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647
FXUS65 KBYZ 210220
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
820 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.UPDATE...

Forecast is in pretty good shape this evening. Made a minor tweak
to winds and pops over SE MT to account for current trends.
Southeast winds ahead of approaching upper trof have been gusting
20 to 30 mph over the past few hours. Looks like this trend will
continue into the early morning hours and adjusted winds upward to
account for this. Have seen a couple of weak thunderstorms over
Carter county this evening. Thinking isolated storms will cover
the rest of the night based on latest model solutions with better
coverage over the western Dakotas. Lowered pops a few percentage
points to reflect isolated potential. Still looking for an
increase in smoke overnight into the morning hours for areas west
of Rosebud county and particularly in the western valleys and
foothills. Chambers

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

Besides a few showers across eastern areas this morning, it has
been a quiet weather day with just some high clouds passing
overhead from time to time. Showers and thunderstorms become
possible across SE MT this evening as energy from an approaching
disturbance/cold front moves into the region and southeasterly
flow at the surface advects moisture and instability into the
area. A developing low level jet this evening will continue
chances for nocturnal convection overnight. Models indicate
smoke/haze increasing across western areas overnight.

Winds will turn northerly behind the front by Monday morning as a
trof remains over the area through the first part of the day,
before ridging begins to build in from the west. Dry conditions
are expected for Monday. As far as viewing for the Eclipse in
southern Montana and northern Wyoming, models indicate middle to
high level clouds over the area, moving east with time. Clouds
look to be east of Billings by midday with some smoke/haze over
the area from wildfires, although the smoke is not expected to
restrict viewing.

Dry conditions are expected to persist into Tuesday as ridging
continues to build over the Northern Rockies. High temperatures
mainly in the 80s can be expected for both Monday and Tuesday for
the lower elevations. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...


Wednesday looks hot and dry ahead of a cold front and upper level system
for the end of the week. Temperatures will push into the lower 90s
in most locations Wednesday afternoon. Surface trof over the area
should help inhibit the winds but will still be a fire weather
concern. Plains moisture advection with low level SE winds will
improve moisture levels and chances for showers and thunderstorms
Thu/Fri, however brunt of the energy aloft is well north of the
area so 20 to 30 percent chances seem reasonable. Cold front
looks to arrive late in the day Thursday keeping temperatures in
the 85 to 90 degree range, dropping into the lower 80s for Friday.
Average highs are in the 80 to 86 degree range for this week. Dry
northwest flow develops for Saturday and Sunday, presenting a
possible fire weather threat with gusty mix down winds and dry
afternoon relative humidities. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions will prevail tonight. Isolated showers/tstms will
be possible over mainly SE MT during the overnight hours, with
local MVFR conditions possible with precipitation.

Smoke density will increase over the area tonight impacting slant
range visibility at times, especially toward sunrise. Surface
visibilities are expected to remain unrestricted at TAF sites.
Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/085 055/089 059/093 061/090 059/083 054/083 054/086
    10/K    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    20/U    00/U
LVM 046/084 047/090 050/091 055/086 052/082 045/083 047/086
    00/K    00/U    01/U    13/T    32/T    20/U    00/U
HDN 056/086 053/091 055/095 060/092 060/086 055/086 054/088
    10/K    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    20/U    00/U
MLS 057/085 054/088 057/092 061/092 060/086 056/086 054/086
    21/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    10/U    00/U
4BQ 057/085 052/089 055/091 057/091 058/087 055/086 053/086
    21/B    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    21/U    00/U
BHK 057/083 048/084 051/086 055/087 057/085 053/082 051/083
    21/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    20/U    00/U
SHR 053/084 050/088 053/091 055/089 054/084 051/083 049/084
    10/K    00/U    01/U    12/T    23/T    30/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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