Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 091020
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
220 AM PST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A persistent flow of Pacific moisture into the Great
Basin region will help create an active weather pattern through
the upcoming weekend. The mountains of Elko County are expected
to accumulate over two more feet of snow by Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Temperatures are at freezing
or above at most locations in northern Nevada this morning and
shower activity is occurring primarily over Elko County east of
Elko. Due to the westerly flow aloft, Elko County will continue
to get surges of moisture even as a warm front pushes through
northern Nevada today. Models seem to be in good agreement for the
short term period and where the emphasis of moisture will have
the most impact and, although the GFS model has been persistent
with advertising a greater amount of QPF than other models, its
not exactly out to lunch, either.

Today through Saturday night. We are in the midst of a very
active weather pattern with a periodically intense westerly
moisture flow. Temperatures at the surface will be above freezing
through most of Saturday afternoon, then begin to dip once again.
Precipitation in the form of snow could be substantial above 6000
feet through Saturday night and mountain tops in Elko County could
receive a couple more feet of snow. A Winter Storm Warning remains
in effect. Low temperatures will be in the 30s tonight and dip
into the 20s Saturday night. High temperatures will rise into the
40s.

Sunday. The westerly flow will continue however on the latest
model runs, Sunday looks like a relatively dry day. The forecast
will still mention precipitation chances since the fast flow aloft
could easily change timing with upcoming model runs. High
temperatures will be in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday.

The models are still in agreement with an active weather pattern
for the week. Initially the pattern should be zonal flow and some
embedded short waves that will persist till Tuesday. On wednesday
significant model discrepancy begins between the GFS and EC on
the pattern and timing of features. However both models roughly agree
on building a trough off the west coast that eventually moves
onshore.

The active pattern will see snow and rain showers across the state
through next week. Sunday night will see the lightest
precipitation ahead of the active week with most of the
precipitation on the northern Nevada border region. On Monday the
jet will intensify as a quick moving trough passes over the
mountains west. This will funnel moisture across the silver state
bringing wide spread snow and rain showers that will last into
Tuesday. Accumulations in the valleys could be 2-5 inches as snow
levels will be low and there will be ample moisture. Accumulations
in the mountains will be far more significant with up to a foot
of snow possible. Wednesday will see the system and jet move off
to the east which should take the moisture with it leaving mostly
light residual showers.

With significant model disagreement starting on Wednesday the
uncertainty on the timing and impact of features increases
greatly. The GFS solution of a another trough moving across the
silver state Thursday and Friday is favored due to the better
inter model run consistency. This system may bring another round
of snow fall across the state which could result in several inches
of accumulation in the valley and much more so in the mountains.
However the impact and evolution of this system is subject to
change as the models come into agreement with a solution.

&&

.AVIATION...Rain showers will continue through the day at KWMC
and KEKO with the return of rain snow mix at KEKO in the evening.
Isolated precipitation remains possible at KELY during the
morning hours before drying out. Rain and snow showers will
return at at KELY during the evening hours. The rain and snow
showers can bring low visibility MVFR or less conditions. Some
isolated showers may make it as far south as KTPH during the
evening hours. Low ceilings of MVFR and possibly lower will also
return during the evening hours for KELY, KEKO, and KWMC which may
also cause mountain obscurations.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Northern Elko
County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range.

&&

$$

92/99/99



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