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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 060357
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
857 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING
MID AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS BEEN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ECHOES ON BLX RADAR BUT CIGS REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 8-10KFT AGL AND DOUBT ANY SPRINKLES ARE EVEN REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN EXISTING LARGE DEWPT SPREADS. SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT BUT HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER SOME.
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME LATER TONIGHT SO SHOULD
SEE WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS...WITH GUSTS OF
40-50 MPH FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE AND BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON. AS
WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...NW FLOW NOT FAVORABLE FOR PURE GAP FLOW.
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AND SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO
THE 50S MOST PLACES. HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST LOWS UP A BIT IN OUR
WEST FOR TONIGHT. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK ENERGY DOES STREAM THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
THE BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
DRIVE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT FROM
BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON AS A LEE TROUGH TIGHTENS UP. GUIDANCE
KEEPS WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO
45-50 MPH OVER THE WEST. FRIDAY SHOULD BE BREEZY MOST LOCATIONS
WITH 850MB WINDS AROUND 30KTS. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON SATURDAY
WITH A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

EXTENDED MODELS WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE GFS HAS NOW COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF IN REGARDS
TO THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. OVERALL..THE FORECAST
LOOKS DRY AND MILD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WILL FLATTEN AND
SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY. WEAKLY ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS SPLIT FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
THERE ARE SIGNS OF WEAK ENERGY FLATTENING THE RIDGE FURTHER FROM
THE NORTH AND DROPPING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS WAS MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS ENERGY AS THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD BE DRY.
WILL LEAVE EXISTING LOW POPS IN...BUT RAISE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATON MAY COME ON WEDNESDAY AS A WESTERN TROUGH KICKS
STRONGER ENERGY AND POTENTIALLY DEEPER MOISTURE INTO MONTANA. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT KLVM AND KBGT WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING REACHING 40KTS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/055 030/055 030/056 035/062 035/062 036/051 027/047
    00/N    00/E    10/U    00/U    00/U    22/W    22/W
LVM 033/054 033/055 030/055 035/059 037/059 039/053 030/048
    00/N    00/B    10/U    00/U    01/N    22/W    22/W
HDN 025/057 026/055 028/057 031/063 032/064 033/054 026/047
    00/B    00/E    10/U    00/U    00/U    02/W    22/W
MLS 026/055 027/052 027/053 032/061 033/061 032/050 024/043
    00/B    02/W    20/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    22/W
4BQ 020/049 021/050 025/052 028/061 030/062 030/054 024/045
    00/B    00/B    10/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    22/W
BHK 021/052 024/049 024/051 029/059 031/059 029/049 020/040
    00/N    12/W    20/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    22/W
SHR 020/051 025/050 025/051 027/060 029/061 031/054 027/048
    00/B    00/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    02/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
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