Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 200710

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
310 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Mainly dry conditions are expected through the early morning hours
as showers across SW Georgia have mainly dissipated and moderate
values of surface-based CIN along with weak instability should
prevent much redevelopment. Chances of showers and thunderstorms
will gradually increase across our area later this morning into the
afternoon as instability increases. Highest chances should be across
the FL Panhandle where the most deep layer moisture will be present;
PWAT values are expected to increase to around 2.0" in this area
during the afternoon and early evening. Also, an upper level
shortwave approaching from the west may provide some forcing to
enhance coverage of showers & thunderstorms across the Panhandle and
parts of SE Alabama during this time. Highs will range from the
upper 80s to lower 90s inland, with mid-upper 80s along the Gulf

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

A rather complex atmospheric scenario will take place in the short
term and into the early part of the long term period. A strong
upper low and deepening trough will slowly move across the
northwest and dig southward into Baja California. In response, an
elongated skinny ridge will set up from Texas northeast to the
Great Lakes. A mid level low will pinch off from mid level
shortwave energy to the west of TS Jose and retrograde southwest
into the southeast US. Then there are the two tropical cyclones
off the east coast. Rain chances will primarily be driven by the
seabreeze front and perhaps additional weak forcing by the mid
level trough. Rain chances are between 30-40% each afternoon.
Highs will be in the upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

A high over low blocking pattern will set up over the weekend
which will slow the progress of the western US trough and hold for
Hurricane Maria which is progged to move northward east of the
eastern seaboard. The blocking pattern will breakdown Monday
allowing shortwave ridging to build in temporarily ahead of the
western US trough. Rain chances Saturday will continue at 30-40%
but will decrease beginning Sunday as the high pressure builds and
PWATs decrease. Temperatures will slowly increase as well, perhaps
nearing the lower 90s by Wednesday.


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]...

MVFR cigs are currently ongoing at ECP but should dissipate
within the next couple of hours. Patchy fog/low clouds could
develop at DHN and ABY during the early morning hours, but any
fog or low clouds will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Scattered
showers & storms are possible during the afternoon, with highest
chances at ECP, decreasing chances north and east. Any visibility
reductions will be brief; VFR conditions will generally prevail.



Light winds and low seas will prevail through the end of the work
week. This weekend, as hurricane Maria crosses the Bahamas and
into the Gulf Stream, easterly winds will increase as a result.
Expect moderate winds and seas beginning Saturday.



No fire weather concerns are anticipated during the next few days
due to high RH values and light winds.



Rainfall over the next few days will average generally one half
inch or less. The Suwannee River has crested in Action stage and
a slow fall is anticipated. Therefore, no flooding concerns are
expected this period.



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   91  72  89  71  88 /  40  20  40  20  30
Panama City   85  74  87  73  86 /  30  10  40  20  40
Dothan        90  70  90  70  87 /  30  20  30  20  30
Albany        91  71  90  69  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
Valdosta      90  70  88  69  87 /  30  30  40  20  30
Cross City    91  70  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
Apalachicola  88  73  86  73  85 /  30  10  30  20  30




LONG TERM...Scholl
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