Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 191902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
302 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

An upper level disturbance will move across NY and PA this
afternoon and evening bringing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to our area. After this disturbance passes by,
high pressure will build into our region for Sunday and Monday
with fair weather and seasonable temperatures. The next chance
for precipitation will come Tuesday as a cold front approaches
the region.


Scattered showers are developing across western NY and northwest
Pennsylvania as weak capping indicated on the 12z Buffalo
sounding begins to break down. Strongest storms are beginning to
develop over eastern Ohio and these will track east-southeast
across western Pa during the next few hours remaining well to
our south and west. Latest HRRR and RAP forecasts continue to
indicate only marginal levels of instability in our area with
MLCAPE values maxing out near or just above 500 J/kg and the
best chances for organized convection remaining to our south and
west. We are expecting scattered showers with isolated thunder
to move across our area during the mid afternoon through early
evening followed by clearing overnight, then patchy low clouds
and fog around daybreak Sunday. Sunday looks like a mostly sunny
and seasonably warm day with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s
as high pressure builds across the area.


300 PM EDT Update...
Minor changes were made to the previous forecast. Zonal flows
will prevail over the region from Sunday night through Tuesday
morning, combined with ridging at mid-lvls and surface high
pressure. This combination will result in mostly sunny skies,
above normal temperatures with no chance for precip.

Temps Monday night will range in the mid 50s/low 60s. Temps Tues
afternoon will rise into the mid/upper 80s and fall into the 60s
Tues night.


300 PM EDT Update...
Updated with new WPC guidance...
Surface high pressure will slide off to the east early Tuesday
morning as the next storm system approaches the region from the
west. There continues to be fairly decent model agreement on the
timing of the next system with showers moving into western NY
as a sfc low moves NE into Quebec Tuesday night and a fropa
moves across Ny/PA Tues night. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely across the region late Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night. This could be our next shot for a widespread rainfall
event. The upper level shortwave that will force the sfc
low/fropa across the region will be slow to move east, thus
showers and and a possible rumble of thunder will be possible
through Thursday. High pressure is expected to build back into
the area Thurs evening.


Scattered showers with isolated thunder will develop across the
area this afternoon into this evening. A shower is possible at
any of the TAF sites between 19z and 01z today and have included
a tempo group at BGM/ELM/AVP for a showers where we believe the
best chance for a shower will be. After 01z skies will become
clear to partly cloudy with patches of low cloud and fog after
06z. Skies will become mostly sunny on Sunday with just
scattered cu. Winds will be west at 10 to 15 kts with a few
higher gusts this afternoon, northwest at less than 10 kts
tonight and west at around 10 kts on Sunday.


Sunday through Monday...VFR. Possible IFR in valley fog early.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible in thunderstorms.





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