Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 281530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
830 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Issued at 825 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Winds on the increase across the wind prone areas of southeast
Wyoming already this morning. Getting wind gusts to 40MPH at
Bordeaux and Chugwater. Bordeaux peaked out at 48 MPH gust about
an hour ago. This with GFS Craig to Casper height gradients of
only 11/34 mtrs. These gradients are forecast to ramp up quickly
later today, up to 48 mtrs by 21Z. Went ahead and upgraded the
high wind watches to warnings. Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Snow has pretty much ended across the CWA early this morning and
only some snow showers are now expected over the higher mtns
mainly tonight through Wednesday night in a favorably moist
northwesterly upper flow. Attention instead will turn to winds as
a period of strong winds look possible in the wind-prone areas of
southeast Wyoming this evening through the day Weds. 7H winds come
up to about 50kts from central Carbon county into western laramie
county this evening with some downward omega. Wind threat for this
evening looks marginal and high clouds may limit mixing so for now
have opted to keep the watch going...adding the Arlington area.
Highest speeds progged for only a relatively short time Weds
morning then winds ease a bit during the day. Lighter winds then
expected Weds night through Thursday. Temperatures on the cool
side today through Wednesday...a bit below average...then they
notch up a bit for Thursday as a flattening upper ridge slips east
towards the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

A shortwave moving eastward across the northern Rockies and plains
on Thursday night will keep breezy to windy conditions over
southeast Wyoming through Friday morning. Then, expect mostly dry,
very warm, and breezy to windy conditions to continue through the
weekend within anticyclonic flow. High Winds are possible Sunday
night through Monday morning in the wind prone areas as a stronger
upper shortwave trough slides along the US/Canadian border and
deepens the leeside pressure trough. Then a cold front progged to
move east across the CWA early Sunday morning may spread windy
conditions to the eastern plains in the post frontal environment
with afternoon mixing. Could see light snow showers develop with
frontal passage as well, but very little if any accumulation is
expected since we will remain in an overall dry zonal pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 511 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

The main aviation concern for today will be gusty west to
northwest winds at the terminals. Looking at periodic gusts 30 to
40 kts across southeast Wyoming, with 20 to 30 kts in Nebraska.
After a brief lull around sunset, many locations will likely see
gusty winds continue through tonight.


Issued at 249 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Fire weather concerns will remain low for the rest of the week
with cool temperatures and slowly melting snow cover over many
areas. There will be periodic strong and gusty winds around the
southeast Wyoming mtns.


WY...High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST Wednesday
     for WYZ106-110-116-117.



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