Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 082256
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
588DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALIES FOR NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FIELDS ARE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL... WHICH
TYPICALLY COINCIDES WITH RECORD HIGH VALUES. TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S ARE COMING IN ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN PLACES LIKE BIG SUR
(86)... THE SONOMA COAST(80 AT SEA RANCH)... AND THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA (85 AT PEBBLE BEACH). OFFICIAL RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH OFFICIAL RECORDS BROKEN AT OAKLAND
AIRPORT (79 VS 70)... OAKLAND MUSEUM (78 VS 77)... SAN JOSE (76 VS
75)... MONTEREY (83 VS 81)... AND TIED AT SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN
(74) AS OF 2PM WITH POTENTIALLY MORE RECORDS TO COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE BEING ENHANCED FURTHER BY
THE RELATIVELY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THESE WINDS COMPRESS AND THUS WARM THE ATMOSPHERE AS THEY
DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. FOR EXAMPLE... OAKLAND AIRPORT SHOT UP TO
79F FROM 68F IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION BACKED
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST... INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF WARM
DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS HAD PREVIOUSLY
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST... AS IS EVIDENT BY THE
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVIOUSLY NOTED THERE... HOWEVER THE
THERMAL TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED JUST INLAND LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
BUT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WARMING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUT BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN TODAYS WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LEADING TO GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THAT SAID... FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE EXTREME NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10 AM PST MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH EASTERLIES GENERALLY BLO 10 KTS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THROUGH CARQUINEZ STRAIT...AFFECTING KAPC...AS WELL AS KLVK AND
THE SALINAS VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO LIGHT ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE WITH HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR STRATUS AND FOG AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS KMTR. KSNS
MODERATE SE WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: WEYGAND
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


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