Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 201847
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKS. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS
THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES. DURING THIS SLOW
TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE PCPN AS AND KEEP
MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE AS SOME
SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT. NEXT WV WL APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z AT RME,
SYR, ITH AND ELM. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT BGM UNTIL CLOSER
TO 08Z-12Z. ONCE STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN, EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO FOLLOW. MVFR WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU 18Z TUESDAY.

DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED AT RME, SYR AND AVP WITH LGT/VRB ELSEWHERE.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 3-8 KTS AFTER 12Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN





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