Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 072358
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
658 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.AVIATION...

Trends in MVFR stratocu remain the primary concern in the forecast
tonight through Thursday. Renewed activation of Lake Michigan
combined with reduced nocturnal boundary layer mixing will help the
clouds move back into SE Michigan in patches mid to late evening and
then increase coverage overnight. Except for a short period during
the evening, westerly wind will continue to gust 20-25 knots through
the period. Best timing for MVFR snow showers remains during
Thursday afternoon as lake effect combines with the next front
approaching the region.

FOR DTW... Late afternoon/early evening observations indicate MVFR
ceiling is filling back in over Lower Michigan. Expect some coverage
to brush the DTW area during the evening while more persistent
coverage remains on track for overnight through Thursday. Flurries
Thursday morning transitioning to MVFR snow showers remains on
track. At this point, organization for accumulation looks better
north of DTW through the day.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight. High Thursday.

* High for snow as precipitation type.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

DISCUSSION...

The stacked upper level low currently over Ontario, will continue to
trek off to the northeast and into Quebec by Thursday.  This will
keep the area in an active pattern through the end of the week with
snow showers possible Thursday into Friday before better potential
for snow moves in late in the upcoming weekend.

The rest of the day today will remain dry with winds out of the
southwest slowly veering to the west through Thursday night. Clouds
diminished this morning leading to partly sunny skies which will
continue into the overnight hours before clouds thicken up with
another boundary coming across tomorrow. Gusty winds will also
continue into tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens. With the
area positioned in the trough and westerly winds in place on
Thursday, some lake effect bands could possibly reach into Southeast
Michigan during the day. Better chances for snow, however, will
remain over on the west side of the state. At this point, only
expecting light accumulations of snow with the flurries and light
snow showers over Southeast Michigan as colder air encompasses the
region.

Things start to calm down on Friday as the pressure gradient
slackens and any snow shower activity starts to lessen.  By Friday
night, ridging moving in will bring some drier conditions back for a
brief period.  As far as temperatures, expect cold temperatures to
continue into the weekend as 850 mb temps stay in the -10C to -15C
range.

Westerly winds throughout Saturday morning and afternoon will bring
the slight chance to see lake effect flurries, with minimal
accumulations expected. The main story for the extended forecast
continues to be the developing low pressure system over the Central
Plains, expected to push into the Great Lakes region Sunday into
Monday. Accumulating snow is likely, with the big question being
timing of the snow and how much we`ll see. Latest 12Z ECMWF model
run has some considerable differences from its 00Z suite. Placement
of low pressure is now tracking further north, clipping SE MI
throughout Monday. Additionally, new ECMWF exhibits a stronger and
strengthening low Sunday into Monday. As a result, QPF fields are
significantly higher, bringing the bulk of the precipitation Sunday
night into Monday morning. GFS and GEM 12Z suites bring the bulk of
the snow Saturday night into Sunday. ECMWF also exhibits significant
differences in the temperature field with respect to height. The
intensification and placement of the low in the ECMWF allows
temperatures to straddle the 0 C isotherm for our southern counties
Monday morning, which would influence precipitation type.

Main message at this point, expect snow as late as Saturday
night, with the chance continuing as far out into Monday. However,
with the lack of model convergence, especially with the new 12Z
ECMWF model suite, exact timing and accurate snowfall estimates
cannot be made at this time. With the low moving out late Monday,
temperatures will not break the freezing mark for daytime highs,
and will in fact cool down even further, with temperatures
projected to sit in the lower 20s for a high on Wednesday.

MARINE...

Gusts to low end gales will ease this evening allowing the gale
warning to expire on schedule. However...gusty southwest winds will
continue to gust to near-gales through the day Thursday. A cold
front will track from northern Lake Huron Thursday afternoon to Lake
Erie Thursday night. Frontal passage will be accompanied by a wind
shift to the northwest in addition to an increase in lake effect
snow squalls. Building high pressure south of the Great Lakes will
allow moderate winds to take hold for the end of the week before the
arrival of the next low Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening FOR LHZ363-421-441-462.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday FOR LHZ422-442-443.

Lake St Clair...NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SS/AM
MARINE.......JVC


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.



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