Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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451
FXUS61 KCTP 022258
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
658 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ROLLING UP THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ALONG
AN OLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW SLOWLY DEEPENING OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA THIS EVENING IS
THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HOMOGENEOUS SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE LAURELS THROUGH MID EVENING AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING. CAMS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE LOWER SUSQ...PERHAPS A DRENCHING INCH IN SPOTS.

LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY EXPECTED CENTRAL AND NORTH AS 650 MB CAP IN
PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN/STORMS INTO THE SE THIRD TO HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST WILL BE IN THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE
MODEL QPF IS IN THE 0.5 TO 1 INCH RANGE. DESPITE OUR VERY RECENT
WET SPELL..THIS SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY WORRIES FOR FLOODING. POPS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LITTLE OR NIL NW OF UNV-IPT. THE MAIN FORCING
FROM THE WAVE WILL BE PAST US BY SUNRISE TUES. HOWEVER...PRESSURE
WILL LOWER OVER THE ALLEGHENIES DURING THE DAY AS HEATING AND
CONVECTION WILL RESULT. SOME SCT SHRA WILL POP OVER THE HIGHER
HILLS AFTER MORNING MIXING LIFTS THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE POPS LOWER
IN THE E AND HIGHER IN THE W. TEMPS TUES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND THUS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL PULL OUT LATE TUE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT.

I DID LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT...AND DID NOT GO ANY
HIGHER WITH POPS...GIVEN THAT A WEAK HIGH TRYS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR WED INTO SUN. I JUST MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND A DEEP UPPER LVL
LOW OVER THE TN VLY ON THU. THU LOOKS TO BE A WET DAY.
THINK MUCH OF WED WILL STILL BE MAINLY DRY. THIS DEEP
UPPER LVL LOW WAS HINTED AT BY SOME MODEL RUNS LAST WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SAT...AS
THE UPPER LVL LOW DROPS SE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOWER CHC
OF RAIN ON FRIDAY INTO SAT.

ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SE FROM EASTERN CANADA.

A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW.

A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR BY TUE...BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY TO BE DRY.

OVERALL A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN AS WE START OFF MAY HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM FRONT BRIEFLY LIFTED INTO CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN...BRINGING A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDS. HOWEVER...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BACK SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE S APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN/LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PA
TONIGHT. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
BEST /LIKELY/ CHC OF IFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE
STATE INCLUDING KMDT/KLNS. HOWEVER...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NE FLOW
ASCENDING THE MTNS COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE IFR CIGS FURTHER
NORTH OVERNIGHT.

THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS SE PA ARND NOON
TUESDAY...AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MIXING COULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTN. A RETURN TO VFR CONDS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR
ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THRU EVENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. AFTN SHRA POSS...MAINLY E.

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD



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