Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 020643
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
243 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
With high pressure in place over the southeast still, the sea-breeze
will be the main driver of Tuesday`s weather. The 1000-700 mb flow
is light and variable, making it a regime 1 sea breeze day. This
pattern typically has isolated offshore convection in the morning
and then convection mainly focused in north Florida in the
afternoon. With the east coast sea breeze expected to make its way
into our area again in the late afternoon, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be higher in our south central Georgia counties
as well. Local CAM guidance is forecasting an area of higher
instability in the eastern Big Bend, with CAPE values nearing 3000
J/kg in the afternoon. The CAM are showing the potential for higher
updraft velocities in this area as well. Some of the thunderstorms
this afternoon may have strong, gusty winds with them, particularly
in the eastern Big Bend region. Highs today will be seasonably warm,
in the mid to upper 90s.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Upper level high pressure will continue to weaken as a TUTT moves
west from the Bahamas across South FL on Wednesday. This feature
will then weaken on Thursday. Easterly low to mid level flow will
continue to favor evening convection across our eastern zones until
around midnight and the potential for isolated strong storms will
also linger. More uniform convective coverage is expected on
Wednesday with PoPs generally 30-40, or near climo. Similar
conditions are forecast for Thursday. Temps will remain a couple
of degrees above normal overnight with afternoon highs some 2-4
degrees above climo.
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Although the synoptic pattern will be dominated by weak Upper Level
ridging throughout most of the extended period, the positioning of
the Bermuda High pressure system at the surface will still allow for
an ample supply of deep layer moisture to advect in from the
southeast. Additionally, the Upper ridge is expected to weaken and
retrograde westward over time, which should trend daytime PoPs at or
even above climo levels (generally in the 30-50% range). While high
and low temps are not expected to be nearly as warm as they have
recently been, they should still average above climo, with highs
generally in the lower to a few middle 90s, with lows still in the
lower to middle 70s.
[Through 06Z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period with brief MVFR conditions possible Tuesday with
afternoon thunderstorms, which are expected everywhere except DHN.
A ridge of high pressure will remain north of the waters keeping
winds light and out of the east or southeast most of this week. Of
course, the sea breeze will veer the winds to onshore each afternoon
and evening near the coast.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
this week, preventing us from reaching red flag criteria. &&
Rivers in Georgia/Alabama remain very low, with a few points
potentially reaching record low levels in the next couple of weeks
if the unusually dry conditions continue. Rivers are not quite as
low in Florida, although with any heavy rainfall remaining highly
localized this week, river flooding is not expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 96 73 94 73 94 / 50 40 40 20 30
Panama City 91 77 92 76 91 / 30 20 30 20 30
Dothan 97 73 95 73 95 / 20 20 40 20 30
Albany 97 73 95 73 94 / 30 30 40 20 30
Valdosta 95 72 94 71 93 / 40 40 40 20 30
Cross City 94 72 93 71 93 / 40 40 40 20 30
Apalachicola 91 76 91 75 90 / 30 20 30 20 30