Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 272204
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 PM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
RAPIDLY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATER PARK OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA HAS SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTED LOW. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (MIXING RATIOS 4-6 G/KG) FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS AIDING TO DEVELOP THE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY STEADILY TODAY, BECOMING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, AND INCHING TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMAL. WINDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN MUCH MORE CALM ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND HAVE
STILL HELD ON TO A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

BY TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST AND
EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, APPROACHING THE 582DM HEIGHT. WITH A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS AND A
NEARLY CALM WIND PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK APPROACHING 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
(PHOENIX AVERAGE HIGH IS 89/90 DEGREES AND YUMA IS 90 DEGREES). AS
IT STANDS NOW, THE WARMEST FORECAST DAYS ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND 100
DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
DESERTS OF ARIZONA.

FOR THE EXTENDED, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO
FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF
NOW, MODELS TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD, BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT
MONDAY, SO WE MAY AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND HOLD ON TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE AS FAR AS TIMING BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01Z TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...AND WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CDEWEY
AVIATION....CDEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY



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