Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 291400
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
SEA STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FROM THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE LOW SEA STRATUS CLOUD LAYER HAS MOVED
INTO THE YAKUTAT, CROSS SOUND AND SITKA AREAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ROTATING
AROUND THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MISTY FJORDS AREA.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SUNNY DAY
AND CLEAR NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND MAY GET A BIT FURTHER INTO
THE INNER CHANNELS. THE SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH VERY WARM 850MB
TEMPS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S OVER
INLAND AREAS. PLACES ALONG THE COAST THAT AREA SEEING THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT GET AS WARM AND MAY SEE HIGHS BARLEY GET TO THE
LOWER 60S. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH SOME AREAS
CLOSER TO THE WATER WILL BE CLOSER TO 50.

WIND WISE...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SO MOST OF THE WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO 15 MPH. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL ALSO LIMIT HOW WARM CERTAIN PLACES GET TODAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS WILL BE NEAR CROSS SOUNDS WITH NW
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL AREA TO MUCH WARMER PLACES OVER
THE SUNNY INNER CHANNELS. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE WINDS
TO 15 KT OR LESS.

OVERALL THERE IS GOOD FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT / MOST OF THE EFFORT THIS
MORNING WAS LIMITED TO ADJUSTMENTS TO TIME PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE TREND FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE FORECAST OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT VARYING MUCH BETWEEN THEMSELVES. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS
PERSISTING. THE THERMAL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST
WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WEST...SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TOWARDS
THE YUKON KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC
SLOPE WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORT CATCHING THE SOUTHERN
YUKON AND DOWN TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE THAT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
SATURDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THERE SEEMS TO BE A SECOND TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARINE STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

HEADED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE TROUGH OUT
OF NORTHWEST CANADA IS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST... AND ENERGY FROM THE
WEST IS EXTENDING UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS
IS START OF THE PATTERN SHIFT BY THURSDAY THAT IS MOVING A FAIRLY
LARGE SCALE LOW THAT LOOKS BE VERTICALLY STACKED BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. IT LOOKS AS IF THE RAINS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST EAST ALASKA
IN EARLY JUNE.

LEFT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE THAT
WAS ALREADY IN THERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AWAY FROM THE WATER. MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE WATER WILL GET VERY WARM AND DRY WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER
20S AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH WIND SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OF
WARNING. PLACES NEAR THE WATER WILL GET WARM BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SEA BREEZE. ALSO RH VALUES
WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE DRY OFFSHORE TO A MOIST
ONSHORE WIND AND BE IN THE MID 30% TO 40%.



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.

&&

$$

ABJ/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








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