Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 272104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
204 PM PDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with light winds will continue across
the entire state tonight. An upper- level disturbance will
increased moisture and better chances for showers and
thunderstorms to parts of southern and east-central Nevada
Wednesday and Thursday. A more potent Pacific storm system will
bring the possibility of rain and snow showers mainly across the
northern portions of Nevada over the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...Pleasant and warm conditions will continue this
afternoon. A mid to upper-level disturbance will aid in northward
subtropical moisture transport into southern and east central
Nevada tonight and tomorrow. Vort max currently moving over the
Baja will morph into a short wave as it is absorbed by the the
approaching Pacific trough Wednesday and Thursday so upper-level
dynamics will be muffled, especially Thursday. Marginal moisture
and instability will still yield afternoon showers and
thunderstorms mainly across White Pine and northern Nye county
Wednesday, moving farther north into eastern Elko county Thursday.
Models generally have precip confined east of a line from Tonopah
to the Rubies to Jackpot so not much is expected farther
northwest. Temperatures will decrease a few degrees as increased
cloud cover and weakening of the upper-level ridge occur over the
next couple of days. Winds will increase through midweek but will
generally stay below 15 kts across the state.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday. A Pacific trough
will approach and move through the Great Basin region. The
proposed system is not too cold but will pull up some moisture
from the south as it approaches, finally producing a cold front or
two as it moves through. Confidence in timing of the dynamics with
this system is still in question at the moment.

Thursday night through Saturday afternoon. Low pressure will be
slowly approaching the Canadian/U.S. common coast. There are some
marked differences in how the offshore feature is throwing around
its energy. Due to the erratic nature of the system the sub-
tropical moisture draw from the south across eastern Nevada may
very well be pulsed in nature and thus hard to pinpoint exactly
where and when the impacts will be felt each day. Showers and
thunderstorms will generally be limited to areas east of a north-
south line splitting the Ruby mountains. Low temperatures will
range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. High temperatures will
range from the 70s to around 80 degrees Friday, cooling off to the
60s Saturday.

Saturday night through Tuesday. The trough of low pressure will
move into Washington and open up into a broader wave. There is
still a great bit of uncertainty with the energy surrounding this
system. The GFS pushes through the strongest and quickest shortwave
lobe on Saturday night while the ECMWF has identified a strong
lobe on Sunday night with a slower trough passage scenario. Snow
levels could dip to around 6000 feet over the weekend or early
next week. Low temperatures will range from the 30s to around 40
degrees. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s to the mid


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at KWMC KEKO KELY and KTPH
through Wednesday afternoon.


.FIRE WEATHER...A ridge of high pressure will keep the weather
quiet across northern and central Nevada through tonight. An
upper-level disturbance will bring increased moisture along with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms to fire zone 455 and eastern parts
of zone 457. Significant rainfall is not expected along with
subcritcal winds and RH. As a stronger Pacific system approaches
the region, winds and RH will approach Red Flag levels across
fire zone 467 Friday. Fuels are now critical across zone 467 and
approaching critical status across zone 457 so situation will
have to be monitored closely over the next few days.




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