Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 141127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
RECORD SETTING COLD IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD WILL BRING ABNORMALLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RECORD SETTING COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS LOCATION ARE SHOWING HIGHS EXCEEDING THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMP...WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR JULY...AROUND 100 J/KG...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATE SHOULD PRODUCE CU AND PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER. THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S. THAT SAID...THE 6Z NAM IS A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC AND KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING
TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN
NEW RECORD LOWS WILL BE SET IN KPIR/KMBG. SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE MID 70S. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING IN THE UPPER 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S. WHILE RECORD LOWS ARE
NOT IN THE FORECAST...SOME LOCATION ARE WITHIN 5 DEGREES FOR THEIR
RECORD LOW.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHED OUT ON
FRIDAY AS A LOW MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE ROCKIES. THIS MEANS
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE SUMMER LIKE NUMBERS. AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE GFS
TO BRING IN THE RIDGE WHICH RESULTS IN THE ECMWF OFFERING A DRIER
AND VERY WARM SOLUTION. KEPT IN POPS AT THE LAST PART OF THE
PERIOD...BUT LOWERED TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN ORDER TO NUDGE TO
THE ECMWF.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
SCT/OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ROTATING DOWN WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF ND THIS MORNING. KEPT ONLY A VFR MENTION
AT KABR/KATY SINCE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLOUDS TRYING TO SCATTER
OUT. BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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