Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 280826
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
426 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S SUNDAY, AND
REMAIN THERE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM COULD CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED INTO NY AND PA THIS MORNING AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND
VALLEY FOG OVER THE AREA NOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. DRIER
AIR WILL REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW BUT SOME SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS SHOULD FORM WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS WHILE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND WEAK UL
TROUGH.

TONIGHT SKIES START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THEN CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE NW
ZONES LATE AND BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE SW. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 16C. HIGH TEMPS RISE INTO THE 80S IN
THE CITIES AND SW CWA AND UPPER 70S NE RURAL AREAS.

MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE SUNDAY SHOWERS WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT. KEPT POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND THEN ONLY IN THE NW
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. DELAYED ONSET UNTIL VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE INSTABILITY.

SUNDAY NIGHT SOME CLEARING AS THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR. NO
SHOWERS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
420 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. A GREAT STRETCH OF
LATE SUMMER WEATHER COMING TO THE AREA AS THE STRONGEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF THE SUMMER DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF 500 MB TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS/GEM HAS A WEAKER TROUGH AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH UNDER
UPPER UPPER RIDGE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 0Z ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE AND ALLOWS IT TO BE THE MORE
DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL CAMPS BY UTILIZING MODEL
BLEND PROCEDURE (SUPERBLEND) FOR LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE UPSHOT
FOR GRIDDED FORECAST IS THAT EACH DAY HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEPICTED DUE MAINLY TO DIURNAL EFFECTS PEAKING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF ECMWF SOLUTION ENDS UP VERIFYING
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT
THINKING WHILE IF RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT CONDITIONS STAY DRY.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DENSE VALLEY FOG IN THE TWIN TIERS. AT KELM, CONDITIONS WILL
BOUNCE THROUGH 09Z VARYING FROM MVFR TO IFR THEN AFTER 09Z LOCK IN
AROUND AIRPORT MINS. BY 14Z CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR. AT
KITH/KBGM, MVFR IN MIST IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. REST OF
TERMINALS WILL BE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD VFR IS EXPECTED WITH JUST FAIR WEATHER CU TODAY THEN CI
THIS EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING W/NW AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR WITH
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING WITH
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM AS USUAL. SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BUT RESTRICTIONS NOT WIDESPREAD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM


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