Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 301654
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1054 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. A SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS UTAH EARLY THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER SW WYOMING NOTED IN SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS CURRENTLY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT
AND VERY DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING A SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS FROM HEBER TO THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND POINTS NORTHEAST.
HAVE NOTED CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS GREATER THERE DUE TO WARM WATER RELATIVE TO THE
LAND...BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE LAND/LAKE
INTERFACE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ON SHORE. FLOW ALOFT NOW
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT SUBTLE MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EXISTS FROM CENTRAL UTAH TO ROUGHLY THE INTERSTATE 80
AREA.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS NEARLY AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN
BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY
DUE TO LACK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD. 12Z KSLC RAOB MEASURED
1.32 INCHES PWAT FOCUSED AT AND BELOW H5. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
NEAR TO LOW 60S NORTH...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SOUTH. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COME EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT COINCIDES WITH FRINGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD. STORMS DOWN SOUTH WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR SHOULD
BEGIN AS TYPICAL AIRMASS TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN BEFORE
GRADUALLY EAST WITH FLOW ALOFT.

UPDATED EARLIER TO LOWER MAX TEMPS MANY AREAS IN THE NORTH AND
EAST DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER...TRENDED TEMPS MORE
TOWARDS RAW GUIDANCE AS BIAS CORRECTED HAS BEEN MUCH TOO WARM OF
LATE. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY WASATCH FRONT THROUGH CASTLE COUNTRY
AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AID TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA NOTED IN WATER VAPOR WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE
AREA LATER TOMORROW AND BE OVERHEAD TOMORROW NIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO AID CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. A STRONGER UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS ON TAP LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

OUTSIDE OF TODAYS ACTIVITY FOCUS OF SHIFT WILL BE HONING IN ON
THOSE TWO PRIMARY FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE. NEEDLESS TO SAY QUITE
ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THINGS QUIET DOWN AS THE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO SET IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
SLC TERMINAL. CIGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE THAT LEVEL BY 18Z...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THOSE
CIGS STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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