Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 242039
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG. LOTS OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. BY SATURDAY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. A
STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. THEN...OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A BIG DIFFERENCE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN WE
HAD UNCOMFORTABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMING AROUND. TODAY...NAY A SHOWER ON THE RADAR
LET ALONE THUNDERSTORMS. WE STILL DO HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT THEY ARE SLOWLY FADING. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS
THAT TEMPERATURES WERE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES COOLER AND THE DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...LOOKS FOR A DECREASE IN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 75 AND 80 VALLEY AREAS...70 TO 75
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT COOLING NICELY BY SUNSET. A NORTH WIND WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY DRY.

AFTER SUNDOWN...ANY LEFT OVER CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE...LEAVING ONLY
A FEW WISPY CIRRUS AROUND (AND PERHAPS SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM A
FOREST FIRE UP IN CENTRAL CANADA). THE NORTH WIND WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE
60S THROUGH MIDNIGHT...50S AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS 50 TO 55 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH OF ALBANY BY DAWN. WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND OVERNIGHT...PATCHES
OF FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE PLACES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS
PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS REALIZED.
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
WEST.

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CEILING AROUND 3500 FEET WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPSF AND KPOU AND BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT 08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE 6 KT FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU AND SOUTH AT KGFL AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...CHC TSRA.
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT
SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM








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