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000
FXAK69 PAFG 181933
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1133 AM AKDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST ALASKA
INTERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MORPH INTO TO A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALOFT OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
THIS WILL END THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BRING IN SOME LITTLE
MOISTURE...CREATING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND BROOKS
RANGE THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN
COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A WEEK TO 10 DAYS.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR AT SOME LOCATIONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST INLAND AREAS CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216 AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS IS CONNECTED
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTER GRADUALLY MOVING AROUND THE PERIMETER OF
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH. THIS MORNING THE LOW CENTER IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE...BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED
TO BE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD. DEVELOPING THERMAL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL CAUSE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
`RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226-AKZ227.

&&

$$

RF JUN 13