Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 061707
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1005 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
INTO NEXT WEEK. A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST
OF TUCSON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE OCCURRED THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
SOME FAVORED LOCALES SUCH AS TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAVE YET
TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. A VERY DRY REGIME WAS
ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z GENERALLY IN THE 20S. 06/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.10 INCH ALSO WAS INDICATIVE
OF THIS VERY DRY REGIME. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING WIND PROFILE DEPICTED
20-40 KT ELY SURFACE-500 MB FLOW. THE PROFILE ALSO EXHIBITED WARMING
OF 2-5 DEGS C THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. 06/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED
578 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN CALIFORNIA...AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WLY/SWLY FLOW ABOVE 450 MB.

SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS IN RESPONSE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED VIA
THE 06/12Z NAM/GFS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO SAT...THEN MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE REDUCED PRECIP
CHANCES VERSUS SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. FOR THE TIME BEING...
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST-TO-NORTHEAST OF TUCSON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE LATE SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK. 06/12Z GFS DEPICTS A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR
PATTERN MON-THUR. THE UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY NEAR THE WEST COAST MON
IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS WED...FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA THUR. CLEAR SKIES OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MON-TUE TRANSITION TO MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WED-THUR.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F OR SO WARMER ACROSS SE AZ
VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THUR. EXPECT ONLY MINOR DAILY TEMP CHANGES
SAT-MON...THEN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL FOLLOW TUE-THUR. MINIMUM
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON LOCALIZED WIND EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR SKIES THRU TONIGHT...THEN A
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS REGARDING STRONG AND GUSTY ELY/SELY SURFACE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY TODAY. EXPECT ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND AT 12-22 KTS WITH
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO AROUND 35 KTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND 07/00Z - 07/002Z...THEN CONTINUE ELY/SELY AT 5-15 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY EAST WINDS AT TIMES TODAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS/MEYER




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