Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 260923
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR AND COOL THIS MORNING...A BIT LESS WIND SO
GENERALLY RUNNING 1 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON THE
00Z KTWC SOUNDING WHERE WE HAD 6-12 DEGREES OF WARMING BETWEEN H5
AND H7. AS THE RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD WE WILL JUMP FAIRLY QUICKLY
FROM THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER THIS MORNING...DRY
AND MILD WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A VERY UNSETTLED SEASONAL PATTERN TRYING TO
SET UP FOR US NEXT WEEK. CONSOLIDATING AND THEN REINFORCED ENERGY
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...BUT THEN WHAT? DECENT CHANCE AT A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
IMPACTING MOST OF WESTERN REGION BUT IT`S NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL COME
ACROSS IN ONE PIECE. LATEST ECMWF TRYING TO SPLIT A LITTLE MORE
ENERGY INTO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THEN
SUBSEQUENTLY LOSES HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT WITH THE INITIAL SHOT
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY LEAVING THE SPLIT BEHIND.
PREVIOUS 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND A FAIR
REPRESENTATION OF CONSENSUS. WE`LL SEE IF TODAY`S 12Z KEEPS THIS
CUT-OFF OR NEAR CUT-OFF RESOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK. INTERESTING THAT
EXPERIMENTAL GFS13 TRENDS ARE ALSO TRENDING BACK TOWARD DEEPER AND
SLOWER ENERGY COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. TIMING GOES OUT THE
WINDOW IF THAT ENERGY GETS CUT OFF. SLOWING THE FORECAST A BIT MORE
BUT STILL DOMINATED BY THE PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARMER INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. OTHER THAN
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN




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