Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 061423
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1022 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The large occluded upper low continues to move northeastward off the
Southeast U.S. coast. Another upper low is spinning over
southeastern California with a ridge in between over the Central and
Southern Plains and much of the Southeast. The 12Z KTAE sounding
shows a deep inversion in the 950-700 mb layer. The depth of the
saturated layer within the inversion has decrease over the past 24
hours. Still, there appears to be enough to maintain a cloudy to
most cloudy sky across the forecast area for much of the day with a
gradual thinning of the cloud layer. Perhaps we will finally see the
sun break through by 21Z or so. If this late-day scattering of
clouds occurs, we will reach our forecast highs in the upper 70s.
Winds have dropped below exercise caution levels and the headline
has been removed. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 kt
through the end of the week. The winds also become easterly by
.Prev Discussion [322 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
A trough is positioned off to the east over the Atlantic with what
is left of the closed upper low that was positioned over the
Southeast for a few days. With this off to the east, will start to
see a decrease in the cloud coverage as the better deep layer
moisture shifted eastward. As weak ridging builds in for Wednesday,
the GFS continues with the decrease in clouds for a mostly sunny
day. The NAM Bufr soundings are a little more pessimistic with
clouds Wednesday afternoon, but have leaned towards the drier, lower
sky coverage GFS solution. The situation is similar for Thursday in
terms of the clouds.
NAM indicates the potential for precip Wednesday night across the
Southeast part of the CWA while the ECMWF tries to hint at activity
over the marine area Thursday afternoon. With weak ridging though
and lack of deep layer moisture, have continued with no mention
of precip in the short term.
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Ridging will weaken across the CWA as a cold front pushes through
over the weekend. Although the moisture is not impressive with the
front, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the potential for some
precipitation with the front so have shown 20% PoPs at this point,
a little higher than the model blend. Both models are in good
agreement with developing a weak upper low on the tail end of the
front over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend. With
this upper level low slowly moving towards the northeast, the
potential for precip across the southeastern part of the CWA will
linger through the remainder of the long term.
[Through 12Z Wednesday] Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs, and even some
patchy -DZ/BR (with MVFR Vis) will gradually improve mid to late
morning. Cigs will improve to VFR levels from west to east from late
morning through mid afternoon, followed by clearing skies by evening.
Red Flag Warning conditions are not expected for the next several
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce has crested and the river level
will continue to decrease over the next few days. The river should
fall below action stage on Friday.
Elsewhere rivers remain well below action stages and with little or
no rainfall expected over the next few days, there are no flooding
concerns across the region.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 79 62 85 62 86 / 0 10 0 0 10
Panama City 78 64 83 65 83 / 0 10 0 0 10
Dothan 79 61 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 78 59 83 58 84 / 10 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 78 62 84 61 86 / 10 10 10 0 10
Cross City 81 64 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 77 66 82 65 83 / 0 10 0 0 10