Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 250743
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
243 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...

Unseasonable warmth will continue today with record max temps
likely at inland locations (see climate section below). Southwest
flow will result in the warmest temperatures occurring along the
I-95 corridor. An Atlantic seabreeze will develop but it will
remain pinned near the coast. Beaches should still reach the
lower 80s prior to the development of the seabreeze. We went
above guidance for max temps today.

Moist southwest flow will bring a chance for isolated showers
today as the Gulf coast seabreeze moves inland during the day. An
isolated shower will remain possible along the I-95 corridor into
this evening as the west coast seabreeze finally meets up with the
Atlantic seabreeze. Widely scattered showers may move into
southeast Georgia late this afternoon into this evening as a weak
cold front stalls just northwest of the area. Patchy to areas of
fog/low stratus will be possible tonight in moist southwest flow
off the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures tonight will remain well
above normal.

.SHORT TERM...Mon through Wed...

Low stratus clouds with some patchy ground fog will begin to lift
and scatter out after sunrise Monday, yielding to another warm day
with near record temperatures once again despite increasing cloud
cover ahead of a weakening cold front. Best chances of showers and
isolated tstorms will focus across SE GA, especially from
Homerville to Waycross to Jesup northward toward the Altamaha
River basin Mon morning through mid-afternoon. Rain chances will
decrease across SE GA into Mon evening as the surface front
settles farther south, but as upper level forcing pushes east of
the region with upper level flow becoming more zonal. Mostly dry
conditions across NE FL south of I-10, however a prevailing west
coast sea breeze merging with the east coast sea breeze near and
east of the St. Johns River basin in the late afternoon/early
evening could spark a few showers.

Surface high pressure building over the mid-Atlantic region will
strengthen a wedge axis down the lee of the Appalachians Mon night
into Tue, which will further shift the surface front southward
across NE FL as more of a backdoor cool front. Breezy onshore flow
and lingering low level moisture will bring mostly cloudy skies
and a chance of coastal showers across NE FL, with drier but still
cloudy skies across much of SE GA. Temperatures will cool toward
more normal values, but still trend above normal for the date at
most locations. Tue night the front begins to lift northward as a
warm front across NE FL with a chance of mainly coastal showers,
then the front lifts farther north across SE GA into Wed with a
chance of showers across SE GA and generally east of the St Johns
River basin of NE FL where a late afternoon sea breeze merger is
expected.

Temperatures will continue to trend above normal values with
another day of near record heat on Monday. Tuesday temperatures
will cool back toward near seasonal values, but still trend above
climo for most locations. Warmer conditions on Wed as SSW winds
develop ahead of a stronger cold front.

.LONG TERM...Thu through Sun...

Synopsis...Cold front passage late Thu/early Fri with little
widespread rainfall expected. A return to dry conditions and near
normal temperatures next weekend.

Warm and breezy SW winds Thu will once again raise temperatures to
near record values ahead of a stronger approaching cold front.
Clouds will increase through the day, with the best chances of
showers and isolated tstorms across SE GA and the Suwannee River
Valley through Thu evening where a few strong tstorms capable of
gusty winds will be possible. Thu night rainfall will will push
farther ESE across the area with the front, with a general
decrease in rainfall coverage and intensity as upper level
dynamics once again lift NE of the region and mid level flow
becomes less amplified and more zonal. Pattern change trails this
frontal passage Fri into the weekend with a return to drier
conditions and cooler more seasonable temperatures with highs in
the 60s/low 70s and lows in the 40s/50s coast this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Scattered to
broken stratocumulus clouds may occasionally produce ceilings in
the 3000 to 5000 ft range today. Isolated showers will also be
possible today but not enough to warrant placement in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds of 10-15 kt and seas of 3-5 ft through tonight.
Winds will lay down a bit late tonight through Monday evening as
a surface ridge dips farther south and the pressure gradient
relaxes ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move across the
waters late Monday night with winds quickly shifting around to
the northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots by Tuesday
morning. SCEC conditions will prevail on Tuesday. Winds will veer
quickly to the south Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward
over the waters. A stronger frontal system will impact the waters
late in the week with the potential for an extended period of
advisory conditions starting as early as Thursday afternoon in
southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front and then in west
northwesterly flow on Friday and Saturday behind the cold front.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk due to easterly swells and developing
southeasterly winds with the afternoon seabreeze.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Maximum Temps for Feb 25th
JAX 85/2001
GNV 85/1962
AMG 83/2001
SSI 80/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  62  77  58 /  20  20  60  40
SSI  78  63  77  60 /  20  20  50  40
JAX  87  61  84  62 /  20  10  20  20
SGJ  82  64  82  63 /  20  20  20  20
GNV  86  60  84  63 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  86  60  85  63 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shuler/Enyedi/



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