Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 282131
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
231 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016
After a dry and milder Friday, a cold front is becoming more
likely Friday night and Saturday with increasing shower chances
and gusty winds. A slight chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two will stick around Sunday and Monday. More
unsettled weather is possible later next week.
Extensive clouds and a few showers will linger this evening south
of Hwy 50 as upper low over the southern/eastern Great Basin is
very slow to move out of the area. In fact, clouds may remain
banked up against the eastern Sierra into Friday morning. So
tonights temperatures should remain fairly mild except in northern
areas where cloud cover will be more scattered.
Models are in really good agreement with dropping an insider
slider system down through western NV Friday night. So confidence
is high that we will see another round of showers and gusty winds
from late Friday afternoon into Saturday. Showers should reach
far northern areas by 00z Saturday and then quickly spread
southward into the I-80/Hwy 50 corridors Friday night.
Forcing and instability are strong enough to warrant a slight
chance of thunderstorms and local bands of heavier precipitation.
However, confidence in the details remains low and given the fast
moving nature of this front, QPF amounts should remain generally
below a quarter inch. Snow levels are expected to remain above
lower valley floors although a mix or brief changeover to snow
could occur immediately behind the cold front. Some light
accumulations are possible in the foothills around Reno-Carson
City, Tahoe Basin and along Hwy 395 through Mono County overnight
into Saturday morning.
West winds will increase ahead of this system Friday afternoon and
become quite gusty Friday night/Saturday as the front sweeps
through the area. Headlines may be needed for Lake Tahoe/Pyramid
Lakes although roughest lake waters will likely be across Mono-
Mineral Counties Saturday as a brisk north gradient develops
behind the front. Anyone with interests on area lakes late Friday
into Saturday should monitor the forecast closely.
The upper low is going to hang over the Great Basin Sunday which
will keep at least a slight chance of showers and maybe a
thunderstorm in the forecast. However, winds and shower coverage
will be much more limited. Mild temperatures Friday will cool
Saturday only to rise again Sunday in this spring pattern. Hohmann
.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Chances for showers will stick around through Monday as an area of
low pressure slowly exits the Sierra and western Nevada. Weak
ridging builds across the region later Monday and into Tuesday in
advance of a stronger low pressure system forming off the West
coast. With increased south/southwesterly flow across the area,
temperatures should warm into the mid/upper 70s for western NV.
It still appears that low pressure will move into California
starting Wednesday and impact much of the West coast through the end
of the week. Main concerns will be for increased chances for showers
again, as well as cooler temperatures. The low appears to elongate
and may cut off as it approaches California, which will increase the
forecast difficulty. Forecaster confidence is medium at this time
for at least increased chances for showers south of Highway 50 as
well as cooler temperatures. Otherwise, finer details will have to
be hammered out over the weekend into early next week. Weishahn
Periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBY are possible for KTVL and KMMH. Generally
north winds expected for through this evening, with gusts only
topping out around 15-20kts.
Quiet weather expected for Friday, with another low pressure system
dropping into the area Friday night into Saturday with increasing
winds as well as potential for rain/snow showers.
The next system`s cold front appears to drop through the region
early Saturday morning which will bring a quick wind burst as well
as brief rain/snow showers. Snow showers will be possible at all
terminals, but it will be difficult to accumulate at KCXP and KRNO.
Light accumulations may be possible in the Sierra terminals for
early Saturday morning. Weishahn
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