATs generally ranging from around 0.5-0.7"
across the majority of UT and southwest WY for the majority of the
long term forecast. Additionally, both the GFS and EURO are hinting
at a chance for PWATs ranging from 1-1.2" across southern UT
Thursday-Saturday. Guidance has also trended toward advecting some
pockets of higher PWATs further north which may serve to increase
PoPs and increase rainfall totals locally. With this setup, some
locally heavy rainfall amounts appear possible, particularly across
southern UT. While details remain difficult to iron out, it bears
watching.

The aforementioned upper low looks to dissipate / phase into the
mean flow late in the period. Following this, an upper trough looks
to dive south over the Pacific NW. This could result in more
unsettled weather near the end of the long term and following,
though guidance still remains somewhat uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Thunderstorms are expected to occur near the
terminal beginning as early as 20z with the highest confidence of
thunderstorms impacting the terminal from around 22z through 04z.
Gusty and erratic winds are possible near and within these
thunderstorms, and severe wind gusts greater than 58mph cannot be
ruled out. VFR conditions are expected to follow with the passage of
the storms.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
through the morning hours before thunderstorms move near or directly
impact the majority of our terminals this afternoon. The highest
confidence of terminals seeing thunderstorms are at KOGD, KSVR,
KPVU, KHCR, KEVW, and KCDC after 20z lasting through 04z at the
latest. Gusty and erratic winds are possible near and within these
thunderstorms, and severe wind gusts greater than 58mph cannot be
ruled out. VFR conditions are expected to follow with the passage of
the storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure remains in place over Utah this
morning, but two different troughs will provide ingredients for
critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and evening.
A Pacific trough moving into the Great Basin will bring increasing
southwest winds, particularly over southern Utah, that will
combine with the already hot and dry conditions to increase fire
danger. Meanwhile, a Pacific Northwest trough tracking north of
the area will provide instability for increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms, particularly over northern portions of
the area, with high based moisture moving into the state in the
southerly flow. Given how dry the airmass has been, thunderstorms
that develop today will be accompanied with little if any
precipitation, bringing the threat of gusty microburst winds and
dry lightning. Red Flag Warnings are in effect this afternoon and
evening to cover these sundry threats.

The northern system will bring a dry cold front into northern Utah
tonight, bringing temperatures back closer to near seasonal
normals for Wednesday afternoon, with conditions staying similarly
dry to yesterday. Moisture will then steadily increase over the
area Thursday into at least the first half of the weekend,
bringing increasing relative humidity values and also an
increasing potential of showers and thunderstorms, particularly
for southern Utah. As the week goes on, these storms will
increasingly be capable of producing wetting rainfall. Some drying
is expected by early next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ478-479.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 11 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ492-493-495>498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Worster

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