Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 231019
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY MARKS THE LATEST 100 DEGREE READING ON RECORD IN
PHOENIX...WHICH OCCURRED IN 2003. REACHING 100 DEGREES AGAIN THIS
YEAR IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE
TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FOR TODAY...WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN
STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES. MEANWHILE...LATEST NAM SIMULATED
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD...YIELDING A PROMINENT
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM
TIME-TO-TIME AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH
HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA





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