Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 190955
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
253 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A series of storms will spread valley rain, mountain
snow and gusty winds over Arizona this evening into Saturday. Snow
levels will lower through that time potentially reaching the valley
floors east of Tucson by Saturday. After a break in the weather on
Sunday, another storm system is likely on Monday and Tuesday.
.DISCUSSION...A series of storm systems will impact the region later
today into the weekend and early next week. The first storm was
already bringing rain to parts of southeast California and along the
Colorado River in western Arizona early this morning. As the system
moves closer today, this band of precipitation will spread across
the rest of the state. Latest models showed this first system
passing through the Rockies tonight and into the central plains on
Friday. Right on its heels, is a stronger storm that will impact
the area Friday evening into early Saturday. Models remained in good
agreement with a heavy precipitation event materializing across
parts of Arizona, especially Friday evening into early Saturday.
Confidence was high enough to keep the Winter Storm Warning in
effect for locations above 5,000 feet in elevation. Please refer to
the product header PHXWSWTWC or WMO header WWUS45 for more details
on the Winter Storm Warning. The heavy precipitation will be
accompanied by strong and gusty winds, with the highest speeds up to
50 mph in the mountains Friday night and early Saturday. The snow
level could drop as low as 4,000 feet around daybreak Saturday
resulting in accumulating snow in the valleys east of Tucson.
Improving weather can be anticipated late Saturday and Sunday,
before yet another storm system enters the region around Monday into
.AVIATION...Valid through 20/12Z.
Cirrus clouds increasing from the west this morning, then clouds
lowering as the day progresses, with SCT-BKN 6-10k ft AGL after
19/21Z into early this evening. As a weather system moves in
tonight, MVFR conditions are possible as -SHRA coverage increases
along with BKN-OVC clouds at 3-6k ft agl mainly after 20/06Z.
Surface winds will exhibit typical diurnal trends and generally be
less than 10 kts this morning, then increasing from the southwest
after 19/20z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...A series of storms will spread widespread
precipitation across the area this evening into Saturday. Gusty west
to southwest winds are expected at times through this period
especially Friday night and across the mountains. Dry weather
returns Sunday before another storm affects the area Monday into
Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening til noon MST Saturday
Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Friday til noon MST Saturday for
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