Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 191827
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1127 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY SKIES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. PLEASANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:22 AM PDT FRIDAY...SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT
QUICKLY TODAY AS YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH LIGHT NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL FILL IN OVER THE AREA ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH MODELS ALLOW YESTERDAYS STORM
SYSTEM...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TOMORROW PROMOTING PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.
THE LOW PUSHES OFF INTO NEVADA SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BOTH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS APPROACHING TROUGH AND
A DEEPENING LOW OFF OF THE BC COAST. THIS DEEPENING LOW WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MID WEEK AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DOES A GOOD JOB
DEPICTING THIS WEATHER SCENARIO SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:25 AM PDT FRIDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BURN
OFF AT THIS HOUR WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE DAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DIFFICULT CALL TONIGHT WITH SOME GUIDANCE BRINGING CLOUDS BACK
VERY EARLY (POSSIBLY 02-03Z). MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
01Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT POINT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 02Z THEN AFTER THAT SOME
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN EARLY RETURN AROUND 03Z. DECIDED TO GO
HALF WAY BETWEEN THAT AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A BKN015 AT 05Z.
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KT AFTER 22Z. WORTH NOTING THAT
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRPORT.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THOSE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR
FORECAST TO RETURN BY 04Z. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 03Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:25 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE
AND STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS INTO THE EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

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