Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 290557
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
157 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY THICK OVER THE NORTH...BUT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN TUE MORNING...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM ONLY TRICKLES OF MVFR ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR. CURRENTLY
ONLY THV AND SEG ARE MVFR WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4 OR MORE
AT LNS...MDT...IPT AND JST. AS THESE SITES ARE STILL FAIRLY
DRY...EVEN CONSIDERING CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...ANY
FOG/LOW STRATOCU WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP.
 THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE AT UNV...AOO AND
BFD. HERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 3 OR LESS AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL. LIKEWISE WINDS ARE CALM AND SKIES
ARE CLEARING. SO EXPECT MVFR PATCHY FOG/MIST TO BEGIN TO FORM
BETWEEN 07Z TO 09Z AND INCREASE TO IFR BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z. MDT
AND LNS AND IPT SHOULD GO MVFR WITH IPT HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF
IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU



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