265
FXUS62 KTBW 031341
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
941 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A saturated atmosphere across the area this morning with a PW
values of 2.24 inches from this morning 12z TBW sounding. This
value is around the 95th percentile for early July. Radar imagery
indicates scattered showers/storms but so far, the precipitation
has not been as widespread as anticipated. Due this, dropped PoPs
a little for the remainder of the morning and into the early
afternoon. There was a shower/storm earlier this morning that did
realize this heavy rainfall potential and produced a quick 2 to 3
inches of rain near Largo, and a flood advisory was issued.

Widespread cloud cover is moving in from the west as
showers/storms move onshore. Showers/storms should become more
numerous inland later this afternoon with southwesterly flow. Once
again, any storms that develop will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall rates. A slight risk of excessive rainfall extends across
much of the forecast area with the low/medium chance for
localized flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Showers and storms over the Gulf waters have started to move
inland across the CWA. Meanwhile, an upper level trough and
surface low pressure remain over the peninsula. This is keeping
southwesterly winds over the state and pulling ample moisture,
which is supporting the current activity. Given the multiple days
of rainfall and the training of storms today could bring the
potential for isolated minor flooding. Additionally, the
widespread cloud coverage will keep afternoon highs from getting
above the upper 80s today and on Friday.

The aforementioned U/L trough should begin to move north to
northeast but PWs over 2 inches remain in place, which will
continue to support period of showers.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

During the weekend, moisture remains fairly high with guidance
keeping POPs high. Later into next week, drier air gradually
starts to wrap into the area as the low lifts out, allowing
coverage of rain to regulate. However, southwesterly winds will
keep scattered to numerous showers and storms shifting onshore in
the late morning and early afternoon, building into the interior
through early evening. Temperatures will also increase gradually
getting back into the 90s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions currently across the terminals this morning. There
are numerous showers/storms that are moving onshore in the Tampa
area. Therefore, have included VCTS in the TAFs for TPA/PIE/SRQ
from the beginning of the period. This activity will continue to
move onshore with VCTS later in the day at the remainder of the
TAF sites. For now, have continued with VFR conditions throughout
the TAF cycle but any storm will produce temporary periods of MVFR
to IFR conditions. Will monitor TAFs throughout the day and make
any necessary amendments.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Southwesterly winds between 10 to 15 knots remain in place for
the remainder of the week before calming down to 5 to 10 knots
over the weekend. A stalled out front over the area will help to
enhance shower and thunderstorm development for the period. Higher
waves and winds are possible near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Ample moisture remains over fire districts as area of low pressure
moves over the state supporting periods of showers and storms through
the period. Therefore, no fire weather concerns are anticipated
during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  78  89  77 /  80  60  90  60
FMY  86  76  89  76 /  80  70  80  50
GIF  87  75  88  75 /  80  60  90  30
SRQ  87  77  89  76 /  80  70  90  60
BKV  88  73  90  72 /  80  60  90  40
SPG  85  78  87  77 /  80  70  90  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley