Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 281551
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ARE READY OFF TO A WARM START THIS MORNING. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWED A MAX TEMP OF 85 DEGREES FOR TUCSON...WHICH
IS THE RECORD FOR TODAY SET IN 1945. CURRENT FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AT 82. DON`T SEE NEED FOR AN UPDATE AT THIS POINT. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SECTIONS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/ISSUED AT 310 AM MST FRI/...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...WHICH PRODUCED A VERY WARM THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR WHAT OCCURRED
ON TURKEY DAY. A FEW SPOTS WILL ALSO BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR NOV
28TH. GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND  WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING SWLY, THIS WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE. LOW ENDS POPS LATE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GRADUALLY COOLER NEXT WEEK BUT STILL REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/18Z.
VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND
20S WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING RH VALUES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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