Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 010955
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
255 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
CONTINUES TO BE PROJECTED AS A BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE STRAFES THE REGION. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR SPECIFICS ABOUT WIND SPEEDS AND ANTICIPATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, LAKE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSAFE
FOR WATERCRAFT AS GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
CONCERN RELATED TO THESE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING DUST MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
EAST OF THE VIRGINIA RANGE; INCLUDING THE DAYTON VALLEY. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE ON THE PLAYA IN BLACK ROCK CITY.
EXPECT SOME CARRY OVER INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE AND THERMAL
GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT. INCREASED WINDS EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND
MAY HAVE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN THE SIERRA.
LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDEST SIERRA
VALLEYS LIKELY AROUND 30 DEGREES. THESE COOL CONDITIONS MAY SHOCK
LESS THERMALLY TOLERANT PLANTS WHICH MAY NEED TO BE COVERED. ALSO,
OUTDOOR PETS MAY NEED EXTRA CARE TO ENSURE THAT THEY STAY WARM.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND EXTREME
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY; PERCENTAGES WILL BE MEAGER AROUND 15% FOR
A LIGHT SHOWER. BOYD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN TIMING DIFFERENCES, MODELS TRENDED A BIT
TIGHTER EARLY IN PERIOD, BUT REMAIN AT ODDS BEYOND SATURDAY WITH
REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AND WEAKEN. THERE SEEMS
TO BE A CONSENSUS FOR AN EARLY SEASON COOL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS IDEA BY COOLING
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN ZONES FOR FRI-SAT. IF THE ECMWF IS REALIZED, SATURDAY COULD
BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST, POSSIBLY ANOTHER 5 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 50 SATURDAY.
ANOTHER IMPACT FOR LATE WEEK WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL
FREEZE OR FROST FOR MANY SIERRA VALLEYS AND THE TYPICALLY COLDER
VALLEYS IN WESTERN NV.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST
AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND
FORCING LOOK TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH INTO
LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE
5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER
KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PLUME GETS DIRECTED
MORE TO THE EAST OF THE FIRE. MJD/WH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA.

TYPICAL ZEPHYR TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OREGON AND IDAHO. THIS WILL
INTENSIFY THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR THE WESTERN BASIN, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH, HUMIDITIES
ARE AN ISSUE FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITH
TEMPERATURES EASING DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-80 AND NO LARGE-
SCALE DRY SLOT IN MODELS, HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT 15-
22% NORTH OF A RAVENDALE TO FOX MOUNTAIN LINE. SOUTH OF THERE TO
AROUND HIGHWAY 50 IN THE BASIN, HUMIDITY LOOKS SUFFICIENTLY LOW (IN
THE LOW TEENS ON AVERAGE) TO BRING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND DOWN INTO MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES, HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
30 MPH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA SO NO WATCH/WARNING IS EXPECTED THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASED WINDS ALOFT MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING
FOR MID SLOPES BUT HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGH
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

ON THURSDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS AS SOME
MODELS BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA FRONT AND BASIN AND RANGE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMIDITY MAY RISE ABOVE 15%
FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ANOTHER WATCH COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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