Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 292152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
250 PM MST SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak and slow moving upper level low will maintain
temperatures slightly below average through mid-week. As it passes
overhead Tuesday into Wednesday it will bring about a slight chance
of afternoon thunderstorms over the White mountains both days. There
is also a slight chance Tuesday west of Tucson. Strong high pressure
will then build over the region the latter part of the week and into
the weekend, resulting in hotter daytime temperatures with highs in
the triple digits from Tucson across the lower deserts.


.DISCUSSION...Outside of some flat high based clouds across
southeast Cochise county, abundant sunshine prevailed with daytime
highs similar to what occurred yesterday.

Slightly cooler high temperatures Memorial Day into Tuesday as the
closed upper low, currently along the southern California coast,
moves slowly east into southern Arizona. Moisture is rather limited
with this upper low, however the last three runs of the UofA WRF NAM
and two of the three WRF GFS runs develop isolated thunderstorms
west of Sells. With dry low levels, if thunderstorms do develop, the
chances for blowing dust from the thunderstorm outflows increase.
Thus added mainly dry high based thunderstorms and patchy areas of
blowing dust across central and western Pima county to the slight
chance of thunderstorms across the White mountains.

A slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms, mainly over the eastern
mountains, on Wednesday as the upper low meanders near the area. Cut
back high temperatures a few degrees.

Upper level high pressure amplifies desert southwest late in the
week into the weekend, providing the first significant run of triple
digit highs across the lower deserts this year. 50/50 on Tucson
seeing first 100 of 2016 on Thursday. In house low level thickness
study suggest 107-109 for Tucson Saturday and Sunday. Record high
for Tucson next Sunday is 108.


Clear skies through Monday afternoon except for a few clouds above
15k ft msl near the New Mexico border and especially in the vicinity
of KDUG this evening. Surface wind early this evening and Monday
afternoon will generally be sly/swly at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25
kts. Surface will be mainly less than 10 kts at other times.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will occur through Monday night. There
is a slight chance of mainly dry thunderstorms Tuesday west of
Tucson and across the White Mountains. Expect isolated to scattered
thunderstorms Wednesday mainly across the higher terrain east of
Tucson. Dry conditions will then prevail Thursday through next
Sunday, except for a slight chance of thunderstorms across the White
Mountains. Otherwise, occasionally gusty afternoon winds will occur
into next weekend due to strong daytime heating.


.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.



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