Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 160851
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BENNINGTON/WINDHAM
COS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ONLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS
FALLEN THIS FAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...NORTH INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS.

THROUGH SUNRISE...WE EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO PERSIST
ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER S AND E INTO MUCH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL BERKSHIRES BY
SUNRISE. FURTHER S AND E...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA SLIDE E.

AFTER SUNRISE...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS SE AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHER N AND W...THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH...BUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...OR EVEN EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...INTO SOUTHERN VT AND
WESTERN MA. ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AFTER THE BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND 10 AM...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH NOONTIME AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES E.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY.
CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN OCNL MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. KALB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS BUT MAINTAIN VFR
CONDS WHILE KPOU WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL AFT 05Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS
AND VSBYS TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.