000
FXUS65 KTWC 202124
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
224 PM MST Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will bring strong and gusty
winds to the area Thursday into the weekend. A few showers or
thunderstorms may accompany the system, but should remain very
isolated. The system will also usher in cooler temperatures Friday,
with readings remaining below average through at least the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Westerly flow continues to bring drier air into the
region which has allowed temperatures to warm to just above normal
this afternoon. Looking out of the window and at satellite imagery,
it`s clear that the cumulus clouds are not making much progress in
the growth category. With that being said, wouldn`t expect anything
other than passing clouds through the evening hours.

The overall flow will shift more from the southwest Thursday as a
trough moves through our area. The tightened pressure gradient will
cause the breezy conditions to stick around through the rest of the
work week. Gusts of 25 to 30 MPH will be possible area-wide
Thursday, with the strongest winds likely remaining from Tucson
eastward on Friday. Models are continuing to trend drier and are
no longer indicating much moisture pushing into our corner of the
state Thursday and Friday. However, a small chance for
thunderstorms will exist in the mountains east and northeast of
Tucson.

A passing cold front won`t bring us any moisture, but will instead
allow temperatures to drop below normal for the first day of Fall as
we will struggle to reach 90 in most locations Friday. These
welcomed cooler temperatures will persist through at least the first
half of next week. Lows will likely dip into the 50`s for the
majority of the area, with 40`s being possible in some of the higher
elevations and eastern valleys beginning Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 21/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds above 7k ft AGL for KTUS to KOLS and east this
afternoon. SWLY SFC wind 12-16 kts with gusts to 25 kts continuing
through 21/02z, then diminishing to less than 10 kts. Gusty SWLY
wind 12-18 kts with gusts to 30 kts beginning around 21/16z along
with FEW-SCT clouds above 8k ft AGL. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A deepening upper trough over the western United
States will result in gusty southwest winds, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours through Saturday. The strongest winds
are expected on Thursday and Friday, with a cooling trend Friday
through Sunday. A few storms will be possible near eastern and
northeastern mountains before drying out this weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Pegram

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