Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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510
FXUS64 KSHV 171208
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
608 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.AVIATION...
All kinds of flying conditions early this morning in the wake of a
large precipitation shield which has moved east of our terminal
airspace this morning. Dealing with LIFR ceilings and VSBY
restrictions across some of our NE TX terminals with prevailing
ceilings at all terminals near LIFR conditions. Through the day,
looking like fog should lift near the I-20 terminal locations and
point south by mid to late morning with LIFR and VLIFR ceilings
improving and or scattering out to VFR conditions by late morning
into the afternoon hours. Ceilings may be a little slower to lift
at the TXK/ELD terminals if they lift at all but cross sectional
analysis showing that all terminals will tank at least ceiling
wise overnight tonight with the possibility of patchy dense fog
developing overnight from the I-20 corridor and points south. Have
tried to trend the later half of the TAF periods in this
direction.

Winds will be mostly light and variable today through tonight.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 452 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
One to two inches of needed rainfall occurred across the area last
night, with rainfall quickly exiting the area to the east by mid
morning. A very wet ground and easterly winds underneath a stg low
lvl inversion may result in a rather foggy morning for the Monday
am commute, with cloud cover being a possible limiting factor.
Another strong and fast movg upper low will pull the frontal
boundary responsible for this rain, back out of the gulf as a warm
front on Monday. Pcpn water values this time around will greatly
exceed that with the system last night and very heavy rainfall
possible where this front will stall out on Tuesday, most likely
near or just north of the I-20 corridor. Expect some embedded
thunder as well with this widespread rainfall near and south of
this front. After a break in rainfall Wednesday into Thursday, a
strong upper low with plenty of cold air in its wake will come
barreling towards the area. Instability will become unseasonally
high with LI values in the negative across southern portions of
area and deep convection possible Thu night into Friday. Models
seem a little more progressive and thus tapering off pops into the
early weekend from the nw, which will ease concerns about
possible winter wx for any of the cwa prior to Christmas Holiday.
Although a trailing short wave with mid lvl moisture could produce
very lgt amounts of winter pcpn, mainly north of I-30, feel that
chances and possible impacts not significant to place mention that
far out in extended period attm.

/07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  50  66  56 /  10  10  30  60
MLU  66  50  65  55 /  30  10  30  60
DEQ  59  44  64  49 /  10  10  10  40
TXK  58  47  64  53 /  10  10  20  50
ELD  61  47  65  53 /  10  10  20  60
TYR  62  49  65  56 /  10  10  30  50
GGG  62  48  65  55 /  10  10  30  60
LFK  67  52  67  60 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

07/13



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