Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 230757
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
257 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An extensive area of light rainfall has spread across the
southeastern half of the forecast area at this hour, as a surface
low pressure system over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico continues
to strengthen and slowly move east-northeast. An advancing
shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery at this hour,
and will play a role in lifting the aforementioned surface low
northeastward through the day, with drier and cooler air filtering
in across the region late in the period. Shower activity is
expected to remain light through the period, with brief pockets of
moderate rainfall in any areas of localize convergence. Rainfall
totals will generally peak between 1 to 2 inches through tonight,
with those amounts most likely being realized across the eastern
Big Bend. All other locales will likely see up to an inch or less
of accumulation through tonight. Given extensive cloud cover and
ongoing rain, diurnal swings will likely remain around 10 degrees
or less, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s expected.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Light rain will come to an end from west to east across the
eastern Big Bend and south-central Georgia as the surface low and
associated warm front move into the western Atlantic tonight. In
the wake of the shortwave responsible for the Gulf low
development, another shortwave will move into the Southeast
Friday night and through the Tri-State region on Saturday. Due to
the lack of abundant low-level moisture and little to no surface
forcing, expect only mid/high level cloudiness as this shortwave
moves through the region. Under the eastern CONUS longwave trough,
and with the presence of at least some cloud cover both Friday and
Saturday, expect highs to be at or just a degree or so below
seasonal averages. Abundant cloud cover combined with light winds
tonight will keep lows a bit above normal. Expect lows to range
from the upper 40s across southeast Alabama, up to the middle 50s
across the southeast Big Bend. Clear skies and calm winds on
Friday night will allow lows to fall into the middle 40s region-
wide.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will begin to lift out of the Southeast
on Sunday, with zonal flow aloft and low-level ridging prevailing
by the start of next week. By mid-week another frontal system will
approach from the west, though rain chances appear quite low for
the time being. Highs and lows will generally be seasonable
through the period, though afternoon highs have a better chance of
being above normal starting early next week.


&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

Light RA has spread across portions of the region at this hour,
with ECP, TLH, and VLD currently seeing the worst conditions.
Expect conditions to decrease overnight to MVFR to perhaps IFR at
most TAF sites, as CIGS decrease. Any pockets of moderate RA will
likely briefly decrease conditions and vsby, particularly at TLH
and VLD through mid-morning. A gradual improvement in conditions
are expected from west to east this afternoon, with conditions
returning to VFR at nearly all TAF sites by this evening/tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

In general, northeasterly winds will remain just below Advisory
conditions through today. Cautionary conditions will continue
through tonight before winds and seas calm heading into the
weekend. Rain should come to an end late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions not expected over the next
several days. Chances for wetting rains will be high today before
drier conditions move into the area for the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

On average, 1-2" of rain will be possible across the southeast Big
Bend today. Isolated higher amounts likely won`t top 3". After
tonight no rain is expected until mid week next week. Even then,
QPF looks like it will remain low. Flooding is not a concern over
the next week or so.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   68  52  69  46  71 /  70  20  10   0   0
Panama City   68  54  68  52  69 /  20  10  10   0   0
Dothan        65  47  67  45  68 /  20  10   0   0   0
Albany        64  47  66  45  69 /  30  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      65  50  65  46  70 /  80  40  20   0   0
Cross City    67  55  67  47  71 / 100  60  30   0   0
Apalachicola  70  55  68  53  70 /  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST this morning through late
     tonight for Coastal Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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