Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 230957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
357 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough moving north through northern
Utah will exit the state this morning. A gradual warming and
drying trend will take hold across the region as high pressure
aloft returns to the Great Basin later in the week.


.SHORT TERM (Until 06z Sunday)...The remnant of the upper low
along the southern California coast should dissipate over the
next couple of days. High pressure aloft will slowly rebuild
across the Great Basin, leading to a warming and drying trend
through the short term forecast period and beyond.

The shortwave that ejected out of the coastal California upper
low reached northern Utah overnight. Convection associated with
this feature has weakened and become less organized over the past
couple of hours. This feature will exit the state later this
morning with dynamic subsidence inhibiting convection through much
of the afternoon. Differential heating later today could spawn
showers/storms over the higher terrain, though suspect the areal
coverage will be isolated at best from this subsequent convection.

For Thursday and beyond a gradual warming and drying trend will
take hold as high pressure aloft returns to the Great Basin.
Temperatures will come in at or above normal across the entire
area the next several days. Strong daytime heating and sufficient
lingering moisture should be able to generate isolated terrain-
based convection each afternoon/evening heading into the first
half of the upcoming weekend.

.LONG TERM (After 06Z Sunday)...The main story of the long term
portion of the forecast will be an amplifying ridge over the West,
which will bring very warm temperatures and relatively dry
conditions to the CWA through midweek next week. This pattern...more
reminiscent of the heart of summer...will keep temperatures a bit
above normal through the end of the month.

The only real hope for any precipitation through midweek next week
will be as mid-level moisture increases slightly Monday into
Wednesday. This may allow a few weak showers or even a thunderstorm
over the normally favored locations such as Boulder Mountain and the
western Uintas.  Main point: August will end with above normal
temperatures and dry conditions for the lions share of the CWA.


.AVIATION...Showers continue to move across northern Utah. A passing
shower cannot be ruled out across the SLC terminal area through the
morning, with the possibility of a brief period of gusty and/or
erratic winds. Expect mainly southerly winds to shift to the
northwest between 19-20Z.


.FIRE WEATHER...The upper trough moving north across northern Utah
this morning should exit the state later this morning. The
critical fuels status in zone 479 (Wasatch mountains) is of some
concern as dry lightning remains a possibility this morning. For
now have opted to not issue any highlights as this activity should
exit the area shortly.

A general drying trend will begin from the south later today, and
continue over the next several days as high pressure aloft slowly
strengthen across the Great Basin. Enough lingering moisture will
remain across the state to support afternoon/evening terrain-
based convection the next several days. The areal coverage of
this convection will be limited with little chance at wetting
rains. Temperatures will also climb a bit, with readings running
at or above normal across all fire districts well into next week.





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