Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 211239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
639 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 639 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Wave clouds along the Front Range foothills have increased and
stayed around longer than expected. Latest Simulated WRF satellite
imagery show this cloud hanging around for the whole morning. Have
adjusted grids and forecast for this. Depending on its thickness,
and how long it hangs around, maximum temperatures may be
affected. Will monitor the clouds progression.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A large upper ridge will move east across the area, with its axis
passing overhead this evening. Warmer temperatures, clear skies and
dry weather will result across the forecast area. Dry air between
750 and 550 mb, as evidenced by the soundings from KGJT and KDEN
has produced humidities in the teens across the higher mountains.
Humidities will be low across the entire forecast area today,
however winds will generally be light. Northwest winds will
increase across the northern and northeastern plains which will
elevate fire danger, but conditions should remain below criteria.

Even though skies are expected to be clear tonight, the upper
ridge and surface lee trough will produce minimum temperatures 10
to 15 degrees warmer than climatologically normal, especially
east of the divide and over the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

The large upper level ridge will remain in control of our weather
through Sunday with much above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. Westerly flow strengthens a bit more on Saturday with
a weak disturbance passing across the northern Rockies. That will
bring breezy conditions to the mountains, northern foothills, and
locations near the Wyoming border. Fire danger will be elevated in
those locations but should stay just shy of criteria. Temperatures
will warm a few more degrees with continued downslope flow and
warm advection aloft. That should push highs to around 80F on most
of the plains (Denver record for October 22nd is 84F set in 2003).

By Sunday, a weak backdoor cold front sinks across the plains.
That would bring several degrees of cooling, although highs will
still be above normal.

On Monday, southwest flow will begin to increase as upper ridge
axis shifts eastward. This will allow mid/upper level moisture to
stream into the state. As a result, expect scattered rain and snow
showers to develop in the high country Monday afternoon and
night, with a few lingering into Tuesday with passage of an upper
level disturbance. Most of the precipitation will be confined to
the mountains and western slope of Colorado, as in the lee of the
Rockies there is mostly downslope and little if any low level
forcing noted at this time. Only slight cooling of daytime highs
is expected.

For the latter half of next week, expect more dry weather and a
continuation of above normal temperatures. The upper level ridge
is expected to pop back up over the Central and Southern Rockies
in response to a deep digging trough over the eastern Pacific.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 324 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR conditions expected through early Saturday morning under
mostly clear skies. Winds will remain light and mostly diurnally
driven at speeds less than 10 kts. Drainage winds tonight will be
enhanced slightly, could see speeds closer to 12 knots.




SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Kriederman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.