Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 220717
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
317 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A weak pressure pattern surface and aloft will be in place across
the region now that the upper low has moved to the northwestern Gulf
coast. The mean 1000-700mb flow will be moderate (<10 kts) from the
southwest with forecast PW`s near 2.0". This sea breeze regime (4)
supports higher PoPs over our Florida zones (50-60%) from late
morning to early afternoon, with convection expanding northward into
our lower tier GA and AL zones (40%) by mid to late afternoon. Highs
will be around 90 for the Florida zones and lower to possibly mid
90s will be more common across SE AL and our GA zones where a later
start and less convection is expected. Max heat indices will be
around 103.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Flat ridging aloft tonight will give way to a deepening East Coast
trough Sunday-Monday as a shortwave trough moves across the Great
Lakes area and trailing energy moves through the Mid South. This
will induce Lee troughing down the Appalachians and keep surface
winds locally from a westerly component. Moisture remains
plentiful with PWATs of 1.8-2.1 inches this period. The net result
is more of the same summer pattern. Coastal and northern Gulf
streamer showers/storms overnight to seabreeze activity during the
day. Highs will be in the lower 90s with lows in the mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Even though the Great Lakes trough continues moving eastward
Tuesday and central US ridging strengthens mid week, leftover
energy will deepen the east coast trough further with indications
of a cut off low over the Carolinas Wednesday/Thursday and
troughing stretching into the northern Gulf. There are no
indications of moisture being scoured out and PWATs remaining high
so rain chances will continue to run around normal through the
long term period. Highs will be in the 90s and lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight, with some brief
patchy fog possible in the early morning at VLD but no significant
visibility restrictions are anticipated. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon, but any reductions
in visibility should be short-lived. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate winds and seas will prevail through the next few
days. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely between
midnight and noon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A typical summertime scattering of storms is not expected to
produce any river flooding. Isolated minor flooding could be
possible in urban locations under slow moving storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  74  90  74  90 /  50  20  50  20  50
Panama City   87  78  87  78  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
Dothan        91  74  91  75  90 /  40  20  40  20  50
Albany        93  74  91  74  90 /  30  20  40  20  50
Valdosta      93  73  91  73  90 /  30  20  40  20  50
Cross City    90  74  89  74  89 /  50  30  50  20  50
Apalachicola  87  77  88  77  88 /  40  30  40  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Pullin


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