Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 290930
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL ENTER NEVADA
TODAY...PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WEST BREEZES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND SUNDAY.

VERY UNUSUAL LATE SUMMER 548 DM UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY THIS
MORNING WEST OF OREGON, WITH EXPANSIVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE
ENTIRE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS TROUGH ENERGY WILL ENCROACH
UPON NEVADA TODAY, PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE GREAT BASIN.
MODELS CONSISTENT PORTRAYING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ALIGN
ALONG A JACKPOT-ELKO-AUSTIN LINE AT 5 PM TODAY. TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE SUMMER, WITH
700 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C IN ELKO COUNTY, FALLING TO 7C IN NW HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. A LEGITIMATE COLD FRONT FOR SURE.

PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT TODAY WILL BE THE WIND. SW WINDS
OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, BOTH
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON PASSES, SUMMITS AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST LIKELY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED PREFRONTAL, WITH
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS WHITE PINE, SE EUREKA, AND NYE COUNTIES
FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES FOR TWO REASONS. 1) WINDS EVEN CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE RARE IN LATE SUMMER, AND GUSTS WILL AFFECT
OUTDOOR PLANS, AND 2) FEEL MOS OUTPUT FOR CENTRAL NEVADA IS A BIT
LOW, GIVEN A 998 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR WENDOVER AT 5 PM.

INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PREFRONTAL WARMING WILL SQUEEZE OUT SOME MORE 90S, AND THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW MORE HEATING.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS...NAM/HRRR DID A GREAT JOB WITH CONVECTIVE
PLACEMENT FOR FRIDAY, SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FOR TODAY, FOCUSING
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY, BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, GIVEN FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND JET SUPPORT.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA BY 5 AM, WITH
THE BOUNDARY PULLING UP STATIONARY ACROSS WHITE PINE/NYE COUNTIES
BY 5 PM. NAM FORECASTS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE SE ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED INDEX TO -2, SO INCLUDED AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION. MOISTURE REALLY DEGRADES, WITH PW STRUGGLING TO
REMAIN AROUND 1/2 INCH, SO ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY.

SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...DRIER AND PLEASANTLY COOLER AIR,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FALLING 10-12 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S
READINGS. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT 15-25 MPH.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES WILL CONSIST OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY /MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/ AND A MARKED COOL DOWN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
LATE NEXT WEEK.

LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE SHOWS MAINLY RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST WHILE AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BEFORE MOVING INLAND DURING THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE IN A POSITION
WITH GENERALLY A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THEN THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.

THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION INDICATES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLITUDE TO
THE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. IN FACT...THE GFS HEIGHT FIELD LOWER TO
564DM AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES GOING WELL
BELOW NORMAL SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST.  89

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL
BE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR PRE AND POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY FOR THE
TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BLOWING DUST MAY LOWER VSBY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NEVADA DURING THE 11 AM TO 8 PM TIME FRAME TODAY. WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS FWZ 455/457 THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MIN RH CONTINUES
TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE, HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND THE THRESHOLD OF 15%. AT ANY RATE, THE DANGER OF FIRE
SPREAD WILL INCREASE SHARPLY WITH THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD ARE URGED TO USE
CAUTION. ACROSS NORTHERN FWZ, SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS, BUT MIN RH WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AT
15-20%.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS ELKO COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LAL 3
FOR NE NEVADA VALLEYS, LAL 4 ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
SW WINDS, MAY POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WEST BREEZES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTHERN LANDER AND SOUTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/89/89/99


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