000
FXUS61 KBGM 192348
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
748 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and dry weather pattern will persist all the way through
the weekend and perhaps beyond. Tropical system Jose will
remain well offshore, having very little impact on our region
other than some clouds and spotty light showers in parts of the
Poconos to Catskills tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 pm update...
Little change to the forecast. Some clouds going through the
SYR/UCA areas now. Clouds in the southeast from Jose with some
sprinkles in the middle Delaware River. Fog still expected with
light to calm low level winds and clear skies for parts of the
area.

155 PM Update...
Warm quiet and mostly dry conditions continue.

Models continue to more decided keep even peripheral impacts of
Tropical System Jose mostly out of the area. A few light spotty
showers could manage to back into parts of the Catskills to
Poconos tonight, but even that little bit of activity will exit
as we head into Wednesday.

With an outer rim of cloud cover in the eastern zones, fog
development there may be hindered somewhat, but generally
speaking tonight should be another valley fog night as is very
typical for this time of year. However, as with this afternoon,
non-typical daytime temperatures will again reach around 10
degrees above climatology for highs Wednesday. This will place
our region mainly in the upper 70s-lower 80s, after lows tonight
again in upper 50s-lower 60s. More of the same Wednesday night,
though coverage of fog if anything will be greater since Jose-
associated cloud cover will be long gone.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
220 pm update...
High pressure will continue to dominate the region of central NY
and ne PA Thursday into Friday night as Jose meanders off shore.
The presence of an upper level ridge and a relatively deep dry
air mass will keep chances for rain at near zero.

The main concern will be the much above average temperatures and
the potential for valley morning fog. Clear skies at night along
with calm winds will allow thermal profiles to become favorable
for fog...especially in valley locations where the cold air
drains into the lower elevations.

During the day, the air will be allowed to heat quite quickly
with highs topping out in the lower 80s. Would not rule out a
few mid 80 readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 pm update...
May see a stronger push of warmer air this weekend with 850mb
temps climbing into the +16 to +18 deg C range. Mixing down dry
adiabatically to the surface would result in afternoon high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s...close to 90 in some
locations. Record highs at Syracuse and Wilkes-Barre are in the
lower to mid 90s...and in the upper 80s at the Binghamton
Airport...so not expecting any record breaking temperatures at
this point.

Will likely see the potential for morning valley fog continue as
well this weekend with high pressure in place...strong
raditional cooling at night and calm winds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 pm update...

Our stagnant pattern of mostly VFR except for valley fog late
night-early morning will continue the next 24 hours and beyond.
High confidence on restrictive conditions for KELM, especially
during the 09-14Z window when airport minimums could be reached
at times. Restrictions to at least MVFR should reach KBGM with
IFR possible at times near sunrise as well. Only a light mist
is probable for rest of sites but there is uncertainty as to
whether further restrictions could briefly occur. VFR clouds for
Wednesday.

Tonight winds will light and variable or northeast at 5 kts or
less. Northerly winds at 4 to 8 kts on Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...VFR except for fog possible
each late night-early morning, especially at KELM but for other
terminals as well at times.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MDP/TAC