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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260302
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
902 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.UPDATE...

An area of showers and light rain expanded across northeast
Wyoming and southeast Montana late this afternoon into this
evening. Short range models continue this trend through late
evening. Light rain has been reported at times at Sheridan and
Bowman radar shows a solid area of light rain across southeast
Montana. As a result, I increased shower chances through late
evening across eastern Sheridan County Wyoming and across the
southern half of Powder River and Carter Counties. This activity
will decrease from west to east by late evening leaving only a
slight chance for a shower or isolated thunderstorm after midnight
for areas mainly along and south of a Livingston-Billings-Broadus
line. The remainder of the forecast is in good shape. Updated
forecast has been sent. Hooley

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Monsoonal moisture advecting north over the region and weak
upslope flow near the surface has allowed clouds to increase and showers
to form over the area this afternoon. Weak forcing has kept most
activity as showers. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue to spread over the area through the evening. Best
chance of showers/thunderstorms will be generally south of a
Livingston to Billings to Ekalaka line. Temperatures have ranged
from the 70s over western and central zones, to the 80s across the
east.

Warmer conditions can be expected for Wednesday and Thursday as
ridging builds back over the Northern Rockies. However, monsoonal
moisture is projected to increase over the region, with weak
impulses moving through as well. This will keep shower and
thunderstorm chances in the forecast, highest over the mountains.
A few thunderstorms could be strong on Thursday as a shortwave
approaches from the west, instability increases, and southeast
flow develops at the surface. Temperatures will range from the
80s to lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Friday morning, shortwave pushes east into the Dakotas while more
energy makes its way into the western Mountains. Shower and
thunderstorm chances remain mainly confined to high terrain and
foothills by afternoon. Unsettled pattern continues into early
next week with periods of energy rounding the ridge over the
central Rockies. Thunderstorms look monsoonal in nature and driven
by diurnall heating. Temperatures should remain in the upper 80s
to low 90s through the period with upper-level cloud cover keeping
things in check despite continued ridging. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated light showers or sprinkles are expected tonight, mainly
near the mountains/foothills and in far southeast MT. VFR
conditions will prevail. Expect isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop by late Wednesday afternoon, again mainly
near the mountains and foothills. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/089 065/089 064/091 064/091 063/092 064/092 063/092
    22/T    23/T    31/B    11/U    21/U    21/U    21/U
LVM 054/085 057/085 056/086 055/089 056/090 056/089 055/090
    22/T    33/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
HDN 060/091 062/091 063/093 064/093 063/094 063/094 062/094
    22/T    23/T    31/B    11/U    21/U    21/U    21/U
MLS 063/092 069/092 068/093 065/094 066/094 067/094 065/093
    11/U    23/T    32/T    10/U    21/U    10/U    10/U
4BQ 062/089 065/089 065/091 064/092 064/092 066/092 062/091
    31/B    23/T    42/T    10/U    21/U    21/U    21/U
BHK 059/089 063/089 064/090 062/091 061/090 063/091 061/089
    11/U    22/T    33/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    21/U
SHR 056/085 058/086 058/088 057/088 058/089 058/089 057/088
    34/T    33/T    42/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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