Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 070259 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
836 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT-DURATION PULSE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON IN OWYHEE COUNTY...AND THIS EVENING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE.  HEAVY RAIN WAS THE MAIN FEATURE OF
THESE STORMS BUT ONE STORM NEAR MOUNTAIN HOME AFB MAY HAVE HAD HAIL
AS WELL.  AS OF 8 PM PDT ONLY A COUPLE STORMS REMAINED IN NRN
GOODING CO/ID...MOVING TOWARD THE SE.  ALL STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT BY
SUNSET.  LESS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC
UPPER LOW COMES INLAND VIA CALIF.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF KBOI AND ALONG THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON...THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS BECOMING
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 04Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-15
KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL OWYHEE
COUNTY. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH RADAR
DEPICTING HEAVY RAIN. THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING INCLUDE OWYHEE COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. THE AIR MASS IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY NORTH TO BAKER CITY AND MCCALL WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A REDUCED
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER STABLE AIR
MASS SPREADS INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT AND SPREAD INTO OUR AREA...LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER AND OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THE STORM MOTION REMAINS SLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON TUESDAY THEN LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A VERY WET END OF
THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY AND
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH
DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
WEST COAST BY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE
OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SO HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY NEAR NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH


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