Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 052242
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LOCKED IN ON THE WEST COAST MAINTAIN STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR 700MB WARMING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE WARMING TREND GOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS.

WEAK SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DO LITTLE TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT THESE SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE A SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH UTAH THIS WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF PRECIP
STILL LOOKS TO BE REMOTE AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT IS MINIMAL AND THE
AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. MODEST LOW-LEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WARMING RETURNS QUICKLY ON
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST. THAT RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL START TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING AND EVEN
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING COOLER AND MOISTER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE THAT THE
BULK OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...STAYS
OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ONLY
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER FORCING OVER UTAH. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 18Z GFS
TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. BEYOND THURSDAY...DETAILS
BEGIN TO DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH WANDERING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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