Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021451
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
851 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT/S SHORTWAVE. MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY PER
WEAK CANADIAN SFC RIDGE WHICH HAS SETTLED EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND PV IN THE DAKOTAS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY MODEST/SKINNY CAPE...SO WILL SUSTAIN LOW POPS FROM 18-24Z FOR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. AREA OF PV PUSHING ACROSS WA WILL
APPROACH OUR NW AND MAY PRODUCE WEAK ACTIVITY OVER OUR MTNS AND IN
OUR NW PARTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH AIRMASS OVER
OUR WEST IS MARKEDLY DRIER. OTHERWISE TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...DRY
AND COOLER FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS STAYING BELOW
90F FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK. SMOKY SKIES ARE A RESULT OF THE
ABUNDANT WILDFIRE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STRONG SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
QUIETER DAY IS IN STORE TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH WAS NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND LEAVING US WITH A MUCH MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. HAVE CONFINED THE ACTIVITY TODAY TO THE FAR EAST AS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK ASCENT DUE TO THE TAIL OF A 55KT JET
MAX WORKING THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
OVER THESE AREAS TODAY WITH MUCH LOWER CAPES. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.

A SHORTWAVE WAS RIDING OVER TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND
WEAKENING AS IT GOES. THAT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN
ZONES THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
THAT ONE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED LOW POPS FOR IT.
CAPE LIMITED...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HIGHS TODAY
WITH TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 29C. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MOST CRITICAL PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE AT THE
BEGINNING...DURING SAT AND SAT NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SE THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN DURING SAT...THEN
DEEPEN INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES E SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT S THROUGH N MT ON SAT. SAT WILL BE HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS ALOFT WERE NOT
VERY STRONG SO DO NOT EXPECT A WINDY DAY. MODELS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN DRIVING THE FRONT S THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND A WIND SHIFT
TO THE N/NE. THE PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION AND WIND SHIFT WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY
GIVEN THAT IT IS ALSO JULY FOURTH AND FIREWORKS COULD CREATE FIRE
STARTS. FOR NOW...WILL HEADLINE THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FOLLOW SAT NIGHT/S FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S
THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM UP WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUE...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS SAT/S WARM
UP. A MORE ACTIVE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER THE TUE NIGHT COLD
FRONT...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY. AREAS OF SMOKE
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR E OF KBIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 061/091 065/095 059/076 056/081 059/086 059/077
    0/U 20/B    21/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
LVM 089 053/092 056/095 054/077 049/081 052/086 053/077
    1/U 21/B    11/U    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 089 058/093 061/098 059/079 055/083 058/089 059/080
    0/U 20/U    21/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 086 060/091 064/096 060/078 053/081 058/087 060/079
    0/B 00/U    11/B    33/W    11/B    12/T    33/T
4BQ 085 058/088 063/095 061/079 055/081 059/086 061/080
    1/B 10/U    11/U    22/T    21/B    12/T    34/T
BHK 081 056/086 060/092 058/076 050/076 054/082 057/076
    2/T 00/U    01/U    33/T    21/U    12/T    33/T
SHR 084 055/088 058/092 057/075 051/078 054/083 056/077
    1/U 11/B    21/U    22/T    33/T    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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