Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 270901
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
201 AM PDT Sat Aug 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms are possible across White Pine
and northern Nye counties this afternoon. Otherwise, mainly dry
and warm conditions are expected through most of next week.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Thunderstorms tapered off
over northeast Nye and White Pine Counties around 06z last
evening with showers dissipating around midnight. Skies are mostly
clear north of highway 50 this morning. There are a few high
clouds moving into Humboldt County. The models are in good
agreement this morning with the general trough pattern. The exact
position of the trough axis waffles a bit north-south from model
to model and run to run of the models. There will be a few
thunderstorms popping up south of highway 50 today with dry
conditions expected elsewhere.
The current low pressure trough hanging over the west will very
slowly move south and east. As low pressure at the base of the
trough centers over southern California today, moisture will
continue to stream into southern Nevada, affecting areas south of
highway 50 within the LKN CWFA. The trough will move well east of
the state by Sunday, and dry conditions will prevail all around.
High temperatures will rise into the 80s to around 90 degrees.
Lows will generally be in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday.
Sunday...the upper level ridge that was in place across west
CONUS will progress eastward as a long trough deepens offshore in
the pacific. Tuesday and into wednesday...a short wave trough
rounding the base of the long wave trough will pass through
Nevada. The models are in better agreement with the timing of the
passage of the short wave trough with the gfs solution of Tuesday
passage becoming more favored with progressive model runs. The
short wave may cause some isolated showers and thunderstorms
across northern Nevada as well herald the return of gust winds
across Nevada. The moisture will linger in eastern Nevada once the
shortwave pushes off to the northeast which may cause some
isolated convection. On Wednesday and into thursday the long wave
trough will move onshore and continue to deepen which will
increase the pressure gradient across Nevada. The tight pressure
gradient will cause fairly robust southwesterly gusty winds across
Nevada especially during the afternoon hours. White Pine and
northern Nye Counties will experience the strongest winds from
this system. This may pose a fire hazard as the high winds will be
present with low RH values across Nevada.
.AVIATION...VFR continues at all sites through the forecast period. There will
be some gusty afternoon winds at KEKO and KWMC.
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop across Fire Zones 455 and 457 today as a low pressure
trough slowly moves through southern Nevada. No storms are
expected from Sunday through the middle of next week.