Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 300912
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
312 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. AS
OF 3 AM A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER WEST BAKER COUNTY WERE CREEPING
NORTHWARD AT 5-10 MPH...WHILE CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING ACROSS
IDAHO. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 100 WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVER THE CWFA.
STORMS WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH MOST STORMS MUCH LIKE THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED JEROME WITH 40 MPH WINDS AND 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME VERY STRONG CELLS MAY SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AGAIN AS WAS REPORTED IN ELMORE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH
ALOFT DUE TO AN H7-H5 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEAR THE ORE- IDA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS TO
PROVIDE BROAD LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE SCATTERED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES OVER IDAHO.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE IN
THE RECENT EXTENDED MODELS IS WHERE WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS STILL
BRINING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT
EACH NEW MODEL RUN PLACES THE MOISTURE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECIDED TO
TREND TOWARD A BROAD BRUSH OF POPS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. LATEST MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE MOVING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. LATEST MODELS SHOWING A BREAK DOWN OF THE STAGNANT PATTERN
WITH A SHIFT TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE ON
TUESDAY THAT WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER ANY TAF SITES.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA


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