Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 022203
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE
NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND
SOUTHEAST OREGON LATER THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST
FACTOR WITH THIS COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED AS STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT PASS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED DIURNAL MIXING. DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVES INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RAPID CLEARING...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SITS OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
TREND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AND KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT A PASSING MOIST
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD CLIP THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS MODEL SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 12 KTS...WILL INCREASE TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEGINNING AT 02/21Z IN
SE OREGON...ARRIVING IN THE MAGIC VALLEY 03/07Z. PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03/12Z...INCLUDING MYL. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 10-15 KTS...INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS AFTER
03/06Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....AB/BW/DD
AVIATION.....AB/BW



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