Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 292033
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 00Z THU JUL 30 2015 - 00Z SAT AUG 01 2015

...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
U.S...

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S...


THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH, A HIGH AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE JET STRUCTURE WILL HELP
CARVE A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST, THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
AND EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES.

THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR NUMEROUS AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR CALIFORNIA AND OREGON.
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A VAST AREA, SPANNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID/DEEP SOUTH, HAVE HEAT ADVISORIES AND
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105
DEGREES IN SOME OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS.

PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, AS WELL AS, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR
THIS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WELL-PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE U.S. WHILE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN IN TIME AS THE BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS INTO CANADA, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ACCOMPANY AS THE FRONT PASSES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR THE GULF COAST. PERIODS
OF MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
SECTOR OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. WPC IS CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING A BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THIS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


CAMPBELL/RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$




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