068
FXUS65 KLKN 132040
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
140 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A quick moving upper level trough and associated cool
front are generating chances at scattered shower and thunderstorms
for NE Nevada this evening and Tuesday, before quieter weather
moves in for the remainder of the week. Another system will
approach the silver state next weekend but impacts remain
uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Monday and Tuesday

Upper level trough is currently transiting the Pacific NW, and is
forecast continue to influence Nevada through Tuesday evening.
This system is pushing a front through NE Nevada this afternoon
and will reach central NV Tuesday morning before washing out late
Tuesday. The boundary will serve as a focus for a 20% to 50%
chance at some scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern
NV. However, this front is basically a wind shift line as
temperatures behind the front wont be much cooler. Amounts will be
light, and not every one will see moisture, but up to 0.10 of
rain could be received under stronger showers. Temperatures will
remain above average running in the low 70 to low 80s for highs
and dropping into the low 40s to low 50s for overnight lows. Winds
ahead of the front will be more westerly to WSW at 10 to 20 MPH
with gusts up to 30 MPH. After the front pushes through winds will
shift back to the NW at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH
possible, before winds start to relax Tuesday evening into the
overnight.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday.

Dry condtions with north to northwest surface winds each day will
persist through Friday across the area as a ridge of high
pressure dominates the regional pattern. Temperatures will climb
comfortably into the 70s and 80s during the day but remaining cool
at night in the 40s and even some lower 50s.

Model guidance brings a low pressure system closer to the
southwest CA coast by the weekend. THis may bring up a bit of
Pacific moisture into Nevada beginning on Saturday, affecting the
local weather pattern Sunday and MOnday as well with showers and
thunderstorms. However, significant widespread rainfall is not
expected. Probability of any rainfall rather low, generally 25% or
below for Saturday with slightly better opportunities for showers
Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will cool as the low pressure
system and cloud cover affect the state. Highs will still reach
into the 70s with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS along with gusty outflow winds are the primary
aviation threats for KELY and KEKO through 02Z. High-based showers
and thunderstorms will keep ceilings well above 3000 feet
resulting in VFR conditions for all TAF sites through tonight.
West-northwest winds of 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots are
expected at all TAF sites through the afternoon, diminishing
between 01Z-03Z. Convective showers and TS threat move southward
for Tuesday affecting mainly KELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams,
creeks, and rivers throughout northern Nevada due to seasonal
snow melt. Although transiting upper system moving through tonight
and Tuesday looks to have little to no impact on flows. Warm
temperatures in the low 70 to low 80s will start to erode the
higher elevation snow pack, but overnight temperature will be cool
enough to keep the melting from progressing to fast.

The Humboldt River at Comus is in action stage and is forecast to
remain in action stage through Tuesday, but is forecast to drop
below action stage beginning Wednesday morning.

Other rivers and creeks that are showing signs of increased flows
are Lamoille Creek and the Jarbidge River. Though stream gage
heights are not at bankfull stage, these streams are flowing fast
and cold. With the warm temperatures expected this week, these
stream heights will continue rising.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

98/93/93/98