123
FXUS61 KALY 172323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
723 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With an upper level disturbance close to the region, it
will be partly to mostly cloudy for tonight into Saturday, with a
few spotty showers around.  Clearing skies and warmer temperatures
are expected on Sunday.  Above normal warmth is expected for much of
next week, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms returning by
the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Clouds have spread across the region with light onshore flow.
There may be a few breaks in the clouds from time to time but
mostly cloudy to cloudy most areas through the night. A few
showers could affect the western Mohawk Valley and southern
Adirondacks as rain in western NY drifts east and tends to
weaken and dry up as it pushes east. A few minor adjustments to
temperatures and sky cover through the night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A coastal low continues to slowly spin offshore the mid Atlantic
States for today. Meanwhile, another upper level disturbance is
starting to approach from the west. Enough upper level ridging
and a weak high pressure area northeast of the area continues to
keep dry and quiet weather in place. Skies will generally trend
towards mostly cloudy for late in the day into this evening. A
few brief sprinkles are possible across the Adirondacks (perhaps
parts of the Mohawk Valley, Sacandaga Region, and the Saratoga
Springs and Glens Falls areas too), but any precip looks very
light and brief.

Radar imagery shows a large batch of showers over western New
York associated with the approaching upper level disturbance.
However, this feature will be moving fairly slowly and weakening
as it heads eastward. Based on CAMs and radar trends, most of
this precip will be diminishing as it heads eastward. Western
and southern areas could see a few showers by late in the
overnight, but most areas will be staying dry for tonight.
Overall, skies will be trending towards mostly cloudy to
overcast with the increasing mid and high level clouds from the
west.

Temps overnight will mainly be in the 50s, with some upper 40s
possible across the high terrain of western New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, the weak upper level disturbance to the west will
be passing across the region. Moisture with this feature looks
fairly limited and the best coverage of showers will mainly be
to the west and southwest. In addition, the slow moving coastal
low wobbling offshore may spread some moisture towards eastern
New England, although this activity looks to generally stay to
our east. Overall, while it looks fairly cloudy on Saturday,
precip looks spotty for our area, with just slight to low
chances across western, northern and far northeastern parts of
the area. Any showers look brief and light, and most spots
should be staying dry through the day. The clouds may hold temps
down a tad, but it will still be comfortable and seasonable,
with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.  Some clearing will
finally occur by Saturday night as both disturbances finally
starting moving away, with lows falling into the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

Upper level ridging will be nosing into the area from the
southwest for Sunday into Sunday night. This will allow for a
partly to mostly clear sky. With warm temps aloft, it will be
milder on Sunday, with highs well into the 70s in most spots.
Dewpoints will remain comfortable in the 50s. It will continue
to stay dry and quiet into Sunday night with a mostly clear sky
and temps in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much warmer temperatures are expected through the long term
period.

A sharp upper level ridge will be in place over the area for
the start of the week. Strong southwest flow aloft will
allowing for warming temps, with 850 hpa temps going from +13 C
on Monday towards +16 C by the middle of the week. Valley highs
to look reach into the 80s, especially by Tues/Wed when highs
may reach the middle 80s across the area.

It should be rain-free for both Monday and Tuesday, although
dewpoints will be rising towards 60 by the middle of the week.
Skies look fairly sunny on Monday and Tuesday with the ridging
in place and no precip is expected.

By Wednesday into Thursday, the upper level ridge will be
starting to shift eastward as an upper level disturbance and
frontal boundary approaches from the west. This will allow for a
threat for showers and thunderstorms both days, especially in
the afternoon and evening hours. It`s too early to say how
strong storms will be, as it will depend on the front`s timing
and available instability, but we will continue to monitor.
Temps will continue to be warm in the 80s each day and it will
be a little of muggy side as well.

Behind the departing front, somewhat cooler and drier air will
move back into the region for Friday. Still, it looks warm with
temps well into the 70s. With an upper level trough overhead,
there will still be some clouds and perhaps a brief shower for
northern areas, but most areas should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR ceilings will prevail tonight through Saturday afternoon
with a weak upper disturbance tracking north of our region.
Clouds should prevent fog from forming tonight and into early
Saturday morning, so visibilities are expected to be VFR as
well. There could be some isolated showers in the KPOU area
during the day Saturday but too isolated to mention in the TAF.

Light northeast to southeast winds at 6 Kt or less tonight,
continuing through Saturday morning and afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...NAS