536
FXUS61 KBGM 130558
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
158 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sweeps through the area late Sunday with some
showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. A brief break with a
quick moving high pressure system Tuesday. However,a broad
trough of low pressure renews the heat and thunderstorm chances
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another hot and humid day in progress across the region. Typical
pop up thunderstorms should continue to occur through the
evening hours with some instability in place. As of early
afternoon, what thunderstorms we do have are fairly slow moving
due to little flow and shear.With the loss of daytime heating
the coverage should decrease after the evening hours.

Modeling is bringing a marine layer northwest into portions of
the region overnight with some slight onshore flow increasing
the low clouds with some fog formation possible as well.
Another muggy night too as a result with lows near 70.

A cold front is still expected to sweep through the region
Sunday afternoon and night. Modest instability looks to be in
place along with lift near the front for several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to develop and move through the
region. PW values indicate a very moist environment, pushing 2
inches with tall skinny CAPE profiles. Added heavy rain wording
to the forecast with this forecast package as localized urban
and flash flooding is possible due to rainfall rates. In terms
of any strong to severe storms, A bit of dry air initially in
the mid-levels may promote a few downbursts of wind but the
severe threat looks secondary at this time. Highs should get
well into 80`s with exact values dependent on the exact time of
any thunderstorm. Another muggy night Sunday night as the front
slowly shifts east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
115 AM Forecast...

Lingering showers will remain across the Catskills and Poconos
Monday evening with the front finally clearing the area by
midnight. Behind the departing trough and front, high pressure
will build in from the west. Not much relief from the heat and
humidity is expected with the ridge building in as the normal
cooler and drier air accompanied by a frontal passage from the
NW will remain trapped in Canada and will not push its way into
the NE US.

Tuesday will see westerly flow advect warm air into the region
from the central US, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Dewpoints will be in the mid 60s so the air will not feel as
oppressive as previous days, but precautions will still need to
be made if spending the day outside. The mid-level ridge axis
will slide east of the area Tuesday afternoon, which will allow
a weak shortwave to move into the Mid-Atlantic region and tap
into CAPE values between 1500-2000 j/kg across NEPA and
Catskills, kicking off some scattered showers and storms across
this area. Any showers/storms that develop should dissipate by
the evening as peak heating and instability wane.

Tuesday night, the upper trough axis slides east of the area,
bringing full SW flow through the atmosphere, advecting in an
airmass from the southern US that will push dewpoints into the
upper 60s to low 70s by the morning. NBM dewpoint guidance was
a little too high for Wed, which tends to be the case in these
setups, so blended in NBM25th% which dropped dewpoints a few
degrees and seemed more reasonable. With expected highs reaching
the upper 80s to low 90s, these higher dewpoints will push heat
indices into the mid to upper 90s for most valley locations.
Higher elevations will see values in the low 90s. Because of
this, heat advisories may be needed for Wed across CNY. To go
along with the heat, a shortwave moving through the SW flow will
kick off some scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon.
Currently, any storms that develop look to be pulse convection
that builds and dies pretty quickly given the CAPE values
between 1500-2000 j/kg with 0-6km bulk shear under 20kts and mid
level lapse rates a measly 5-5.5C. PWATs climb to around 1.5in
during the afternoon, so some of the stronger storms that
develop could produce heavy downpours. Precip should dissipate
in the evening hours as we loose heating and instability.

Temps Wednesday night will be very warm with most locations in
the low 70s. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, it will
feel quite muggy.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 AM Forecast...

A strong trough moves into the region at the end of the week
bringing scattered showers and storms on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will finally push through Friday sometime from late
morning to late afternoon. This will bring much needed relief
from heat and precipitation going into the weekend. Temps will
fall back to normal for this time of year (upper 70s to low 80s)
and dewpoints will fall back into the low 60s, making for much
more comfortable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected this evening, however there could
still be a pop up shower through sunset, but chances of hitting
any terminal is too small to add to the forecast. An MVFR to
IFR marine layer should build into KAVP and KBGM overnight.
KELM looks far enough west to where fog is the bigger concern,
so a tempo group for IFR fog was added during the early morning
Sunday.

More showers and thunderstorms should start popping up mid to
late Sunday afternoon. At this point, the coverage and timing of
these showers and storms remains uncertain and finer details
will be added at 06Z and 12Z forecasts.


Outlook...

Sunday night into Monday... Restrictions possible from
thunderstorms, mainly Sunday evening into Sunday night.

Tuesday through Wednesday night... Mainly VFR conditions with
high pressure in control. A brief thunderstorm with restrictions
can not be ruled out Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday... Afternoon and evening restrictions likely with
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...ES/MWG