Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 200217
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
917 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...

Forecast remains on track for a cool and dry night. No changes
needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [629 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A cold airmass will settle over the region tonight in the wake of
this morning`s frontal passage. Guidance is in good agreement that
lows will drop into the mid 30s tonight. A few normally colder
location could briefly approach freezing. With the center of the
high progged to be a little to the north, the boundary layer may not
fully decouple, which will limit the potential for widespread frost.
However, patchy frost is expected in sheltered and normally colder
locations.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

In the upper levels a trough will move into the Central U.S.
including the Southeast by Tuesday morning. At the surface high
pressure will be over the Southeast until Tuesday morning, when a
low begins to form in the Gulf. As a Gulf Low develops POPs will
increase by Tuesday morning. The best chance for rain will be near
the coast and in Big Bend Florida with POPs in the 50 to 70 percent
range. Elsewhere POPs will be in the 20 to 40 percent range on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Highs will be in the 60s on Monday and in
the upper 60s, lower 70s on Tuesday. Lows will be in the 40s and
lower 50s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels a trough will be over the Southeast throughout
this forecast period. At the surface high pressure will be over
much of the Southeast. However a Gulf Low is expected to develop
nearby and move through Central Florida. POPs will be elevated
through Thursday night, mainly for Big Bend Florida and South
Central Georgia (30 to 50 percent POPs predicted). Elsewhere POPs
will be lower around 20 percent. Highs will be in the 60s. Lows
will be in the 40s.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

VFR conditions through the period. Northern winds tonight will
become easterly on Monday.


.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until late tonight as
strong northerly winds continue. Winds will become moderate and
easterly tomorrow morning. Strong winds will be possible again
Wednesday night through Thursday night.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from low dispersions in north Florida Monday, no hazardous fire
weather conditions are expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rain chances are increasing this week as a low is expected to
develop in the Gulf. 2 to 2.5 inches of rainfall is predicted near
the coast. 1 to 1.5 inch is expected farther inland. River flooding
is not expected since river levels are still low.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   37  66  50  70  54 /   0   0   0  50  30
Panama City   41  64  52  69  56 /   0   0  20  40  30
Dothan        34  63  45  67  48 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        35  64  46  69  49 /   0   0   0  20  30
Valdosta      35  66  50  71  54 /   0   0   0  50  40
Cross City    38  70  54  73  56 /   0   0  10  70  50
Apalachicola  41  64  56  70  58 /   0   0  20  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening
     for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Nguyen
NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...McD



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