Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211136
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
636 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A foggy morning will give way to a mild but overcast Saturday. A
storm system moving out of the Central U.S. will spread rain, or
perhaps a wintry mix, across NY and PA late Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 AM update...
Plenty of clouds, drizzle, and patchy fog will be around through
Sunday. Low inversion heights combined with high near-surface
humidity levels and light winds point toward a persistent light
fog and low stratus deck remaining over our forecast area.

A weak wave spinning off the larger cyclone complex over the
southeastern U.S. may bring a few showers to NY and PA Sunday
afternoon before the warm front advances northward with steadier
rains.

Anomalous warmth, depicted by +6C to +8C 925mb temperatures
hovering over NY state, will keep our temperatures much above
normal Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
are forecast both days.


740 PM EST Update...
Forecast is in great shape. Lowered pops from the previous
forecast to match current observations on the radar. Showers from
this afternoon have diminished across the region and copious
amounts of low-lvl moisture linger in its wake. Overcast skies
with patchy drizzle and locally dense fog are still expected to
prevail through the reminder of the night. Temps are currently in
the mid to uppr 30s with dew points ranging in the low to mid 30s.
These temps will hold fairly steady over the next few hours, but
then start to rise after midnight as WAA continues across the
region. Overall the previous forecast is in great shape. For more
information about the previous forecast, please read the previous
forecast discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A complex coastal system will impact the region Sunday night
through Monday night. A low pressure system will move into the mid
Atlantic region Sunday night then slowly lift off the
Virgina/Delmarva coast Monday night.

The precipitation Sunday night will be in the form of just rain as
temperatures as the surface and aloft will only support rain. On
Monday, colder air in the mid levels spreads across the region
from the east/northeast. The Canadian continues to be the coldest
solution and was not followed. The GFS/ECMWF solution has been the
most consistent and used this compromise solution to determine
precipitation type. Soundings indicate as colder air comes in
around 800mb and boundary layer cools precipitation will mix with
sleet and snow. The least likely precipitation type is freezing
rain and generally not forecast. On Monday the wintry mix will
begin in the far eastern forecast area and then spread west as
cold air continues advecting across the area. By Monday night the
precipitation will gradually change to snow at most locations
but the far southeast areas. The bulk of the precipitation will
occur Monday afternoon and into the evening hours.

At this time snow accumulations across the northern half of the
forecast area could range from 2 to 4 inches will little if any
snow across northeast Pennsyvlania. Still a fair way off before
the fine details of this system are determined so a lot can
change. Hydro wise, not looking like a significant event but will
continue to monitor.

Strong easterly flow later Monday into Monday night will result
in some very gusty conditions especially in the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lingering rain/snow showers will occur on Tuesday as coastal
system lifts up through the New England coast. Wednesday into
Thursay low pressure will track from the central Great Lakes
northeast into near southern Ontario. This system will bring the
area mixed rain/snow showers Wednesday through Thursday. Colder
air behind this feature combined with an upper level trof in
eastern Canada will bring temperatures back to more seasonal
levels late next week and into the weekend along with scattered
snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moisture trapped under an inversion will keep low clouds and fog
over the terminals.

Little improvement in ceiling heights is expected today, though
visibilities should increase by mid-morning as surface
temperatures warm toward 50 degrees.

Winds will remain light through Saturday evening.


OUTLOOK...
Saturday night through early Sunday...Restrictions likely to
continue in lower ceilings and areas of fog.

Late Sunday, Monday, and into Tuesday...Restrictions likely in
rain or a wintry mix.

Wednesday...More restrictions possible in rain or snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP



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