000
FXUS65 KTWC 240345
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT LESS WIND ON THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND
WARMER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING
LESS WIND TOMORROW AS ARIZONA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE. UNTIL THEN...THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC WIND BCMG LGT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SATURDAY...SO FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING THE
DAY FOR A WATCH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE POSTED WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME BREEZINESS
SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LESS WIND THURSDAY BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES EAST
OF TUCSON IN NW-SE ORIENTED VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED BELOW.

SATURDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG UPPER TROF TO SWING THROUGH THE
STATE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST...A CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED BELOW. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. SNOW LEVEL BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 6K-6.5KFT NORTH TO NEAR 9KFT
FAR SE. WET SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM TUCSON NE
INTO THE WHITES WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE WHITES.
HIGHS WITH BE 5-17 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY...WITH THE BIGGEST
CHANGES OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF TUCSON. A GOOD ANALOG YEAR THAT
WAS SIMILAR TO THE UPCOMING STORM WAS THE ONE THAT HIT THE STATE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME IN 1994

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS ENDING AS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH NEW MEXICO. MUCH COLDER AIR MASS AREAWIDE. LOOKING AT 20S
AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF
GRAHAM...COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...A LITTLE WARMER UNDER DRY/COOL NW FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARMING TREND AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE WEST COAST. ARIZONA WILL BE UNDER DRY NLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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