Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 231120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION
ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM
KCXX AND CANADIAN RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z.
HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS FROM PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT SLK TODAY...AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW CONTS ACRS OUR
TAF SITES. LATEST IR SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...SOME ANTICIPATED A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK TODAY BTWN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SLK.
ALSO...CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER...BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON TAF SITES WL BE MINIMAL.
GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING >90% BTWN
925MB AND 800MB THRU 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND AFT 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS < 6 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 15
AND 20 KNOTS AT MSS TODAY WITH THE ALIGNED SW TO NE FLW OF WIND
ACRS THE SLV.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT
IN CLRING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK ON WEDS AND THURS
MORNINGS. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






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