Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPSR 220932
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE WEAK UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS TO EXTREME EASTERN AZ
ON TUESDAY HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...INTO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS NOW
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND WARMER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS
UPWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WHILE ALSO KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. 850MB TEMPS THAT WERE IN THE 19-21C RANGE ON
TUESDAY...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AT
MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 21-24C
RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THESE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AT MOST LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO LOWER
ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR JUST ONE DEGREE BELOW THE RECORD...WHICH WAS LAST SET IN 2007.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
1ST GOOD FALL SEASON TROF MOVES INLAND INTO NORTHERN CA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...BRINGING THE 1ST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT OF THE
SEASON TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
FROM AROUND 588DM ON SATURDAY INTO THE 576-578MB RANGE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY RISING
INTO THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...AND REMAINING IN THE MID 80S ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...THE ONLY OTHER IMPACT
FROM THIS TROF PASSAGE WILL BE A INCREASE OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES...WITH ALL PRECIP...AND MOST CLOUDS REMAINING WELL
TO OUR NORTH.

SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT THEN CROPS UP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS WEAK TROFING OVER THE SW US...WHILE THE
EURO MOVES THIS TROF OFF TO THE EAST AND ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WEAK
RIDGING BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH BOTH MODELS KEEPING OUR CWA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...JUST WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FROM OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGH
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z THU...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS
GENERALLY FROM 8 TO 15 MPH...WITH 20 MPH WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.