Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 221549

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
949 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Sat...
Update: Minor updates this morning to change cloud cover slightly
and to mention near critical fire weather concerns this afternoon
early evening for Fire Weather Zones 137 and 122. Also the threat
of windy conditions across Fort Peck Lake continues this afternoon
and evening. TC

Previous Discussion...Cold front passage overnight has brought
some showers and gusty winds to the region. Winds have mostly
diminished and showers sliding into North Dakota early this

Upper low over central Canada expected to send a second push of
cooler air south of the border today. The cold air advection will
produce good mixing for some 40-50kt 700mb winds during the late
morning and early afternoon. A band of moisture follows behind the
CAA for the potential for a few showers in the late afternoon and
evening. Even without showers, the moisture should bring clouds
and a rise in relative humidity to alleviate some of the fire
weather concerns.

High pressure pushes into central Montana tonight with enough
pressure gradient to bring winds up across the eastern zones on
Friday. Upper trof digging into the upper Midwest will keep
temperatures below average into Saturday even as surface high
moves east. Ebert

.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

Saturday night through Tuesday morning will be dominated by a
strong upper-level ridge of high pressure, which is expected to
keep all precipitation away from NE Montana and and daytime temperatures
well into the upper 80s.

Tuesday and beyond: Even though there is significant model
disagreement there seems to be a change in the weather pattern in
the form of a low pressure trough descending through the Canadian
Rockies and pushing a cold front through our region. This far out,
best guess includes slight chances for scattered rain showers
through mid week next week.



Synopsis: With the upper-level low pressure center over the
central Canadian Prairie, a small-scale weather disturbance and
low pressure trough is forecasts to push through NE Montana late
today bringing another round of rain showers...late afternoon
through midnight...then diminishing after midnight. This will
also allow strong winds to mix down to the surface, especially in
and around showers.

Flight conditions: Mainly VFR with some late afternoon and evening
rain showers possible impacting the TAF sites with some brief MVFR

Winds: NW winds 10 to 15 kts gusts up to 25 kts, then increasing
to 15-20kts gusts up to 35 kts during the afternoon and early
evening. Crosswind concerns will be heightened. Winds are forecast
to decrease overnight into the NW 10-15 kts range.


Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck
Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern


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