Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 281622
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1022 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE AND H5 ANALYSIS PLACE THE AXIS OF
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BISECTING UTAH SOUTH TO NORTH. MODEST MOISTURE
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
UTAH ON INTO EASTERN NEVADA...THOUGH PWAT TRENDS ARE DECREASING
SLIGHTLY. ENOUGH REMAINS HOWEVER THAT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
COMBINED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS SHOULD
FORM SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEVADA THAT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO FAR WESTERN UTAH IN AN ISOLATED MANNER
LATE DAY. THE ONLY UPDATE MADE THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE
AFTERNOON COVERAGE OF THIS IN VICINITY OF WENDOVER...AS HRRR
INDICATES THIS BECOMES A POTENTIAL AFTER 21/22Z. OTHERWISE ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOP WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SPINES.

THE PREVIOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORCAL COAST IS
PHASING TOWARDS AN OPEN WAVE AS A DEEPER LOW OVER BRITCOL RELOADS
THE MEAN LONG WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SAID SHORT WAVE WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE PACNW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DISPLACING THE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED AXIS EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW ALLOWING DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. H7
PROGS NOTE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAT WILL THEN SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AREA OF WEAK LIFT...MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FORM ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH...AND GUIDANCE IS TRENDING MORE IN
LINE REGARDING THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A REMARKABLY CONSISTENT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN OUT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.

THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DRY OUT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT LINGERING MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND REPLACED BY DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE ONLY REAL
FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE WORK WEEK IS WHETHER A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IDAHO.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT COOLING...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE
SWITCH OCCURS AS LATE AS 21Z. ANY OTHER WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL...WITH POTENTIAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER LIGHT WINDS TODAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AND AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. COMBINED WITH LOWERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...THE FUELS IN
MOST ZONES ACROSS THE STATE ARE NOT CONSIDERED CRITICALLY DRY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...&&

$$

MERRILL/VERZELLA/SCHOENING


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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