Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 171255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
855 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. COLD
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER
THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. 12Z TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AT MOST PRIMARY
OBSERVATION SITES...WITH POCKETS OF MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE COLDER
RURAL VALLEYS.

SOME LLVL MARINE MOISTURE IS LURKING ALONG AND EAST OF THE NJ AND
DELMARVA COAST...AND AS MEAN SFC-850 MB STAY FROM THE SE...SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE COULD SNEAK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND
SCHUYLKILL CTY LATER TODAY AS SOME SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU.

MAXES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH BLENDS NICELY TO
THE L-M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE COULD BECOME THICKER AND BUILD A CEILING/BROKEN SKY OVER
THE SE EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THE FLOW FROM THE SE BACKS AND SLACKENS
AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP SHOP OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...THE
MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OUT OF THE SE AND POOL UP OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CLEARING OVER THE AREAS IN THE
GROWING SEASON. MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN PLACES NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE SE AGAIN. CLOUDS COULD BLOW THIS UP AND KEEP IT SLIGHTLY
MILDER. HOWEVER...MESO PATTERN IS CERTAINLY ONE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO BE CUT OFF AND SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TONIGHT...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING. DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE FREEZING.

THE RIDGE THEN STAYS IN PLACE AND HELPS TO PUSH A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM
STORM WILL ALSO BE DEFLECTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SLIDES EAST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE MIGHTY MISS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN
PATTERN IS AVG AT BEST THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A MAINLY DRY FCST SUN-
MON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS
ASSOCD WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF
THE PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN-TIER CONUS ALONG WITH A
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL BUT RATHER EXPLICIT NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT IN THE
500MB FLOW BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST.

THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LW PATTERN
IS FCST TO REAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS/SPRING CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVG 500MB
RIDGING SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY DELAY THE
HEIGHT RISES IN THE EAST AND SEND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
MID-ATLC AROUND DAY 8.

OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NOW APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE FRI NGT
SATURDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY TIME-FRAMES. SO MOST OF THE EASTER
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR
STRATOCU POSS SLIDING IN FROM THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE FRI.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO
8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING... BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR
STRATOCU MAY SNEAK IN FROM THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW ON FRI WITH LOW PROB OF
RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS SE PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
/MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR



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