Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 150842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
ESPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER


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