Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 302053
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
453 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VALID 00Z WED JUL 01 2015 - 00Z FRI JUL 03 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...

...HEAVY RAIN AND STORMY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...HOT AND DRY FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...


A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
SETTING OFF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THOSE REGIONS, ALONG WITH THE DEEP
SOUTH, IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE PROVIDES AID FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND THE THREAT TO DWINDLE
BY TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER, LINGERING
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.
LOOKING AT THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TRAVELING ALONG THE RIM OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY SUNSET WILL DIMINISH.  THESE POP-UP
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST/DEEP
SOUTH STATES ON WEDNESDAY TOO.

THE BEGINNING OF JULY WILL BE MARKED BY A STORMY PERIOD FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY; THIS WILL
BRING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON WEDNESDAY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD, THE AXIS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NONETHELESS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE FOR THE
PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE ROCKIES, THERE IS A CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. EVEN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO REMAIN DRY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, UNFORTUNATELY,
SHOWS NO HINT OF BREAKING DOWN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THUS, EXPECT THE DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE.


FANNING


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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