Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 201849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT, NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL LOW CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FROM KELM THROUGH KITH/KBGM. CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH A BIT MORE IN QUESTION. AT THE
SITES MENTIONED IN NY, IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW THEY SEEM MOST
LIKELY AT THE ELEVATED SITES SO I INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP HERE.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR BY MID THURSDAY MORNING TO VFR IN THE
VALLEYS, BUT MVFR MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE UP ON THE HILLS. ALSO,
ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
THURSDAY MORNING ON.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND LGT OVRNGT
FOG/ST.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN





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