Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 210745
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

VALID 12Z THU SEP 21 2017 - 12Z SAT SEP 23 2017

...TROPICAL STORM JOSE WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...

TROPICAL STORM JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY WELL OFF NEW ENGLAND`S
COAST OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD--ALTHOUGH ITS AFFECTS WILL STILL
BE FELT.  HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE WESTERN EDGE OF JOSE WILL IMPACT
MAINLY SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS EACH DAY.  IN ADDITION, DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD FOR
THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.  FOR THE MOST CURRENT
INFORMATION ON JOSE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(WWW.HURRICANES.GOV).

ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN--WITH PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWING BEHIND IT.  RAIN ALONG WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED.  SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THESE REGIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS, LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL LINGER IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST--ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN ADDITION TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, LIGHTER SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  ON FRIDAY,
DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE TRANSPORTED AHEAD OF
THIS LARGE TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR SETTING OFF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGIONS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS--WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO EXTREME WEST TEXAS.  SEE THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IN ADDITION, THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS/AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


REINHART


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$





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