Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 292210
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 PM MST FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF
THE AREA WILL LIKELY BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WRN CONUS
THRU THIS WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION EARLY SAT WILL TURN TOWARD A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS UPPER
LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA BY DAYBREAK SUN.
29/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM
VERSUS EARLIER SOLUTIONS.

THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SAT. POPS WERE THEN INCREASED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN VERSUS THE INHERITED FORECAST. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXISTS SAT NIGHT...
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL RAPIDLY SUN EVENING...AND A BAGGY UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER SE ARIZONA LATE SUN NIGHT/MON. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON TSTMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE MON NIGHT-THUR NIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA BY WED...THEN MOVES EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES THUR. THEREAFTER...29/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE QUITE
SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED NEAR LOS
ANGELES CALIF MIDDAY FRI. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO POTENTIALLY IMPORT DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA.

THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE TO OCCUR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. AT ANY RATE...THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A FAIRLY
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT FRI AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE VERY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT AND COMPONENT MAY POTENTIALLY POSE
BLOWING DUST CONCERNS PARTICULARLY FOR LOCALES THAT EXPERIENCED VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES EARLIER THIS WEEK.

WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR SAT FOLLOWED BY SOME MINOR COOLING SUN.
EXPECT ABOUT 5-8 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING MON FOLLOWED BY 5 DEGS OF
DAILY WARMING TUE-WED. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SHOULD THEN OCCUR THUR
FOLLOWED BY MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING NEXT FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF KTUS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 7-11K FT AGL THIS EVENING THEN
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT
AGL BY 30/17Z. SURFACE WIND THIS EVENING GENERALLY WLY/NWLY AT 8-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS...ALTHOUGH STRONGER NWLY SURFACE WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD. SURFACE WIND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SURFACE WIND INCREASING
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...WITH SLY/SWLY
SURFACE WIND AT 15-25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AT THIS
POINT...NOT ISSUING ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS
MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
OR EVEN BRIEFLY EXCEED THEM...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NOGALES TO
SAN SIMON OVER PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES. WIND
SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. LESS WIND IS THEN
EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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