Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 262343
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:45 PM PDT THURSDAY... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND 80S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. AS OF 2PM... DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS RUNNING 77F
WHICH IS 11F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT 2PM. SALINAS IS 88F WHICH IS
14 DEGREES ABOVE 2PM YESTERDAY. MESONET STATIONS NEAR CUPERTINO
SHOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 86F AS OF 2PM... WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POCKET WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE BAY AREA. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS OF
WARMING ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS TO 15-16CAT 850MB. TEMPERATURES
AT 850MB HAVE RISEN 4-6C OVER THE LAST 14 HOURS AND ARE CORRESPONDING
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 25F
DEGREES WARMER AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARLY
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH TYPICALLY
CORRESPONDS TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. AS OF 2PM... RECORD TEMPERATURES
ARE IMMINENT AT SAN JOSE...SALINAS...NAPA...AND GILROY. OAKLAND
MUSEUM IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AS WELL...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL NOT SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL WARMING AFTER THE NEXT HOUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN. REGIONS IN THE NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST
COOLING INTO FRIDAY WHEREAS SAN BENITO COUNTY WILL REMAIN THE
WARMEST.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...
AND THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN INTO
THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH BRINGING
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST
SEABREEZE WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

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