Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 271649
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
949 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOWING A
WEAKNESS MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW. SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THIS MORNING...ABOVE THE SURFACE
INVERSION WHICH EXTENDS TO ABOUT 5K FEET MSL AS SEEN ON THE 12Z
KBOI SOUNDING. THIS WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO
EASTERN IDAHO BY LATE MORNING. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LAY
ACROSS BAKER AND NORTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON AND
THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SHADOW
MUCH OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH OROGRAPHIC FLOW
INTO THE BOISE MTNS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WHICH FULLY MIX. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT HAVE MADE
MINOR UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WINDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY UNDER BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.
NORTH OF A KBKE-KLLJ LINE AFTER 18Z DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
BY 00Z. SNOW LEVEL 6500 FT MSL NEAR KMYL TO 9000 FT MSL ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES AND FROM THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI
TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALOFT...A WEAKENING RIDGE
AXIS IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW SW
FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION IN
THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A VERY WARM WED...THANKSGIVING WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS MILD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...MORE OR LESS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO BOISE TO
FAIRFIELD. SNOW LEVEL RANGES FROM AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO
6500 FEET IN THE NORTH TODAY...AND WILL COME DOWN TO A RANGE OF
FROM AROUND 7500 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE
NORTH TOMORROW. TOMORROW...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH
LIKE TODAY...BUT THE LINE WILL CREEP SOUTH IN SE OREGON LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SE OREGON.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE TIMING OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA
IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....KA


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