National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 120948
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
348 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE
STATE TODAY BUT ITS AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS TODAY BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT SO ONLY EXPECT
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THIS SO ONLY EXPECTING AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER AT BEST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SOME PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE SO WINDS SHOULD PICK UP LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW FROM BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON AND ALONG
THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS. ADVISORY WINDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
THE BIG TIMBER AREA AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THAT LOCATION. AS A RESULT OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DOWNSLOPE MIXING WINDS...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED RANGE PROGGS FROM MULTIPLE MODELS AGREE ON TAKING A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE TRICKY AND
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATION DEPENDENT LIKE LAST MONDAY NIGHTS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WOULD NOT
TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO A THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES
AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING IN THE DAYTIME. HOWEVER...I
AM CONFIDENT IN THE PATTERN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION SO WILL RAISE
POPS...BUT WILL KEEP SNOWFALL LOW KEY FOR NOW.

WE SHOULD SEE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOP BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY...AND PROBABLY SOME WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS. EARLY NEXT
WEEK THOUGH THE MODELS DIVERGE IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN ON MONDAY...BUT
THE GFS HAS A MUCH MORE SHALLOW SOLUTION TO THIS WAVE. I SUSPECT
THE TWO WILL EVENTUALLY MEET IN THE MIDDLE. SO FOR NOW WILL USE A
BLEND FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. BT


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GUST TO AROUND 30 KT AT KLVM. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052 033/055 032/056 035/046 031/057 036/053 030/046
    0/B 00/U    00/B    53/W    10/U    02/W    32/W
LVM 049 027/050 028/052 032/044 025/052 032/049 029/046
    0/N 00/N    01/B    33/W    10/N    12/W    32/W
HDN 051 031/054 032/057 034/049 030/057 034/054 030/048
    0/B 00/U    01/B    44/W    10/U    03/W    43/W
MLS 054 031/054 028/054 035/045 029/056 035/053 030/045
    0/B 00/N    01/B    54/W    20/U    23/W    32/W
4BQ 052 031/054 032/056 035/046 029/055 033/055 030/046
    0/U 00/N    01/B    54/W    20/U    12/W    32/W
BHK 051 028/054 026/052 031/042 026/052 031/052 027/042
    0/N 00/N    00/B    34/W    20/U    23/W    32/W
SHR 051 025/054 026/054 031/044 025/055 030/054 027/046
    0/U 00/U    01/B    63/W    20/U    02/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS