Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 250110
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
910 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ONCE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES OUT OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA IN THE
COMING HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING...A QUIET NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP.
HIGH CLOUDINESS AND A WEAK EASTERLY BREEZE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 OVER THE FAR INTERIOR COUNTIES...MIDDLE 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]...VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INLAND TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CEILINGS/SHALLOW GROUND FOG OR HAZE AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR
70 F. A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELING DID NOT INITIALIZE
VERY WELL...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONVECTION MAY FOCUS
OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS EARLIER IN DAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST AND
IMPACT MORE EASTERN HUBS LATTER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A LIGHT EASTERLY MORNING BREEZE VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MID TO LATE DAY MIXING DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 5
THOUSAND FEET MONDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE EARLY TUESDAY
CLOUD COVER...AND POSSIBLY MORE ACTIVE AREAWIDE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...MAY LOWER OVERALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTHS TO
GENERALLY UNDER 4 THOUSAND FEET. ON MONDAY...DISPERSION WILL BE THE
HIGHEST MONDAY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MAINLY DUE THESE SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MIXING DEPTHS AND A STRONGER VERTICAL WIND PROFILE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [358 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL AMPLIFY ON MONDAY BUT
THE FEATURE WILL NARROW AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
EDGES EASTWARD. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH, WILL INCREASE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT
TWO AFTERNOON, TAPERING TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL EXERTING SOME
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WEAK
RIDGING WILL RETURN ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NOSING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.


.MARINE...
ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH WINDS BACK TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WEAKER SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS.


.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. HOWEVER, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  90  73  88  71 /  10  30  20  40  30
PANAMA CITY   74  86  72  86  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
DOTHAN        71  89  70  87  69 /  20  50  30  60  40
ALBANY        70  89  71  87  68 /  10  40  30  50  40
VALDOSTA      71  91  72  89  69 /  10  30  30  40  30
CROSS CITY    71  92  72  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  30
APALACHICOLA  76  86  74  86  74 /  20  20  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP



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