Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 222348
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT
WE ARE LIKELY SO SEE UNTIL OCTOBER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH
AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAVE
CLEARED MY SOUTHERN ZONES. A MAINLY CLEAR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH THE COLDEST AIR WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE UNTIL FALL IN
STORE. WITH A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WIND AFTER SUNDOWN WE WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST AND EVEN A FREEZE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER.

LOWS WILL DROP TO THE 33 TO 36 RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY
AREAS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
MANY LOCATIONS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW COOP OBSERVERS
AND MESO OB SITES COME IN AROUND 20F ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MCKEAN...ELK AND POTTER COUNTIES.

THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL TEETER AROUND THE 32F MARK AT SUNRISE
SATURDAY...BUT MOST OF THE POPULATION THERE SHOULD SEE LOWS OF
33 OR 34F WITH FROST ALMOST A CERTAINTY.

THESE COLD TEMPS WILL APPROACH OR DROP BELOW RECORD LOWS IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO JUST ESCAPE A RECORD LOW BY
1-3 DEG WOULD BE THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE A LIGHT NW BREEZE
COULD PERSIST UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS THERE WILL BE IN
THE U30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME RURAL COLD SPOTS COULD SEE PATCHY
FROST WITH A SAT MORNING MIN OF 35 OR 36 DEG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SAT MORNING WILL DRIFT SE TO
THE DELMARVA COAST BY SAT EVENING. VERY LOW PWAT AIR OF ONLY
AROUND 0.25 INCH AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT WIND.

MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO AROUND 70F IN THE SOUTH WILL
STILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST LATE SAT NIGHT
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AGAIN SAT
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW PLACES IN NRN
PENN COULD SEE A PATCHY LIGHT FROST TWD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT
NOTHING CLOSE TO WHAT/S IN STORE FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER A COOL START...SUNDAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A ROBUST WARM-
UP THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SIGNALS THIS
WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STILL IN THE 40S. HARD TO SEE MUCH
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF PA...IN
AREA OF BETTER WARM ADVECTION.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE
60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY.

AT THE SAME TIME...500 MB HEIGHTS COME UP...AS THE UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS.

WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30KTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THRU 03Z WITH LGT
AND VRBL WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST.

OUTLOOK...

MON-WED...VFR WITH ISOLD/LOW RISK OF TSTM IMPACTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ019-024>028-033-034-045-046-049>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



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