Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOU 291556
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014

OVERALL THE TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH SNOW DEVELOP AS NNELY UPSLOPE WINDS FOLLOW ITS
PASSAGE. THE MDLS MAINTAIN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AOB 700 MB. WEAK TO
MODERATE MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 00Z WITHE THE
TROUGH OVER SRN ID/SWRN WY AND THE JETSTREAM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN/4CRNERS REGION. FOR TONIGHT...THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. AS IT DOES...THE JETSTREAM
PACKING 150 KT TRANSLATES NORTH INTO SRN COLORADO SO COULD SEE
SOME BANDED CSI SNOWFALL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWFA
TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD ZONES 34..36..37 AS WELL AS 45..46
AND 49 TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THESE AREAS HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BASED OFF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS.
OVERALL WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ALTHO COLD IN THE MINUS 10F TO
MINUS 20F RANGE ARE NOT SUFFICIENT FOR AN WIND CHILL ADVISORY...
WL MENTION THE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT FAIRLY WEAK WEST
OF THE DIVIDE TODAY...WITH SELY WINDS TONIGHT FAVORING ZONES 34
AND 37 THE MOST. WL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN ZONE 31
WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING ZONE PACKAGE.  TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT DROP WELL BELOW ZERO BUT NO RECORD SETTING PERFORMANCE
MINS EXPECTED AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT FURTHER COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014

STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY AND
CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY. FOR NORTHEAST
COLORADO...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
OVER MONTANA 12Z TUESDAY WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST TO EAST UPSLOPE WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT THIS
TO ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH AROUND AN INCH OF FLUFF
POSSIBLE FOR THE DENVER AREA AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE 30TH IS 8 DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD BE BROKEN.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES
WITH LOWS -10F TO -20F ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. COULD GET CLOSE TO
-30F IN SOME OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. BEST CHANCE FOR A RECORD
LOW MAY BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT ON THE 30TH. THE RECORD LOW ON THE 30TH
IS -11 AND ON THE 31ST IT IS -19.

THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT
WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF COLORADO. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 856 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014

EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS
WINTER STORM PUSHES OVER COLORADO. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE
HIRES MODELS...THERE SEEMS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SNOW INTENSITY
AND PERHAPS CEILINGS IN THE 19-24Z TIME FRAME....TRIED TO CONVEY
THAT IN THE TAFS. WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGH...DROPPED SOME OF THE SPEEDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ034-036-
037-039>041-045-046-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.