Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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353
FXUS61 KBTV 280845
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
445 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A relatively dry day is expected today in comparison to Tuesday
with the areal coverage of showers being a bit limited this
afternoon. The best chance to see any showers will be across
north central and northeast Vermont with just a slight chance
elsewhere. It is still looking like a pattern change takes place
beginning Thursday and continuing right into the weekend. Expect
warmer and wetter conditions during this period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...Still some lingering moisture
around early this morning with clouds...some fog...and a couple
of stray showers. These conditions will linger until just after
sunrise and then we should see a window of improving conditions
with partly cloudy conditions for a better part of the day.
Highs will generally be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. In terms of
the convective potential today...shortwave trough that enhanced
the storms over the area yesterday has moved east of the region
and northwest flow aloft has developed over the area. Not
seeing much in the way of any dynamic forcing...but there
appears to be a weak shortwave southeast of James Bay that will
move southeast today and could provide some synoptic scale lift
to the northern tier of our area...especially north central and
northeast Vermont. Coldest air aloft has also moved east of the
area...but steep mid level lapse rates are expected to develop
once again over the area and this may result in sufficient
instability for convection to develop. While dynamic and
thermodynamic support is not great...it still may be just enough
to enhance the potential for showers this afternoon. Have
continued the idea of a slight chance of showers over much of
the area with a chance of showers for north central and
northeast Vermont.

The showers should end around sunset and most of the night will
remain dry. During the early morning hours...the flow aloft
backs to the west and allows a warm front/moisture to move
toward the region toward daybreak on Thursday. Thus have
included a chance of rain for parts of northern New York around
sunrise. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...Forecast for the middle to end of
the week remains largely unchanged with models in very good
agreement with the general synoptic pattern minus some minor
timing differences. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes
Thursday will push a west/east oriented warm front over the
region with showers developing across northern New York during
the morning, and becoming widespread across the entire forecast
area through the afternoon hours and into the first half of
Thursday night. Instability is rather meager through the low/mid
levels for much of Thursday limiting thunderstorm potential,
but as the front begins to lift northward towards the
international border Thursday evening/night, some surface
instability builds across northern New York so will keep in a
mention of thunder there. By Friday morning the front will be
lingering around the border lifting northward through the day
with shower activity waning late Thursday night into early
Friday, but as the region becomes firmly entrenched in the warm
sector expect some diurnally and surface instability driven
convection to develop Friday afternoon/evening with the threat
for heavy rain increasing as PWATs rise to around 1.5".


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled conditions continue to
be on the horizon for the weekend as a slow moving cold front to
our west serving as the focus for additional showers and
thunderstorm development Saturday mid-day through Sunday.
Saturday may begin on the dry side as the North Country remains
in the warm sector and some weak ridging aloft shifts over the
region. As this ridging moves eastward by mid-day, increasing
southwesterly flow between the approaching cold front and high
pressure anchored northeast of Bermuda will usher in additional
moisture with PWATs surging to 1.5-2" and dewpoints climbing
into the upper 60s and low 70s. Several waves of low pressure
riding along the frontal boundary to our west combined with
ample surface instability will produce periods of moderate to
locally heavy rain Saturday afternoon and night, with the front
shifting west to east across the area Sunday. Once again, heavy
rain will be a concern with model soundings showing
unidirectional flow ahead of the front in the low/mid levels
with training of storms a distinct possibility. Confidence
continues to increase on the potential for flash flooding given
recent rains and above normal precip over the past month
combined with additional rainfall amounts in the 1-2" range on
top of the 1-1.5" we`re likely to see Thursday and Friday. While
still several days away, this developing situation bears
watching over the next 48 hours.

Behind the front, quieter conditions are forecast for Monday and the
July 4th holiday as high pressure returns to the region. Seasonal
temperatures in the 70s/80s are likely, as well as more comfortable
humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through
the period. Early this morning...mainly through 12z...there will
be some lingering lower clouds and some fog over parts of
northern New York that will result in periods of IFR and LIFR
conditions at KMSS and KSLK. Some showers are expected this
afternoon but areal coverage should be limited and thus have
only mentioned vicinity showers between 18z and 00z. Light winds
this morning will become west and northwest this afternoon at
speeds of 10 knots or less before tapering off after 00z again.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Evenson



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