Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 241003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS PLACES THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR
PHOENIX WITH HIGH CLOUDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EASTWARD. PHOENIX RECORD
HIGH OF 96 DEGREES IS IN JEOPARDY TODAY...THOUGH THE DAILY RECORD OF
105 DEGREES IN YUMA IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.

DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA





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