Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 030433
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
933 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS 4-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SUNDAY. WARMER YET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN AZ THIS
EVENING KICKED OFF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE WHITES ARE ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS FEATURE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

AFTER THE RAMP-UP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEY COME
CRASHING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TURNING WINDIER ALSO WITH FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WHICH ARE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/03Z.
SKC THRU PD...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS 8-12K FT AGL PSBL. SFC WINDS BCMG
LGT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN INTO TUE AM...THEN BCMG SW/NW TUE AFTN AT 8-
12 KTS WITH LCL GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT 20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
TUCSON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO COCHISE COUNTY
AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 150 AND 151 AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL EASILY
EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH AS WELL.
THE FUELS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL WITH GRASSES THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
   FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

$$

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


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