Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 261039
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
239 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Run to run has been very good for the short term and the
models continue to be in excellent agreement out to around 96
hours before we start seeing diverging solutions over the arctic.
The guidance has been a little overdone with the precipitation
so will make some adjustments down this forecast cycle by leaning
even more to the NAM solution. We are moving into a much warmer
and drier regime and the models are picking it up quite well.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...As advertised the 575 dam high is over
Bristol Bay this morning and will continue north to Norton Sound
by Friday morning, then over the Seward Peninsula by Saturday
morning, and over Kotzebue Sound by Sunday morning. At 850
HPA...Zero isotherm lies from Dawson Yukon to Delta Junction to
Nikolai to Point Hope then west. It will continue to push north
through Friday as the ridge builds and will lie From Dawson Yukon
to Wainwright and northwest by Saturday morning with temperatures
over the west coast rising to around 10 celsius above and eastern
interior temperatures rising to around 5 celsius above.
Temperatures will continue to warm through the middle of next
week.

SURFACE...Stationary front lies from Dawson Yukon to Anaktuvuk
Pass to Wrangel Island this morning and will be squeezed out
Friday as the ridging with a 1027 mb center builds over the west
coast and eventually merges with the ridging with a 1030 mb
center over the arctic. A Thermal low and trough will develop
over the upper Tanana valley Friday and strengthen slowly through
the weekend.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...A lot of stratus east of
Wainwright, and expect it will not be moving too much with the
surface and low level flow remaining out of the northeast to east
as the high builds north of Barrow. From Wainwright west winds
will be out of the east today and turn from the south tonight.
Some light precipitation expected to the west of Nuiqsut, but
mainly light amounts. Temperatures start a warming trend today
that will continue into the middle of next week.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Surface high is moving north and
with that precipitation is starting to shut off and skies are
starting to clear over the lower Yukon delta and that will
continue through the day as the high moves north to Norton Sound.
Winds will become light as the high moves over the area today.
Temperatures on the rise today and that trend will continue
through at least the middle of next week.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Some showers today across much of
the area with taper off to lingering Sprinkles or isolated
showers over the White mountains and Fortymile country by this
evening with the remnants of the front laying across the area,
but not expecting much accumulation. Winds generally light and
variable. Temperatures will be on the rise and that will continue
into at least the middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Not as much precipitation as expected, but only a
few strikes as expected in the Fortymile country and upper Yukon
flats yesterday. Ridge building over the west coast with surface
high moving over the Seward Peninsula by Friday morning and some
form of ridging continuing over the area through the weekend. Not
expecting any thunderstorm activity today. Warming and drying
trend will continue into at least the middle of next weak, but not
expecting much thunderstorm activity at this time. Thermal trough
will develop over the upper Tanana valley Friday and persist
through next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flood Watch for the Colville continues. With the
warming trend expected over the Brooks range runoff is expected
to increase this weekend. Ice jams have formed and continue to be
of concern as breakup continues on the north slope. Look for
updates to the Flood Watch later this morning.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch for AKZ203.

Smal Craft Advisory for PKZ220.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 16


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