Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 042211
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES WITH DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER IS FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS
RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES. MONSOON HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REGION WIDE. A MORE STABLE AND DRIER PATTERN WILL SHIFT
MOST OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE AND THREAT FOR SHWRS INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY STABLE
AIR ALONG WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES
PORTEND A SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY OVER TODAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER BY
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPORT
INCREASING CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN AZ BY EVENING. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AZ
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AZ. A THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. MODELS
FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL AXIS OF DILITATION...OR DEFORMATION ZONE AOA
300 MB TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST CA/SOUTHWEST AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER INCREASING MOISTURE. THE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND MTNS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A DRYING TREND IN SOUTHEAST CA AND
SOUTHWEST AZ WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND A THREAT OF AFTN/EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF AZ...GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX
EASTWARD.


SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL SPREAD
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...AND EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/ZONE 24...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE NORTH TOWARD PHOENIX MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHWR/TSTM EVENT...HOWEVER SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL TOO
FAR AWAY...THE BEST APPROACH IS TO INTRODUCE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT ANY TERMINAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP SKIES
GENLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND FAVOR NORMAL
DIURNAL TENDENCIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL BRING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WHILE ACTIVITY WILL
BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE
WEEKEND. AN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SURGE WILL THEN INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE
COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE BREEZES GUSTING AT TIMES UP TO 20 MPH.

&&

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 8 PM MST TODAY FORAZZ020>023-
     025>028.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 8 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ031>033.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN


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