Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 291127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THANKS TO A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ARE IN THE TEENS BELOW...TO NEARLY 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW...TO
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THERE IS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AS WELL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25
BELOW TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THUS LIKE SURROUNDING WFOS...WILL
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 3Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BECOME STEADY...OR SLOWLY
RISE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A
DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LEE SIDE OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU AS MODELS ARE SHOULD 30 KNOTS AT 925 MB.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD WITH EITHER BE NORMAL...AS THE ECMWF/GEM
SUGGESTS...OR COOLER...AS THE GFS/NAM INDICATES. SINCE THE GFS
TENDS TO RUN COLD...WILL BLEND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH TO THE
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FOR THE MOST PART...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION AND WAA DEVELOPS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S. WILL
THEN SEE A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC
AIR DROPS BACK OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ON SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF THE
REGION...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
     NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-
     HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-
     POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
     FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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