Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 281000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY
THIS MORNING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALL ACROSS THE
LKN CWFA ARE IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ELKO AREA AND RADAR INDICATES ANOTHER AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARDS ELKO COUNTY FROM IDAHO...TWIN
FALLS IS RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST ELKO
COUNTY THIS MORNING AS ONE MORE WEAK VORT FEATURE BRUSHES THE NE
PART OF THE STATE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS. CLOUDINESS WILL PREVENT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP BUT
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CRUISE ALONG IN THE 40S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DIP MODESTLY INTO THE 20S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SCOOP UP SOME
PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA THEN SOUTHERN
NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND
EASTWARD. THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EARLY
TIMING FOR SHOWERS CREEPING NORTHWARD TO HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
MORNING HOWEVER THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS MORE LIKE AN AFTERNOON
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW...SNOW LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 6500 TO
7000 FEET ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES TO BETWEEN 6000 AND
6500 FEET ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. THUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
THE NORM. THEN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS SNOW LEVELS DIP TO AROUND
6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

THE MILD WINTER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
BOTH AFTERNOON HIGH AND MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL.

ODD PATTERN FOR JANUARY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM ELKO TO YUMA, ARIZONA PULLING IN COPIOUS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS UTAH LATE FRIDAY, WITH THE NW EDGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IMPACTING THE SE CWA, MAINLY EASTERN WHITE
PINE AND NE NYE COUNTIES. ALONG WITH WFOS SLC AND LAS VEGAS,
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SE CWA. MENTIONED A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THICKNESSES FALL
OFF TO NEAR 546 DM WHILE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS EXPECTED.

CLOSED LOW FORMS NEAR THE GRAND CANYON SATURDAY MORNING, AND SINKS
SOUTHWARD, ENDING UP WEST OF TUCSON, ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL PULL PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA, AND KEPT ALL ZONES
DRY. THE MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNABATED FOR THE LAST DAY OF
JANUARY, IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE PACIFIC, WITH MAXIMUM
AMPLIFICATION ON SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGE FLATTENS TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW
BY AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT ALL ZONES DRY WITH LOWER 50S MORE WIDESPREAD.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL MONDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING DIRTY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, AND HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING SOME TO THE SW.
ALL MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY, SO
INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED MILD ON GROUNDHOG DAY, WITH VALLEY MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 50.

TUESDAY ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIKE WINTER, AS 00Z
ECMWF DIRECTS COLDER NW FLOW AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS NE NEVADA.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES PER ECMWF GUIDANCE. MENTIONED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. AGAIN, NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. BT

&&

.AVIATION...IMPROVED FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. ALL TERMINALS
DRY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS NEVADA. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM KEKO TO KELY
THROUGH 18Z, THEN VFR AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL SITES. CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOIST FROM RECENT RAINFALL, SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/99/99


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