Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 280720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
320 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The midnight surface analysis showed a high pressure ridge across FL
and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a large outflow boundary (from
numerous clusters of thunderstorms) extending from western NC to the
AK-OK border. Upper air data showed a rather flat area of higher
heights across much of the Southeast, and the air in the would-be
cloud updraft zone (850 mb to 500 mb) over our forecast area was
still very dry, despite a substantial moistening of the near-surface
layer in the last 24 hours. The consensus of CAMs and latest HRRR do
not bring the aforementioned outflow boundary far enough south to
trigger new thunderstorms today, so we expect another fair weather
day with warm temperatures (highs in the lower 90s). Unfortunately
the increase in surface humidity will make it feel warmer than what
we experienced the past few days.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

An upper level trough will reside across the central CONUS
throughout this period with an intensifying jet streak on its
southeastern flank likely over the Ohio River Valley. Our area
will remain south of the strongest dynamics from this feature, but
multiple shortwaves could move across our northwestern areas
Monday and Tuesday. This could enhance chances of showers and
thunderstorms along with a surface front drifting southeastward on
Monday and likely stalling across our area on Tuesday. With
strongest forcing and highest moisture content (PWAT values over
1.5") in our northwestern areas, chances of showers/storms will
be highest there, tapering off to slight chances around
Tallahassee and near the Gulf Coast. Temperatures during this
period will be seasonably warm to hot, with inland highs ranging
from the upper 80s to lower 90s each day and lower to mid 80s
along the coast. Lows will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The upper level trough mentioned in the short term discussion will
slowly move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday and
Thursday, again with most associated dynamics remaining to our
north as zonal flow prevails over our area for the remainder of
the week. However, a quasi-stationary front will remain draped
across our area through Friday before drifting north as a warm
front during the weekend. This forcing, along with deep layer
moisture remaining around average for this time of year, will
result in low-end chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the remainder of this period. Chances will be highest
during peak heating times (afternoon and early evening) each day
when instability is maximized. Temperatures will remain nearly
unchanged from earlier in the week, with inland highs in upper 80s
or lower 90s each day and lower-mid 80s along the coast. Overnight
lows will continue to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across
our area.


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

The consensus of NWP models and MOS continues to forecast
widespread IFR cigs and MVFR Vis across our forecast area
overnight through early morning, and recent satellite imagery and
surface obs seem to confirm this forecast. IFR cigs (at all
terminals) will gradually lift through MVFR, then VFR levels mid
to late morning, followed by VFR conditions by this afternoon.
Light SW-W winds tonight will become W-SW 10 to 15 KT by late



Southwest winds generally from 10 to 15 knots and seas from 1 to 3
feet are expected to prevail from today through Monday. From
Tuesday through the remainder of the week, light variable winds
and mostly smooth seas are expected.



Moderate transport winds and deep mixing may drive daytime
dispersion values to near or above 75 this afternoon. Otherwise
there are no fire weather concerns.



Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our
area from Monday through the remainder of the week. However, any
heavy rain should be localized and short-lived. As a result, no
widespread flooding concerns are anticipated and rivers are
expected to remain below flood stage at this time.



Tallahassee   91  70  91  68  91 /   0  10  20  10  30
Panama City   82  73  82  71  85 /  10  10  20  10  20
Dothan        91  72  88  69  87 /  10  10  40  30  40
Albany        92  71  90  69  90 /   0  10  30  30  30
Valdosta      92  70  92  69  91 /   0   0  20  20  30
Cross City    89  71  91  69  92 /   0  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  85  73  85  71  86 /   0  10  20  10  20






NEAR TERM...Fournier
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