Area Forecast Discussion
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473
FXUS62 KTAE 262315
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
715 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...

Scattered showers and storms will continue to drop southwest into
the region this evening. These storms would primarily impact VLD
and ECP, but possibly TLH as well. Overnight, expect LIFR
restrictions at TLH, ABY, and VLD, with less confidence at ECP and
DHN. Expect storms to be concentrated in the late afternoon once
again tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [301 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level shortwave near the Georgia coast will persist through
the near term. An MCV rotating over southeast Georgia this afternoon
will help to generate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms particularly in a stretch from TLH to VLD (higher
chances near VLD). Convection will be on a diminishing trend after
00z with the better chances (30-40%) remaining across the eastern
portion of the CWA. For the second half of tonight, PoPs will
decrease to about 20 percent with the focus still across the eastern
portion of the CWA, but with the addition of the coastal areas. Lows
overnight will only drop into the mid 70s inland to upper 70s along
the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The weak upper low over the southeast will continue to influence
rain chances for Thursday. PoPs will be in the 30-50% range with
the highest in south Georgia and the Big Bend. By Friday upper
level flow becomes more zonal ahead of the approaching trough.
Friday PoPs will be slightly lower 20-40%. Highs will be in the
lower 90s with warmer temps to the west where rain chances are
lower.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The trough over the eastern US will shift east through the period.
It will bring a weak front that will increase shower and
thunderstorm chances for the weekend. Drier air will arrive by late
Sunday before rain chances increase again mid week. PoPs will
generally be 30-60% with the highest chances in the Big Bend. Highs
will be in the upper 80s with lows in the low 70s.


.MARINE...

Winds will be westerly 5 to 10 knots through Thursday then will
increase to 15 knots through the weekend. Seas will be 3 feet or
less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the
next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

All area rivers are below flood stage. A few heavy showers and
thunderstorms could lead to brief localized flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  91  75  93  76 /  30  40  20  40  10
Panama City   77  90  78  90  80 /  20  30  20  20  10
Dothan        74  93  74  94  75 /  20  30  10  20  20
Albany        74  90  74  94  76 /  20  30  10  20  20
Valdosta      73  89  74  92  74 /  40  50  30  30  10
Cross City    74  90  74  90  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
Apalachicola  76  89  77  90  79 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston



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