Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 232210
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
310 PM PDT Thu Mar 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A weak ridge is build across the Great Basin following
the passage of a storm system. This will produce a brief
interlude of calm weather before the next storm system impacts
the silver state this Friday and Saturday. Unsettled weather will
continue into the next week with another storm system expected
this Sunday and Monday.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.
Tonight through Friday morning. This will be a dry period between
systems. A short wave ridge will move over the Great Basin. There
good chance for freezing valley fog with the mostly clear skies
overnight with the abundant surface moisture from the precipitaton
of the last storm system. There is also some localized strong
wind gusts on the leeward side of the Ruby Mountains reaching
into the 50`s mph in Ruby Valley and along highway 93 near Warm
Springs. Low temperatures will range from the mid 20s to the mid
Friday through Saturday. The next storm system will blast through
the Great Basin at a faster pace than the current system. This
should bring another round of rain and snow to the silver state.
Thunderstorms are not favorable with this system as the forcing
is weak and displaced from daytime heating. The system looks to
be trending a bit warmer than before with the colder air delayed
behind the precipitation. This should help to confine the snow to
the mountain ranges. That being said the mountains can receive a
fairly large amount of snow. This warranted a Winter Weather
Advisory for the Ruby and Eastern Humboldt Mountains which are
expecting 6 to 8 inches of snow and White Pine county above 7000
ft which can receive 5 to 9 inches of snow. The precipitation
will begin to tapper off Saturday afternoon starting in the west
and working eastward. High temperatures will be in the 50s. Low
temperatures will be in the 30s.
Sunday. Sunday will start fairly dry with the departure of the
previous storm system. However another storm system will begin to
intrude into the silver state late in the morning. This will at
first bring denser cloud cover across the state with showers
starting during the afternoon hours. These will spread from west
to east to cover the silver state as Sunday progresses. There
should be a brief warm up with the approach of this system with
highs in the 40`s to 50`s possible reaching low 60`s in spots.
.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday.
A a digging trough is progged to barrel into the Great Basin
region bringing a mix of higher elevation snow, valley rain and/or
mix for the entire CWA Sunday night through Tuesday and possible
thunderstorms primarily across northwest Nevada on Monday as a
cold front progresses southeastward across the state. The
incipient low progress southeastward from northern California and
traverse far southern Nevada while deepening. Models are in
fairly good agreement on the track which places northern Nevada
under a deformation zone Monday night and Tuesday. Dynamics should
be in place for a prolonged higher elevation snow and steady
valley rain/mix event. However, models differ in moisture
availability with ECMWF showing a much drier scenario than GFS or
even GFS mean accumulated precipitation for the late Monday early
Tuesday time frame. However, appears advisory level snow amounts
are likely above 6500 feet with 6 to 12 inches in the Rubies,
higher terrain of northern Elko county with slightly lesser
amounts across the Humboldt- Toiyabe National Forest areas of
northern Nye and southern Lander and Eureka counties. One quarter
to 0.40 inches of liquid precip is expected in valley locations
through the event.
A short ridging pattern with dry conditions pushes through the
region Wednesday before another trough descends from the Pacific
Northwest into the state bringing another round of valley rain
and mountain snow Thursday.
High temperatures will generally be in the 40s and 50s in the
valleys with lows Monday morning in the mid 30s dropping to the
mid to upper 20s to low 30s by Monday night lasting through the
middle of next week.
.AVIATION...Fair weather stratocumulus in the wake of a storm
system is streaming southeastward across the state. Gusty
northwest winds at KTPH up to 30 kt will diminish late this
afternoon. Turbulent conditions associated with downslope winds are
possible on leeward slopes of ranges, especially east of the Ruby
Mountains, through the evening hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will exist at all terminals. A storm system will once again lower
CIGs bringing more valley rain, mountain snow and en route
mountain obscurations to the state Friday afternoon into
.HYDROLOGY...Another moist storm system will bring more valley
rain and mountain snow over the weekend. The rainfall could
exacerbate flooding issues and there will be a couple more storms
between now and next week with the strongest system Sunday night
into Tuesday morning. Rivers and creeks will likely rise with the
Bruneau River: Moderate flooding continues.
Humboldt River - Palisade: Minor flooding continues but may rise
to near moderate stage next week.
Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: Moderate flooding continues.
Humboldt River - Comus: Moderate flooding continues.
Marys River: Minor flooding is occurring and the river is
approaching moderate flood stage.
Salmon Falls Creek: Approaching minor flood stage.
All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood stage.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 5 PM PDT Saturday
for Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-White Pine County.