Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 282213
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
313 PM PDT Tue Jun 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture and a weak disturbance brings a
chance for thunderstorms across the region through Friday. The
exception will be across Humboldt county where storms are expected
east of highway 95. The best threat for storm occurs over central
and east central Nevada this evening and Wednesday, but expanding
across northeast Nevada on Thursday.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday.
Weak upper level energy will be positioned over central Nevada for
the next two days, providing a little extra lift to the
potentially unstable air mass. PWATs still trending higher over
central part of the state, with this moisture creeping northward.
The air mass will be transitioning into an environment that favors
some wet storms by Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, primarily
over the central part of the state, but also the higher
elevations. With regard to temperatures, expect slight cooling
with the increased cloud cover and slightly higher humidity
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday.
Mid-level moisture trapped under the flat ridge that will sit
over the western u.s. late this week will keep some showers and
thunderstorms over central and eastern portions of the cwa through
Saturday. Temperatures to remain above normal through next week.
Thunderstorm activity will taper off Thursday evening...however
isolated showers may linger Thursday night over the eastern half
of the cwa where dew points will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s
while weak instability remains.
Afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected on Friday
over most of the cwa...the exception being western and central
Humboldt county. Drier and more stable air begins to push in from
the west on Saturday limiting storms to the eastern half of the
cwa. Highs should warm a couple to a few degrees Sunday through
the middle of next week with dry conditions across the region.
.AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorms will continue across east-
central Nevada into this evening with some light showers possible
overnight. As far as probabilities of TSRA this evening...KELY
would be around 35 percent...while KTPH would be around 15
percent. Storms redevelop late Wednesday morning and early
afternoon over east-central Nevada then expand northward into the
late afternoon. Similar odds for TSRA on Wednesday across central
Nevada...however should see around a 15 percent chance for KEKO up
to the north.
Expect a mixture of dry and wet thunderstorms for the next two
days. With a trend of increasing moisture combined with weak
disturbances in the upper atmosphere, thunderstorms may become
more wet on Thursday than Wednesday. Where fuels are critical,
only isolated dry thunderstorms are expected, possibly as early as
this evening for fire weather zone 470. The majority of
thunderstorms are expected to occur where fuels are non critical,
or across fire weather zone 455 and 457. With PWATs reaching 0.75
to 1.00 across northeast/east central Nevada, some isolated
moderate showers (producing wetting rains) will be possible.
Thunderstorms becomes isolated west of the Independence mountains,
with no storms expected for the next two days over zone 467.
The air mass turns stable and drier toward the end of the upcoming
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Northeastern Nye
County-Northwestern Nye County.