Area Forecast Discussion
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416
FXUS62 KTAE 210704
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
304 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper level low centered over northeast Florida early this
morning will slide slowly to the west into our eastern Big Bend
zones by this afternoon. This feature along with an increase in
atmospheric moisture will bring a better chance for convection. The
mean flow will be very light and possibly variable at times so any
storm that develops will be slow movers with the potential for heavy
downpours. PoPs will be fairly uniform at around 40% across most
interior zones. Highs will be in the mid 90s inland and near 90
along the coast with max heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

An upper low/inverted trough will move westward across the
northern Gulf into Texas this period underneath upper level
ridging across the southern Plains and southeast states and atop
low to mid level ridging across the area. A slight increase in low
level moisture is expected but mid/high level drying will take
place on the backside of the upper low. Saturday seems to be
affected the most by the subsidence of the passing upper low with
Sunday back to decent moisture in the column and higher chance for
precipitation. The seabreeze front will be the main driver for
late morning through early evening convection each day.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Mid level ridging quickly builds in for Monday as a shortwave
trough moves across the Great Lakes. This will cause a deepening
to the east coast trough Tuesday and Wednesday. The trough will
support a cold front which will stay to the north but a surface
trough appears to move into the area which will turn the winds to
the northwest. This will allow convection upstream that develops
with respect to the surface trough to move into the area from the
north. Weak WNW/NW winds will continue through the end of the work
week. PoP chances will be highest Monday and Tuesday with slowly
decreasing chances afterwards.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by this afternoon
with possibly a bit more coverage than what we`ve seen the past few
days. Went with prevailing TSRA beginning between 18-20z for all
terminals except ECP which may see an earlier start as the sea
breeze develops (16Z). Winds will be light.

&&

.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail for
the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day, especially in the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Typical scattered summertime storms are not expected to cause any
flooding issues over the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   95  74  92  74  89 /  40  20  40  20  30
Panama City   90  77  87  78  87 /  40  10  30  20  30
Dothan        94  74  92  74  89 /  40  20  40  20  40
Albany        95  74  92  74  91 /  40  20  30  20  40
Valdosta      96  73  94  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  40
Cross City    94  74  90  74  89 /  40  10  40  20  40
Apalachicola  89  76  88  77  87 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Pullin



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