Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 260742
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
342 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging will prevail this afternoon, with highs climbing
into the middle 80s and no rain.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

An upper level shortwave trough in the southern Plains will swing
into the Ohio valley Thursday, pushing a cold front into the
southeast. A linear MCS ahead of the front will be moving northeast
as it approaches the area, and most of the convection is expected to
be north of us. Still, our northern tier of counties will probably
see some thunderstorms from this system. Any storms that do manage
to make it into the forecast area will have the potential to be
severe since they will be in a favorable environment. Model MLCAPE
is around 2000-2500 J/kg Thursday afternoon with 0-6 km shear of 30-
40 kts and 0-1 km shear of 15 kts.

The front itself won`t make it this far south. Winds will remain
from the south through Friday and maximum temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 80s. Morning lows will be in the 60s, low 70s along
the immediate coastline.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Low level ridging will persist to our east through the weekend,
keeping low level winds southerly. With afternoon highs inland in
the upper 80s and low 90s, there will be a large enough temperature
gradient between the land and water to develop a sea-breeze frontal
boundary both Saturday and Sunday. Isolated sea-breeze thunderstorms
will drive up PoPs to around 20%. Early next week, an upper level
+PV anomaly will lift from the mid-Mississippi valley into the Great
Lakes, pushing a cold front across the eastern CONUS. Timing remains
uncertain with this next system, but at the moment it appears the
area will most likely see thunderstorms on Monday. Behind the front,
temperatures will drop- highs will return to the low 80s and lows
will fall to the mid 50s.


&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]...

DHN, TLH, and VLD all have the potential for a couple hours of MVFR
visibilities near dawn. Otherwise, VFR should prevail through the
TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

A frontal system approaching the area will drive southerly winds
to increase through the day, up to around 20 knots over our
western waters tonight. Wave heights will build to 4 to 6 feet
overnight as well. Winds speeds and seas will gradually lower
through Thursday night as the front pulls northeast. The front
will not cross the coastal waters, so winds will remain southerly
through the weekend. Advisory conditions appear likely Saturday
night and Sunday as another front approaches the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
though dispersion indices will gradually increase beginning tomorrow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Showers and thunderstorms Thursday are expected to produce less than
a half inch of precipitation. Timing remains uncertain for our next
cold front early next week, which makes it difficult to estimate
rainfall amounts at this time. No flooding is forecast for the next
several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   83  62  85  67  88 /   0  10  10  10  10
Panama City   77  70  80  73  81 /   0  20  20  10  10
Dothan        84  66  83  69  88 /   0  20  40  10  10
Albany        85  64  85  68  90 /   0  10  40  10  10
Valdosta      84  60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10   0  10
Cross City    82  61  86  65  89 /   0   0  10   0  10
Apalachicola  77  70  81  69  82 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning
     through late tonight for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Moore


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