280
FXUS63 KILX 122354
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
654 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances (20-50%) for showers and storms are advertised
  through the upcoming week, though not everyone will see rain.

- Temperatures will be seasonable through Sunday, then turn
  warmer this week. A cold front later in the week could bring a
  period of cooler temperatures by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...A Few Storms Through Late This Afternoon...

An upper trough spinning over the International border north of here
will push a weak cold front through the area today. Early afternoon
surface analysis shows the front positioned from roughly Lacon to
Jacksonville, with west-northwest winds and somewhat lower dewpoints
behind it. Thunderstorms have developed well ahead of the boundary
in a weakly sheared, marginally unstable environment over eastern
Illinois. The threat for this should come to an end here quickly
as storms push into Indiana.

...Summer-Like Warmth, Daily Precipitation Chances This Week...

The previously mentioned upper trough will begin lifting northward
into Canada tonight, though broad troughing will remain in place
through the rest of the weekend. The cold front will drop south of
the area late tonight and then stall out over southern Illinois.
Precipitation chances for Sunday have increased from the previous
forecast due to a further north track of a shortwave trough
originating over the central Plains. This wave will lift into the
middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday, sending the stationary front
back northward into the area. Scattered storm chances (20-40%)
will increase by Sunday afternoon with surface ridging putting an
end to activity by the evening hours.

Daily chances for precipitation will be seen through the new
week, with the highest chances (40-60%) expected by mid to late
week. Early week precipitation chances are expected to be lower
(20-30%) and more isolated due to large-scale subsidence with
upper ridging.

Temperatures will steadily increase this week as mid-level heights
climb with the building ridge. Longer range guidance shows a
stronger cold front moving through late in the week, potentially
bringing a cool down by the weekend. However, timing differences in
the front`s arrival has resulted in a low predictability forecast.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A weather system moving through southern IL Sunday will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms to the I-72 corridor and
southward Sunday afternoon, along with MVFR cigs and brief MVFR
vsbys. Until then, mainly VFR conditions are expected, however
some lowering of vsbys in fog around sunrise is likely, and have
included tempo MVFR vsby from 10Z-12Z. Winds becoming light and
variable overnight, then returning from the WSW 4-8 kts by
15Z-17Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$