Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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683
FXUS61 KALY 221727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER. IN ITS WAKE...A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL RETURNING BY MEMORIAL
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION
AND HEAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WAS A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH IT...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH SO LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCES IN. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED
SO WE ADJUSTED THEM UPWARD SLIGHTLY THEREFORE RAISING HIGH TEMPERATURES
UP TO A CATEGORY HIGHER. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE DACKS...AROUND 60 REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...MID TO UPPER 60S
MOST VALLEY AREAS INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER 70S MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...AVERAGING
10-15 MPH BUT GUSTING 25-30 MPH...EXCEPT 30-35 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH /CENTRAL PA/ FOR WINDS TO EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT LOOK TO HAVE FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH EVEN A FEW MID 20S POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT...FROST IS
STILL LIKELY WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO THE 33-36 DEGREE RANGE.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED...BUT WITH PLEASANT 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO MORE OF
A PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD
AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S
IN MOST AREAS DUE TO A MODERATING AIR MASS IN WELL MIXED
ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL START AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY
OVER WESTERN AREAS... WITH SHOWERS SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THE ONLY MODEL THAT STILL SHOWS THE
RAINFALL HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT IS THE CANADIAN. SO AS NOT
TO FLIP THE FORECAST TOO MUCH...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY TO BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH
THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THE WARM YET TO MOVE THROUGH...TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY SUMMER LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY NIGHT... RANGING FROM AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...TO JUST UNDER 55 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WELL INTO THE 50S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MOIST
FLOW OF AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS THE
PERFECT SETUP FOR SUMMERLIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ALONG WITH A
NEARLY CONTINUOUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE
HUMID...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE
LOW OR MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z/SAT.

BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THERE WILL BE SCT CLOUDS AROUND 6-8 KFT THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING...AND LOOK TO BECOME ABOUT 5 KTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR BY LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEARLY
CLEAR DUE TO VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW
WEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS...WITH A FEW MORE HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH DRY AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
MPH. SO THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...BUT
WITH TREES BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN-UP PHASE...THE KEETCH-BYRAM
DROUGHT INDEX MUST BE CONSIDERED TO ASCERTAIN THE NEED FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. A THRESHOLD OF GREATER THAN 300 IS NEEDED...AND
CURRENTLY VALUES ARE IN THE 200-250 RANGE SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 65 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10
TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. WETTING
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL SOME TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
MA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV



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