000
FXUS65 KTWC 160915
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. MEANWHILE...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IS AFFECTING THE WESTERN STATES...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC WATERS WELL WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
BAJA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA AT THIS
TIME...WITH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS.

MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION THAT EXTENDS
FROM JUST OFF THE NORTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY
MONDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH PAST
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUESDAY. SOME FLAVOR OF TROUGHINESS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...MAINLY
NORTH OF ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A CONTINUED
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY...THEN AROUND
7 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS AROUND 4 TO
6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY MORNING...THEN
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER.  MOLLERE

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/12Z.  CLEAR SKIES THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND N-NE 8-15 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.  WIND BECMG NW AFT
17/00Z AND EASING THEN BECOMING VARIABLE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY
17/05Z.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.  THE BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED SPOTS IN SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND GRAHAM AND EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTIES WHERE RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BEYOND TUESDAY...MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED.  CERNIGLIA

&&

$$

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