Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 281007
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
307 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS NEVADA TODAY. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO
THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LINGER IN CENTRAL NEVADA FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
LINGERING SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVER NEVADA
TODAY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF WARM AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS...SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS GETTING WELL INTO THE 70S.

TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH THE RIDGE PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING TEMPERATURES MAY STAY A BIT
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS AS RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE REDUCED.

SHORTWAVE ENTERS NEVADA FROM THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE ISN`T A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE
WITH THE SYSTEM...PROGS ALL SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRIMARILY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CENTRAL NEVADA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET ANY
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY IN MOST PLACES WITH THE TROUGH MOVING IN.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT ANOTHER
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN
CENTRAL NEVADA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ON THE PROGS SO EXPECT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE FRONT HAVING MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN
NEVADA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH THE FRONT HAVING
WEAKENED TO LITTLE MORE THAN A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. RCM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA WITH A VERY
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BE
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SEEP INTO THE REGION. THE NV CONVERGENCE
ZONE...ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IN CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN
GOES DOWN. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS TEXAS...WITH
COMPUTER SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE RESULTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THE NVCZ WILL AGAIN SETUP AND WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY ABOUT 1 TO 2C...WHICH
TRANSLATES INTO AFTERNOON HIGHS GOING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH RESULTING WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING EACH AFTERNOON AS THE
NVCZ NUDGES SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/86/86



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