Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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592
FXUS01 KWBC 290717
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

VALID 12Z THU SEP 29 2016 - 12Z SAT OCT 01 2016

...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MEANDER THERE FOR A
WHILE.  COOL CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS LOW WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.  IT
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE WELL TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.  THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, A STRONG SURGE OF DEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WRAPPING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO PENNSYLVANIA AS
IT INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE REGION.
RAINFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.  HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOP REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS, AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.  FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MANY OF THESE AREAS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
PLEASANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EXTENDING WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GOVERNING THE WEATHER PATTERN.  ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., MODEST
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAMRICK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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