Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 311103
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH CLEARER SKIES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY THIS EARLY AM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ONLY SOME POCKETS OF CU
STILL OBSERVED OVER EASTERN GILA COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CU AND
CIRRUS FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AM. ANY LINGERING RADAR
RETURNS ON KEMX (TUCSON WX RADAR) ARE SOUTH OF THE BORDER CLOSER TO
THE PVU AND DYNAMICS OF THE CUT-OFF LOW NOW OVER THE BAJA SPUR. EVEN
A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SONORA/CHIHUAHUA
BORDER FROM MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN
THE HEART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER JET
MAXIMA. THE CUT-OFF WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRACK EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...TRANSLATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS NM/WEST TX BY THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SETTING UP ANOTHER GORGEOUS SOUTHWEST SUNSET LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS AT LEAST IN PHOENIX TODAY.
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DAY IS 94F (2012) AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. YUMA-EL CENTRO-BLYTHE CAN LOOK FOR MID 90S
AGAIN AS WELL...WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF GLOBE AND JTNP
CAN LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...ADVERTISING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK WILL CLIP NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND MILD CAA INTO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...UL JET STREAK MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CRASHING
DEWPOINT READINGS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS (WITH
MANY OF THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS) MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AREAL CONCERNS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFPSR) AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ LATE
TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST WINDS. THROUGH 17Z
TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 17Z TUE TO 02Z
WED...INCREASING WEST WIND 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED
AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY SHOULD BE FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ


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