Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 282141
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
541 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will sag slowly south tonight and Monday
morning. High pressure will bring another period of warmer than
normal and mainly dry weather for Monday into Wednesday. A
cold front will move across the commonwealth Wednesday followed
by a refreshingly cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Convection erupting early this evening along axis of deep
moisture/instability across northwest Pa. Moderate CAPEs per SPC
mesoanalysis and weak shear suggest storms will be of the pulse
variety this evening, with little risk of organized svr weather.
However, PWATs arnd 2 inches indicate some potential of localized
flooding from slow moving storms. HRRR, as well as earlier CAMS,
all continue to support the idea of the highest POPS across the
northwest counties this evening, with little chance of any rain
across the se counties.

Guidance indicates dwindling convection will accompany weak cold
front, as it pushes south across the state late tonight. Will keep
the overnight fcst dry across the se counties for now, but may
need to introduce at least a slight chance late tonight given the
anomalous PWATs preceding the front.

Lows generally in the 60s will average some 10-15 deg above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The weak cold front will stall along or just south of the Mason/Dixon
Line Monday afternoon providing the low level convergence to help
focus what will be mainly scattered convection during the
afternoon over southern PA.

High temps Monday will vary from near 80 across the NW Mountains
to around 90 in the southern valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from
a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to
a weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result,
above-normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
will transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the
period.

A weakening cold front will push slowly SE through the
Commonwealth tonight and early Monday Sunday night into Monday
morning accompanied by isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms. The frontal boundary is expected to wash
out near or just south of the Mason/Dixon line during the day
Monday. Abundant low-level moisture, mesoscale convergence and
some orographic lift/heating via the east to NE low level flow
regime across the mountains of SW PA will focus the best chance
for showers and scattered thunderstorms there Monday afternoon.

Monday night through Wed morning looks to be dry with generally
light wind and just the possibility of patchy early morning valley
fog.

Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front
pushing SE across the area Wednesday afternoon or early Thursday,
with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms.

This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next
week. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s Thursday into the
weekend over the northern and western higher terrain, with low
to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough amplifies from central
Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Several bands of showers and storms as of 530 PM. Expect
activity to continue into the mid evening hours. 21Z TAFS
adjusted for this.

Earlier discussion below.

Light winds and high boundary layer moisture could result in some
low ceilings and fog after midnight into early Monday morning.

Outlook...

Tue...Patchy AM fog, then VFR.

Wed...Sct PM TS impacts possible.

Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...La Corte/Martin



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