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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 060307
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
807 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
BITTER COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MANY LOCATIONS OVER SC/SE MT ARE CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT NO RECORD LOWS
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BLOWING OVER 10 MILES AN HOUR
OVER FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AND WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO ARE COMMON. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE
JUDITH GAP AREA AS WIND CHILLS HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 35 BELOW ZERO
MOST OF THE EVENING.

PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM BILLINGS TO HYSHAM AND
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE ZONES. UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL SEND A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS OUR AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND SUNRISE.
RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
COUPLE MORE PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE OUT OF CANADA. A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL ROTATE PIECES OF ENERGY SOUTH INTO
MONTANA...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE TONIGHT AND THE SECOND SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. BOTH DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS TO ROUNDUP LINE. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SO ONLY A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH EACH DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE EXTREMELY BITTER AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
RECORD LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MILES
CITY...BILLINGS AND LIVINGSTON. THE FOLLOWING CHART SHOWS THE
RECORDS SET IN 1972 FOR TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS THE FORECASTED LOWS.

DEC 6-8 OF 1972 SAW RECORD SETTING LOWS OF:
-20...-20...-25 IN BILLINGS/ CURRENT FORECAST -16...-20...-15
-28...-25...-39 IN SHERIDAN/ CURRENT FORECAST -19...-20...-13
-27...-23...-28 IN MILES CITY/ CURRENT FORECAST -23...-25...-18
-24...-21...-30 IN LIVINGSTON/ CURRENT FORECAST -19...-20...-12.

HOOLEY


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN UNSETTLED NW FLOW WITH POPS IN
MOST OF THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING SE THROUGH THE AREA SUN THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BRING A BRIEF REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
AS WELL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO.

FAST NW FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA ON MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU. SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...AND
OVERRUNNING WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT TIMES. MODELS
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A WINDY PERIOD WITH LEE TROUGHING COMBINING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE W OF THE AREA BEGINNING ON MON AND
ENDING BY TUE FROM KBIL W. HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN GAP FLOW AREAS AND INCREASED WINDS ELSEWHERE FROM KBIL
W. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON MON WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS BUT
THE WINDS WILL CREATE -20 TO -30 DEGREE WIND CHILLS IN THE
MORNING. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH OF A BLOWING SNOW ISSUE THERE
WILL BE AT THIS TIME. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE SNOWPACK ON THE
GROUND EVOLVES WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THU WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S BY WED AND IN THE 30S ON THU. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AROUND KMLS AND
EAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO KSHR AND WEST
FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FURTHER
EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 919/908 920/906 915/010 905/015 008/020 016/027 017/031
    12/S    22/S    22/J    32/J    22/J    21/B    12/J
LVM 916/906 920/901 912/008 906/012 005/019 014/023 019/029
    12/S    32/S    22/J    32/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
HDN 919/907 920/906 916/007 907/014 008/018 012/025 013/033
    12/S    22/S    22/J    32/J    22/J    21/B    12/J
MLS 923/907 925/907 918/004 911/013 005/013 006/022 008/030
    11/I    11/I    12/J    23/J    32/J    22/J    12/J
4BQ 923/906 921/905 916/005 910/012 006/014 008/024 010/032
    11/I    12/S    22/J    23/J    32/J    22/J    11/B
BHK 925/906 924/907 916/001 910/008 002/009 901/020 005/030
    01/I    11/I    12/J    12/J    32/J    22/J    12/J
SHR 917/905 920/901 913/010 906/014 005/021 009/025 013/034
    02/S    22/S    22/J    32/J    22/J    21/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
      33-37-63.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS