Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 252101
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
401 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build across the region, over the
next few days, to bring dry weather, with mild temperatures for
the end of February.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
345 pm update... The occluded front continues to swing through
CNY/NEPA late this afternoon and it should be well east of our
forecast area by early evening. Earlier showers have weakened,
as expected, and any remaining showers should be isolated in
nature over our far eastern zones through 5-6 pm.

Some clearing has worked into western NY/northwestern PA late
this afternoon, and we expect clearing skies to work their way
eastward through the evening hours, as drier air advects into
the region.

As mentioned earlier today, there`s not much cold air behind
this front, so lows by daybreak should only range from the upper
20s-mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 pm update... Sprawling high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft, will characterize the prevailing pattern
during the early part of the week. This should result in dry
weather, with above normal temperatures for the end of February,
as arctic air stays bottled up well to our north.

Under partly-mostly sunny skies by day, and clear-partly cloudy
skies by night, daily highs should range from the mid 40s-lower
50s, with overnight lows in the 20s-mid 30s.

By later in the day Wednesday, a return flow on the back side
of departing high pressure, along with increasing warm
advection aloft, should result in thickening clouds, along with
a small chance for some light rain showers or sprinkles.
However, the day as a whole, looks rain-free.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 pm update...

A storm system quickly develops over the Mid-Mississippi Valley
region Wednesday night, as two pieces of upper level energy (one
southern branch/one northern branch) begin to phase. Latest
model guidance continues to be in fairly decent agreement on the
overall strength, track and thermal profiles for this potential
storm system. However, small details will make a big difference
with who sees rain, snow and how much of each across our area.

By 12z Thursday morning, the latest guidance indicates a
negatively tilted upper level trough over eastern Iowa/N
Illinois...with a strengthening surface low just south of
Chicago. A large blocking ridge well to the north, near
Greenland (negative NAO index) will help to steer this
developing low pressure system toward our area. Precipitation,
likely in the form of rain overspreads our forecast area from
SW to NE during the day on Thursday. Cold air is lacking across
our CNY/NE PA as this system approaches...in fact high
temperatures during the day on Thursday look to be in the 40s to
perhaps even near 50 in the lower valleys. Thursday night, the
closed mid and upper level low translates east...with a surface
low redeveloping along the DELMARVA/NJ coast. By 06z Friday
models are indicating a strong, slow moving surface low around
985mb will be located between Philadelphia and Long Island. This
system will begin to drag in some colder lower/mid-level air
later Thursday night into Friday...some dynamical cooling will
also likely take place. Therefore, at this time, believe the
rain will gradually changeover to wet snow sometime Thursday
night or Friday AM...first in the higher elevations, with the
valleys of NE PA the last to see a changeover to snow (if at
all). Of course, possible snow amounts will depend greatly on
the exact track/strength/movement of this system. This is
shaping up to be another complex forecast scenario. At this
time, an accumulating snowfall is possible Thursday night into
Friday...mainly in the higher elevations of Central NY and
highest elevations of NE PA. This system will be very slow to
depart the area...with snow showers probably lingering into
Friday night and perhaps, to a lesser extent on Saturday. High
temperatures will be much cooler by Friday and Saturday...only
reaching 35-40 in most locations. Overnight lows will dip down
into the mid-20s to lower 30s. The weather looks to dry out
heading to Saturday night and next Sunday as an upper level
ridge approaches from the west. Remaining seasonably cool for
next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18z Update...

Frontal boundary is pushing through Central NY/PA at this
time...along a line from about KSYR--KELM--KUNV. Ahead of this
front expect another 1-2 hours of MVFR/Fuel Alternate CIGS.
After the front moves through the area (25/19-21z) conditions
should begin to improve fairly quickly...with VFR conditions
expected at all terminals after 25/21z and through the
remainder of the taf period. This evening, tonight and Monday
morning expect generally clear skies, with just a few or sct
high clouds near 20-25k ft agl across the region.

South or SSE winds 5-15kt, with gusts up to 20-25kt will
continue for the next 1-3 hours. The low level jet near 2k ft
agl is now shifting more SW (200-210 degs) and LLWS around
35-40kts will continue at this level for the next 1-3 hours as
well...then diminish. As the aforementioned frontal boundary
moves through, winds will shift out of the SW or WSW mainly
8-18kt later this afternoon. Winds turn west and decrease to
less than 10kt for this evening and tonight. Westerly winds
become a little breezy, 10-20kt starting mid to late Monday
morning.


Outlook...

Monday-Wednesday...Generally VFR.

Thursday...Restrictions may develop in rain, or mixed
precipitation.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MJM



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