Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

000
FXUS01 KWBC 170800
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 17 2024 - 12Z Fri Apr 19 2024

...Severe weather and isolated flash flooding for the Lower Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley Wednesday; threat shifts to the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains Thursday...

...Moderate to locally heavy mountain snowfall continues for the
northern Rockies...

...Warm to hot temperatures in the South and Desert Southwest;
chillier weather for the northern Rockies/Plains...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue with a low
pressure/frontal system moving into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Wednesday. Some storms are also expected along a warm front
lifting through the Mid-Atlantic. Sufficient shear and buoyancy
will be present from eastern Indiana east through Ohio into far
western Pennsylvania for some more organized clusters/lines of
storms capable of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the threat of large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. An isolated threat for flash
flooding will exist across the region as wet antecedent conditions
could lead to some issues despite rainfall amounts likely not
being particularly high. Storms should taper off over the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday morning while continuing into the
day for the Mid-Atlantic as the frontal system pushes towards the
East Coast.

Further west, another region of showers and thunderstorms is
expected in vicinity of a trailing cold frontal boundary from the
eastern system and ahead of another cold front pushing
southeastward through the Plains/Mississippi Valley. The first
round of storms is expected late Wednesday and into the early
morning hours Thursday over portions of the central Plains. A
narrow corridor of severe thunderstorms capable of producing some
large hail has been highlighted with a Slight Risk over
northeastern Kansas into west-central Missouri. The cold front
will continue further south and eastward on Thursday with showers
and storms expected from the Middle Mississippi Valley
southwestward through the Mid-South, Ark-La-Tex, and into the
Southern Plains. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be
over portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, with a Slight Risk
in place for another threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes. A second Slight Risk of some large hail and
damaging winds is also in place ahead of the cold front over north
Texas. Some locally heavy downpours may lead to some isolated
instances of flash flooding across the region as well.

Areas of moderate to locally heavy snow will continue for higher
elevations in the northern Rockies Wednesday, tapering off into
the day Thursday. Winter weather-related Warning and Advisories
are in place for total accumulations of 6-12", with locally higher
amounts up to 18" possible, particularly into Wyoming. Otherwise,
the remainder of the country is expected to remain mostly dry.
Temperature-wise, conditions will remain warm to even hot for some
locations across the southern tier of the country. Forecast highs
from the Southern Plains east through the Lower Mississippi Valley
and Southeast will be in the mid- to upper 80s, with some 90s
possible over the Southeast and in Texas. Highs in the Desert
Southwest will be well into the 90s. Conditions will be more
variable from the Central Plains east through the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic due to frontal
boundaries passing through the region. With 50s and 60s more
likely further north and 70s and 80s more likely further south. To
the north, cooler temperatures will be in place from the Great
Lakes into New England with highs in the 40s and 50s. The coldest
temperatures over the next couple of days will be in the Northern
Rockies/Plains, with highs mainly in the 40s. Forecast highs along
the West Coast range from the 50s and 60s in the Pacific Northwest
to the 70s and 80s in California.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$