153
FXUS01 KWBC 091928
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Thu May 09 2024

Valid 00Z Fri May 10 2024 - 00Z Sun May 12 2024

...Broad area of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
severe weather and flash flooding continues Thursday evening
across the Southeast/Southern Plains...

...Storm chances linger along the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic
through Florida Friday...

...Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected along the
central/southern High Plains, with snow for higher elevations of
the central Rockies...

...Well above average high temperatures forecast for portions of
California and the Pacific Northwest heading into the weekend...

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday
evening and into early Friday morning ahead of a frontal boundary
pushing southeastward through the Southeast, Lower Mississippi
Valley, and Southern Plains. A broad Enhanced Risk of severe
weather (level 3/5) from the the Storm Prediction Center is in
place for the threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes, as
well as very large hail for locations further west across the
eastern half of Texas. In addition, the combination of multiple
rounds of organized storms passing through the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast, and the prospect of robust thunderstorms with
intense downpours over Texas, has prompted a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for the same region, with some scattered flash
flooding possible. Additional storms will also continue in the
post-frontal airmass further north across the Midwest/Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic as an upper-level wave passes by. Some locally
heavy rainfall will be possible here as well. The front will
continue southeastward Friday morning, with the focus for showers
and storms shifting towards the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic
south to Florida. The threat of some damaging winds will remain
possible with storms across southern Georgia and the northern
Florida Peninsula/Big Bend Region, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of severe weather continuing through Friday. Storms should come to
an end through Friday evening for most locations as the front
pushes eastward off the coast except for areas of South Florida.
Another upper-level wave/surface frontal system dropping
southeastward from Canada will bring another round of some light
to moderate showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest Friday
afternoon and Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Friday evening. Storm
chances will spread into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday.

To the west, the frontal boundary responsible for the storms over
the Southeast/Southern Plains will also bring a continued chances
of showers and storms along the central/southern High Plains and
into the adjacent Rockies as the boundary lingers through the
region. Most lower elevation areas will see light to moderate
rainfall, though some heavier showers will be possible heading
into later Saturday evening for portions of west Texas, with some
isolated flash flooding possible. Higher elevations of the central
Rockies in Colorado along and east of the Continental Divide will
see accumulating snowfall through Friday, with some locally
heavier totals of 6-12" possible. Precipitation chances should
linger through at least Saturday evening, the end of the current
forecast period.

Unsurprisingly, temperatures will tend to be below average across
much of the eastern/central U.S. and into the central/southern
Rockies following the passage of the cold front. Forecast highs
Friday-Saturday range from the 50s and 60s in New England and the
Mid-Atlantic west through the Great Lakes, with 60s and 70s
southwest through the Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley and
into the Southern Plains. Highs will remain warmer ahead of the
front across the Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley into southern
Texas on Friday, with 80s generally expected, before temperature
drop for most locations into the 70s Saturday following the
frontal passage. In contrast, upper-level ridging along the West
Coast shifting northeasterly across the northern-tier of the
country will bring well-above average conditions. Highs in the 80s
and even low 90s will be possible from central California
northward into the Pacific Northwest, with some
record-tying/breaking highs possible for a few locations. While
not quite as hot, temperatures will be above average through the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with generally 70s
expected.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$