Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 272009
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

VALID 00Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 00Z SUN AUG 30 2015

...HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING  ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
MIDWEST...

...COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST TO BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING WARMTH AND RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST...

...THE FIRST REAL AUTUMNAL COOL SURGE CURRENTLY OVER ALASKA WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND WILL HELP BRING
RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE
FORECAST...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY YIELDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA,
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, NORTHERN IOWA AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER IN THE EAST UNDER A BUBBLE OF COOLER AND
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND INTO FLORIDA.  AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE PARTICULARLY BY SATURDAY, THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS LIKELY.

WHILE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STILL YIELD MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, ROCKIES
AND INTERMOUNTAINS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST, A LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE CHARACTERISTIC
OF AUTUMN IS ALREADY GEARING UP OVER ALASKA AND NORTHWESTERN
CANADA AS MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND CANADIAN WEST COAST.  IN ADDITION, A POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT HEAD TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING GENERAL RAINS TO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY.

KOCIN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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