Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 250922
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
222 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS,
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY START TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE BASIN AND RANGE
NORTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS NORTHWEST NV WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
LATE THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND 80S SIERRA VALLEYS. MOISTURE
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD SATURDAY WITH SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA OF MONO COUNTY. THIS MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SAT NIGHT-SUN AND RESULT
IN PERIODS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS. SO BUMPED UP THE
SKY COVER FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
BREAKS SO THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE AND CAPE IS MARGINAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
EASTERN SIERRA INTO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV FOR NOW AS
MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AND PUSH WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND 80S
IN THE SIERRA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH, COMBINING WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

DIDN`T MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST, AS DETAILS OF TIMING
AND LOCATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. THERE ARE
SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT ARE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA. ALSO, IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH THAT THE AFTERNOON WEST WINDS START TO KICK IN BY WED/THU,
HELPING TO KICK CONVECTION OFF THE SIERRA LATE IN THE DAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH, BETWEEN 0.75" TO
OVER 1.0", MEANING THAT STORMS SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTIONS. AS WITH ANY LIGHTNING, THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF NEW
FIRE STARTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM AREA THUNDERSTORMS. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY SW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY 8 KTS OR LESS) THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNYDER/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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