Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 300238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. LOOKING UPSTREAM
...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN
ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48
HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z. BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK
REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 10-12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST. CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT LARGER CLOUD SHIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH EVENTUAL
CLEARING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...WHICH SHOULD THEN BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK AND KMPV THROUGH 12Z.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT KBTV AND KRUT DURING THIS
TIME. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER






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