Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
438 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. STRONG WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS A
FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO
THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S. LIGHTER WINDS
SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CONTINUED DRY. NEXT TROUGH
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY ABOUT NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:32 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1200
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS NOTED
LAST NIGHT WE HAVE GALES BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN AND ITS BEEN NOTED
THAT TWO OF OUR COASTAL BUOYS ARE NOW SHOWING SST AT 49 DEGREES
WITH HALF MOON BAY BUOY NOW DIPPING TO 50. SPRING TIME IS OFTEN
WHEN WE SEE OUR COLDEST SST BUT ITS BEEN AWHILE SINCE THE OCEAN
SST HAVE BEEN THIS COLD. ANYWAY THESE COLD TEMPS ARE IDEAL FOR
STRATUS PRODUCTION OVER THE OCEAN AND WERE SEEING MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS INUNDATED EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS IT LOOKS
LIKE A NICE FRIDAY ON TAP TO WIND OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES...60S A FEW MILES INLAND
AND LOTS OF 70S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

MODELS THEN DRIVE A POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARDS
RENO BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GOOD UPPER SUPPORT FOR BRINGING STRONG
WINDS TO THE BAY AREA HILLS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY AREA HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET FROM 11 PM FRIDAY THROUGH 10 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING BUT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED WITH SOME BUFFER TIMING. STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
FIRST SHOW UP IN THE NAPA HILLS AND AROUND MT DIABLO. COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AND DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE 700-925
MB LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS ALOFT SURFACING OVER THE HIGHER
RIDGELINES ABOVE 1500 FEET WHERE GUSTS TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. BELOW 1000 FEET WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND NO
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SUN COMES UP AND THE MORNING INVERSIONS MIX OUT SUSPECT WE`LL SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND OAKLAND AND THE
DELTA.

AFTER SOME BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSION
LEADING TO AFTERNOON READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
BAY AREA DESPITE MARGINALLY WARM 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 13 CELSIUS.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY BUT OFFSHORE WINDS LOOK
MUCH LIGHTER THAT DAY AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING SATURDAY AS
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND. NONETHELESS SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE
A NICE BAY AREA AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF READINGS IN THE 70S AND
80S AND LITTLE OR NO MARINE LAYER OF NOTE...EVEN AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY SOME COASTAL STRATUS.

MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING WEDS
INDUCING A COOLING TREND BACK TO BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AS
CORE OF LOW REACHES THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP AN UPPER LOW IN
THE VICINITY OF SAN FRANCISCO THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IMPLYING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT FRIDAY...A HIGH CLOUD DECK IS
CURRENTLY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW SET TO SLIDE IN EAST OF THE SIERRA LATER
TODAY. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGERING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING... ESPECIALLY IN THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY... WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 KT POSBL AROUND THE REGION AFTER 3PM LST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSBL THRU 16-17Z. STRONG WEST
WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT OR HIGHER AFTER 03Z SAT.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN
RETURN LATER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:29 AM PDT FRIDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FROM PESCADERO NORTHWARD THROUGH PT ARENA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL. STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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