Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 010330
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
830 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. MANY VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A HARD FREEZE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER ELKO
COUNTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME ELKO COUNTY AS WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BELOW CRITERIA. HOWEVER...IT`S STILL EXPECTED TO BE
BREEZY AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 232 PM /

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NW NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL RACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. PREFRONTAL WARMING
HAS ALLOWED LOWER 70S TO RETURN (FOR ONE MORE DAY) THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A WARM, WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE, WILL KEEP WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 3 PM THROUGH SUNSET, WITH GUSTS NEAR
45-50 MPH ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHEST
GUST HERE AT THE OFFICE THROUGH 230 PM HAS BEEN 43 MPH. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST ARE LIKELY. VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE/DUAL POL RADAR
IMAGERY ALL SHOW DUST ENROUTE FROM THE WESTERN NEVADA SINKS, SO
LEFT IN THE GRIDS THROUGH EVENING. RADAR/SATELLITE ALSO REVEALING
WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR EUREKA AND WESTERN WHITE PINE
COUNTY. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WITH LIFTED INDEX TO -1 AND
CAPE OF 100 J/KG. KEPT POPS VERY LOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY, SINCE EVEN
IF ISOLATED CONVECTION MATURES, DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY VIRGA.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER. AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL OFFER
A REALITY CHECK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF APRIL. THE GOOD NEWS, A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE, AND MUCH LESS WIND, EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AS NEXT MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 5 PM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DELIVERS A ROBUST REINFORCEMENT
OF COLD AIR, WITH VORT MAX NEAR NYE COUNTY BY 5 AM THURSDAY. NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR LINCOLN COUNTY, KEEPING N/NE WINDS
ELEVATED ALL NIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, FROM
TONOPAH TO ELY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DYNAMICALLY QUITE STRONG, BUT
ALSO STARVED FOR MOISTURE. A STRAY SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OVER NEVADA. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MEASURABLE SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW. INCREASED SNOW PROBABILITY AND AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS FOR WHITE
PINE COUNTY. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS OF WHITE PINE COUNTY
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 INCHES, WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK. DO NOT FORESEE
THE NEED FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS
LITTLE EVENT BEARS SOME WATCHING.

THURSDAY...THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST, WITH THICKNESS ONLY
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT AND EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE GENERATING LIFTED INDICES
DOWN TO -2C. REALIGNED POPS TO HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY,
AND CONTINUED THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. QPF,
UNFORTUNATELY, WILL BE VERY LIMITED.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...CLEARING AND COLD. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE STRONG, WITH A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN
NEVADA UNDER A CLEAR SKY. TEENS WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY MORNING, AND
WILL POSE A DAMAGING FREEZE FOR THE BLOSSOMING VEGETATION.
FORECASTING 16 DEGREES AT ELKO, WHICH IS ONLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
RECORD LOW FOR APRIL 3RD.

FRIDAY...SUNNY AND MILDER, WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALLOWING UPPER
50S TO RETURN.

TURNER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FORECAST PERIOD
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A TREND TOWARDS A NEUTRAL PNA. EXPECT
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTPAC. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WENT
FOR A HIGH OF 62 IN WINNEMUCCA AND 61F IN ELKO. THE MEAN MAX TEMP
FOR ELKO ON APRIL 4TH IS 56F AND 60F FOR WMC. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON EASTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY RETURNING
TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT MOISTURE VERY LIMITED SO ONLY EXPECTING A
FEW SHOWERS AND VIRGA OVER THE NORTH.

AVIATION...THE MAIN EVENT TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PEAK GUSTS OF 38 MPH POSSIBLE. ALREADY TODAY THE
ASOS AT KWMC HAS GOTTEN 32KT AND KEKO HAS RECEIVED 33KT. THIS IS A
HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION WILL BE BLOWING DUST AT KWMC.

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH, WITH GUSTS NEAR 45
MPH, WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH RH AS LOW AS 5-10%, RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE
ACHIEVED FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. RH WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELKO
COUNTY.

&&

$$

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