Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 241151
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
651 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring rain to northeast
Pennsylvania this afternoon. Tonight and Sunday low pressure
moving from the mid west to eastern Canada will bring a period
of rain to the entire region later tonight through Sunday
morning. A dry and mild period of weather is expected early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued a winter weather advisory for freezing rain in northern
Oneida County late tonight into Sunday morning.

A leading mid level short wave will move through northern
Pennsylvania this afternoon and spread light rain across much of
northeast Pennsylvania. Measurable precipitation will most
likely remain just south of the border through the daylight
hours. For the rest of central New York, low level moisture
trapped under a subsidence inversion will make for mostly
cloudy skies. Highs will range in the lower to middle 40s.

Tonight through Sunday...Low pressure in the mid west will lift
northeast to Lake Superior by Sunday morning then to James Bay
by evening. A significant mid level short wave combined with a
warm frontal boundary moving through the region will spread rain
across northeast Pennsylvania/southern tier during the evening
hours and the rest of central New York after midnight. Models
continue to indicate the potential for freezing rain from
northern Oneida county south through the western Catskills. The
NAM model soundings show more low level cold air than the GFS.
Issued a winter weather advisory for northern Oneida County
where confidence is highest for icing. Included mention of
patchy freezing rain from the Mohawk Valley to western Catskills
in the HWO. By mid morning Sunday surface temperatures will be
well above freezing ending the threat for freezing rain. The
rain will pull east of the area rather quickly during the late
morning and early afternoon hours as the trailing surface
occlusion moves through. In the warm sector high temperatures
will range from the mid 50s in the Finger Lakes region to mid
40s in the western Catskills. Total rainfall will generally
fall between .75"-1" with locally higher amounts in upslope
areas under southeast flow. At this time the potential for
significant flooding looks unlikely but will continue to monitor
closely and mention in HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
215 AM update...

This period dominated by high pressure and dry air that moves
in Sunday night and continues into Tuesday night. The high moves
from the lower Ohio Valley east and expanding as it reaches the
mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Again very mild with above normal
temperatures due to a broad ridge off the east coast. Highs from
the mid 40s to the lower 50s both days. Lows mostly in the 30s
but coldest Tuesday morning with lows mid 20 to around 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
215 am update...

Unsettled period but much uncertainty. Starts out mild with the
return flow from the high pressure pumping warm air northeast.
An initial slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon as a
surface low and short wave move across southeast Canada. A
weak trailing front drops through the region with a very little
moisture and lift. Most likely will remain dry Wednesday and
maybe Wednesday night. Better precipitation chances for
Thursday and Friday. Models starting to come together on a
scenario. Low pressure moves out of the southern plains at the
base of a large upper level trough. This will bring ample
moisture northeast ahead of it into the area Thursday. The
surface low and trough move through Thursday night then slow
Friday into Saturday off the coast as a nor`easter on the Euro
and GFS. The Canadian keeps the system moving so dry Saturday.
Precipitation will be mostly rain to start probably changing to
snow Thursday night and Friday (into Saturday) as cold air drops
south into the area.

Highs in the 50s Wednesday drop to around 50 Thursday then into
the lower 40s Friday. Lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low level moisture trapped under an inversion will keep
primarily Alternate Required/IFR conditions over the terminals
through mid morning. At KITH/KBGM/KAVP, conditions will
fluctuate near Airport Min through 14Z. Slow improvement will
continue through the morning hours with MVFR/VFR expected at all
sites by early afternoon. A mid level short wave will spread
rain across the KAVP terminal late this afternoon with Alternate
Required conditions likely. Conditions will deteriorate at all
locations overnight into Alternate Required/IFR as widespread
rain moves into the region.

Northwest winds around 5-8 knots becoming light and variable
late this afternoon then southeast overnight at 8-12 knots with
gusts near 20 knots at KRME/KITH/KBGM.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR or IFR restrictions in rain.

Monday-Wednesday....Generally VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM


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