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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290242
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
842 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.UPDATE...

Generally clear skies and light winds across the area this
evening...and expect a quiet overnight. There is a chance to see
the Aurora Borealis tonight. No changes planned to the going
forecast. Chambers

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

High pressure ridging will again build over the forecast area for
the next couple of days due to an upper low and trough approaching
the Pacific Northwest coast. Expect a clear sky through tonight
with mild temperatures.

The the upper low and trough become better organized and approach
the Pacific northwest coast on Thursday and move onshore on
Friday. This will provide a southwest flow aloft across the
forecast area. A few weak disturbances within the flow will move
across the area both days bringing a chance for showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The best timing for the forecast area will
be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with mainly just the
mountains and foothills locations for Friday. Precipital waters do
increase to around 0.75" so any shower/thunderstorm could contain
a brief heavy downpour. Highs both days will be well above normal
with readings in the 70s to lower 80s. Hooley


.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...


A longwave trough is progged to push into the region from the west
on Saturday...bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly
west of Billings Saturday. Region will still be warm with high
temperatures in the 70s, and even some lower 80s east of Billings.

Waves of energy in southwest flow aloft should bring periods of
showers and a few thunderstorms to much of the region Saturday
night into Monday morning. Then...a more organized storm system is
progged to track northeastward over WY Monday night into
Tuesday...which would yield a steady rain for much of southern
MT/north central WY.  Have adjusted PoPs upward a bit for Monday
evening into Tuesday morning, as this time frame looks to have the
best chance of precipitation, per GFS and ECMWF. Exact track of
system will determine where heaviest precipitation falls. In
addition, there could be some breezy conditions on the western
side of the surface low in the enhanced surface pressure
gradient...so the track bears watching.

Behind the early week system, region is under west/northwest flow
aloft with additional embedded waves bringing scattered showers
for Wed.

High temperatures should lower from the 60s-lower 70s on Sunday to
50s/60s for Monday, and 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday. RMS/Hooley
&&

.AVIATION...


VFR expected through the TAF period. LLWS possible near KSHR this
evening, and near KBIL and KMLS late tonight into Thu morning.
RMS/Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/081 057/082 054/079 052/068 048/057 043/053 039/054
    00/B    21/B    11/U    43/T    45/T    55/R    32/W
LVM 046/080 053/080 046/076 045/063 041/054 039/051 036/053
    02/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    45/T    55/R    32/W
HDN 049/080 053/081 051/081 051/069 048/059 042/054 039/055
    00/U    21/B    11/U    43/T    45/T    55/R    32/W
MLS 051/083 054/083 053/081 054/070 050/064 044/055 039/054
    00/U    21/B    11/U    23/T    45/T    55/R    42/W
4BQ 052/082 055/081 053/081 052/071 050/067 043/056 038/054
    00/U    21/B    00/U    23/T    35/T    55/R    42/W
BHK 047/078 051/079 048/076 051/070 049/065 043/056 039/052
    00/N    32/W    10/U    23/T    35/T    55/R    43/W
SHR 046/082 048/082 048/079 050/068 046/061 041/051 038/053
    01/B    21/B    10/U    33/T    34/T    44/R    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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