Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 201054
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
654 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather expected this weekend with above average
temperatures and mostly sunny skies. The pattern will become
more unsettled and slightly cooler next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
320 am update...
Very quiet weather continues across the region as a large ridge
of high pressure builds over the ern US today into the weekend.

Main concerns will be focused on the potential for early morning
fog, mainly this morning and again late Saturday night...and the
unseasonably warm temperatures.

A layer of thin cirrus is currently streaming nw-se across the area
on the back side of a departing/weak upper short wave. Have already
started to see a few obs in wrn NY develop fog under this thin
shield, so the potential still exists for some patchy valley fog
this morning, even with the cloud cover and 20kt winds in the
boundary layer. Fog should be isolated and patchy.

Upper level ridge will begin to push in from the west today with
skies clearing off and temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. A steady 10-15mph nw wind at the surface today may
help keep temps a few deg cooler than yesterday.

The air mass advecting in will be very dry, which will limit the amt
of fog formation tonight, or drop the chances to near zero. Do not
have any mention of fog tonight in the forecast.

Saturday may be the warmest day of the week with highs topping out
in the mid 70s. The upper ridge shifts slowly to the east later in
the day Saturday, which will bring in a swly flow and added moisture
along with more cloud cover. The presence of clouds, and 20 kt winds
in the boundary layer may inhibit fog formation Saturday night, but
the air mass should be more moist, with a slightly higher chance of
fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 am update... Although pushing to the east by this time, the
upper ridge near the east coast should still exert enough
influence to keep CNY/NEPA rain-free during this period.

Although perhaps a couple of degrees lower than Saturday due to
added cloud cover, highs Sunday afternoon will still average
well above normal for late October, ranging from the upper 60s-
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 am update... In the big picture, the above referenced upper
ridge axis will continue to shift eastward into the Atlantic,
allowing a deepening trough axis to settle in over the eastern
CONUS. As a result, our very dry conditions as of late, should
ultimately be replaced by a rainy period across CNY/NEPA by the
middle of next week.

Although these large-scale ideas are well agreed upon by the
models, timing differences are still evident, especially early
next week with regards to the onset of steadier rainfall. Once
again, we played the middle road in this regard, indicating only
widely separated showers Monday, evolving into a steadier rain
by Tuesday. Showery conditions are likely to persist later in
the week as well, due to the proximity of the upper-level
trough.

Temperatures should start out mild early in the week, but will
trend cooler and more seasonable with time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Little change to the forecast with VFR conditions. West winds
light and variable becoming northwest at 8 to 12 kts with gusts
14 to 20 kt in the afternoon...before becoming light and
variable after 00Z this evening.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...Mostly VFR. Possible early morning
restrictions in fog at KELM on Sunday.

Monday...Mostly VFR but possible restrictions at times due to
showers.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely with occasional rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...BJT/TAC



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