Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 281415

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1015 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Issued at 1001 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Lowered chances for seeing rain today in most locales. Latest
satellite and hi red data analysis suggesting one shortwave
wrapping SW of MBL attm, while another is working into the St.
Mary`s river system. This in decent agreement with latest radar
imagery showing echoes departing SW of MBL but a few showers
rolling into the St. Mary`s. Otherwise, the trend for the day will
be what others are seeing, a fairly quick stripping of the deeper
moisture with just some scattered cumulus and higher level cloud.
Into the afternoon, we ought to be seeing increasing sunshine, or
at least filtered sunshine. The only area that may continue to see
clouds, and possible showers, will be the SE CWA near Saginaw Bay.
Stronger shortwave energy will be wrapping northward around the
east side of the upper low which will continue to drop south
toward the Ohio River valley. Thicker high level clouds were
already racing toward the Bay. Not so cool out there today with
highs working into the middle 60s most areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Deep vertically-stacked low centered over the Western Great Lakes
region continues to slowly drop south early this morning. Deep
cyclonic flow and plenty of moisture wrapping around this low
continue to produce lake-enhanced rain showers. While delta T`s in
the mid teens remain more than favorable for lake contribution to
ongoing precip production...low level winds are in the process of
shifting from the persistent W/SW flow over the past couple of days
to a more easterly component as the low center drops southward thru
the length of Lake Michigan. In response...W/SW orientation of lake-
enhanced rain bands has fallen apart...and much of the precip has
pushed offshore into Northern Lake Michigan.

Vertically-stacked low center will progress southward along Lake
Michigan and into the Ohio Valley today...generally holding over the
Ohio Vally thru tonight. Persistent deep cyclonic flow will maintain
strong convergence over our area. A small amount of
warming/moderating will occur aloft as the shift to low level
easterly flow ushers in slightly warmer temps aloft. But delta T`s
will remain sufficient (in the lower teens) for some continued lake
contribution to ongoing precip. Shifting low level winds will settle
into an E/NE trajectory today and will persist into tonight as the
low continue to slide south of Michigan. This will reorient focus of
lake-enhanced rain showers eastward into NE Lower Michigan where
highest POPs can be expected. Pool of slightly colder air aloft (500
mb temps of around -20 C) will slide into our SE CWA this
afternoon...which may kick off an embedded thunderstorm or two.
MUCAPES increasing to 500-750 J/kg in this area suggests this does SPC`s Day 1 outlook of general thunder for
this area. Will add a slight chance of thunder for the SE half of
our CWA. No severe storms are expected.

Expect temps today will be not quite as cool as yesterday...with
afternoon highs warming into the mid 60s and overnight lows cooling
back into the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper low that has brought the showery weather over the last
couple of days will continue to sink southward then stall out across
the northern Ohio Valley Thursday. This system is then expected to
head back to the north Friday into this weekend as the ECMWF has
shown over the last few days. So after a break in the dismal weather
Thursday for much of northern lower (except for perhaps a few
leftover showers across southeast zones), wet weather will return
from south to north during the day Friday into the weekend. One
thing of note is that the ECMWF timing is faster which could lead to
a quicker return of the showers (Thursday night). It will likely
become breezy for Thursday and Friday as well due to a decent
surface pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north
and weak low pressure associated with the upper low to the south.
The persistent upper low should finally push off to our east Monday
taking the showers with it (though the ECMWF is slower which may
linger showers longer). A narrow ridge of high pressure then follows
for Monday night into Tuesday night yielding precipitation free and
mild conditions. An approaching cold front will bring more shower
chances Wednesday. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal
for Thursday (middle 60s to lower 70s) then settle back toward
normal for Friday through Sunday (lower to middle 60s) before
increasing to above normal again for the first half of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Deep low pressure will continue to drop south away from Michigan
and into the Ohio Valley today and tonight. Scattered lake-
enhanced showers will continue to impact our TAF sites into this
afternoon...but will diminish toward late afternoon and tonight as
high pressure and drier air begin to build southward into Northern
Michigan. Mainly VFR conditions are expected despite the showers
this morning...with diminishing clouds later today and tonight.
East winds will increase to 10 to 20 kts this afternoon.


Issued at 1010 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Low pressure will continue to sink south into the Ohio river
valley today while the pressure gradient tightens up over Lakes
Michigan and Huron. Another long period of advisory level winds
will impact most nearshores of nrn lower Michigan, with new
advisories issued through Friday. Additional headlines may
eventually be needed. The low pressure is still expected to return
over the weekend, which will weaken the gradient and bring back
better chances for showers.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Friday for LHZ348-349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Friday
     for LMZ323-342-344>346.



LONG TERM...Sullivan
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