Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 160809
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
309 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today-Wednesday)...
High amplitude pattern persists over the CONUS with a deep
L/W trough over the eastern half of North America...and a
sharp U/L ridge over the U.S. and Canadian Rockies. A strong
U/L disturbance will dig down the backside of the U/L
trough today through Wednesday tracking from the mid

Missouri valley to the mid Atlantic coast.
Surface high pressure will hold over west central and
southwest Florida today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and moderating temperatures. Highs will run from the
mid 60s north to the mid 70s south.

A cold front, associated with the U/L disturbance
approaching the mid Atlantic coast, will push across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida on Wednesday with much
colder drier air advecting across the region on gusty north
to northwest winds. Deep layer dry air over the region
combined with weak low level convergence will lead to a dry
frontal passage with only a slight increase in cloudiness as
the front pushes across west central and southwest Florida.
However, passage of the front will be very noticeable as
winds increase from the northwest in the wake of the front
with strong cold air advection through the afternoon across
the forecast area...with temperatures holding steady or
falling during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through the Weekend)...
A significant cool down is expected at the start of the
long range period. This will occur as a powerful cold front
surges across the region as a deep trough moves off the
Carolinas coast. The front will usher in an Arctic airmass
with much colder and drier conditions expected. This will be
the main feature of note heading into the long range
period.

The cold front will be on its way south across the Florida
peninsula Wednesday Night with sharply colder air moving in
by early Thursday. Guidance has recently come in a shade
colder than the last couple of days, with lows ranging from
around 20 degrees along the Nature Coast and adjacent inland
areas, to the upper 20s to low 30s along and just south of
the I-4 corridor, and middle/upper 30s southward. Despite
the long duration cold snap we had at the start of the
month, this would actually be the coldest night we have seen
thus far this winter season. Freeze warnings of the normal
and hard variety will likely be needed in future forecasts.
Wind chill advisories may also be required as a large area
of wind chills in the teens appears probable.

As cold advection persists during the day on Thursday,
highs will creep into the 40s and low to mid 50s most areas.
The good news is, while this airmass will be very cold,
most models suggest we will modify fairly quickly. One more
night of near freezing temperatures will unfold Thursday
night into Friday, but by the weekend, we will see rising
heights and rising temperatures with highs back to the 70s.
In fact, some areas may reach the lower 80s Sunday and
Monday.

A generally dry forecast is expected throughout the long
term period, but models do suggest a cold front may impact
the region early next week. For now, will introduce low
chances for rain as confidence in timing and location
remains very low.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours under
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

&&

MARINE...
Benign conditions are expected on the waters today. A cold
front will move across the waters on Wednesday with small
craft advisory conditions possible in the wake of the
front...spreading across the waters from north to south
through the day. Seas will also build and will likely become
hazardous to small craft late Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Winds will begin to weaken on Thursday and veer to
the northeast which will allow seas to gradually subside,
with no hazards expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards are expected today or Wednesday as
the relative humidity is expected to remain above critical
levels each day.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  69  50  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  52  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  70  47  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  69  51  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  69  42  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  52  62  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin



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