Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 181632
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
932 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.UPDATE...

No updates needed to the going forecast. Conditions will remain
breezy through the region this afternoon. The strongest winds
through today will occur along our foothill locations in locations
such as Big Timber, Livingston, and Nye with gusts around 40 to 50
mph. Stronger winds move in overnight as the mid-level flow
becomes more westerly and southwesterly. Dobbs

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...

Heights build the next two days with backing flow. This will keep
the forecast dry this weekend. Also, temperatures will moderate
into Sunday with increased downslope flow. The main story will be
wind over the western foothills.

A strong surface pressure gradient is progged to develop tonight
as surface pressures fall over southwest Canada. The gradient
looks adequately tight, and local guidance tools indicate the
likelihood of gusts to 60 mph increases from Livingston to Nye
tonight. These strong winds are expected to continue through early
Monday, before a cold front sweeps through and takes the gradient
away. Winds should reach Advisory criteria late this evening, and
decided to issue a Wind Advisory to run through Monday morning.
This strongest winds should be Sunday night.

The plains will experience some breezy conditions today and
Sunday as well, with some gusts to 30 mph. Highs today will be
seasonal, with readings reaching into the 50s on Sunday. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Relatively minor changes for the extended forecast period, with
models reasonably over the past few runs.

Monday will be a warm and dry prefrontal day across the lower
elevations, with increasing clouds and snow over the high terrain
as Pacific trof. A cold front will move through the area Monday
night. This should reduce the winds along the foothills. The cold
front will also bring a quick chance for mountain snow, with rain
switching switching over to snow overnight on the plains.
Conditions will remain cool on Tuesday with highs lower 40s. Temps
will begin a warmup through Thanksgiving, as upper level ridging
redevelops Wednesday, and flow turns more zonal and downslope
flow returns Thursday. Highs in the 60s can be expected for
Thanksgiving Day. A cold front will slide south through the region
Thursday night/Friday morning. Several shortwaves will slide
through the flow, bringing a chance of snow over the mountains,
but little to no chance into lower elevations with prevailing
high pressure. The next chance for precip for the lower elevations
will be late Thanksgiving night and into next Friday, as another
cold front crosses the region. Precip potential will linger into
Saturday, but will quickly shift south. This cold front will also
drop temps back to the 40s by Saturday. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Expect
conditions to breezy across much of S MT, especially around KLVM
where wind gusts will increase through the day towards 50 kts.
Expect winds around KLVM to remain strong into Sunday. Reimer
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044 027/050 033/052 025/040 034/058 042/061 039/052
    0/N 00/N    02/W    22/W    22/W    11/B    22/W
LVM 043 027/047 035/048 028/045 038/056 042/057 039/048
    0/N 00/N    03/W    33/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 046 023/052 029/053 024/041 029/059 037/063 036/053
    0/N 00/U    01/E    12/W    11/E    11/B    22/W
MLS 044 024/050 027/052 018/033 024/056 037/060 036/051
    0/N 00/U    01/E    11/B    11/E    11/B    21/B
4BQ 044 022/053 027/055 022/037 027/058 038/062 037/054
    0/N 00/U    01/B    11/B    11/E    10/B    11/B
BHK 041 021/052 025/053 013/029 018/053 033/057 034/050
    0/N 00/U    01/B    11/U    11/E    11/B    11/B
SHR 044 019/052 025/056 024/043 028/058 034/060 034/053
    0/U 00/U    01/E    11/B    12/J    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to noon MST
      Monday FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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