Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 262032
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
232 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE COLD TROUGH SETS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... WHILE A LARGE WARM RIDGE RESIDES OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND CANADA. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES UNDER THE WARMER SIDE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... MOISTURE HANGING IN TOUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE DAM TO THE ND BORDER
AND AREAS NORTH OF IT AS EXTRA SNOW ON THE GROUND FROM EARLIER
MELTS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT... 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ENTER INTO THE
DOUBLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN INTO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING MAY NO QUITE TOP OUT AS EXPECTED THOUGH.

SATURDAY... INITIALLY A WARM DAY. BUT WHEN THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST... THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE HOT ON THE
RIDGE HEALS WILL SPIRAL UP A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND
700 MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL FORM...
STRENGTHEN... AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY BECOME VERY STRONG DUE
TO THE TIGHT PGF AND EXTRA CAA BEHIND IT. POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT BUT TOTALS ARE ANEMIC
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AND INCH FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE QUICK
PASSAGE.  GAH

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE BUT HONED IN ON WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...GETTING MORE DETAILED. DIDN/T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THINGS
WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM. BLENDED TEMPS/WINDS AND SKY A BIT TO NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS FOR WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL/SLIGHTLY
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. RESULT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INTERMITTENT MIXED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MOSTLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A NW TO SE STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED IFR/MVFR
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE KOLF AREA TONIGHT OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL
BE VFR.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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