Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 181033
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
233 AM PST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Cold this morning with a chance for freezing fog in
areas which got rain and snow. High pressure builds across the
region today with sunny but cool conditions. The next weather
system arrives Monday with some showers forming across the
northern areas. A potential warming pattern for Thanksgiving.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thanksgiving Day.

Echo free radar, cloud free satellite over the Great Basin this
morning. This will continue into Sunday evening, according to the
NAM, Euro, and GFS, which agree. Some warming Sunday with ample
sunshine.

The ridge which has built overhead, gets a weak flattening
shortwave late Sunday night/Monday early morning from the next
large upper low in the northeast Pacific, but moisture is a bit
slow coming. Moisture source appears on water vapor to be the
subtropical Pacific north of Hawaii, and is not a strong
atmospheric river so not expecting the same kind of protracted
light to moderate rain event as the previous one.

Precip progresses over the areas mainly north of Interstate 80
through Tuesday, then tapers off. Previous package had POPS in the
likely range (60+) but have reduced them per latest model runs.
Still strong chances for measurable precip Tuesday and into
Wednesday, the big reduction on Thanksgiving Day.

594 dm high settles into extreme southern California and northwest
Mexico, with strong southwest flow into the Great Basin. Temps
will strongly warm mid week with highs Wednesday generally low 60s
extreme north to low 70s northern Nye County. Temps Thursday
higher with low-mid 60s to mid 70s. This is raised quite a bit
from previous forecast, due to latest numerical model guidance and
model agreement on strong southwestern high.


.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Saturday.

Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast a progressive shortwave trough
crossing the interior Northwest CONUS by the end of next week
which will serve to temporarily flatten the upper ridge pattern
over Nevada. As a result, a weak frontal boundary could pester the
northern third of Nevada with more in the way of cloud cover
along with and a modest chance of some light rain showers in the
valleys and higher elevation mountain snow showers Friday into
Friday night. Otherwise, mild/above normal temperatures will
likely continue beyond Thanksgiving into next weekend.



&&

.AVIATION...Included VCFG at KWMC and KEKO given clear skies,
strong radiational cooling, light and variable winds, and moisture
from recent precipitation favor the formation of areas of fog
across northern Nevada through daybreak this Saturday morning.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions at all TAF sites into Sunday.



&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

98/95/95



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