Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 220526
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1226 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild air mass will continue to dominate the region early this week
with drizzle and fog tonight and Monday followed by rain into
Tuesday. Colder air is expected by mid week with additional chances
for snow showers into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 PM Update...
Forecast adjusted just very slightly, but general theme of
patchy fog-drizzle regime developing overnight still holds, with
saturated layer shallow enough to make it difficult to generate
actual measurable precipitation. Temperatures in latest model
guidance if anything appear like they will be another degree or
two milder than previously anticipated overnight, which does not
sound like much but very much restricts coverage of any light
freezing rain-freezing drizzle coverage to far northern Oneida
County. Top of low level saturated layer only gets to about 6-7
degrees below zero Celsius, casting doubt as to whether any
crystals can be introduced at all. So overall precipitation
chances will be very spotty and light, and where it falls,
primarily in liquid form. Amounts will be limited to trace to a
few hundredths of an inch at most.

Previous discussion...
Main concerns in the near term are focused around the next
approaching low pressure system from the west, the associated
precipitation types, warmer temperatures, and the potential for
resulting ice jams due to rainfall runoff and snowpack melting.

Strong cutoff upper low near CO/KS this afternoon and strengthening
surface low just to the east will eventually impact weather in
central NY and ne PA later tonight and through the day Monday. Most
of the area is situated under an overcast sky this afternoon...which
will persist through at least tomorrow. The low levels will see an
increase in moisture this evening, which will cause patchy drizzle
to develop. Most of the area will remain above freezing and keep the
drizzle as liquid, however there could be very isolated locations of
northern Oneida county and the higher elevations of the Catskills
that could see some freezing drizzle. Model guidance has really back
off on the amt of cold air near the surface...so the areal coverage
of ice is much less than the previous forecast. Only trace amts
of ice are possible.

A warm front extending east from the approaching system will lift
e/newd across the srn Great Lakes late tonight and Monday morning
which will create stronger forcing and also introduce more moisture
aloft to change the drizzle over to light rain. The cold air may
stick around in Oneida county...which would change the fzdz over to
snow with the introduction of ice crystals aloft. The duration of
snow should only be a couple hours before warmer air moves in late
Monday morning. As the warm front lifts northward Monday afternoon
and evening a dry wedge of air will advect in and allow most of the
rain to come to a brief end.

Temperatures on Monday will be a bit warmer with afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 40s...and remain steady during the overnight period
Monday night...only dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

A trailing cold front will begin to sweep in from the west/sw later
Monday evening with another period of light to moderate rain Monday
night. The location of the heaviest rain appears to be across
northeast PA and into the srn Catskills of central NY. However, it
is still a little early to determine exactly. Rainfall amounts until
7 am Tuesday morning will range from a third to a half an inch.

The combination of runoff from rainfall and snowmelt, along with
sufficient ice coverage on area rivers may lead to isolated
incidents of ice jam flooding. See the Hydrology discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front pushes into eastern NY and PA and slows as a wave
moves northeast. This will delay the cold air somewhat and allow
for a bit more rain over the eastern zones. As the wave races to
the north, front advances eastward. Cold filters Tuesday night
into Wednesday bring lake effect snow showers. Sheared flow,
and marginal delta T will result in only weak lake effect,
mainly over the NY forecast area. Temps will return to near
normal for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Large high pressure builds in for the end of the week. This will
bring us generally dry weather in the period, with seasonable
days, but chilly nights as the temps tumble under clear skies.
By Friday, ridge slides east and warm advections begins with the
upper heights build. Precipitation will hold off through the
period, although clouds will increase on Saturday as moisture
streams up from the Gulf along the backside of the high and
into the Great lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06z update... Widespread restrictive conditions will persist
throughout the valid TAF period, with plenty of low-level
moisture bringing continuous low clouds, along with occasional
light rain, drizzle, and fog.

At KBGM, KITH, KELM, and KAVP, conditions will vary between fuel
alternate required and below alternate minimums. At KBGM,
conditions may occasionally approach field minimums.

At KSYR and KRME, conditions will mostly reside within the fuel
alternate required category, but periods of IFR can also be
anticipated at KRME.

Surface winds will generally average 5 kt or less through the
morning, but will gradually increase to 5-10 kt out of the SE-S
this afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Flight category reductions continue under periods of
RA.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Possible continuation of
flight category reductions and a chance of SHSN.

Thursday and Friday...VFR under high pressure.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM



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