Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 060755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
255 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

...Severe Weather Remains Possible Through the Morning...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Mid level shortwave trough, currently located over the ARKLATEX,
will generally move northeast and weaken today as it reaches the
Northern Appalachians by this evening. Surface low pressure across
southern Mississippi will lift northeast this morning allowing the
warm sector to move northward ahead of a fast moving cold front from
west to east. Severe weather is still a possibility this morning
ahead of the cold front in the warm sector where an isolated tornado
and strong wind gust threat will remain possible.  The cold front
will be across our SE AL and western FL panhandle counties at 12Z
and have cleared our eastern and southeastern counties by 18Z and
taking the precipitation along with it. Behind the front, a few
hours of breezy west winds with skies clearing out. Highs mainly in
the 70s with the exception of SE AL where upper 60s is likely.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The cold front will be pushing off the Atlantic coast by the start
of the period leaving us with a period of dry weather for a couple
of days. While it will be cooler behind the front, temperatures will
still be above normal for this time of year. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area with highs in
the mid 60s north to lower 70s in the Big Bend on Wednesday. For
reference, normal lows and highs at TLH for December 7 are 42 and
67. The next cold front will sweep across the region on Thursday.
There is a slight chance of showers with this front, but it will
bring in a shot of cooler air with highs Thursday ranging from the
upper 50s in Southeast Alabama to the mid to upper 60s across the
Big Bend.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The front will usher in the coldest air mass of the season thus far
with a brief light freeze possible across our northwestern zones by
Friday morning and all areas dipping into the 30s. Highs on Friday
will only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s and that will set the stage
for a longer-duration freeze Friday night. Lows by daybreak Saturday
will range from the mid to upper 20s north to around 30 across
inland areas along and south of I-10. Coastal areas will bottom out
in the mid 30s to around 40. Temperatures will then moderate over
the weekend as high pressure moves east of the area. Look for a
return to above normal temperatures by Sunday with the approach of
the next front bringing a return of rain chances for Sunday night
and Monday.


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]...

Degraded flight conds the next 6 to 12 hours as IFR/LIFR conditions
continue with waves of showers and thunderstorms moving through the
tri-state region. Conditions will improve from west to east mid
morning through early afternoon as a cold front sweeps through and
takes the rain and low cigs with it. A return to VFR is expected in
the afternoon hours but MVFR conds look to return after 00z at all
terminals with high low level moisture in place.



We are still expecting winds and seas to nose up into small craft
advisory criteria this morning for our western legs and remain there
through much of the day as winds shift to the west. The existing
advisory has things pretty much in hand. The westerly winds will
shift to the north overnight and fall below headline criteria. Winds
and seas will then remain low until a cold front brings in much
colder air and increases offshore winds easily above advisory
criteria Thursday night into Friday morning. Winds will then drop
below cautionary levels by Saturday morning.



A moist airmass and recent rainfall will preclude fire weather
concerns over the next few days.



Radar estimates and observations show widespread 2-day rainfall
totals of 6-8 inches extending from the Florida Panhandle up into
extreme Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia. Additional rainfall
today should be less than an inch in most areas. The rain has
largely been beneficial having fallen into an area stricken by
extreme drought conditions. Most of the impacts so far have been due
to ponding and poor drainage with some road closures. The
Choctawhatchee River is now forecast to reach flood stage at
Caryville and Bruce, but not for a few more days. The Shoal River at
Mossy head is forecast to crest just below flood stage later today,
but will need to be closely monitored. Same for the Chipola at Altha
which is sharply rising and could approach flood stage on Wednesday.



Tallahassee   77  52  70  48  66 /  70   0   0   0  10
Panama City   72  53  66  51  63 /  50   0   0   0  20
Dothan        70  49  64  46  59 /  50   0   0   0  20
Albany        75  50  66  46  61 /  70   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      78  52  70  47  65 /  80   0   0   0  10
Cross City    78  51  72  49  69 /  80   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  74  54  68  52  66 /  60   0   0   0  10



FL...High Rip Current Risk from 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning
     through this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.



GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM...Scholl
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