Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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116
FXUS61 KALY 200619
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
119 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold nights and relatively mild afternoons with mainly dry
weather is forecast through the weekend. A low pressure system
is likely to bring periods of precipitation Monday and Tuesday,
with a variety of precipitation types possible, and some
moderate to heavy rain too.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A weak low and short wave are passing to our north across
eastern Canada early this morning. An increase in high and mid
clouds are the main impact as moisture is limited. The light
snow showers associated with these features are passing mainly
to our north. The atmosphere decoupled and temperatures dropped
off quite a bit Friday evening. Temperatures should stabilize
and may begin to rise before sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, a weak cold front crosses the region, though with
little deep layer moisture and upper-level support, expect it to
be mainly dry. Good mixing is forecast behind the front, so
expect temps to get a nice boost from downsloping. Looking at
temps above normal in the mid-30s to mid-40s, possibly a bit
higher if mixing is a bit deeper. The mixing will result in a
breezy day with westerly gusts of 30-40 mph possible over
favored northwesterly wind areas such as the Mohawk Valley and
Capital District over into the Berkshires as well as at higher
elevations. Clouds should be most prevalent in northern areas,
and over higher terrain.

For Saturday night, weak high pressure moves across the area. It
is a bit of a dirty high so there is expected to be broken cloud
cover. There is also a weak back door surface front stalled
across the northern part of the area. This front may trigger a
few light snow showers or areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle
over the Adirondacks. Clouds start to increase all areas late
Sunday into Sunday evening. Slight chance to chance PoPs are in
place late Sunday night over western areas as moisture
increases in advance of a warm front.

Highs saturday mid 30s to mid 40s. Lows Saturday night in the
20s. Highs Sunday 30s to around 40. Lows Sunday night in the
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Guidance remains consistent that a large vertical stacked storm
system will impact the region early next week. A blended model
approach which was used for this forecast. It appears the
system should occluded as it moves across the region which will
limit the degree of warming which will occur.

As the system approaches guidance indicates the low level southerly
jet should be 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Also, PWATs
are forecast to climb up 2-3 standard deviations above normal.
QPF amounts now for Monday through Tuesday are forecast to be
around an inch across the local area with the bulk of that
occurring late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Initially some light snow or mixed precipitation is forecast all
areas with little accumulation of frozen precipitation outside
of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont where around an inch of
snow/sleet may accumulate, along with a trace to a few
hundredths of an inch of freezing rain in isolated cold
pockets. Some frozen precipitation may linger into Monday night
across the northern portion of the forecast particular in the
upper Hudson Valley and across southern Vermont. With the
passage of the system colder, seasonable air will be ushered
back in with rain changing back to snow Tuesday night. In the
wake of the system will have cold cyclonic flow across the
region with some lake effect and upslope snows Tuesday night
lingering into perhaps Wednesday night.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 30s Monday and Monday night
with areas mainly along and east of the Hudson River Valley warming
into the 40s on Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday night should drop
back into the upper teens to upper 20s. Despite near seasonable
temperatures for Wednesday brisk and gusty westerly winds will
make it feel colder. Lows Wednesday night are expected to fall
into the single digits to teens with seasonable readings for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The atmosphere has decoupled early tonight at all terminals
except KALB, with BR being observed early in the TAF period.
Better chance to mix out this near-surface moisture as the night
goes on with a low pressure system tracking well north of the
area, increasing the pressure gradient over the local area. As
for cigs, just high clouds expected for the rest of the night
into the day Saturday. Saturday evening, cold advection may
result in some lower stratus at borderline VFR/MVFR levels.

LLWS will be a threat through a bit after daybreak Saturday with
winds at the 2kft level increasing to around 40 kt. Surface
winds will be light and variable for the rest of the night
(except at KALB where a 10-15 kt southerly wind should remain in
place). Winds may tend to increase slightly toward daybreak,
then become gusty in the late morning hours as wind direction
veers toward southwesterly and then westerly behind a cold front
by the afternoon hours. Gusts of around 20 kt are possible from
the late morning into the afternoon, possibly closer to 30 kt at
KALB/KPSF. Gustiness will diminish Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN...SLEET.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings, as some lingering issues continue due
to existing ice jams which have become frozen in place. A
gradual warming trend will occur into this weekend, but below
freezing temperatures are forecast at night which will slow any
melt. We will monitor trends in temperatures due to potential
impacts on existing ice jams.

In terms of precipitation, no hydrologically significant
precipitation is expected through the weekend. A period of
mixed precipitation and rain is forecast Monday into Tuesday.
this rain is expected to cause renewed river rises, which may
move and dislodge ice and possibly cause some flooding near ice
jams.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...SND/MSE



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