Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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869 FXUS64 KJAN 141106 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 606 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Today and Tonight: The bulk of the precipitation has move north and east of the area this morning, but a few isolated showers will continue to be possible through the morning. The main upper trough axis will move across the area today and this may kick of isolated to scattered showers/storms mainly for the northern and eastern portions of the area. WIth limited moisture/instability expect any storms that do develop this morning into the afternoon hours to remain below strong/severe limits. Drier air will build in this afternoon and expect the activity to move east of the area later this afternoon and evening along with clearing skies. Skies will be mostly clear overnight, with lows in the low 60s. /15/ Wednesday through Monday: A split flow pattern will continue across the CONUS through next weekend. Shortwave ridging over the Gulf Coast will prevail through the day Wednesday and into Wednesday night, allowing for temps to rebound into the mid and upper 80s Wednesday afternoon. Then Thursday into Friday, model guidance indicate that a strengthening southern stream jet and positively-tilted shortwave trough shift eastward across the Southern CONUS. Increasing lift and instability in advance of this system will increase the possibility for organized severe thunderstorms in the Thursday-Friday window. ECMWF/CMC solutions generate convection over East Texas Thursday and steers a likely MCS toward central LA/MS Thursday night as well as re-development closer to the central Gulf Coast Friday evening overnight. Meanwhile the GFS/NAM solutions are less robust with Thursday`s East Texas convection escaping the Plains and hold off until Friday before brining more intense convection into our forecast area. If the storms hold off in our area until Friday, instability will have a greater chance to build northward in advance of the system. GFS paints 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the southern tier of our forecast area by Noon on Friday with 50-60 kts of westerly deep-layer shear across the area. These conditions would certainly support organized severe thunderstorms across portions of our forecast area. The big *BUT* that must be emphasized is that with these southern stream waves exciting storms upstream over the Southern Plains, it has occurred several times recently that sheared storms to our west have the chance to spread farther east and faster if an organized MCS can develop. Therefore will highlight the Thursday evening into Friday period as our next chance for severe storms. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe storm to our southwest before 12Z Friday and Slight Risk (15% area) for central/northeast LA and central/southern MS after 12Z Friday. To not get overly specific with timing yet, will combine this threat into one graphic for the previously-mentioned time range and leave further refinement to the next few updates as the details of the wave come into better focus. In addition to the threat of severe thunderstorms, the strong shear and instability will be paired with increasing humidity in the region. Latest guidance pushes PWAT values into the 1.7-2.0 inches range by Friday, leading to a threat for heavy rain with storms. Localized flash flooding could be a concern, especially for parts of our area that have seen the most rain in the last week or two. Current FLASH soil moisture values are most saturated from around Richland and Madison parishes southeast to Clarke and Wayne counties. A quick 2-3 inches of rain over any of those areas could easily lead to ponding water or flash flooding. A Limited threat area for Flash Flooding has therefore been introduced for Thursday and Friday as well. The upper-level trough axis should be clearing east of our forecast area by Saturday night, so trended POPs lower than guidance Saturday night and Sunday based on latest trends in deterministic guidance. Peaking ahead into next week, the flow looks to become better phased across the CONUS as a trough deepens over the western CONUS and a ridge amplifies over Mexico and the western Gulf Coast region. The likelihood of high temps reaching the lower 90s increases to start the new work week, with average temps expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal for much of the area. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail across sites this morning, as all of the precip has moved well east of the area. Expect a mix VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions over the next few hours, but conditions will improve after 16-17Z. Isolated to scattered storms may bring brief MVFR/IFR to GTR this afternoon, but expect VFR conditions to prevail through the end of the period for the remaining sites./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 82 61 85 63 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 83 61 86 61 / 30 0 0 0 Vicksburg 83 60 86 64 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 86 63 88 64 / 30 0 0 0 Natchez 83 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 81 63 85 65 / 20 0 0 0 Greenwood 81 62 84 64 / 30 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15