Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 050619 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
119 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY MAJOR UPDATES THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A
LLJ IN THE EAST AND THIS MAY SUPPORT VERY LATE CONVECTION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE FOR NOW. UPDATES ISSUED
EARLIER TO DEAL WITH LACK OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CWA THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST. LEFT SMALL CHANCES IN FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT MAINLY FAR EAST IN THE CWA WITH SOME LLJ
FORCING UNTIL IT DIVERTS MORE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE MODELS
SHOW A FEW MORE WEAK WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE LARGE WESTERN US TROUGH KICKS NORTHEAST AND
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH BETTER
CHANCES OF STORMS TO THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BRING IN THE BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS. WITH GOOD MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SURFACE HEATING AND BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THERE COULD BE
SOME SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE UPPER TROUGH IN CANADA SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY/WINDY. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
IN MUCH DRIER AIR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FAR
NORTHWEST IN THE CWA. SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE DRY AS THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COOL WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT TRANSITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THREE SHORTWAVES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
PERIOD. THE FIRST FEATURE PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE ELEVATED THANKS TO A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WE WILL SEE A MILD/DRY AIRMASS SURGING UP FROM NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM WITH A MORE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...DISLODGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FROM
MONTANA/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING IT INTO THE EAST. A MORE DYNAMIC
SYSTEM IS IN THE WORKS WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRAW A CANADIAN
AIRMASS INTO THE DAKOTAS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FIRST AT KPIR/KMBG SATURDAY MORNING...MOVING TO
KABR/KATY IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN



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