Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 171613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1013 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE POPPED
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THUS UPDATED TO PUT MENTION INTO
THE FORECAST. THESE SAME DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS INCREASED POPS THERE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE FORECAST AREAS TODAY. WILL SEE SOME EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL START TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THEN... A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARDS A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE AROUND THE EDGE OF A
RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK DOWN IS ANTICIPATED JUST
BEYOND THE CYCLE AND COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE... CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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