Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 310356
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1156 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016


.AVIATION...

Showers/embedded thunder have become more numerous north of KPTK
late this evening within deformation axis of shortwave that is
moving through the area. This activity will most likely affect
KMBS/KFNT overnight. Activity further south will remain isolated as
mid level dry slot overspreads far southern Michigan. Will maintain
some fog overnight given degree of moisture left over from recent
rain. Another weak shortwave digs into area behind the current
system, so additional sct shras/tsras will be possible...most likely
focus north before deformation fades and then sinking south during
afternoon/early evening as trough settles through area.

For DTW...While terminals missed out of convection today, coverage
was much more extensive. Do not expect quite a repeat on Sunday, but
PROB30 group is probably warranted as surface trough settles into
area and helps focus activity. Otherwise, will maintain light fog
overnight given degree of low level moisture and light winds. After
mid level dry slot leads to some additional clearing, radiation fog
should become more likely.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low for ceilings aob 5kft overnight.

* Low for tstorms impacting KDTW Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

Persistent low amplitude longwave trough remains over the western
Great Lakes and looks to stay that way until it releases eastward
Sunday and Sunday night. A train of shortwaves has tracked through
the flow across southern Michigan over the past couple days and has
resulted in showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, each
aided by a very moisture rich environment in a deformation region
spread across lower Michigan. Todays activity has weakened
significantly over the last couple hours but deformation and
isentropic ascent remain strong enough to keep showers going along
and north of M-59. Earlier activity has produced a notable change in
the forecast for this evening and overnight in the form of a strong
subsidence region generally along and south of I-94 (which happens
to be one of the areas hardest hit with heavy rainfall and flash
flooding). This shows up well on the visible satellite with the
cloud field quickly eroding. This region had been advertised by most
models to be favored for the next round of thunderstorms this
evening as the next wave ejects out of the base of the trough, but
now looks to be stable aloft and looks like the jet streak is aiming
a bit further south as well. Cannot rule anything out with this
airmass we are dealing with though. A lack of forcing has not
prevented thunderstorm development thus far and don`t see it
shutting us down tonight. Have dropped the likely pops down to
chance expecting the most widespread activity to stay south of the
state line along the differently heating boundary and region of best
jet forcing. Will carry likely pops for ongoing convection along I-
69 northward and a blanket chance for the rest of the night for
renewed nocturnal activity across the area. With the wealth of
moisture in the column (PWATs over 1.5 inches) and slow storm
motions, the threat of heavy rainfall will continue tonight. Did
notice one storm actually put out an outflow boundary this afternoon
too, so cannot rule out a wind gust to around 30 mph.

The longwave trough will eject eastward Sunday and Sunday night
which will finally bring some building height back into the region
on Monday. Lingering mid level cool pool and the backside of the
deformation axis will linger through most of the day which may be
enough to pop a few more showers before conditions begin to improve.
Will hold onto a chance pop Sunday before tapering off pops all
together overnight.

TUESDAY through SATURDAY: Basic scenario shows building high
pressure over the southern U.S. with an upper level disturbance
centered over northern Manitoba pushing northeast. This combination
of systems will effectively combine to send several waves of low
pressure through SE Michigan. Chances of showers and thunderstorms
will develop late Tuesday and persist through the workweek...as weak
surface lows are pulsed up. High temperatures will be on an upward
trend through the week hitting the upper 80`s by the end of the
workweek. Dew point temperatures also look high...anticipate another
round of hot and muggy.

MARINE...

Small craft advisories remain in effect as persistent moderate to
fresh onshore flow builds significant wave heights into the 3 to 5
foot range this evening. Winds and waves will then gradually
diminish late tonight through Sunday being replaced by a light to
moderate breeze through midweek. Thunderstorms are possible over the
waters today...Sunday...and again on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY...

Pockets of heavy rain producing a half to quarter of an inch per
hour will be possible for the remainder of the evening. Lesser
coverage of storms is anticipated on Sunday. Slow-moving storms
containing heavy rain will still be possible, but will largely be
confined to the southern half of the forecast area during peak
heating.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...DRK/DE
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.



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