Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KTWC 270904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 AM MST FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak upper level low over the southwest will maintain
the cooler than normal temperatures and dry conditions into early
next week. Then high pressure will build over the region the end of
next week resulting in hotter temperatures with highs of 100 or more
forecast across the lower deserts.


.DISCUSSION...The upper trough that gave us the nice cool temps is
moving well off to the east leaving behind dry nw flow over AZ. Highs
this afternoon will jump 5-8 degrees from yesterdays much cooler
than average readings but even with that we will still end up 6-8
degrees below average for the day.

Saturday through at least next Tuesday, a weak upper level low will
develop over southern California Saturday then very slowly drift
across Arizona and into New Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This
system is fairly weak and has very little moisture to work with, thus
other than a small chance of convection over the White mountains it
will be dry through the period. This system will help to hold
temperatures to slightly cooler than average this weekend through

Then some form of longwave ridging is forecast to take place over
the western U.S. late next week into the following weekend with
significantly rising heights and thicknesses over AZ. As a result
temperatures will warm to above average levels with 100 plus readings
likely across the lower deserts west of Tucson with a shot a 100 at
TIA Thursday or Friday if current model trends hold.


A clear to mostly clear sky will prevail through the period except
sct cumulus clouds 10-12k ft agl after 27/18z over the White Mtns.
Sfc wind mostly 10 kts or less until 27/17z...then wly/nwly at 10-15
kts with lcly higher gusts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with near normal conditions expected
this weekend and early next week with lighter, more typical diurnal
20-ft winds, but still gusty during the afternoon and early evening


.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.




Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.