Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 290943
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
343 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...
Very little change in the weather pattern for the next couple of
days. We will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms
each day. High pressure ridging will continue today into
Wednesday. Several weak disturbances under this ridge, mainly over
the Great Basin area, will drift north then east across south
central Montana. Hi Res models have not been handling these subtle
features well the past 24 hours.
Currently, a cluster of thunderstorms is moving across the
northern portions of the state, as well as new development just
across the border into the Dakotas. In addition, some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across
Musselshell, Treasure and northeast Yellowstone Counties the past
hour with movement southeast. As a result, we have placed a slight
pop chance across the entire forecast area for this morning.
Slightly better chances will be possible this afternoon and
evening especially over the mountains and adjacent foothills. CAPE
values and shear are not too strong today so severe thunderstorms
are not expected. However, SPC has placed a slight severe risk
across portions of northeast Wyoming so we can`t rule out an
isolated strong to severe storm along the Montana/Wyoming border
this afternoon into this evening.
Status-quo weather pattern will continue tonight into Thursday
with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm at any time but the
best timing would be afternoon/evening. Highs both days will be
above normal with readings mainly in the middle to upper 80s.
.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...
A few days ago the extended range progs were trying to drop an
upper low into the Pacific NW this weekend. Overall model
solutions have trended closest to the ECMWF, and now have the
trough/short wave track across canada. This will tend to flatten
out the ridge across the northern Rockies for the holiday weekend.
This will mean lower 500mb heights, but to balance this out the
easterly surface winds which have prevailed for the last several
weeks will be less dominant. This is especially true in our
western zones. So temperatures will remain upper 80s to lower 90s.
There does not appear to be any decent dynamic forces to affect
our region over the weekend. Thus, no focus for good thunderstorm
development. We expect basically isolated convection.
For next week, the GFS and EC are at odds as to the possibility
of a modest cool off. We will stay middle of the road for now. BT
There is a slight chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm
during the morning across the TAF sites. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are then expected for the afternoon.
Expect MVFR to IFR conditions with the stronger thunderstorms.
Otherwise...east to northeasterly surface winds should prevail
across the forecast area with some mid level clouds. BT
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
BIL 088 061/088 061/092 062/093 061/092 058/090 058/089
3/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 21/U 12/T
LVM 088 054/085 053/091 051/090 050/089 048/087 047/087
3/T 33/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 090 058/089 058/092 058/093 057/093 055/090 055/090
3/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 21/U 11/B
MLS 090 061/087 063/090 062/094 062/092 059/089 059/089
2/T 21/B 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 12/T
4BQ 089 060/086 060/089 060/095 062/095 059/092 059/094
3/T 22/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 11/B
BHK 085 056/080 055/085 057/090 059/092 057/088 055/088
2/T 21/B 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 087 057/085 054/088 053/092 054/093 052/090 053/091
3/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 21/B 11/B