Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 250748
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
348 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The local area will be dominated by weak ridging today as an upper
level low continues to move east of the area and a new trough digs
into the southern plains. Mostly sunny skies are expected today with
highs ranging from the upper 70s along the coast to the low to mid
80s inland.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

An upper level short wave in the southern Plains will swing
northeastward into the Ohio valley by Thursday afternoon. At the
surface, a frontal system will develop and push across the lower
and mid-Mississippi valley Wednesday night and move into the
southeast on Thursday. Dynamics for this system will be pulling
north as the system approaches our area and models showing the
linear MCS out ahead of it will likely fall apart by Thursday
night. However, with SBCAPE up around 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear
around 30 kts, and 0-1 km shear of 15-20 kts in our southeast AL
counties Thursday afternoon, we cannot rule out the possibility of
severe weather. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the
main threats, although an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The frontal system will dissipate Thursday night as it lifts
northward, so the area will remain under zonal flow aloft and
southerly Gulf flow at the lower levels through the weekend.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s in the
afternoons and chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
around 20% with isolated thunderstorms. Our next frontal system
will come Monday as a strong +PV anomaly and associated cut off
upper level low move from mid-upper Mississippi valley into the
Great Lakes. This will bump up chances for showers and
thunderstorms Monday, as well as bring cooler temperatures
Monday/Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the period with westerly
winds generally near or below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds from the south will increase to 15 to 20 knots Wednesday
night ahead of an approaching frontal system and seas will
increase to 3 to 5 feet. This system will dissipate and lift north
Thursday night, so winds will continue to be mostly from the south
through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
through the remainder of the week, precluding any red flag
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Thursday`s system is not expected to produce more than a half inch
to inch of rain across the area. There are no flooding concerns at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   83  57  83  62  84 /   0   0   0   0  20
Panama City   78  66  77  70  79 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dothan        83  59  84  64  84 /   0   0   0  10  60
Albany        83  59  86  62  85 /   0   0   0   0  50
Valdosta      82  56  85  59  85 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    81  57  81  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  62  79  67  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Moore



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