Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 280238
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
838 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROUGH AXIS HAS NOW MOVED JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...SO
THE AREA IS NOW UNDER A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD CEASE SOON AFTER SUNSET. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS REFLECTIVE OF THIS TRANSITION.

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTH OF KMYL ENDING BY 04Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CUMULUS UNTIL 04Z. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20
KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...BREEZY AMD COOL THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.  TROUGH WILL BE IN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND
NORTH OF N.DAKOTA BY LATE TUESDAY.  COLD TONIGHT THEN MODERATING
TEMPS TUESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO
LATE JULY NORMALS ON WEDNESDAY.  BUT TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE
COLDEST JULY NIGHTS SINCE 2000 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO 40S IN THE VALLEYS.  HIGHER VALLEYS AND BASINS IN CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING.  TUESDAY WILL BE 6-10 DEGS WARMER THAN
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER 6-10 DEGS WARMER.  MIN TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MORE SLOWLY...WED MORNING SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGS WARMER THAN
TUESDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AND ONLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY.  SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING IN NRN
VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE ON A VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR OUR CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE
RIDGE CIRCULATION...BUT CONSENSUS SHOWS ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDE EASTERN OREGON...SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH


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