Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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857
FXUS63 KABR 061731 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WILL BE WATCHING PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. IT HAS ALREADY MADE IT INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND WILL BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STILL EXPECTING VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

NEAR RECORD TEMPS AGAIN TODAY. THE ABR RECORD IS 91 WHICH OCCURRED
IN 1918. THE HOLD UP ON REACHING THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THE COLD
FRONT JUST TO OUR NW AT 12Z THIS MORNING...STRETCHING FROM THE MAIN
LOW OVER SW ONTARIO. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO SINK S AND STRETCH
BASICALLY FROM THE SW CORNER OF SD TO THE NE CORNER BY 18Z. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SINK SE OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...N-
NNE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 17 TO NEAR 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NAMDNG IS THE ONE OF MOST ROBUST WITH TSRA DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 00Z.
SHEAR IS MARGINAL...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME KEPT SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE S HALF OF THE CWA FROM 21Z ON.

THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY SNEAK BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TOO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL...AS A COUPLE OF
OBS WELL UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN IMPACTED WITH VIS.

DRY AIR SINKING IN ON THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
20 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER NE SD AND W
CENTRAL MN. SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
SW CORNER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER SW NE AND W KS AND THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD MOVES TO THE
SE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE MODEL OUTPUT SINCE THE LAST EXTENDED
FORECAST PACKAGE WAS RELEASED.

THERE IS STILL THE UVM/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATION ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THAT COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.
THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION IN QUESTION STILL LOOKS SET TO
WORK IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH
IT...TOO. THE AGREEMENT IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
IN THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF WAS NOTEWORTHY. THE MID
WEEK UPPER SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME WINDY NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH IT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOWCASE 925HPA
TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE +7C TO +13C RANGE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF  THE EXTENDED FORECAST...GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO. THE
COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE WEDNESDAY...WHEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S IN SOME
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH BRIEF GUSTS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY NEAR KATY
OR KPIR BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO MAKE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE



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