Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 222044
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
344 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Light lake effect snow showers will affect Northern New York
through this afternoon. Fair weather and cool temperatures are
expected through Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
140 PM update...
Light lake effect snow showers will continue through early
evening, though little in the way of accumulation is expected
due to the very dry boundary layer in place. West-northwest
winds will gust at 20 to 25 knots through sunset.

Persistent low stratus downwind of Lake Ontario will keep much
of our northern forecast area cloudy overnight.

Skies will break up Thursday morning, leading to a mainly sunny
but cool Thanksgiving afternoon. Another weak lake band is
forecast to set up over Northern Oneida County Thursday night.

955 AM update...
Light snow showers are tapering off and sliding east of our
forecast area. This trend will continue through the next few
hours, then a light lake band will set up for our northern
counties for this afternoon and evening. Little accumulation is
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
320 pm update... Friday and Friday night still look
tranquil/mainly precipitation free, as any significant uptick
in moisture and forced lift remain well north and west of
CNY/NEPA. A few flurries or sprinkles could be leftover early
Friday morning in our far northern zones, and some light rain
showers could approach our far western zones towards daybreak
Saturday, but that`s about it.

Temperatures look mild, as a developing SW flow and warm
advection pattern help highs reach the 40s Friday afternoon,
with lows Friday night generally staying at or above the
freezing mark.

On Saturday, a surface cold front should progress eastward
across our forecast area, while a surface low tracks
northeastward off the east coast. Model consensus suggests that any
rain associated with the coastal low should stay well south and
east of our region, while upper support tied to the frontal zone
generally weakens with time. Thus, we think rainfall amounts
Saturday will be fairly light, and we`ve kept the higher
probabilities for showers (60% or more) relegated to our Finger
Lakes and Lake Ontario plain areas.

Readings on Saturday will still be mild, with highs reaching
well into the 40s by early afternoon. Although some colder air
will begin to filter in later in the day post frontal passage,
the main brunt of cold air advection is not likely to reach
CNY/NEPA until after dark.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 pm update... Saturday night and Sunday, a brief shot of cold
air is expected to descend on CNY/NEPA, with a secondary
trough/reinforcing cold air push expected to come through late
Saturday night. The influx of cold air, lingering low-level
moisture, and the proximity of an upper-level trough, should act
together to initiate a period of lake-effect snow showers by
early Saturday evening. At this early juncture, a 280-300 flow
favors Onondaga, Oneida, and Madison counties for the most
persistent lake snows Saturday evening, with an eventual veering
of the flow likely behind the previously mentioned secondary
trough by Sunday morning, probably more into a 310-330 vector,
which could favor the Finger Lakes and Susquehanna regions of
CNY. Keep in mind that given this transitional flow pattern,
along with a expected decrease in moisture depths by late
Saturday night and Sunday, we still feel that a major lake-
effect snow event is unlikely. However, some accumulations can
be expected, and given the high travel volume period over the
holiday weekend, those with travel plans across CNY should check
back for later updates.

Sunday night into Monday, as heights rise at all levels and
moisture further decreases, residual lake-effect bands should
weaken and drift northward with time.

The rest of the period (Monday afternoon-Wednesday) looks
to be mainly dry and trending milder for CNY/NEPA, as an
eastern CONUS flat upper ridge axis develops. In fact, present
indications are that we could be looking at highs at least well
up in the 40s, and perhaps into the 50s, by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will slowly improve to VFR late this afternoon or
early this evening as lake effect snow showers begin to
dissipate. MVFR conditions will be most persistent near SYR,
ITH, and RME, where the lakes will keep snow showers and low
stratus over the terminals.

Light winds and VFR conditions are forecast for Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...VFR.

Saturday...Possible restrictions in rain showers.

Saturday night through Sunday...Lake effect snow showers causing
restrictions, especially for KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP



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