Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 201952 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1152 AM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN REMAINS PARKED OVER CENTRAL ALASKA AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THIS FEATURE
WILL HOLD FAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH AND POSITION AND WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ALASKA INTERIOR. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA IS ALSO PROGGED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE FORMING REX BLOCK OVER THE STATE. A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PROVIDING FOR PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT OR CAP SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FORM
SIBERIA TO WRANGEL ISLAND TO BANKS ISLAND AND IS FORECASTED TO
REMAINING IN PLACE WHILE STRENGTHENING SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH BUILDS NORTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WEDNESDAY.

WEST COAST...EXPECT ISOLATED AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
BEING ENHANCED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OVER THE
BERING STRAIT. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

NORTH SLOPE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDE NORTH OF THE COAST WILL KEEP
THE NORTH SLOPE DRAPED IN LOW STRATUS...FOG AND FLURRIES THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY LIMITED BREAKS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST.

INTERIOR...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CAP MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WIDE SCALE SNOW PACK MELT.
SNOW PACK AT PAFA DOWN TO 7 INCHES WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW PACK
REMAINING THROUGH THE CHINOOK ZONES ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTH
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE. CONTINUED DRYING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...HOWEVER THE GFS WAS WETTER IN THE MID LEVELS AND WOULD
SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW. GIVEN LACK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND BUILDING
RIDGE AND BETTER CONTINUITY OF LATE...PREFERRED THE DRIER ECMWF
AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS. ECMWF HAS ALSO DISPLAYED BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY IN THE MID TERM PARTICULARLY IN MAINTAINING THE RIDGE
OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND THE YUKON LONGER THAN THE GFS AND IS
BETTER SUPPORTED FROM A CLIMATE STANDPOINT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...CONTINUED
DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RH VALUES DROPPED INTO THE 20S
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE CHINOOK ZONES ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE
ALASKA RANGE HOWEVER WINDS REMAINED BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
EXPECT MIN RH VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 20S TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA
ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC APR 14



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