Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

000
FXUS65 KLKN 170255
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
755 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER ON THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES WHERE STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...NO THUNDER HAS BEEN SEEN ON RADAR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENT 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTS A WEAK CAP
THAT IS PREVENTING STORMS FROM FORMING...AND SO THEREFORE HAVE
ELIMATED POPS FROM THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 346 PM /

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA MAY SEE SOME HAZY CONDITIONS AS SMOKE FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES DRIFTS OVER THE SIERRA MTS. STILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AS WEAK
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON NO STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO A WEAK CAPPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CELLS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE INVERSION DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEATING/TEMPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR SITUATION WITH
RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WEAK INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE
LEAD TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT MUST PUSH THROUGH A MID-LEVEL CAP
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO DEVELOP. MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL EXPECT THURSDAY
TO BE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORM DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SETTING OFF QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. EASTERN ELKO COUNTY
AND MUCH OF WHITE PINE COUNTY COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG YET FAST MOVING STORMS MOVE SW TO NE
THROUGH THE COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH CAPE SHEAR
AND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ELKO COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS IN
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...PRECIP AND INSTABILITY DECREASES OVER THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING
MAINLY FORM EUREKA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS INTO WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE SRN CA COAST...DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. THEN AS THE UPPER
LOW KICKS OUT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES
INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND NE NV SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS TAKES THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE EC HAS THE LOW STRONGER AND KEEPS IT OVER EASTERN NV
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS THE
BETTER TRACK RECORD RECENTLY...AND DRY OUT THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. JH

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT KELY
..KEKO AND KTPH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 467 AND POSSIBLY 468 REACH
CRITICAL WIND/RH THRESH-HOLDS. SINCE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES. ANOTHER WIND/RH ISSUE MAY SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ZONE 457 ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY
AND HUMIDITIES DECREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECTING BORDERLINE RH LEVELS...WITH JUST HOW CLOSE THIS GETS TO
CRITICAL LEVELS DEPENDING IN LARGE PART HOW QUICKLY HUMIDITIES
LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 457 SHOULD HAVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THIRD CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY TO BE IN ZONES 455 AND 470 WHERE
MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS SHOULD BE WET. THE AREAS JUST TO THE WEST
OF ZONES 455 AND 470 ARE THE CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED
DRY...WHICH INCLUDE ZONES 469 AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES
454 AND 457. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SITUATION THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN MAKE THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS A CONCERN AS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LEVEL OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS PERSIST. ZONES 467 468 AND THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF 454 AND 457 SHOULD ONLY HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/93





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.