Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 222154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
254 PM MST Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will bring a few light showers later
tonight into Thursday. This system will also bring gusty winds
this afternoon and evening followed by much cooler temperatures
Thursday. Dry conditions with somewhat milder temperatures and
gusty winds at times over the weekend into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...The large ridge axis is now east of our area, with
an increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the deep trough now
onshore near the west coast. Clouds increasing from the west
through tonight. Based on the track of the low a little north of
our area, and the associated cold front now entering western
Arizona, it looks like the best chances for precip for most of our
area will be directly associated with the frontal passage
tomorrow morning. Some instability and residual moisture behind
the front tomorrow afternoon for a few showers or thunderstorms
mainly northeast of Tucson. Rainfall between a trace and .1 in
valleys with a dusting to an inch or two of snow possible above
7000 feet. Most of the significant precip should be north of our

Winds are holding nicely below advisory levels. The cooler air is
still on track behind the front tomorrow.

A shortwave ridge to end the week with temperatures jumping back
above average, but well short of what we`ve been seeing. The next
system this weekend will be a more traditional transition season
system, with wind the main concern and enough cool air to push
temperatures back down a few degrees.


.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
Cirrus level clouds will move across the area from W to E today.
Cloud decks will be lowering west of KTUS after 23/02z as isolated
to scattered -SHRA move in from the west, impacting KTUS and KOLS
after 23/09z. Prevalent conditions should remain VFR.

Surface wind SLY/SWLY at 13-20 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts through
early evening...diminishing overnight before increasing again from
the west Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds in those ranges
will be S/SE of KTUS in the vcnty of KOLS and KDUG.

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A Pacific storm system will bring a few mainly
light showers tonight followed by a chance of showers mainly
northeast of Tucson on Thursday. A few snow showers may occur
across the White Mountains northeast of Safford Thursday night.
Dry conditions will then prevail Friday into Sunday. There is a
slight chance of showers across the White Mountains next Monday.

The Pacific storm system will also bring gusty mainly southwest
winds this afternoon into tonight. The combination of strong and
gusty southwest winds and low relative humidity may create critical
fire weather conditions this afternoon across the southern one-third
of Fire Zone 152. At this point however, it looks like conditions
are holding under red flag criteria with gusty but marginal winds.

There will be some gusty west to northwest winds Thursday
accompanied by higher RH values, then less wind Friday into
Saturday. Some gusty afternoon west winds are forecast to return
Sunday and next Monday.






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