Area Forecast Discussion
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752
FXUS62 KTAE 202020
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
320 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level shortwave will swing across the southeast tonight,
but impacts will be limited from this system. The main impact will
be an increase in cloud coverage this evening and tonight with the
clouds quickly clearing around sunrise. Although some guidance tries
to produce a few showers as the system moves across the area, the
chances are low (10% or less), but can`t be ruled out. Temperatures
tonight will drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A +PV anomaly currently aloft of the west coast will swing eastward
into the Plains Sunday night, generating a surface low pressure
system that will then sweep eastward. This system will bring showers
to the southeast Monday through Monday night. SBCAPE will be very
low, 200 J/kg or less, so any thunderstorms would be pretty
isolated. With that said, models are also showing 0-6 km shear
around 40-50 kts, which could allow some marginally severe wind
gusts to occur in those isolated thunderstorms. Our best chances for
storms will be Monday evening to Monday night, however, when
instability will be waning, so the threat appears pretty minimal for
our area at this time.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The low pressure system will continue moving off to the east, with a
few showers possibly still lingering in our eastern zones Tuesday
morning. Behind the front, temperatures will be near normal for this
time of year, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Our next
chance of rain will be next weekend after a weak +PV anomaly over
central Mexico helps develop a low in the western Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. The one
exception is the potential of smoke at TLH overnight into the
morning but will best with be handled with a tempo group closer in
time. Winds will be light from the northeast to east with calm winds
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Wind speeds will increase Monday ahead of a frontal passage and
remain elevated for the next several days in its wake. Seas will
build to 3 to 5 feet over coastal waters west of Apalachicola Monday
night, then will lower to 2 to 4 feet by Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Storm total rainfall for the upcoming frontal passage Monday night
is expected to remain below a half inch, will not cause any
flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   38  72  48  69  54 /   0   0   0  20  50
Panama City   44  66  53  69  53 /   0   0   0  30  60
Dothan        41  69  50  72  46 /   0   0   0  30  60
Albany        41  69  48  70  51 /   0   0   0  20  60
Valdosta      39  70  47  73  56 /   0   0   0  10  60
Cross City    41  72  47  75  56 /  10   0   0  10  50
Apalachicola  44  66  52  68  54 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen



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