Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 232155
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
255 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BRIEF BREAK THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING...ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THURSDAY CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SOME POCKETS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA
WITH LI`S ZERO TO NEAR -1 SO INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER IN
FORECAST. OTHERWISE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY DEEP TROUGH WITH 500MB LOW FORMING NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL DIG TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA CREATING FGEN FROM SOUTHERN
ELKO COUNTY TO CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE A SWATH OF QPF IS FORECASTED
BY ALL THE MODELS WITH DECENT RAINFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH .10"
TO .25" COMMON ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS NEAR A HALF INCH.
SOME INSTABILITY WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION SO MENTIONED ISOLD THUNDER BUT HARD TO PIN POINT EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AROUND WHITE PINE
AND NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB WIND
STANDARD DEVIATION OF 2 TO 3 AND 90 AGL WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE TWO ZONES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -6 TO -8 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS 542MB LOW DIPS NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA. FGEN LOOKS FAIRLY
DECENT FROM RUBY MOUNTAINS TO CENTRAL NEVADA SO EXPECT A GOOD .25"
TO .50" OF QPF OR BETTER IN VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
TRANSLATING TO DECENT SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IN MANY CENTRAL
NEVADA VALLEYS ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR AUSTIN...EUREKA AND ELY.
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW KICKS EAST WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UNSTABLE COLD AIR IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.  500MB PATTERN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TRANSFER FROM PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO QUITE...WARM...AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.  FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH STRONG RIDGING BEING PROGGED BY ALL
GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE MEANS NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE AND TEMPS RUN NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

SUNDAY...WILL BE THE ONLY DAY DURING THE EXTENDED WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE 500MB SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.  THIS FEATURE WILL COINCIDE WITH MAX DAYTIME
HEATING...THUS LIFTED INDEX VALUES WILL RUN BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS VALLEY FLOORS WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  A FEW GRAUPEL SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A
FAVORITE APRIL TRADITION ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT OF NEVADA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...BUT IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AS HEIGHTS RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST...DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING 500MB RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
BACK INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 6K THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH AS PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION.
WEATHER WILL BECOME UNSETTLED BY FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

90/95/95





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