Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 091017
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
217 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP POLLUTANTS AND MAY CREATE
HAZY CONDITIONS AS WELL. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES POSSIBLE BY WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER
VALLEYS IN THE SIERRA AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR
LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS,
WITH MANY LOCATIONS FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE. INVERSIONS WILL LIMIT WARMING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
INITIALLY, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A QUICKER WARM UP.

AIR QUALITY MAY BE A CONCERN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS POLLUTANTS AND
HAZE BUILD UP AND BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSIONS. ALTHOUGH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR IMPROVED MIXING AND VISIBILITY. GO TO AIRNOW.GOV FOR AIR
QUALITY INFORMATION. ELW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY, BUT
RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND PARTIALLY SPLITS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG
RIDGE. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ALREADY MEAGER MOISTURE NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE WESTERN RIDGE. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BUT TOTALS WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WITH THE
SYSTEM RIDING NORTH OVER THE RIDGE, THERE WON`T BE AS MUCH COLD AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, SO TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MILD AND
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEAK RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS
MAY BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT
THE MOISTURE AND FORCING IS TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MOIST TROUGH TO REACH THE WEST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS HAS BEEN SHOWING UP IN THE PAST COUPLE OF FORECAST MODEL
RUNS, BUT THE EVOLUTION HAS DIFFERED GREATLY. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER
RETURNING. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST RIDGE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS. THIS MAY
CREATE LIGHT TURBULENCE NEAR AND ACROSS THE SIERRA.

PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE MARTIS AND SIERRA
VALLEYS, INCLUDING KTRK THIS MORNING. IN FACT, OBSERVATIONS AT KTRK
ARE SHOWING 1/4SM IN FZFG AS OF 1 AM, BUT BASED ON THE RUNWAY
WEBCAM, IT APPEARS THIS IS SHALLOW AND VERY LOCALIZED. FREEZING
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KLOL EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14-16Z. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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