371
FXUS62 KTAE 131413
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1013 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

No updates to the forecast were made this morning. The development
of storms will likely be slightly later than usual and mostly in
the later parts of the afternoon given the ridging in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The main concerns today will be the heat and the chance of a
stronger storm or two this afternoon. Upper level ridging will
remain in place across the region today with light northerly flow
providing a suppressed seabreeze pattern. This is expected to allow
temperatures to reach into the mid to upper 90s across most inland
areas today. Dewpoints will mix out somewhat, but blending in some
of the lower dewpoint guidance still yields heat index values near
108 across our Florida counties and the first row of Georgia
counties, so we`ll go with a heat advisory in those areas for this
afternoon.

In terms of thunderstorms chances, although the best chances will be
confined to Florida along the suppressed sea breeze with light
northerly flow, DCAPE values are at least moderate today, so any
storms that do develop could be on the strong side with gusty winds.

For tonight, conditions will remain quite muggy with overnight lows
in the mid 70s for most inland locations and upper 70s to near 80
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

KEY MESSAGES:

-Heat Advisories are likely needed again, especially across our
Florida and southern Georgia Counties, Monday and Tuesday. Heat
indices will generally top out between 105 to 112 across the region
with the highest readings expected across Florida.

-Turning wetter for the second half of the week. A plume of moisture
arrives by mid-week, helping to increase rain chances and decrease
temperatures.

-Tropics: The plume of moisture is thanks to a broad area of low
pressure forecast to move westward across the northern Gulf. There
is a low (20%) chance of tropical development over the next 7 days.

Aloft, an H5 ridge overhead will continue to lead to above normal
temperatures. 850mb temperatures of 21C to 23C means daytime highs
will be pushing the upper 90s to near 100 degrees again Monday and
Tuesday; the highest readings are currently forecast across our
northern Georgia counties where drier air takes hold.

By mid-week, a piece of vorticity will break off from the mean flow
off the Carolina coastline and sag southwest to west across Florida.
This will lead to precipitable water values (PWATs) nearing or
exceeding the 90th percentile for mid-July moving over the region,
which results in better than normal rain chances Wednesday and
beyond along with daytime highs nudging back closer to 90.

On the tropics front, the National Hurricane Center has maintained a
low (20%) chance of tropical development somewhere over the
northeastern Gulf. This is thanks to the aforementioned vorticity
maxima rotating over the region Wednesday through at least Friday.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system as it moves west across the northern Gulf. An H5 ridge
building across the Carolinas should push whatever is in the Gulf
westward, which is indicated in some of the latest ensemble and AI
guidance. Still, it is something we`ll carefully monitor over the
coming day. Either way, heavier rains and rougher beach conditions
are a concern as we head into the second half of the upcoming work
week, tropical trouble or not.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A typical summertime regime of seabreeze convection is expected for
this afternoon with the best chances from ECP to TLH and lower
chances north and across the other TAF sites. Outside of
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

High pressure over the central Gulf will bring a light to moderate
northwesterly wind to the coastal waters today and Monday. Showers
and thunderstorms remain possible, especially in the mornings, with
waterspouts possible.

A trough of low pressure moves through the northeastern Gulf by mid-
week, allowing winds to turn more northeasterly Tuesday and
southeasterly to southerly by Wednesday and Thursday. The chance
that this develops into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is 20%
through day 7. The main concern at this time is increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms, which may lead to locally higher winds
and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will be in place for the
next several days with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal outside of gusty
and erratic winds near thunderstorms along with lightning and
pockets of heavy rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected the next
couple of afternoons and evenings. The highest concentration is
forecast along the seabreeze and other leftover mesoscale
boundaries. Some storms will produce locally heavy rain that could
lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in areas
with poor drainage.

A trough/weak area of low pressure will move across the Florida
Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf Monday into Tuesday. Moisture
from this system starts to ramp up by mid-week and is expected to
linger through the rest of the work week. While there is quite a bit
of uncertainty regarding any tropical development, rainfall totals
are generally expected to be between 1" to 2" according to most
ensemble members, with the higher totals across Florida with
lessening totals the more north you head. That said, with
precipitable water values (PWATs) forecast to be nearing or
exceeding the 90th percentile, or around 2.1", higher rainfall
totals are very much in play. It`s just a matter of if higher
rainfall totals fall over land or stay over the Gulf. Either way,
we`ll continue to monitor the flood potential for later this week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  76  98  77 /  50  10  70  30
Panama City   93  79  95  79 /  40  10  40  30
Dothan        96  75  98  76 /  30  10  30  20
Albany        97  75  98  75 /  10  10  30  30
Valdosta      98  75  99  75 /  30  20  60  30
Cross City    94  75  97  73 /  60  30  80  50
Apalachicola  91  78  93  79 /  40  20  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Reese