Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 291540
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
940 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS...
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 12 KTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WARMING THROUGH MONDAY BUT OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL WX
UNDER BROAD AND GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.  MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN SATURDAY.  ANOTHER 8 DEGS
WARMER MONDAY IN OREGON AND 10 DEGS WARMER IN IDAHO...TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.  LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  LATEST MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST.  LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DECREASED POPS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THIS
FIRST TROUGH MOVES EAST ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION.  THIS BROAD TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER BAKER COUNTY
OREGON AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A STRONGER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
AND ALSO KICK THE BROAD TROUGH TO THE EAST.  AS THIS TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE NEVADA
BORDER.  DECREASING POPS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY.  LATEST MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE CLOSED LOW DIGGING
SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS CLOSED LOW BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF
THE LOW WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN.  FOR NOW WILL WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA


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