Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 281620
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
920 AM MST Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue through tonight. Increased
moisture will then bring a chance of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms mainly near the New Mexico border Monday into
Thursday. Dry conditions will return area wide next weekend. Expect
warmer than normal daytime temperatures through Tuesday followed by
modestly cooler temperatures during the latter part of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies with light winds prevail across southeast
Arizona at this time. However, gusty east winds were ongoing just
east of the New Mexico border in southwest New Mexico. 28/12Z KTWC
sounding maintained a very dry profile, and the total precip water
value of 0.26 inch was virtually identical to 24 hours ago. 28/12Z
upper air plots depicted a ridge axis extending from central
California northward into British Columbia. Meanwhile, the southern
jet branch extended from near 30N/130W eastward across northern Baja
California and into southeast Arizona.

Sunny skies will occur today from Tucson westward into western Pima
County. Meanwhile, some increase in lower and mid-level moisture
should produce at least a few high-based cumuloform clouds this
afternoon across eastern sections. Based on the 28/12Z NAM/GFS,
believe that gusty east to southeast winds across eastern sections
will not occur until after sunset this evening, or perhaps closer to
midnight or so.

At any rate, the main emphasis for today will be continued precip-
free conditions with generally lighter winds for much of the area
versus several days ago. High temperatures this afternoon will be a
few degrees warmer versus Saturday for most locales, and these
temperatures will average within a degree-or-two of seasonal normals.

There are no updates necessary at this time. Please refer to the
additional sections for further detail.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 29/18Z.
KTUS vicinity westward SKC with surface wind mostly less than 10 kts
into Monday morning. East of KTUS, clear skies this morning, then a
FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-15k ft AGL this afternoon into Monday morning.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA northeast of KSAD late Monday morning. Surface
wind generally less than 12 kts into this afternoon, then surface
wind ely/sely 8-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts tonight into Monday
morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue this afternoon with
minimum relative humidity generally ranging from 5-12 percent.
Moisture will increase especially east of Tucson tonight into
Monday. A series of disturbances aloft will then bring a chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly near the New Mexico
border Monday through Thursday. Expect gusty and erratic winds due
to thunderstorm outflows. A slight chance of thunderstorms continues
across the White Mountains Friday followed by dry conditions
returning area wide next weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /320 AM MST/...A clear sky prevailed across SE AZ
this morning while across eastern New Mexico low level moisture was
on the increase. This moisture will gradually push west across New
Mexico today into tonight and then into eastern Arizona. This added
moisture to the eastern areas will bring a slight chance of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the
mountains thru at least Thursday. High temperatures during the next
7 days will be at or above normal with the warmest days being
Memorial day and Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Francis

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