Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 242031
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE WERE
RESULTING IN HIGH BASED VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY/WINDY
AND DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL OFF BY LATE EVENING. THE RH AND
WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH A WEAK/DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRIDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH NOT MUCH FOR WINDS ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
CWA WILL START TO RECEIVE THE INFLUENCES OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL US
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKING OFF
OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH WAA IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL PICK UP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA STRENGTHENS
IN EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER LIFT INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH
HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CLOSED
LOW INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING THE
MAIN SURGE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE DRY SLOT ON MONDAY...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO
REMAIN IN THE REGION ALL THE WAY INTO TUESDAY.

WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH GENERALLY 50S OR
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AN INTERESTING PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
SOMEWHAT ON THE COOL SIDE...NOT NOTHING TOO EXTREME.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA OR
-TSRA NEAR THE KABR TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS VERY LOW...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
OF TAF AT THIS TIME AND AMEND AS NEEDED. CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN
VFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES
     RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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