Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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502
FXUS65 KGGW 200136 AAA
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
736 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sun...

Initial hazard update was to cancel the RFW and the NPW due to
lowering wind. Letting the HWO expire at 02Z.

Satellite imagery shows the upper-level trough responsible for
today`s north wind sweeping across central Saskatchewan. It also
shows scattered mid-level clouds moving through our local area
this evening. The cold front has worked its way south into
northern Wyoming. With wind decoupling from the surface, expect a
mostly quiet night. Main update was to wind and sky grids based on
near term guidance and observations.

Templer


Previous discussion -
Synoptic Setup: short term begins with hot high pressure over the
lower Intermountain West and butting up against cool Pacific air
over the western half of Canada. This has produces a zonal flow
pattern over the northwestern quarter of the CONUS including
northeast Montana.

THis afternoon: With the cold front having just moved through and
the center of high pressure to the northeast over southern
Alberta, wind has risen this afternoon while the pressure patterns
level out. High pressure with cooler air is expected to settle
into northeast Montana by the evening hours allowing winds speeds
to reduce rapidly.

Sunday: Zonal flow will be in place. However hot air to the
southeast will begin smashing up against the exiting cooler air.
While condition should stay stable. Would not be completely
surprise if unstable air to the south generates a rain showers or
two that enters the far southern zones before dissipating. GAH


.LONG TERM...Sun night through Sat...

The Drought of 2017 continues...

Blended things today with the latest guidance. Things start off
close to normal temperature-wise then rise above normal levels as
an upper ridge builds in. A trough moving in from western Canada
will increase the chance of showers/thunderstorms about Thursday
Night/Friday. TFJ

Previous Discussion...
Upper trof over central Canada early next week will give way to a
building ridge through mid week. Another upper trof will push into
western Canada late in the week.

For northeast Montana, a shortwave sliding through the northwest
flow will push a weak cold front through the state early Monday
morning. Could see a few showers with this front and cool
temperatures as high pressure pushes into the northern plains.

Ridge begins building into the northern Rockies on Tuesday.
Temperatures will slowly warm through Thursday as the ridge moves
east. Dry conditions continue under the ridge.

Upper trof lifts across the Canadian Rockies late in the week.
Models differ somewhat on when to push a cold front through
eastern Montana, but cooler temperatures and a few showers are
possible during the weekend. Ebert


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CAT: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: High pressure is rapidly moving into the area tonight.

WIND: Shifting from the north to the east through the period with
speeds less than 15 KTS.

Proton


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



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