Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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360
FXUS65 KREV 020420 AAA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
920 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Main thunderstorm complex developed over the higher terrain of
central NV and propagated southward into southern NV this evening.
Storms across western NV were weaker due to lack of shear and
larger scale forcing. Still, surface heating and outflow from
cells that developed this afternoon and evening were sufficient to
produce a few stronger storms with wind gusts around 40-45 mph,
locally heavy rain and blowing dust in the Basin and Range around
KNFL-KLOL. Visibility dropped as low as 3/4 mile at KLOL. Activity
was decreasing with a few storms expected to hold together mainly
in the Basin and Range through the evening. A quick look at the
00Z model data shows little change in forecast thinking for
Saturday. Weakness will be moving slowly eastward across the
region with another round of isold-sct showers and thunderstorms,
again most south of Hwy 50 and east of Reno. Hohmann

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will continue to bring the threat for thunderstorms
Saturday before drier conditions return for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Temperatures will slowly cool down to near
average by early next week, with increasing winds around the
middle of next week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 225 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
An upper low approaching the Sierra will bring thunderstorms this
evening main to areas southeast of I-80. Storms will linger into
Saturday before drier conditions return for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Temperatures will slowly cool down to near
average by early next week, with increasing winds around the
middle of next week.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are firing south of Yerington and east of Highway
395 early this afternoon. This is in line with convection allowing
models. For this evening, expect more storms to fire, and those
same models keep the storms there and also along and east of
Highway 95 further north towards Lovelock. This idea looks good as
the zephyr has kicked in at the crest and will kill any threat for
storms there.

The one adjustment is to keep the scattered mention in for the
Sierra Front. Outflows from the storms to the southeast may
interact with the zephyr over the front and trigger storms early
this evening. Not a high confidence situation, but I have seen
this enough times to keep the forecast going as is there for now.
The biggest threats from the storms will be gusty winds and brief
heavy rainfall.

The low only slowly pulls east Saturday with more storms possible.
If anything, it looks less, and more confined to the southeast as
warmer air aloft moves in over the Sierra Front. Temperatures will
remain warm, but continue the slow cooling trend.

For the rest of the holiday weekend, a more west flow will develop
and push any moisture east. In addition, temps aloft also fall at
all levels which will keep the slow cooling trend going. A typical
zephyr is expected Sunday before a little strong wind is possible
Monday as the flow aloft increases slightly.

The rest of next week looks breezy as a couple short waves pass by
to the north and into Oregon. There is little moisture this far
south so do not expect much except some high clouds. However, they
will act to increase the winds aloft with breezy days Tuesday and
Wednesday. With continued low humidity, fire weather concerns are
there despite temps cooling back to near average for early July.
Thursday and Friday, the winds aloft relax as the upper trough
over the Pacific Northwest weakens. Temperatures will remain near
average as temps aloft only very slowly begin to warm. Wallmann

Aviation...

Latest convective-resolving models have trended lower for
thunderstorm threats this afternoon and evening. They still show a
threat for outflow winds across Mineral and Churchill Counties this
afternoon possibly spreading north into Pershing County after 00z.
However, they show peak outflow gusts up to 35 kts, weaker than
earlier simulations. This also lowers the threat for blowing dust
but there is still a 20% chance for lowered visibility due to dust
across western NV, including at LOL, NFL, and HTH.

Thunderstorm chances at terminals have become much lower as well
this afternoon and evening with only a 10% chance at TVL and TRK
and 10-30% chance for western NV terminals.

Isolated storms remain possible Saturday, mainly south of I-80, with
much less risk Sunday and Monday as a drier and more stable airmass
overspreads the region. Continued typical afternoon/evening westerly
breezes through the weekend. JCM

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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