Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291855
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1155 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM
POST-TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WILL
PRODUCE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:59 AM PDT FRIDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE CURRENTLY
STREAMING FROM POST-TROPICAL STORM MARIE. THIS IS HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT THERE. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
LIMITING BURNOFF OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. NAM 12 200-400 MB RH IS SHOWING THE CLOUDS WELL AND IT SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE ARE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS MOST OF OUR COASTAL AREAS PLUS ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT
FORMER HURRICANE MARIE CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS AND LESS ORGANIZED
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT IN ADVANCE AND TOWARD OUR CWA.
THIS MORE MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS TODAY
AND EVEN A BIT OF MUGGINESS ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO WHERE WE WERE YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH THE LAYER OF CLOUDS COULD
KEEP A SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER
80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY, A LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY PLUS A LITTLE COOLING ON
SATURDAY FOR FAR INLAND AREAS. A DRY NW FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS
OUR AREA AS THE LONGWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC.

THE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THAT TIME ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ONCE AGAIN FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION -- ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.

RIGHT NOW, NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHWARD MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
SEE PRESENT EXTENT OF STRATUS COVERAGE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...SURVEY OF LATEST ASOS REPORTS AND WEBCAM VIEWS INDICATES
GENERAL CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL
PATCHES NEAR THE NORTH AND EAST SHORES OF SFO BAY. ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KOAK ARE NOW REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT CLEARING
THERE TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AT THE SFO BAY AREA
TERMINALS BUT WITH CIG RETURN AROUND SUNSET AT KMRY AND KSNS.

SOME HIGH ALTITUDE RETURNS NOTED RECENT HOURS FROM KMUX
RADAR...INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF SOME VIRGA WITH THE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH. DO NOT HOWEVER EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO REACH THE GROUND.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH. WEST WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT GUSTING TO NEAR
25 KT MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BUT THEN EARLY EVENING ONSET OF IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:59 AM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RESULTING IN INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: BLIER

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