Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 310547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 147 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER



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