Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 010358
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
858 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY FOLLOWED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING CONTINUING TO OUR
SOUTH...WITH PLENTY OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR COVERING A LARGE PART OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA...NOT
TO MENTION MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AS WELL.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 90S WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 93 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMP OF 102
DEGS...WHICH WAS 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE CURRENT
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN FEW-SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD LINE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND MOSTLY LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AT LESS THAN
10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WE
SHOULD REGAIN A DEEPER...IF NOT VERY BRISK...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
OUR FLOW. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE
MOISTURE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AND BRINGS CONVECTION BACK TO
BORDER AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPER INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM NOTED BY
NHC NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 12N IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP AND PUSH NW TOWARD THE TIP OF BAJA OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. ECMWF COVERS THAT TRACK WELL AND WOULD LIKELY PUT IT IN A
POSITION TO FURTHER ENHANCE A MOISTURE PUSH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE LIST OF SCENARIOS THAT WILL GIVE SE AZ
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD AFTER WEDNESDAY ARE PILING UP.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL






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