Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 221526
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
825 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Daytime temperatures will gradually increase to
record levels by Thanksgiving and into the upcoming weekend. Dry
conditions will continue into at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The easterly wind was doing it`s job this morning,
with most locations experiencing significantly (10 to 15 degrees)
warmer temperatures compared to 24 hours ago. Dewpoints however,
were generally down 2 to 5 degrees with values holding in the mid
and upper teens. The surface cold (cool-er?) front pushing in from
New Mexico will weaken throughout the day along with the easterly
winds. With the ridge continuing to move onshore from the west,
skies will continue to clear with SKC conditions likely area wide by
this evening. Prior to that, high temps this afternoon will
generally be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, with KTUS topping
out somewhere around 83, which is 12 degrees above average.
Additional warming will occur Thanksgiving into the holiday weekend.
No updates this morning. Please see the remaining sections for
further details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 23/18Z.
SCT clouds above 20k ft AGL with clearing this afternoon. SFC wind
ELY/SELY at 10-15 kts with higher gusts this morning. Wind speeds
diminishing during the afternoon hours. SFC wind generally less than
10 kts this evening into Thanksgiving morning. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected the next 7 days. Well
above normal temperatures return to the region today, continuing
through the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds will be gusty from the
southeast to east today. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be terrain
driven and mainly less than 15 mph at other times.

&&

.CLIMATE...Several web pages are headlined on our website that
pertain to the record temperatures that will be occurring during
the Thanksgiving 4 day holiday weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Upper ridge axis extending from off Baja
California north into northern California clearing visible on
infrared and water vapor imagery. High clouds continue to move
across the state on the front side of this ridge but is much less in
areal coverage versus yesterday. At the surface a back door cold
front was pushing west across New Mexico this morning. This front
will wash out before moving into the area but cooler temperatures
will move in the eastern zones today. Gusty east-southeast winds
have been occuring in the mountains where some gusts this morning
has been in the 25-35 mph range. These gusty winds will diminish
this afternoon.

Otherwise the main story continue to be the record or near record
high temperatures that will be occuring during the Thanksgiving 4-
day holiday weekend thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure over
Arizona and northern Mexico. If EC/Canadian is right may not be warm
enough this weekend. Today marks the latest date of 90 degrees for
Tucson, which occurred in 1924. Will be threatening to break this
record.

Changes early next week as a strong Pacific trof with associated
cold front moves across the intermountain west on Tuesday. Some
timing/depth differences between GFS/EC/Canadian but we are looking
at cooler readings by Tuesday. Made some downward adjustments to
high temperatures on Tuesday, but it could eventually be cooler like
near normal. Oh my. Something to watch and plenty of time to iron
out the details.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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