Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 290438
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
940 PM MST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST OF
TUCSON LATE NEXT WEEK. HOTTER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR AVERAGE AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET DAY ACROSS SE AZ WITH ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
GREENLEE..COCHISE AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
MOVED THRU THE HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS PRODUCED BETWEEN 0.33"-0.67". THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE QUIET. WILL RUN AN UPDATE TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHORTLY.

SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INCREASE OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MAY BEEN A BIT UNDERDONE. WILL LET MID-
SHIFT MAKE THOSE CHANGES.

CHECK THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE AND ALSO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR A RECORD TUCSON IS
CLOSING IN ON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
FEW-SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AFTER 29/20Z. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLD TO SCT CLOUD DECKS MAINLY EAST WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-
15K FT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND THEN CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ZONES 151...152 AND 153
ALTHOUGH EASTERN ZONE 150 MAY SEE SOME STORMS SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET AND AS IS TYPICAL MAY PRODUCE
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THROUGH SUNDAY GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS ZONE 150...
PEAKING IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO STEADILY PUSH
THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION FOR DECREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...TUCSON AIRPORT CLOSING IN ON A CONSECUTIVE STREAK RECORD.
TODAY MARKS THE 80TH STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 70
DEGREES OR WARMER. THE RECORD IS 81 STRAIGHT DAYS SET TWO YEARS AGO.
OFFICIAL NWS FORECAST HAS THIS RECORD BEING BROKEN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME WEAK NELY
SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS FROM NW ARIZONA INTO NE ARIZONA.
28/12Z UNIV OF ARIZONA WRF-NAM AND WRF-GFS WERE QUITE SIMILAR WITH
DEPICTING SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH SOLUTIONS FAVORED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON TO EXTEND GENERALLY FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY NWWD INTO
WRN PIMA COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS/TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE A GENERAL SWWD
MOVEMENT/ PROPAGATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRIMARILY BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS SAT AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST IS STILL SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED
PATCHY BLOWING DUST GENERALLY FROM FAR NW TUCSON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
PINAL COUNTY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY SAT EVENING. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SUN-MON.

THEREAFTER...28/12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST TUE-
FRI IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS HIGH
PLAINS...AND A GRADUALLY DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ADJACENT THE WEST
COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO DEPICT A GRADUAL DAILY
DECREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE TUESDAY
TO FRIDAY PERIOD. THUS...PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR THUR-FRI FROM TUCSON WWD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTINUING ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.

HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-6 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
GENERALLY A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF DAILY COOLING SUN-WED FOLLOWED BY
DAYTIME TEMPS TRENDING QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THUR-FRI.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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