Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 020932
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
232 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER
COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM
THIS MORNING FOR AGRICULTURAL AREAS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT WHICH ALERTS USERS OF
FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN
AUTUMN.

LOOKING AT CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS, FEEL THAT THE FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE LOWS MAY
STAY IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO PLEASE TAKE CARE TO COVER YOUR PLANTS. FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER, BUT THIS STILL TRANSLATES TO LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY STILL NEED TO BE
COVERED.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 80 DEGREES
FOR THE WEEKEND IN WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
IN THE SIERRA. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEEK BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CA/NV AND THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE CA COAST SUNDAY. EARLY IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, REPLACED
BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE SIERRA
INTO WESTERN NV, POSSIBLY WITH WESTERLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BREEZES. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LACKS A MOISTURE SOURCE AND AT
THIS TIME NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURE CHANGES, A FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS IS IF AN INCREASE IN WIND OFFSETS A COOLER
AIR MASS BY REMOVING OR WEAKENING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. HOWEVER,
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WEST LEAVING THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA IN AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW. AS SUCH, A
COOLING TREND FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. JCM


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10
KTS FOR THE SIERRA FRONT RANGE INCLUDING KRNO AND KCXP. FOR MOST
OTHER TERMINALS CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
INCLUDING AT KTRK AND KTVL. A VERY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A 15 % CHANCE OF
FOG OVERNIGHT AT KTRK. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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