Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 250546
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1246 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm southwest flow will keep temperatures well above normal
through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region
late Saturday morning through afternoon bringing showers with
heavy downpours along with scattered thunderstorms with gusty
winds. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday and Monday with
scattered snow showers and some lake effect snow east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 pm update... The going forecast is in good shape, so just some
cosmetic tweaks are required at this time.

Temperatures remain amazingly mild for a late February evening,
with readings still well into the 60s at this time. Given a
continued strong southerly flow overnight just off the surface,
readings will not fall much, only dropping into the 50s for most
locales. This is well handled with the current temperature
grids/overnight low forecast. We simply incorporated the latest
observational data early this evening.

The latest satellite imagery is showing the first signs of a
developing marine cloud layer over NJ and far eastern PA. This
yields confidence in the development of lower clouds and patchy
drizzle later tonight/towards daybreak across NEPA, the
Catskills, and portions of NY`s southern tier. Again, this
situation seems well handled with the present forecast.

Previous discussion... Another incredibly warm day across the
region both BGM and AVP have broken record highs with a new
monthly record high for February at BGM.

Tonight, surface low pressure will track from southern Michigan
to the vicinity of Georgian bay by morning keeping the local
area well within the warm sector. Overnight lows will range in
the middle to upper 50s. South/southeast flow ahead of the
system will bring low level moisture into northeast Pennsylvania
and much of the southern tier and western Catskills late tonight
into Saturday morning. Will also include areas of drizzle
primarily over northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills.

Saturday...A negatively tilted upper level trof will approach
the region late day while surface low pressure moving through
southern Ontario will drag its surface cold front through the
region from late morning through late afternoon. This boundary
is associated with deep moisture PWATs around 1 inch and strong
frontal lift. The environmental wind fields would support the
development of severe weather as both deep and low level bulk
shear values are impressive along with strong mid level wind
fields. The low level helicity values from BUFKIT are also
impressive which is generally the case with cold season
potentially convective events. The limiting factor is how
unstable the airmass will become before frontal passage. Models
show around 200-400 J/KG of CAPE with a max late day in the
Wyoming Valley around 500J/KG. This low level instability
combined with conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates could
produce a few severe thunderstorms. Strong kinematics with
limited thermodynamics but this is a strongly forced event which
could be interesting. The thunderstorms will be accompanied by
heavy downpours due to deep moisture and strong lift.

Saturday night...Cold air builds in behind this system with
scattered snow showers and flurries for much of the area. lake
effect snow looks favorable after 06Z with T85 dropping to -13C
and 280 low level flow. Will continue with likely/categorical
pops in the far north along with minor snow accumulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A respite of relatively quieter weather will be the story for this
period.

To begin the period Sunday morning, conditions will be gusty and
chilly, especially compared to recent days. A ridge of high
pressure will be situated to the west with a departing low over
Quebec so the resulting gradient will bring winds gusting 20-30
mph along with a cold advection pattern. There will some lake
effect snow showers SE of Lake Ontario affecting areas mainly
north of the thruway on a flow near 280 degrees. Slushy
accumulation of an inch or two will be possible. Otherwise, the
day will feature variable clouds with highs in the 30s


The high pressure ridge will crest over the area Sunday evening
before sliding off to the east overnight. Skies may clear for a
time in the evening before clouds increase again overnight
ahead of the next disturbance. Lows will be generally in the
20s.

For Monday, Conditions moderate once again as a SW flow takes over.
A weak disturbance may touch off a few morning flurries or
afternoon sprinkles with highs reaching the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heading into the long range, the forecast models begin to diverge
on some of the details of the day to day weather but the
overall trend will be a return to unsettled conditions for
Tuesday into Wednesday as a series of disturbances move through.
There may be some snow or mixed precipitation at the onset,
especially across the north, however the predominate
precipitation type still looks to be rain due to a dominant SW
flow. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday currently look to be in the
40s to low 50s. Beyond this time colder weather returns for late
next week with temperatures returning to near seasonal. There
will also be the chances for lake effect snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR/unrestricted conditions will continue tonight. However,
after 10Z an area of MVFR clouds will move into the region from
the southeast and impact KAVP, KBGM, KELM, and KITH.

A line of heavier showers and possible thunderstorms is expected
to cross the region from W-E in the afternoon (mostly from
17-22z). Although these restrictions should only last 1-2
hours...IFR or fuel alternate categories are possible. Will
continue to leave TS out of the terminal forecasts for now and
likely begin mention of TS for the 12Z TAF set.

Later today, behind the front, drier air will push in from the
west, with conditions likely improving to MVFR or VFR.

Winds will be a significant issue through the next 24 hours.
Strong winds just above the surface (40-45 kt at about 2000
feet above ground level) will create LLWS conditions through
12-13Z. Surface winds after 15Z will increase from the south
(gusts of 25-30 kt are likely). After the cold front passes
through, winds will shift into the west and remain gusty into
the evening.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday night-Sunday...Restrictions from lake-effect snow
showers probable at KSYR-KRME, with mainly VFR elsewhere.

Monday-Tuesday...Possible restrictions in light rain or snow
showers.

Wednesday...Possible restrictions in rain showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
200 PM FRIDAY UPDATE...

There has been very little change to the thinking regarding the
impact of melting snow and forecast rainfall on the rivers
around Central NY this coming weekend. The bulk of snow and SWE
in the Upper Susquehanna and Delaware basins has nearly fully
released into the hydrologic system at this time, and rivers
are gradually responding. There remains an abundance of snow
cover in the northern half of Oneida county, and another mild
24 hours is still expected.

We now just wait on the rain to materialize tomorrow. Models
are honing in on about 0.50-1.00 inches with the bulk of any
widespread precipitation occurring across the northern counties
with less toward the NY-PA border. A narrow frontal rain band
moving through on Saturday afternoon could contribute to
significant rain rates for an hour, or so. In addition to the
river rises, localized water problems will have to be monitored
when the front sweeps through.

The Flood Watch continues for Oneida county, and NWS Buffalo
has already issued a very long lead time Flood Warning for the
Black River at Boonville. It`s going to take the forecasted
rainfall to create a flood on Oneida Creek, so we will hold off
warning for that stream until confidence increases. This part of
our region is the area of most concern. Elsewhere, modest river
rises will occur on the Susquehanna and its tributaries with
flows expected to reach cautionary thresholds at several stream
gauges. There is a chance for these rivers to touch minor flood stage,
but confidence is low at this time and we will play the
situation conservatively.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The next few days will feature near-record warmth. Here are the
daily records to keep an eye on for our official climate sites.

SYRACUSE
Daily record highs   66/1957 25th.
Record high minimums 43/1957 25th.

BINGHAMTON
Daily record highs   58/1956 25th.
Record high minimums 43/1961 25th.

SCRANTON (Avoca)
Daily record highs   67/1930 25th.
Record high minimums 46/1930 25th.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch from 7 AM EST this morning through Sunday evening
     for NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ/RRM
HYDROLOGY...JAB
CLIMATE...


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