Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 221000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS A VERY WELL-DEVELOPED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
FROM NW NEVADA EXTENDING HORIZONTALLY WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC,
LOADED WTIH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND JET STREAM ENERGY. THIS WIND
AND MOISTURE WILL AIM AT NE NEVADA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY.

ATMOSPHERE IN THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING, WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. LIGHT TO MODERATE VALLEY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH 10 AM. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, AND BE INCREASINGLY WIND-DRIVEN AS JET ENERGY ARRIVES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL HOLD NEAR 7000 FEET FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING, IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVER NEVADA BY 10 AM, WITH NAM/GFS
IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING NEAR HURRICANE- FORCE WINDS (60-65 KTS,
70-75 MPH) AT 700 MB, ABOUT 4400 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. MUCH OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL NOT AFFECT THE VALLEYS, BUT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH STRONG
GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD
OF AND NEAR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO RACE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
INSTANTLY CHANGING ALL RAIN TO SNOW. AM CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH
FREEZE POTENTIAL ON ROADWAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AROUND SUNSET)
WHEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FREEZE WET ROADWAYS FROM THIS
MORNING`S RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF ICE FORMATION ON ROADWAYS, SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES
WARRANTS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE NEVADA. THIS, DESPITE
SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL FALL SHORT OF TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR MOST VALLEYS, AND IMPACTS THAT WILL BE LESS WITH REDUCED WEEKEND
TRAVEL AND NO SCHOOL.

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR SE ELKO COUNTY AND
NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE 00Z NAM PROGS
LIFTED INDEX TO -2 AND CAPE UP TO 150 J/KG ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. ANY CONVECTION WILL GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN/SNOWFALL
RATES LOCALLY.

FIREHOSE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS AIMED AT ELKO COUNTY, AND THAT IS
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WORST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR ONE INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ENHANCED
UPSLOPE AMOUNTS ON NW-FACING SLOPES (EG, AUSTIN). ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 1-5
INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT ELKO
PROPER AND NEAR WEST WENDOVER. THESE LOCATIONS DO POORLY IN NW
FLOW EVENTS. IN CONTRAST, NW FLOW UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONG FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (NW WINDS
AT 280 TO 290 DEGREES), SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF LAMOILLE AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RUBY MOUNTAINS REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS EVENT, WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE RUBIES TO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE. AS STATED, WINDS
WILL GUST 60-70 MPH WHILE THIS SNOW IS FALLING. HUNTERS...IT IS
EMPHASIZED THAT DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. TRAVEL WILL
BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE. ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS OF
4-10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON THE INDEPENDENCE AND JARBIDGE
MOUNTAINS, WITH 1-4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS, SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD. AGAIN, WHILE AMOUNTS WILL FALL SHORT OF
TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS, STRONG NW WINDS
WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ON
MOUNTAIN CITY HIGHWAY AND U.S. HIGHWAY 93 THROUGH TONIGHT.

INHERITED WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE WELL-
CONSTRUCTED AND WILL NOT CHANGE. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE RUBIES, INCREASE THE RANGE OF
EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR ELKO COUNTY VALLEYS TO 1-5 INCHES
(ELEVATION/UPSLOPE DEPENDENT), AND INCREASE WIND/WIND GUSTS GRIDS
TODAY. ALSO INCREASED POP GRIDS TO 100% FOR MUCH OF ELKO COUNTY
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END IN THE MORNING.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK, MUCH OF ELKO
COUNTY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ECMWF/NAM IN AGREEMENT PLACING A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR BATTLE
MOUNTAIN MONDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AS A RESULT, WITH LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL DOWN INTO THE TEENS. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY FALLING TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND DRY FOR ALL ZONES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY DEVELOPING
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND SNOW COVER.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE LKN CWFA THERE
TENDS TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DOWNSTREAM
SQUABBLING WITH MODEL AGREEMENT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE CENTERED WELL
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...THERE MAY BE SOME DIRT SKIRTING NORTHEAST
NEVADA. THIS DIRTY FLOW OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PACIFIC RIDGE MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY. WITH A COOL POCKET OF AIR LINGERING...MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL MOVE FROM ABOUT 380 MILES OFFSHORE TO RE-
POSITION NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA STATE LINE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THANKSGIVING DAY. THE RIDGE WILL START DE-AMPLIFYING BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. EARLY
MORNING SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON BLACK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS MORNING TO BEGIN AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO...FOLLOWED BY KELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT KEKO...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. AT KWMC AND KEKO...STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 20-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
BOTH KELY AND KTPH WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/92/92


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