000
FXUS65 KTWC 120345
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
844 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
MOST STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BUT
SOME WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED LATE
THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR EASTERN
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA VISTA AREA. WILL BE WATCHING TUCSON
AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN
COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WILL BE MERGING IN THIS AREA BY 10
PM MST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR VSBY NEAR +TSRA...AS WELL AS
WIND GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 35-40 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE
AROUND 8-15K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL BE WATCHING
THE INVERTED TROUGH NOW IN EASTERN CHIHUAHUA CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST.
EXPECT DEEP LAYER EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY WHICH IS NORMALLY
FAVORABLE...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES AS THAT LOWER LEVEL DRIER AIR MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUES TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WHILE WE
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON
EASTWARD...THEY WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE PUSHING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.

BY SUNDAY...MOISTURE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONGER EAST TO
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING ALL THE WAY INTO
THE WESTERN DESERTS AS WELL. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE REDUCED THIS WEEKEND AS WELL DUE TO QUICKER STORM MOTIONS WITH
PERHAPS AN INCREASED SEVERE STORM THREAT.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AN OVERALL ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK...PERHAPS TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A LOW TO MID GRADE MONSOON
PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERS ITSELF MORE OVER ARIZONA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON