Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 010820
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
420 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level storm will allow for plenty of
clouds this weekend with on and off rain showers.  Temperatures will
be on the cool side today, but will moderate slightly for tomorrow.
The chance for rain showers will decrease early next week as the
storm system starts to move away from the area, with dry and
comfortable weather expected by the middle of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 420 AM EDT...A cut off and closed off upper level low
continues to be situated over the Midwest, with an upper level
ridge axis continuing to extend from the western Atlantic and into
the Northeastern US. This has basically been the same pattern for
the last few days. The flow around these two features has been
bringing plenty of mid and high level moisture into the region
off the western Atlantic Ocean. Initially, our area was only
seeing some clouds, but the column has finally moistened up enough
on Friday to allow for rain showers. PWAT values have risen to
1.62 inches based off the 00z KALY sounding, which is around 2 STD
above normal for early October.

Rain showers have generally been light in intensity and fairly
scattered in nature overnight, as the best forcing remains well
off to the west. During the day today, cyclonic flow will continue
to keep the threat for rain showers in the forecast, but actual
rainfall will be rather brief, light and scattered in coverage.
While it should remain fairly cloudy, cool and damp, it probably
won`t be raining for much of the time. Still, there could be some
areas of drizzle and mist at times, mainly for the higher
elevations, as the moist flow off the Atlantic upslopes the
terrain.

With the clouds and rain showers around today, temps will be held
down. Most areas won`t get out of the upper 50s today for high
temps. As a result, today will be the coolest day since mid-May.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will continue to slowly track towards lower
Michigan tonight and eventually towards western New York on
Sunday. The continued moist cyclonic flow will keep some showers
around for tonight into tomorrow, although they will continue to
be scattered in coverage and fairly light in intensity. It will
continue to be fairly cloudy, and there could be some patches of
fog tonight as well. Low temps tonight will be in the upper 40s to
low 50s. Highs on Sunday may be slightly milder than Saturday,
with temps reaching into the 60s for valley areas.

Best chance for showers may wind up being Sunday night as the
upper level starts to make its approach from the west. Have
continued with high chc pops and cloudy conditions across the
entire region with temps falling back into the low 50s.

On Monday, the upper level low will basically be situated right
over the area. With the lower heights/cool temps aloft, there
could be some additional rain showers, especially during diurnal
heating. Will continue with chc pops for the entire area. Temps
should be seasonable in the mid 60s for valley areas.

The upper level low will finally be shifting eastward by Monday
night. Will lower pops for Monday night, with the best chance for
a lingering rain shower across eastern areas. Cloud cover should
finally be starting to decrease across the area by Monday night
with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Hurricane Matthew is forecast to be about 300 miles south of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Friday...

Model guidance is a little faster now with the big cutoff low
exiting the region. 00Z guidance shows the trough axis southeast of
the area about over Long Island with upper level ridging building in
by 12Z Tuesday. RH fields indicate there may be some residual
cloudiness in the morning, and with the trough just south of the
area, a slight chance of showers is warranted over the far southern
part of the forecast area with fair weather all locations by
afternoon. Lows Tuesday in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 50s and
60s.

Dry weather is then expected Tuesday night through Thursday as a
large ridge of high pressure ridges down the East Coast from Maine.
Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 40s with highs on
Wednesday in the 60s. Lows Wednesday night are expected to be in the
40s to around 50 with highs on Thursday generally in the 60s to
lower 70s. Lows on Thursday night will be in the mid 40s to lower
50s.

By Friday, a cold front crossing the area from west to east will
bring a threat of showers to the area. The southeastern part of the
Albany Forecast Area may also see some clouds and light rain or
drizzle move in from the Atlantic Ocean ahead of the cold front.
Highs on Friday expected to be in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cloudy conditions expected for the next 24 hours as large low
pressure system over Kentucky gradually inches closer to NY.
Ceilings will generally be MVFR with some IFR possible around
sunrise Saturday. Periods of light rain and/or drizzle and fog
will reduce visibility at times to 2-4 miles.

Northeast winds will diminish to less than 10 Kt later tonight.
And Continue through Saturday.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday: Chance of SHRA. Moderate Operational
Impact.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
SHRA.
Tuesday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly cloudy and damp weather is expected this weekend with RH
values generally remaining above 70 percent. There will be a
chance for rain showers each day. East to Northeast winds will be
under 10 mph through the entire weekend. Drier weather will return
by the early to middle part of the upcoming week as the storm
system finally moves away from the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The latest US Drought Monitor continues to show drought conditions
across much of the region. Precipitation departures this year have
been 3 to 12 inches below normal, with the greatest departures
across southeastern parts of the area. As a result, streamflow and
ground water levels have been running below normal.

Some additional rainfall is expected this weekend into the early
part of the upcoming week as a slow moving upper level low moves
across the area. Most locations will see an additional quarter to
half inch of rainfall through Monday. Dry weather will return for
Tuesday into Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis



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