Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 011127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST VERMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN OCCURS BY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOLER MORE SEASONABLE EARLY FALL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 727 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUD
COVER MAY BE A TAD MORE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES SO HAVE LOWERED HOURLY
AND MAX T VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS. STILL
EXPECTING SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THESE AREAS...BUT IT MAY OCCUR A
BIT LATER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AS
MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS OUR
AREA...COURTESY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST. IN MANY RESPECTS TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...WITH VARIABLE/TRANSIENT CLOUD COVER THINNING
THROUGH THE DAY NORTH AND WEST...AND COOLER/CLOUDIER EAST/SOUTH
WITH MOIST MARITIME-MODIFIED AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
DIFFERENCES DO EXIST HOWEVER...MOST NOTABLY IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL MAKE INROADS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN VT COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY AND BASED OFF
LATEST MODEL BLENDED QPF PROGS HAVE RAISED POPS UPWARD
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES ACCORDINGLY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE UPON A QUICK LOOK AT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AT 300
AM. FURTHER NORTH A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL EXIST SUCH THAT MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTY LINE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES A
BLEND OF NON-BIAS-CORRECTED DATA...OFFERING VALUES RANGING THROUGH
THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS DACKS/ERN VT...AND MILDEST
CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH THE 70F
MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FAR SOUTH AND
EAST TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS UPPER H5 LOW EXITS OFFSHORE
TOWARD THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER...WE`LL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER OUR
GRUNGY/MOIST AIRMASS WITH VERY LIGHT BL FLOW AND NO REAL MECHANISM
(WIND OR OTHERWISE) TO AID IN SCOURING VARIABLE/LOW CLOUD COVER
OUT OF OUR REGION. THUS EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR NIGHT TO TONIGHT...A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS WE LIKE TO SAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE WHERE
PARTIAL CLEARING IS MORE PRONOUNCED.

THEREAFTER (THU/FRI)...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVERALL CONTROL OF
REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MID AND UPPER FLOW SLOWLY
AMPLIFIES AND DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. PBL DRYING PROCESSES FINALLY BEGIN TO KICK IN
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY
CLOUDY IN MOST SPOTS. A QUICK LOOK AT MODEL-AVERAGED 18Z 925-850
MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SOME
4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY FALL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE 65 TO 75 RANGE ON BOTH DAYS AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO
A GOOD BET IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED FROM PRIOR DAYS. GLOBAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PORTEND A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING FROM MEAN
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO ONE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A NEGATIVE AO TELECONNECTION PATTERN. AFTER A
SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT/SAT NIGHT...EXPECT A RETURN TO AT OR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY OCTOBER WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

POTENT 500 MB CYCLONE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH ACCOMPANYING WELL-DEFINED SFC COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SAT/SAT NIGHT. A SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE
PATTERN IS. 00Z/01 GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS FROPA COMPARED TO PRIOR
RUNS AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH THE ECMWF. SHAPING
UP TO BE A BREEZY FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WIND FIELDS
INCREASE MARKEDLY /BY 12Z SATURDAY 850 MB WINDS NEAR 60 KTS PER
THE GFS/. COULD SEE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN
SPOTS ON SAT IF BETTER MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE. STRONG
DYNAMICS/FRONTAL FORCING ALSO OFFERS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A FINE
LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST...I`VE SHOWN HIGH LIKELY POPS SAT FOR NORTHERN NY
AND SPREADING INTO VT SAT AFTN/EVE. HIGHS SATURDAY UNLIKELY TO
CLIMB MUCH MORE THAN UPPER 50S/MID-60S UNDER OVERCAST. THERMAL
PROFILES COOL SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT /925 MB TEMPS +3 TO +5C BY
12Z SUN/ WITH LOWS SUN NIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN VT.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCE POPS (PRIMARILY FROM
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS). HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL -
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IN THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN POPS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WAA
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ALLOWS TEMPS TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MANY TAFS THIS MORNING CONTENDING WITH
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS (AS LOW AS 200 FT) WITH INTERVALS OF MIST AT
TIMES WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1 SM. ST. LAWRENCE/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
DRAINAGE AND EAST VT SOUTHEAST MARINE LAYER FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO
THE LOW CEILINGS. THE PRIMARY AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
WHEN THESE LOW CEILINGS MIX OUT AND THERE`S MUCH DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS OCCURS. FOLLOWED THE BTV-6 WHICH SHOWS A SLOW...GRADUAL
LIFT TO MVFR BETWEEN 15-17Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS
LATER IN THE AFTN. WINDS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT EACH TAF SITE BUT
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT: LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE AND LIGHT SFC FLOW CONTINUES.
EASTERLY MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE TAFS LATER TONIGHT
WITH SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO LOWER ONCE
AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR...WITH PERIODS OF MIST INTERSPERSED. MPV STANDS
BEST SHOT AT IFR CEILINGS BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF. WINDS
LIGHT (TENDING EASTERLY).

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 18Z THU: LINGERING LOW CEILINGS/FOG BURN OFF TO VFR
CONDITIONS.

18Z THU - 06Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM
06-15Z EACH DAY.

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.