Area Forecast Discussion
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325
FXUS62 KTAE 300057
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
857 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...

The forecast remains on track this evening, as scattered showers
and thunderstorms continue to decrease in coverage across the
area. Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms continue to develop
and linger around the coastal counties and marine zones at this
hour, with coverage not expected to increase inland due to
increasing stability from earlier convection. Made minor tweaks to
the POP grids for this evening to highlight what is currently
happening along the coast and in the marine zones. Otherwise, the
forecast is in good shape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [313 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A weak trough axis remains situated across the region this
afternoon with an associated front draped across the southern half
of GA/AL/MS. This, coupled with an increase in deep layer moisture
today (PWATS generally ranging from 1.9 to 2 inches area wide) and
forcing from the seabreeze are yielding widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the region at this hour. This activity is
expected to gradually spread northward this afternoon and continue
into the evening hours before tapering off. The lack of deep layer
shear available today will make locally heavy rainfall a threat,
with 1 to 2 inches of accumulation possible with the strongest
storms. Little changes to the grids were warranted, as a large
area of likely POPS were already highlighted for this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Weak shortwave will round the base of the large scale trough on
Thursday. With plenty of moisture in place, this feature will help
to enhance showers and thunderstorms across most of the forecast
area on Thursday continuing into Friday. Expect an early start to
the activity along the Panhandle coast Thursday morning, spreading
inland through the day. Highest PoPs will be painted along the
I-10 corridor. Temperatures should be cooler than the past several
days, with many areas not getting out of the 80s. The upper trough
will continue to impact the weather on Friday, with the best rain
chances shifted slightly eastward along I-10.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The long term begins with the Eastern CONUS upper level trough
retreating and being replaced by a building ridge. With a frontal
boundary lifting back to the north, rain chances will be returning
to a more typical seabreeze pattern. With a deep, moist airmass in
place (PWAT near 2 inches), forcing from the seabreeze should
initiate chance showers and thunderstorms across the area. Rain
chances will be greatest during the afternoon hours, decreasing
overnight with the loss of heating. Inland highs in the low to mid
90s, lows in the low to mid 70s. Coastal highs in the upper 80s,
lows in the upper 70s.


.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the
region this afternoon, with all TAF sites expected to be affected
at some point this afternoon. Gusty winds and reduced vsby,
perhaps briefly down to IFR will be possible under thunderstorms.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with thunderstorms tapering off
later this evening. Light patchy fog is not out of the question
tonight, particularly in and around areas that receive rain this
afternoon.


.MARINE...
Generally light to moderate south to southwest winds are expected
over the coastal waters through the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over the next
several days, becoming more isolated towards late weekend and
early next week. Isolated areas of up to 2 inches of rainfall will
be possible over the coming days. No widespread flood concerns are
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  88  74  90  74 /  20  60  20  60  30
Panama City   79  84  78  86  77 /  40  60  30  50  30
Dothan        73  87  73  89  73 /  20  50  30  50  20
Albany        73  90  73  90  73 /  20  50  20  50  20
Valdosta      73  89  73  90  73 /  30  60  20  60  20
Cross City    76  91  75  92  75 /  30  40  20  30  20
Apalachicola  80  86  78  89  78 /  30  50  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pullin
NEAR TERM...Pullin/DVD
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp/Bennett
AVIATION...Pullin/DVD
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Camp



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