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000
FXUS66 KMTR 092356
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
356 PM PST MON DEC 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST MONDAY...COLD WEATHER CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY WITH SO FAR ONE RECORD LOW SET IN SAN JOSE
(25 COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 26). WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF MORE RECORDS WERE SET ONCE ALL OF THE NUMBERS COME IN FOR
THE 0Z RTP (SFONPWMTR) PRODUCT. STAY TUNED! TEMPS DID WARM BACK
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY AND ARE RUNNING 2 TO 5 DEGREES
AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN MOST SPOTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT WARMING FOR
TOMORROW MORNING. FEEL THAT ENOUGH SPOTS WILL END UP HITTING
FREEZING INCLUDING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST TO PUT ALMOST ALL ZONES
INTO ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING. WILL KEEP SAN FRANCISCO OUT OF THE
FREEZE WARNING, ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE LOWER 30S IN A FEW
POCKETS SUCH AS AROUND GOLDEN GATE PARK.

ALL SIGNS POINT TO GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA AND 850 MB TEMPS RISE.
BY THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY (IN
FACT LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALMOST
ALL SPOTS). COMPUTER MODELS DO INDICATE A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACNW ON THURSDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO BRUSH ACROSS NORCAL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
REDUCE POPS FOR OUR CWA WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
REMAIN IN CHARGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. NO SIGN OF A
PRECIP BREAK THOUGH AS THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS KEEP ANY
RAINFALL BASICALLY OUT OF CALIFORNIA. 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS
HAVE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROJECTED. IF
THE 384 HOUR GFS DEPICTION FOR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION VERIFIES,
WE WILL MAKE IT TO CHRISTMAS WITHOUT ANY PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:56 PM PST MONDAY...DRY. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS ALONG WITH
THE YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

                     MONDAY       TUESDAY
                     DEC 9TH      DEC 10TH
-------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD.........   19 (1972)    22 (1932)
SAN RAFAEL........   23 (1972)    23 (1972)
NAPA..............   19 (1932)    18 (1932)
SAN FRANCISCO.....   30 (1972)    32 (1972)
SFO AIRPORT.......   24 (1972)    29 (1972)
DOWNTOWN OAKLAND..   26 (1972)    29 (1972)
OAKLAND AIRPORT....  26 (1972)    27 (1972)
RICHMOND..........   22 (1972)    28 (1972)
LIVERMORE.........   18 (1972)    20 (1972)
MOUNTAIN VIEW.....   28 (1951)    29 (1972)
SAN JOSE..........   25 (2013)    24 (1972)
GILROY............   20 (1972)    23 (1978)
MONTEREY..........   23 (1972)    27 (1972)
SANTA CRUZ........   23 (1972)    27 (1972)
SALINAS...........   24 (1972)    31 (1972)
SALINAS AIRPORT...   25 (1972)    30 (1972)
KING CITY.........   16 (1956)    21 (1956)

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...FREEZE WARNING...ALL ZONES EXCEPT SAN FRANCISCO

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
CLIMATE: AC/DYKEMA

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