Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 180902
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
202 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IS BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A SPLIT
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHIFTING A COOL FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN CA/NV EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS DECENT FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT HELPING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, THIS MORNING. STILL QUESTIONABLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING, BUT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO WARRANT KEEPING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. A DECENT DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO
NORTHERN CA/NV BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL END SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD GENERATE THE DEEPER CONVECTION
NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ONE DRAWBACK COULD BE CLOUD COVER STIFLING
DAYTIME HEATING AND LIMITING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, BUT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME THIS.

TROUGH EXITS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN WARMING AFTER THE SLIGHT COOL DOWN TODAY. DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION, BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN
MONO COUNTY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY GENERATED BY DAYTIME
HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. WEAK RIDGING RETURNS
SUNDAY AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THROUGH
MONO COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH WARMING ALOFT, IT`S
LIKELY THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER
THAN SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. DJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MAIN STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
AS A COUPLE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE WEST COAST.  THE FIRST ARRIVES
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SECOND SYSTEM POSSIBLE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

FOR MONDAY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE INITIAL IMPACT AS A COLD TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.  GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE LIKELY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 60 MPH.  AS
THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REACH THE SIERRA TUESDAY MORNING, SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 5000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA PASSES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO
WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY, BUT THINK THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT AT THIS TIME. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, AFTERNOON HIGHS
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR THE SIERRA WITH 50S FOR WESTERN
NEVADA.

FOR MID WEEK, A ZONAL FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW A COUPLE
SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH OREGON WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS WELL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

NEXT SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE MAY ARRIVE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND
AS A RATHER COLD LOW SETS UP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS
WOULD DIRECT THE JET STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH A DAY OR
TWO OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.  SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE AT
5500-7000 FEET WITH A SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF KTRK-KLOL THROUGH 18Z. THE LOW TO THE SOUTH
WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KTRK-KLOL AFTER 18Z.
KMMH HAS A 25% CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY A THUNDERSTORM, WHILE
THE CHANCE AT THE TAHOE AND WESTERN NEVADA TERMINALS IS 10-15%.
BRONG


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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