Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 302115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT SYSTEM.

STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS WEAKER SYSTEM FOR AN
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
FALLING BACK A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY FORECAST
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
HIGHER MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS TO BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOWS AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SFC WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN
RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

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MOLLERE






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