115
FXUS62 KTAE 150548
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
148 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The main change to tonight`s forecast was to update rain chances
based on current trends. Convection struggled all day to redevelop
thanks to a persistent outflow channel of cirrus clouds fanning
out from a decaying Gulf MCS. As such, PoPs were trimmed down this
evening to chance/slight chance with the best potential across
the Forgotten Coast into the FL Big Bend. After midnight, the
convective potential increases in response to an approaching front
from the west. The latest HRRR favors initiation around 6Z over
Apalachee Bay in a SW-NE oriented cluster or band that extends
into the Suwannee Valley. Pockets of heavy rain, gusty winds, and
lightning are likely to accompany this activity.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Through this evening an upper level overcast cloud deck is moving
north across the region from an MCS to our south in the Gulf. This
cloud deck is looking to limit the development of any storms later
as direct diurnal heating is cut off. A developing Cu field to the
west, which in the models evolves into showers and possibly some
storms later, looks to be dissipating as the overhead overcast
reduces instability. It`s possible the models are overdoing the
convection or under-doing the cloud cover. However, with dew points
back into the upper 60s and low 70s, there remains a possibility for
some showers in any area that maintains a break in the clouds. A
thunderstorm or two could be possible as well. There is low
confidence in widespread coverage this afternoon and evening.

Once we get into tomorrow morning some redevelopment could be
possible along the cold front, primarily across the FL Big Bend and
southern Georgia as forcing for ascent is provided by the front. The
front is expected to clear our region by noon with mostly clear
skies expected tomorrow afternoon.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A needed break from severe weather is forecast through the
middle/later part of the upcoming week as the local area will be
under an approaching upper level ridge into Thursday night. At the
surface, west to northwest flow will prevail and temperatures
warm up for Thursday afternoon as high temperatures climb into the
upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Strengthening southwesterly flow moves into the region beginning
Friday and into upcoming weekend as moist southerly flow brings a
return to instability across across the region. Timing of any
specific severe weather threat still remains uncertain and much of
that has to do with the weak impulses that will be embedded in
the southwesterly flow driving the severe threat. The first
shortwave approaches southern AL/MS by daybreak Friday and while
much of the severe threat with this is likely to stay off to the
west and northwest as it lifts north of the forecast area, we`ll
need to monitor how the mesoscale details evolve later into the
week. Instability will be hard to come by in the morning hours of
Friday, but that could change through the day with afternoon
heating and additional moisture advection from the Gulf. For now
severe weather is generally not expected but upstream MCS
potential will need to be monitored as we approach Friday.

After Friday the trough continues east with widespread showers and
thunderstorms likely as several disturbances move through Friday
night into Saturday. The evolution of these showers/storms, and
if any storms can attain greater organization, is rather
uncertain but with modest instability and 40 to 50 knots of deep-
layer shear, some storm organization is possible which could bring
more severe weather to the region. Continue to monitor conditions
through the week.

Northwesterly upper level flow sets up for Sunday and into early
next week, likely allowing things to dry out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

There were some minor changes to the TAFs with this update as
stratus has started forming along and west of the Flint and
Apalachicola Rivers. Opted to hint or bring in MVFR cigs to most
TAF sites, with the possibility of IFR cigs being possible. The
other area that was updated was the removal of VCTS from KTLH and
KVLD as confidence was quite low in that happening this morning.
Especially since some of the guidance has trended that activity
farther south. An area to keep an eye on is the convection just to
our north along the I-65 and I-85 corridor over AL. If this holds
we may need to add VCTS or TS to KDHN and perhaps KABY over the
next few hours. Later this morning after sunrise, any cig
restrictions that have formed should improve to VFR and then hold
through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a nearly 20-kt sustained
SSW wind earlier this evening with 4-ft seas and a dominant period
of 5 sec. Meanwhile, the Cedar Key Station CYF1 has been reporting
SSW winds around 20 kts with a recent gust of 26 kts. Overnight
forecast hourly winds were increased over the waters to account
for these observations that seem to be in response to a decaying
storm complex passing just due south of Apalachee Bay. Such
changes are also better in line with the existing Small Craft
Advisory that is in effect until 12Z.

From CWF Synopsis...Maritime convection is still expected to
redevelop overnight ahead of an approaching front, especially
across Apalachee Bay, which likely keeps advisory to near advisory
conditions in place until just after daybreak on Wednesday.
Benign conditions move in for late Wednesday and Thursday before
another system moves through over the weekend likely bringing
advisory level winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A frontal system will be moving across the region over the next day,
behind it we`ll have elevated winds leading to high dispersions
tomorrow and Thursday. Additional rainfall through tomorrow is
expected to generally be confined to the FL Big Bend and Southern
Georgia. A few light showers could pop up across SE Alabama later
this afternoon and evening. Given the recent wetting rains that have
occurred over the last few days, there are currently no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Evening riverine update: A Flood Warning was issued for Withlacoochee
River - Valdosta Skipper Bridge, which is currently in minor
flood stage. The latest forecast shows cresting tomorrow, then
falling into action stage by late Thursday or early Friday.
Ochlockonee River - Thomasville was excluded from an issuance as
the forecast to barely above minor flood may be a bit overdone.

Rivers along the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins are rising
due to rainfall from the past 4 days and some will reach minor
flood stage through the middle of the week. Other rivers in the
region are slowly climbing but reaching minor flood stage is not
expected at these rivers. Additional rainfall is forecast this
weekend and this could bring further rises on area rivers or
extend the time in flood later this week. Rainfall amounts
generally will be around 1 to 3 inches, with the heavier amounts
across Georgia and Alabama but wouldn`t be surprised if we see
some of these higher amounts shift south.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   88  67  91  68 /  10   0   0  10
Panama City   84  69  86  72 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        86  63  88  68 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        85  64  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      87  66  88  67 /  20   0   0   0
Cross City    85  68  88  67 /  50   0   0   0
Apalachicola  83  72  85  73 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs