Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 260852
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
152 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...

Dry air will remain across the region with seasonable and stable
conditions this afternoon with only a low chance for thunderstorms
this afternoon across the Sierra in Alpine and Mono counties. Breezy
conditions return to the northern Sierra and northwestern Nevada by
Sunday afternoon as the next weather system over the Pacific
approaches the West Coast.

.SHORT TERM...

Northwest flow aloft will provide mostly dry conditions with
temperatures near season averages this weekend. Only chances for
precipitation will occur this afternoon over the Sierra across
Alpine and Mono counties and extending east into western Mineral
County. The latest GFS run has come around to the NAM solution
with developing convection this afternoon along a convergence/thermal
boundary with the addition of a modest increase in moisture.
Instability is still marginal but still can`t totally rule out
isolated shower and storm development today and have also extended
chances a bit farther north into Alpine County.

Dry air then returns across Mono and Mineral counties for the
remainder of the weekend as high pressure builds. This will result
in mostly clear conditions with high temperatures a few degrees
above season averages. Winds will shift back out of the west by
Saturday with afternoon zephyr winds strengthening Saturday and more
so on Sunday. Gusts on Sunday could reach into the 20-30 mph range
across northeast California and out into far western Nevada. Fuentes


.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

Minimal changes were made to the extended forecast this cycle...but
there could be significant changes coming at the end of the forecast
period if current trends hold.

Southwest flow aloft early in the forecast should keep the
atmosphere dry with near normal temperatures. The GFS is trying to
show a short wave lifting through the southwest flow late Tuesday
and developing showers over the far northern CWA. The ECMWF also
shows a short wave but is not as aggressive and the timing is later
with its arrival Tuesday night. The GEFS ensemble members are not as
aggressive with this feature either.

Southwest flow aloft and dry again Wednesday with near normal
temperatures. Thursday...the model agreement starts to break down.
The GFS is showing the first signs of a deep trough digging into the
region. While not completely on shore during the day...this trough
does deepen and swing into the region by late Thursday night. The
ECMWF is not quite as fast or deep with this trough...but does
indicate some cooling for Thursday. The GEFS ensemble members are
well spread with both the timing and strength of this trough by
Friday morning.

Given there is little consensus late in the forecast period...we
have opted not add weather yet and will keep pops below 15% through
the extended period. Winds could become quite gusty ahead of the
trough Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions today with weak flow over most of the area. There
remains a small chance of thunderstorms over parts of Mono County
and Alpine County...especially near the Sierra Crest late this
afternoon and early this evening.

VFR conditions continue through the weekend and into early next week.
Typical westerly afternoon winds with gusts 20-25 kts return by late
Sunday and continue into early next week.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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