Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 010240
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
840 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...

Current forecast is in good shape. An upper low and surface low
over North Dakota will continue to wrap clouds and isolated
showers into Eastern Montana this evening. The shower activity has
become more isolated out across Fallon County so I did lower pops
to just a slight chance for this area. However, mostly cloudy
skies will remain throughout the night. Winds across the forecast
area have been diminishing throughout the evening and will
continue to do so as the evening progresses. Except for the far
east, skies will be mostly clear tonight. Overnight lows will be
chilly with upper 30s to lower 40s common. Updated forecast has
been sent. Hooley

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Upper low over the Dakotas is wrapping precipitation and wind
into our eastern zones this afternoon. Have not spotted any
lightning yet...but we may see an embedded strike here or there
before this all moves out this evening. Proggs have 500mb heights
building over our region tonight into Wednesday. However, ridging
will be offset by a weak short wave traveling the mean W/NW flow
aloft. This short wave energy may produce some late day isolated
showers...primarily over the high country. Otherwise, look for
less wind and warmer temperatures tomorrow. Thursday will be a bit
warmer with another weak short wave moving over the region to
allow a slight chance of late day convection again. Overall,
seasonal temps and a minimal chance of precipitation the next
couple of days. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Overall, drier weather and a warming trend can be expected
through the long term. Models remain consistent in amplifying a
ridge over the West Coast through the weekend, putting the area
under dry northwesterly flow aloft. By Sunday, models prog a cut-
off low over southern California to lift north and east into the
Great Basin, falling apart and filling along the way. Energy
associated with this wave should be enough to give us some diurnal
mountain showers/thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. Models
show temperatures approaching 90 degrees by Monday. Made only
minor changes to this forecast package with decent agreement
between models. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers continue to linger from Miles City to the Dakotas.
These showers will continue to decrease through evening. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with decreasing
winds. Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/076 053/082 054/080 052/082 054/083 054/086 057/084
    00/U    02/T    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
LVM 038/075 047/080 048/078 047/082 049/083 050/083 052/080
    00/U    12/T    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T
HDN 041/075 050/086 054/081 052/082 054/085 055/088 058/086
    00/U    02/T    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 045/073 052/084 057/078 053/081 056/083 057/088 060/088
    20/U    02/T    30/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 041/074 048/086 055/078 050/080 051/082 054/086 058/088
    10/U    02/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 041/068 046/081 051/075 047/077 048/080 050/082 054/085
    20/B    02/T    31/N    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 038/073 047/082 050/078 048/079 049/080 051/084 054/085
    00/U    02/T    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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