Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 040540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION, WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER THE AREA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE... TWO SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. ONE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS,
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THE SECOND WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGIONS, AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES, SOME UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS, AND DECENT
DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR (EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-40 KT),
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS IN NATURE, AND
LARGELY NON-SEVERE. THIS IS DUE MAINLY TO ONLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY
(ML CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG) AND WEAK MID-LAYER LAPSE RATES (AS
INDICATED BY RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO-ANALYSIS).

ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, AS
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE TWIN TIERS.

SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE LATER THIS EVENING
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO PLATEAU),
WITH ACTIVITY FINALLY DEPARTING AFTER ABOUT 1-3 AM.

EVEN THOUGH THE GROUND WILL BE WET IN SPOTS DUE TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY, A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BUBBLE UP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL NY), COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING, AS
ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK RAIN-FREE, WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVERHEAD, AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION/SINKING MOTION
ALOFT.

ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN, A BROAD
CONSENSUS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY, TIED TO THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH (APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY), FROM OUR NORTHEAST PA COUNTIES SOUTHWARD, WITH CENTRAL
NY STAYING MAINLY DRY. MORE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER (MOSTLY IN THE
70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THIS PERIOD. THE LONG TERM BEGINS
WITH A WEAK TROF EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS A SERIES OF DIFFUSE WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
FLOW, A MORE DEFINED CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE LOWER
MIDATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THE
MAIN LOW IS TOO FAR SOUTH INITIALLY TO AFFECT US, THE TROF WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COOL HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THROUGH DAYBREAK CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KITH, INCLUDED
A TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ESPECIALLY SINCE A
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED LATE THIS EVENING. AT KELM, INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z DUE TO CLOSE TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREAD AND GUIDANCE FROM LOCAL CHECKLIST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY WITH MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THEREFORE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS BUT TIMING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AROUND 18Z AND
00Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM


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