Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 300530
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly fair and seasonable weather is forecast for Saturday
before a storm system approaching from the Ohio valley brings a
threat of widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1220 AM EDT...Mostly clear skies along with some patchy fog
are expected during the remainder of tonight. The dewpoints will
continue to fall overnight now that the dewpoint boundary has
moved south of the region. This will allow lows to be in the 50s
to lower 60s with a few mid 60s across southern areas along with
light and variable to calm wind conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Partly to mostly sunny Saturday morning until convective
temperatures are reached. Lingering boundary layer moisture and
the beginning advance of upper energy approaching from the west
could support an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm,
especially in the Schoharie Valley through the eastern Catskills.
Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s, some 70s southern
Adirondacks.

Saturday night through Monday, upper energy and a developing
southern to southeasterly low level jet segment along with a
surface low developing along the old frontal boundary to our
south will support rain and scattered thunderstorms over our
region. Quite a bit of uncertainty as to how far north the heavier
and steadier rain gets but most areas should see enough rain to
help water everything that has been suffering during the dry
summer.

One area of enhanced rainfall is timed for late Saturday night and
Sunday. Then there may be a break and another area of enhanced
rainfall Sunday night into early Monday but again quite a bit of
uncertainty with regard to the specifics of track and timing of
features supporting enhanced rainfall. There are some hints that
some of the rain Sunday could induce some diabatic cooling to the
north of the old frontal boundary and high temperatures with the
cloud cover and rain should be in the 70s. Monday, with the
prospect of rain exiting late, looks like highs a few degrees
warmer than Sunday.

If the rain tracks further south, then cooler and rainier to the
south and warmer with some possible breaks of sun in the north.
Still time to watch how everything evolves.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday begins with a positively tilted upper level trough and
cyclonic flow at 850mb. Skies will likely be partly cloudy as models
show high Res. Cold pool aloft and convergence near the surface
should lead to some shower or thunderstorm development later in the
day. Showers should be isolated as rising heights aloft should
gradually reduce instability. Lows in the 50s and 60s and highs in
the 70s to around 80.

Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be fair and warm as high
pressure drifts across the forecast area. Lows in the 50s and 60s
with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s.

Friday looks mainly fair and hot as strong warm air advection on the
back side of surface high pressure takes hold. An approaching cold
front may trigger some afternoon or evening showers or thunderstorms
depending on timing/speed of front. Lows mainly in the 60s with
highs mainly in the 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some drier air has drifted southward down the upper Hudson Valley
from around the KGFL to KALB corridor, but its southward progress
seems to have stopped. High pressure will briefly build in for
early today, before a frontal boundary approaches from the
southwest late today into this evening.

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours
ending 06Z Sunday. The only exception will be at KPSF, where
occasional fog with IFR/MVFR conditions are expected from around
07Z-11Z this morning. Dewpoint still in the lower 60s at KPSF,
with temperatures cooling. Drier air will likely preclude any
radiation fog formation at KGFL/KALB.

High and mid level clouds will increase and thicken today ahead of
the frontal boundary. Some showers may approach KPOU/KPSF/KALB late
this afternoon or early evening from the south and west. Some
steadier showers may develop either later this evening or
overnight, so will monitor trends for the next TAF issuance.

Wind will initially be light and variable this morning, becoming
mainly northeast around 5 kt later this morning into the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. No SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly fair and seasonable weather is forecast for Saturday
before a storm system approaching from the Ohio valley brings a
threat of widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and
Monday.

Relative humidity values will recover to 85 to 100 percent
tonight, and drop to 40 to 60 percent on Saturday. RH values
increase again to 80 to 100 percent Saturday night and with rain
expected Sunday, afternoon RH values drop to 70 to 80 percent.

Winds will be north to northeast at less than 15 mph today
through Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the region is currently running 3 to 8 inches below normal
on annual rainfall. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of
the area is considered abnormally dry (category D0), and parts of
the Catskills and western New England are within a moderate drought
(category D1).

Rain fell across the southeast part of the forecast area last
night and early this morning. based on reports, most locations
received a quarter inch or less with some isolated reports around
three quarters of an inch. There were some scattered thunderstorms
over the southern adirondacks yesterday afternoon which produced
some local amounts around three quarters of an inch.

Dry weather returns through Saturday, with the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms arriving late Saturday night into Sunday
with the chances for showers and thunderstorms lingering into
early next week. Rainfall amounts in many areas could range
between a quarter inch and an inch through Monday with local
amounts possibly up to 2 inches. This long duration rainfall would
only produce minor rises in area rivers if this much rain does
occur.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


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