Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 120255
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
855 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...THERE WERE STILL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NV
AND COUPLE STRIKES IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
HARNEY COUNTY. MODERATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
MALHEUR COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE /UPHILL/ OVER
FAR SW IDAHO. FORECAST HAS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DECREASING
OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS STILL EXPECTED. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THROUGH 06Z.  OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURGE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW OFF THE CA/OR COAST. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE
ABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO GET STARTED IN SOUTHEAST OREGON...BUT
GETTING SOME CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN SOUTHWEST
OREGON. WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND STILL VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO JUST PULSE UP AND DOWN AND BE
MOSTLY DRY AT THE SURFACE WITH GUSTY WINDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER...BUT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH MIGHT BE ABLE
TO GUST OUT INTO THE VALLEYS LATER. THE BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLED AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY...AND A RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD BE WARMER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...LOW OFF THE
COAST STARTS TO DRIFT INLAND IN THE GFS/EC...WHILE THE 12Z NAM
KEPT IT WELL OFF THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE 18Z NAM IS COMING MORE IN
LINE WITH GFS/EC. NEVERTHELESS ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE INCREASING OVER OREGON BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH A THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CASCADES AND DRIFTING
NORTHEAST. THESE COULD CLIP OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING LOW.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN
OREGON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A MINOR SHORTWAVE...ORIGINATING OFF
THE COAST OF WASHINGTON WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN GO UP AND OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A
BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EXTREME WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING BURNS... BAKER CITY... AND MCCALL ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA INCLUDING
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RIGHT NOW... IT LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES REACH THEIR PEAK AND THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE AREA. THEN...A VERY SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...TB
PREV LONG TERM....JB/JT


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