Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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481
FXUS62 KJAX 211935
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
235 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

...DENSE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY/...
Rest of this afternoon...Shortwave energy continues to move up the
FL peninsula and trigger scattered/numerous showers and embedded
storms across Central FL that will push northward into NE FL and
coastal SE GA the remainder of the afternoon and into the early
evening hours. A few brief heavier downpours are possible with
heaviest rainfall still expected south of the I-10 corridor of NE
FL with amounts in the 0.25-0.50" range and lesser amounts further
N across inland SE GA.

Tonight...Showers and any embedded storm activity will fade during
the evening hours as energy pushes NE and offshore of the region.
Skies will only see brief partial clear towards midnight and any
cooling that takes place near the surface will only enhance the
potential for low clouds and dense fog towards morning. Mild
overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 50s inland and near 60
at the coast. The more clearing that takes place during the late
evening and overnight hours will increase the threat of dense fog
and the latest SREF guidance has 60-80% chances of dense fog by
sunrise Wed Morning along with strong support by the NAM/GFS
guidance.

Wednesday...Region remains in between systems for most of the day
as low clouds/dense fog will take most of the morning to dissipate
with some sunny breaks by afternoon allowing temps to push into
the upper 60s/near 70 SE GA and lower/middle 70s across NE FL.
Next system approaching from the GOMEX late in the day will
increase rain chances from the SW from the I-75 corridor of North
FL into the rest of the area by sunset with scattered showers and
possibly a thunderstorm.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thanksgiving and Friday)...
Still shaping up to be a rainy Thanksgiving day across northeast
Florida and portions of southeast Georgia. Surface low starts to
develop in the eastern Gulf, and high pressure across the mid-
Atlantic will keep onshore flow at the surface. In the mid and
upper levels, southwesterly flow remains in place and a shortwave
trough will move into the Gulf sometime Thursday night. Scattered
to numerous showers with a few rumbles of thunder will develop by
early Thursday morning across north central Florida and spread
northeastward through the day.  PWATs will be on the rise through
the end of the week, and widespread rainfall totals of around an
inch to 1.25 through Friday seem reasonable across northeast
Florida, with localized areas picking up higher amounts. Across
southeast Georgia, rainfall amounts will likely be less other than
right along the coast. Still most areas should see at least
0.25-0.50 inch.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Surface low moves across Florida and up the Atlantic coast as
upper level troughing extends across the eastern third of the US.
Rain chances will stick around the coast on Saturday morning
before we start to dry out. Another shortwave trough will break
off the mean flow across the Gulf Coast states sometime on Sunday,
though models still diverge on how far south the trough digs
before moving eastward, and how strong it will be. Have kept the
remainder of the forecast dry for now


&&

.AVIATION...
Still VFR conds ahead of developing showers/isolated storms moving
up the FL peninsula expected to arrive at TAF sites btwn 20-21z
with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in rain, and with increased instability have
included VCTS for several hours as chances have increased
slightly. Showers end in the 01-02z time frame and will leave
likely reduced vsbys in light MVFR VSBYS in mist during the
evening hours and the threat of dense fog late tonight has
increased to 60-80% so have placed LIFR conds in the TAF sites
from the 08-14z time frame tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SEly flow around 15 knots this evening with seas 3-6 ft with SCEC
headlines offshore will become NE after the low pressure system
passes offshore and expect NE winds 15-20 knots and seas at least
4-6 ft Wednesday through Friday as series of lows pass just south
of the waters, still will be very close to SCA conds but will hold
off on issuing any advisories with this package. Frontal passage
early in the weekend will shift winds to offshore/NW with winds
remaining elevated at 15-20 knots but seas decreasing slightly
over the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk continues through the week in the
onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  55  70  52 /  20  20  20  50
SSI  71  59  68  59 /  60  40  10  70
JAX  76  59  73  58 /  50  40  20  70
SGJ  76  61  73  60 /  50  40  30  60
GNV  77  58  75  58 /  50  40  40  70
OCF  78  58  77  59 /  60  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Hess/Elsenheimer/Corless



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