Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 171058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
258 AM PST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect freezing fog to hang around today. A series of
low pressure systems will begin to affect the Silver State
beginning Wednesday morning and weather will be unsettled through
next weekend.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

Fog or low stratus continues to hang over much of the state this
morning. Some periodic breaks have been occurring in the stratus
deck and temperatures are starting to vary a little more. For
example, KELY dropped to near zero very quickly last evening
while most other areas remained in the teens. Conditions are
otherwise dry for now with a synoptic trough over the CONUS,
stretching from the Baja peninsula to the Plains States. Stagnant
conditions will hold today and maybe even this evening. A moist
low pressure system will begin affecting the LKN CWFA by early
Wednesday morning.

Today through this evening. Dry conditions will continue. The
trough over the western CONUS will stick around and delay
intrusion by the developing moist flow off the Pacific.
Temperatures will be somewhat persistent as they have been the
past few days with a little more diurnal spread, explicitly due
to the fog layer which is now starting to erode. When the stratus
layer breaks, temperatures could soar to 40 degrees. However high
temperatures will generally be in the 20s.

Midnight tonight through Thursday. A low pressure trough axis
will drop down along the Pacific coast and push the CONUS trough
east. This should break up the stagnant air over Nevada. There is
a 160kt jet on the backside of the Pacific trough that will try
to stretch the trough further south, putting the LKN CWFA in the
shadow of the Sierras as far as moisture is concerned initially.
Forecast looks on track and the first significant wave of
moisture is showing up as beginning Wednesday night. A changeover
to snow may inhibit high valley snow amounts initially. At this
juncture, it looks like all zones except Humboldt County will be
in the 2 to 6 inch range for valley snow between Wednesday night
and Thursday. Low temperatures will be in the single digits and
teens tonight, rising to the 20s Wednesday night. High
temperatures will be in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday.

An active weather pattern will exist late this week into early
next week. The first short wave of three will exit the state
Thursday night before the next system drops in from the northwest
affecting the region late Friday. The third system, and most
significant, will manifest as a atmospheric river event and will
commence Sunday lasting through Monday morning. Sufficiently cold
air will be in place for all snow event for northern Nevada
with wintry mix possible in valleys farther south across central
Nevada where temperatures will be a few degrees warmer in the mid
30s during the day through the weekend. Extensive cloud cover
into early next week should inhibit radiational cooling to a large
degree limiting lows generally to the teens.

Winds will pick up across central and east central Nevada Friday
as second short wave system moves through the region. Winds will
become more of a concern Sunday into Sunday evening as a robust
jet associated with the atmospheric river system moves into
northern CA and NV. Quieter weather is expected to resume Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a broad ridge builds over the southwestern


.AVIATION...A strong inversion and generally light winds will
promote very low cloud decks and visibilities at KWMC, KEKO and
KELY through the late morning hours with MVFR to occasional LIFR
restrictions. Freezing fog is a likelihood at KELY early this
morning. Aviation conditions are expected to improve somewhat as
the day progresses as low stratus cloud decks rise and valley air
mixes out. Low clouds have stayed clear of Tonopah so VFR
conditions should prevail there through tonight. High cirrus
clouds will filter into the state today in advance of the next
storm system.




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