Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 060055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
755 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

A weak high pressure system, will briefly build across the area
through early Wednesday, to bring generally dry and seasonable
weather. The next disturbance will cross the region Tuesday
night, with a mixture of rain and wet snow. Wednesday should end
up mostly dry and seasonable once again, as a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the west.


730 pm update...
Just minor changes to match what is currently happening. Weak lake
effect showers across the far north will end around midnight.
Clouds will be slow to clear. Clouds with the next system will
stay mostly in srn and wrn pa tonight before pushing ne Tuesday.
Temperatures will fall little tonight with dewpoints remaining in
the upper 20s and lower 30s.

3 PM Update...
The combined effects of a WNW flow and weak low-level cold
advection will continue to elicit a weak lake response through
most of tonight. This will manifest itself in the form of lots of
clouds for our northern zones, along with a few
sprinkles/flurries. Meanwhile, down across the twin tiers, skies
will be variably cloudy, with the Wyoming/Lackawanna Valleys and
the southern Poconos becoming clear- partly cloudy.

Tuesday morning, any residual lake-effect clouds should diminish,
as the low-level flow turns into the southeast. Meanwhile, though,
mid to high-level cloudiness will be increasing with time, well
ahead of the next incoming system.

Highs by early Tuesday afternoon should range from the mid 30s-
lower 40s.


330 PM Update...

I was hoping for some clarity as we drew closer to our next system
then the 12Z EURO came in warmer and the GFS still has the 850 MB
0C line up through a good part of our area. At the other end of
the extreme the NAM is cold enough for all snow for our next
event. The other trend with the guidance was to slow down the
arrival of the precipitation by a few more hours, with the
majority of the area remaining dry through the daylight hours

With surface temps likely to play a huge role along with
elevation, I continued to mention a rain/snow mix over most of the
area. The exceptions would be in immediate metro Syracuse,
Elmira, and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton where a rain/snow mix to mostly
rain is expected. Here hourly temps may never fall to freezing
with any snow accumulations limited to a coating and mainly on the
grassy surfaces. Increasing in terrain will increase the duration
of snow, with snow accumulations ranging from 1 to 3 inches.
Again still uncertainty with ptype but we may see a wide
variation across the area especially based on terrain. Overnight
mins Tuesday are likely to occur early in the evening due to
evaporational cooling, then hold steady where the precip is
falling heavily but they may raise slightly especially in the
lower elevations.

Any precipitation that lingers into Wednesday will quickly end
from west to east and with rising temps, it may end as some light
rain. Very similar to today afternoon highs well into the 30s to
near 40 will melt most if not all of the snow by afternoon in many


345 PM Update...

As the overnight shift pointed out, any snow for Thursday looks to
be much less widespread than earlier runs of the EURO and GFS
indicated. More likely will be scattered snow showers, becoming
more numerous with time especially over Central NY at first.
Thursday night through Friday looks to be quite snowy over a large
portion of our area with a deep moist, northwest cold flow of air.
Snow amounts could be significant downwind of the lakes with such
deep moisture profiles conceding with extreme instability over the
lakes. Lake snow diminish in intensity Saturday but the northwest
flow will be enough to keep at least the threat for snow showers
around. A true break in the snow may not come until Sunday later
in the day as an H5 ridge tries to build into our area.


Stratocumulus clouds will linger overnight across our NY
terminals, with MVFR restrictions most persistent at KRME. Some
brief restrictions could also impact KSYR, KITH, and KBGM.

For most of Tuesday, VFR/unrestricted conditions are anticipated.
Steady rain/snow will develop over the region by early evening
(generally after 22-23z), with associated restrictions likely to
impact KAVP, KELM, and KBGM first, perhaps before 00z Wednesday.

W-NW winds 5-10 kt this evening, will become light overnight.
Winds will pick up out of the SE Tuesday, increasing to around 10
kt by afternoon.


Tuesday night...Restrictions expected in rain/wet snow.

Wednesday-Thursday...Possible restrictions in lower ceilings and
scattered rain/snow showers.

Friday-Saturday...Occasional lake-effect snow showers, with
associated restrictions, mainly KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM.




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