Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 120526 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1025 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.UPDATED DISCUSSION... OUR STRING OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUED TODAY...WITH THE HIGH OF 85F AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD BY 2 DEGREES. THIS MILD WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AT THIS HOUR...A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THESE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LESS
CLOUDINESS AND A REDUCTION OF THE DOWNSLOPE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. AS A RESULT...OUR NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL LIKELY
BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN CURRENT FORECASTS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT HOURLY FORECAST
TRENDS OR HOLDING UP WELL...NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.DISCUSSION... LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE CENTER OF THE
850-300 MB ANTICYCLONE NEAR LAKE HAVASU CITY AND IT WILL CONTINUE
SLIDING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT. MORNING RAOBS FROM BOTH
KTWC AND KFGZ WERE QUITE WARM ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH 700
MB TEMPERATURES AT RECORD VALUES FOR BOTH SITES. THIS HAS TRANSLATED
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OBSERVED ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES WAS ECLIPSED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT AND CLUSTERED.
CONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. NAEFS ENSEMBLE HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES ARE EASILY ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND IN FACT NEAR
RECORDS COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS AS HIGHS WILL AGAIN PEAK OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
IN MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS.

MODEL DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW THE STRONG
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...FIRST
FROM A PACIFIC TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND THEN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DROP A GOOD AMOUNT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES BELOW
700MB AND ONLY DROP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.
WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT THEY LIKELY WON`T BRING ANY RELIEF FROM THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AGAIN WE SHOULD SEE NEAR OR RECORD HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...LIKELY FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY COULD CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN HAS THE PHOENIX AREA HITTING 90
DEGREES WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF
THE YEAR BY AROUND A WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY SHY OF 90
WITH THE WARMEST VALUES FALLING ON WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD GET SOME
MINOR RELIEF LATER NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH IS SHOWN TO PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OR EVEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THINKING IS THIS WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES WELL OUT OF
RECORD TERRITORY...BUT THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD LIKELY STILL SEE 80
DEGREES OR JUST ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A VERY WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF
WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT MANY
LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL HOVER IN THE TEENS ACROSS
ALL DISTRICTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD /YEAR/  | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/

THU FEB 11     86 | 83 /1951/      |   87 | 86 /1971/
FRI FEB 12     88 | 84 /1988/      |   87 | 87 /1957/
SAT FEB 13     87 | 88 /1957/      |   86 | 93 /1957/
SUN FEB 14     86 | 85 /2014/      |   85 | 94 /1957/
MON FEB 15     87 | 86 /2014/      |   85 | 89 /2014/
TUE FEB 16     88 | 84 /2014/      |   86 | 88 /1981/
WED FEB 17     89 | 88 /2014/      |   86 | 88 /2014/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS


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