Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 300303
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
903 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

WEAK RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IS ALREADY
GETTING FLATTENED DUE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MADE IT AS FAR
EAST AS GALLATIN AND MEAGHER COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...HAVE SPREAD
EVENING POPS FURTHER NORTH TO COVER WHEATLAND COUNTY...AS WELL AS
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPDATED
FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

STABLE AIR MASS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SW MOUNTAINS IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH THAT SETTLED IN OVERNIGHT. IF WE
MANAGE TO GET ANY SUN ON THOSE MOUNTAINS WE MAY SEE SOME
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO
SATURDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

FOR TOMORROW...SHORT WAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRACKS ACROSS
MONTANA SHOULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
IS OKAY THOUGH NOT GREAT...AND THERE IS MORE EFFECTIVE SHEAR THAN
WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE. IF WE DONT CLOUD UP TOO MUCH...AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THOUGH MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY.

SUNDAY LOOKS WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A FEW
DAYS. PROGGS DO NOT SHOW ANY OBVIOUS SHORT WAVE...BUT WITH THE
GROUND MOISTURE WE HAVE SEEN AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WE SHOULD
SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND TRY TO MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. MAYBE NOT AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS SATURDAYS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...COVERING THE
APPROACHING WORK WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERN FLOW ALOFT.

A PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD...WITH
MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY RIDING UP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL INITIATE THE RETURN OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODELS FAVOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT TO AID CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
ARE ALSO SOME INDICATORS FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH INCREASED CAPES
AND SHEAR ON MONDAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS
DEVELOP GOING FORWARD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW SLOWLY PUSHES
EASTWARD. AS EXPECTED THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY WITH TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW AS WE PROCEED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND GENERAL
COOLING TREND AS WELL. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE IN FORM OF
CLOSED LOW OR BROAD OPEN WAVE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND
UNDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING NEAR K3HT THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS EAST WINDS DECREASE IN THIS AREA.
FURTHER WEST...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN CENTRAL
MT MAY IMPACT KLVM-K3HT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOUNTAINS MAY BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. VFR WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN INCREASED
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY MIDDAY IN THE WEST
AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL MVFR...
HAIL AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TOMORROW. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/075 052/081 056/083 054/077 051/072 051/072 052/071
    04/T    33/T    23/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 046/072 051/078 052/077 049/072 046/067 044/070 045/066
    24/T    43/T    35/T    45/T    44/T    33/T    44/T
HDN 046/079 051/084 054/086 054/079 052/074 050/076 052/074
    03/T    33/T    25/T    44/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 044/076 052/081 057/085 058/078 055/073 052/074 053/074
    01/B    52/T    24/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    44/T
4BQ 043/075 052/080 056/085 057/078 055/073 052/074 054/073
    01/B    32/T    22/T    33/T    44/T    33/T    34/T
BHK 039/067 045/076 052/083 054/076 052/073 049/073 050/072
    01/N    51/B    22/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    34/T
SHR 042/075 049/078 052/081 052/075 048/070 047/072 049/070
    11/B    33/T    23/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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