Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 231343
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
943 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Visible and IR satellite shows high cirrus racing across
the peninsula this morning with a low-topped CU field
beginning to develop over the interior. The 12z TBW RAOB
currently indicates a much drier atmosphere than yesterday
evening with PW of 1.30 inches. However, our southeasterly
winds will help to advect a plume of moisture our way into
our area by this afternoon. This extra moisture will combine
with seabreeze convergence to help produce isolated to
scattered thunderstorms south of the I-4 corridor. No
significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast but
did make minor directional changes to the winds to suggest
seabreeze will penetrate a bit farther inland. Likewise,
have dragged PoPs east as well to account for an isolated
t-storm this evening inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR cigs today with afternoon seabreeze
convection bringing temporary MVFR or localized IFR
conditions after 18z if convection manages to move over
airport. Confidence is higher in afternoon convection for
our southern terminals PGD, FMY, and RSW so have continued
to carry VCTS. Meanwhile, seabreeze will shift winds from
the southeast to the southwest and then west for coastal
terminals. Winds will relax overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
No major marine hazards are expected through the weekend.
High pressure will continue to dominate our area - producing
a southeasterly flow with winds taking on a south and west
component during the afternoon/evening hours as the
seabreeze forms and pushes inland. While greatest rain
chances will remain inland, typical summertime boating
precautions should still be exercised as any thunderstorm
can produce gusty winds and locally higher waves.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  91  78  90  78 /  10  20  20  10
FMY  92  75  92  75 /  50  50  40  30
GIF  94  75  93  76 /  20  10  30  30
SRQ  89  77  89  77 /  10  20  20  20
BKV  94  74  92  74 /  10  20  30  10
SPG  91  78  90  79 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...42/Norman
UPPER AIR...05/Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn


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