Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS62 KTAE 231025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
625 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

VFR through the period with dry conditions and light northeast



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Northwest mid level flow continues as the height center moves into
the central Gulf of Mexico allowing surface high pressure to build
and slide across southern Alabama allowing our surface winds to
shift to the northeast today. High temperatures today will be around
normal to slightly above normal with readings in the mid to upper

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
High pressure will remain in place across the region tonight
allowing for another chilly night with low temperatures likely to
drop into the lower 40s. Some of the guidance has pockets of upper
30s, but this seems unlikely.

By Monday, as the high pressure area weakens and the airmass
continues to slowly modify, temperatures will be on a warming
trend through the end of the short term period with highs in the
low to mid 80s and overnight lows generally in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement that high
pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic States on Tuesday
night, which will result in an increase in easterly flow across
the region that will continue through Thursday. This will return
plenty of low level moisture, and also result in overnight lows
warming into the mid to upper 50s.

While there were some differences in the 22/00z cycle with respect
to a trough moving across the Eastern CONUS on Thursday/Friday,
that is no longer the case this cycle, with the 23/00z GFS
back in good agreement with the 23/00z Euro, showing a moisture-
starved system moving across the Southern US on Thursday, and a
dry cold front clearing our forecast area by Friday afternoon.
Given the lack of any deep layer moisture, will keep PoPs out of
the forecast with the passage of this system. Temperatures will
remain above climatology in this portion of the forecast.

At the end of the period, high pressure will build in from the
north, but with no significant intrusion of cooler air, a
continued stretch of dry and warm conditions will prevail through
the coming weekend.

Winds will weaken later this afternoon as high pressure builds
over the marine area. Winds and seas will remain low through
Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, high pressure over the Mid Atlantic
will tighten the pressure gradient over the marine area and result
in at least cautionary winds at times from Tuesday night through
Thursday morning.

Red flag warning is in effect this afternoon for the eastern Florida
panhandle counties north of the immediate coast due to relative
humidity values falling to 20 to 25 percent and energy release
components values of 38. Dry air will remain in place over the
next several days with light winds. Depending on the ERC values
Monday...additional red flag warnings may be needed across
portions of the Florida panhandle.

With no rain in the forecast for the next several days, there are
no flood concerns.



Tallahassee   79  43  83  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   76  53  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        79  46  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  44  84  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      77  44  82  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  44  81  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  53  79  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0



FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 6 PM
     EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.




NEAR TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.