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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272039
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
239 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the area. The
past 6 hours of HRRR runs show that this activity will remain
scattered through the evening. The majority of the better
ingredients are south of the area. While there is some speed shear
across the area, on the order of 30 kts, but hodographs have
little organization. A jet will remain located across northern
Wyoming. It is far enough south the the majority of the stronger
activity will stay in Wyoming. The 00z run on the 27th of the NCAR
ensemble does show a few isolated stronger updrafts across
southern Montana, but still keeps the majority of the activity
south of the area. The main hazard will be strong winds 50+ mph,
with low level dryness.

Going into tomorrow, temperatures will continue to cool with highs
returning to more seasonable conditions. Lingering instability
will result in more scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. CAMs are not overly aggressive with developing
organized strong convection. Things will dry out for Thursday.
Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Pretty similar forecast to what I inherited from the previous shift.
Frontal passage on Thursday, means northwesterly flow and slightly
below normal temperatures on Fri and Sat with some chance PoPs or
less mainly along the foothills and western Mountains. Ridging
begins to move in by the holiday weekend with temperatures on the
increase and decreasing rain chances. Guidance still suggesting
temperatures in the low to mid 90s by the beginning of next week
with low humidity values and minimal rain chances. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorm impacts expected at SHR over the next two hours with
gusty winds. Kept VCTS wording at all other sites through sunset
as scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop up
over the next few hours. VFR conditions overnight, then a return
of tstorms tomorrow afternoon at LVM, BIL, and SHR. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/077 054/075 052/078 054/083 058/087 059/091 060/090
    32/T    23/W    12/T    11/U    11/U    00/U    10/U
LVM 051/072 045/072 043/077 045/081 049/084 051/088 050/086
    34/T    44/T    22/T    13/T    21/U    00/U    10/U
HDN 057/082 054/076 049/079 052/085 056/090 058/093 059/092
    43/T    33/W    11/B    11/U    11/B    00/U    10/U
MLS 056/082 055/077 048/077 050/083 057/090 060/093 061/092
    32/T    32/W    11/B    00/U    01/B    10/U    00/U
4BQ 055/078 054/075 049/076 049/082 055/087 058/091 059/091
    43/T    43/W    11/B    01/U    21/B    10/U    00/U
BHK 052/079 053/073 045/071 044/079 051/084 056/089 058/088
    31/B    23/W    21/B    00/U    11/B    10/U    00/U
SHR 054/074 050/071 046/075 048/081 052/084 053/088 054/088
    55/T    54/T    21/B    12/T    11/B    00/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$

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