Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 020948
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
348 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS DRYING WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE IS
STILL A FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO BUT THESE WILL BE
GONE BY SUNRISE. GIVEN THE INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL
BE SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WHICH IS NOW JUST ENTERING MONTANA WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BORDERING WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE SEEMS A BIT LIMITED BUT THERE IS A STRONG
JET STREAK WHICH NOSES INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
SOME STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT WITH
SHORT DURATION NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ONLY
MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS LIKELY
INTO THE MID 30S BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WINDS AND CLOUDS TO
KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRI WITH COOL HIGH PRES
AT THE SFC.  AFTN HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NR 60 DEGREES.  WITH FAIRLY STG WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
COMBINED WITH DECENT MIXING WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND OVER THE PLAINS NR THE WY-NE BORDER. LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAY DROP TO OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE ERN US
WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER NRN CO.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
LITTLE MOISTURE ON SAT WHILE AT THE SFC A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
NERN CO.  THUS SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS AS
READINGS OVER NERN CO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  ONCE AGAIN
WILL SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NR THE WY-NE
BORDER.  ON SUN A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MAY MOVE INTO NERN CO
WHICH MAY DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  THE
ECMWF SHOWS SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING
POSITIONS OF THE FAR NERN PLAINS SUN AFTN INTO SUN EVENING WHILE
THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FCST DRY OVER THE FAR
NERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE WOULD BE A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA.

ON MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NWLY.  ONCE AGAIN THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AFFECTING THE NERN PLAINS WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA WHILE THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER. AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS SHOULD BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS OVER NERN CO. BY TUE
BOTH MODELS SHOW DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH WARMER
TEMPS SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN
CO. ON WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY HOWEVER IT STILL
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS OVER NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

EXPECT MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MIXING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-8Z
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


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