Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 270036
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
836 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

DWINDLING CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
OVER OUR OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT
ASHORE ACROSS THE BIG BEND OVERNIGHT, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA, AND BE AS WARM AS
THE LOW 70S ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT ECP AND TLH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [343 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE, THOUGH IT
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION. A TROUGH
(CURRENTLY OVER AZ) WILL WILL TRANSLATE EAST TO A POSITION NEAR
MEMPHIS, TN, LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW, A
FRONTAL WAVE, WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST, TO A
POSITION NEAR DOTHAN, AL, LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING ASCENT
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE THERMODYNAMICS MAY NOT BE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY AND WARM FRONT
TO GENERATE RAIN IN OUR REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT
WE WILL STILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY COOL SIDE OF A POLAR FRONT, SO
SURFACE-BASED STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY OVER LAND. AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES SLIGHTLY INLAND (IF IT DOES) WEDNESDAY, SOME OF OUR FORECAST
AREA COULD GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND ECMWF
FORECAST A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUS IT`S UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL STILL BE THUNDERSTORMS COINCIDENT
WITH THE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY FINALLY GET SOME MORE TYPICAL APRIL
WEATHER...IN EARLY MAY. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXITS EAST OF OUR REGION LATER THIS WEEK, OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER DRY, SINKING AIR; WITH N-NW WINDS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80, LOWS IN THE 50S, AND MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY.


.MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND RATHER
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, AND INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS, AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN AFTER THE PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS COMES TO AN
END BY MIDWEEK, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.


.HYDROLOGY...

AN EL NINO-LIKE PATTERN HAS RENDERED A WETTER-THAN-NORMAL APRIL
FOR THE AREA, WITH SEVERAL OF OUR AREA RIVERS REACHING ACTION
STAGE AND EVEN A FEW THAT REACHED FLOOD STAGE OVER THE PAST WEEK.
ONLY TWO SITES REMAINED IN FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME, THOUGH BOTH
HAVE PEAKED AND CONTINUE TO FALL- THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT
BRUCE AND THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE SUBTLE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS, COMBINED
WITH THE EXPECTED FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE GULF LOW, WILL HELP
PREVENT QPF VALUES VALUES FROM BEING "EXTREME". WE EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IS UNLIKELY
TO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OR CAUSE LARGE, RAPID RISES ON AREA
RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  84  65  80  65 /  20  30  30  50  30
PANAMA CITY   71  79  67  78  68 /  30  40  40  50  20
DOTHAN        63  81  61  77  60 /   0  20  30  40  30
ALBANY        62  81  60  76  59 /   0  10  30  30  30
VALDOSTA      65  83  63  77  62 /  20  20  30  50  30
CROSS CITY    69  84  64  79  66 /  30  30  30  60  30
APALACHICOLA  73  80  69  78  69 /  40  30  40  60  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MOORE/FOURNIER



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