Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 121133
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BITTER COLD
AIR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ON ITS ARRIVAL. THE
LEADING EDGE TO THIS BITTER AIR IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. SNOW SQUALLS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY. MODEL REFLECTIVITY`S AND QPF MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOW
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE HIGH SNOW RATIOS (FLUFF FACTOR). DESPITE
LITTLE QPF, CONTINUED A GENERAL COATING TO 2 INCHES, WITH AMOUNTS
MORE THAN 3 INCHES POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. WITH SNOW RATES OF 1" OR
MORE PER HOUR POSSIBLE, SNOW ACCUMS MAY COME IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR
A TIME. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO AND OUR
ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/BGM
UNDER THE WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING ICON AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

AFTER LAST WINTER, SURPRISED TO SEE A DAY RIVAL WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST YEAR SO SOON, IF EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
A WELL ADVERTISED SHOT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
TUMBLE FROM A MIDNIGHT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS, AND FALL
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MANY AREAS IN
NY STATE WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 AND
-30 DURING THE DAY. UPGRADED OUR WIND CHILL WATCH TO A WARNING
EVERYWHERE. THE TIMING WAS BUMPED UP IN NORTHERN PA TO 11Z AS WE
SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH THE LOWER END OF THE WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA (-15 TO -25) BY DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, OR
GENERALLY IN THE -20 TO -40 RANGE! SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING
-30 ACROSS NORTHERN ONEDIA COUNTY. WE CONTINUE TO STRESS THIS IS A
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND BE SURE
TO HAVE EXTRA BLANKETS, HATS, GLOVES IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF A
BREAKDOWN. IN ADDITION PREPARATIONS TO YOUR HOME TO PREVENT
FROZEN PIPES SHOULD BE MADE TODAY.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ON A 310 TO 330 FLOW. IT WILL BE MORE OF
A SPRAY OF FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE AIR BEING SO
COLD AND DRY THAT IT WON`T SUPPORT MORE THAN LIGHT COATINGS OR
DUSTING`S OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. I DID CONTINUE TO MENTION
BLOWING SNOW AS STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLUFF FACTOR TO
BLOW THE SNOW AROUND QUITE A BIT. LAKE SNOWS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
TEMPS HOLD MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TODAY AS HIPRES BLDS IN AND THE WINDS BECOME SWLY.
TNGT...A COLD FNT WILL APRCH AND TRIGGER SNOW SQUALLS...ESP AFT
O6Z. SNDG ACTUALLY QUITE UNSTABLE WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...SO
SOME INTENSE SQUALLS SEEM LIKELY WITH BRIEF VLIFR CONDS PSBL.
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LWR VSBYS WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW. THESE SQUALLY CONDS WILL CONT THRU THE END
OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM


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