Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 270219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS COULD FORM OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (<10 KNOTS) GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
LOCALLY STRONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...TURBULENT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BRIEF IFR OR LOWER IN HEAVY RAIN...AND PERHAPS
SOME SMALL HAIL. BROAD SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI


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