Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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633
FXUS65 KSLC 280321
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
921 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will prevail over the Great Basin this
week. A weak disturbance moving around the high will bring an
increase in moisture to the region starting Tuesday and lasting
through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft remains centered over srn Ut
this eve with a hot mostly dry airmass in place over the CWA. Many
areas approached or reached record highs today with the 100 at
Cedar City breaking theirs and the 101 at SLC falling just 1
degree shy.

Moisture has begun to creep northward at mid and upper levels with
clouds and some weak radar returns in place across the srn CWA.
The heat was sufficient to generate just enough instability for a
few weak cells to form in the aftn over the Uinta mtns and this
eve over the higher terrain of e-central NV. Debris clouds from
this latter area are forecast to spread across the nrn CWA
overnight, but the chance of rain reaching the ground from any of
this activity remains near zero, and tonight`s pop grid reflects
this.

A weak short wave trof is apparent on water vapor satellite
imagery across sern Ca and swrn Az. This feature brought the
increase in moisture to Az that is poised to spread into Ut on Tue
as the mean layer high center retreats ewd and the short wave
lifts slowly n.

The initial round of convection across central/srn Ut Tue is
expected to be dry with gusty winds and lightning the main threat.
There is a potential for strong gusts tomorrow afternoon, as it
has already had a history of doing this across nwrn Az late
today.

Models do maintain the short wave as it tracks around the
periphery of the high over the next several days crossing nrn Ut
during the day Wed then drifting back s thru ern Ut on Thu, then
stretching out across srn Ut Fri. This should keep convection
active across the CWA with storms becoming wetter after Tue.

Updated earlier to raise sky cover over the south and west
tonight. No additional updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...Light winds at the SLC terminal will become
predominately southeasterly by 04z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture will increase northward across the
southern two thirds of the area tonight through tomorrow
increasing the threat of high based convection and largely dry
thunderstorm activity. With this, critical zones across central
and southern Utah now have a Red Flag Warning for lightning after
an extended dry period bringing an increased threat of multiple
fire starts.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for Fire
     Weather Zones UTZ489-492-494-495-497-498.

WY...None.

&&

$$

Wilensky

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