Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 311834
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VALID 00Z MON SEP 01 2014 - 00Z WED SEP 03 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

...A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL OUTSIDE THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES A STRONGER THAN NORMAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPANNING FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, DEEP SOUTH, SOUTHERN PLAINS,
INTO THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE BULK OF THE LOWER 48.

A COUPLE SYSTEMS PROGRESSING AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE ALOFT SURFING
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
OUT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES, WHERE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER
IS ALSO PRESENT WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.  VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT WITHIN THIS REGION TO ALSO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS PER THOUGHTS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

OUT WEST, BEHIND A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LABOR DAY.
THIS SHOULD BE THE ONLY SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER, AS PIECES OF WEAK ENERGY IN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

DOWN SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS, EYES ARE WATCHING A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA, WHICH IS
FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND APPROACH NORTHEAST MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.  THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING INTO THE REGION ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
WHICH MAY LEAD TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY
ONWARD, THE DEGREE OF WHICH IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE SYSTEM`S
ORGANIZATION AND FUTURE TRACK.  SEE THE LATEST 5-DAY GRAPHIC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM`S CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED TRACK.

ROTH/MONARSKI


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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