Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 062349

650 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)

An episode of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas and much of western
Missouri. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and torrential rainfall
are all possible with these storms. Rainfall rates combined with
moist soil conditions will lead to a flash flood risk in any areas
that experiences heavy rain.

A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for areas along and south of a
line from St. Joseph to Kirksville.

Short term models suggest that the severe risk could move into
southwest and central Missouri by 11pm tonight, with residual showers
lingering over northern Missouri into Tuesday morning.

For the rest of Tuesday, it`s difficult to determine where the effective
surface front will be located due to convective outflow, cloud cover,
and rain contamination. Therefore will will continue the higher POPS
over west central and central Missouri through Tuesday afternoon, with
much lower POPS over northern Missouri. This forecast is based on a
frontal position across the Ozarks.

Highs on Tuesday may only reach the middle 70s as a cooler northern
Plains airmass spreads into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)

Regarding Tuesday night, it appears as though the bulk of the heavy
rain and flooding will occur over Oklahoma as a shortwave trough
moves in from the southwest. This rainfall will eventually spread
into central and southern Missouri Wednesday morning.

Therefore Tuesday night through Wednesday, we will focus the higher
rainfall probabilities across west central and central Missouri.

Models suggest the surface front will remain over southern Missouri
through Wednesday night, focusing the bulk of the precipitation south
of I-70. However, by Thursday and Thursday night, this front is
expected to track back to the north, bringing additional rainfall to
northern Missouri.

As we progress toward the weekend, the summertime high is expected to
build across the nation`s mid section, bringing hot and dry weather
to northern and western Missouri. Look for temperatures to warm into
the 80s and possibly the lower 90s by Friday and Saturday afternoons.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the Kansas City area airports will need
to monitor radar trends this evening. Severe thunderstorms impacted
the area late this afternoon, and were exiting to the southeast.
However, lingering rainfall and low ceilings will continue through
much of the evening and overnight period.

Due to a passing cold front, surface winds will shift to the
northeast, and become gusty at times during the day Tuesday.

Pilots flying in Tuesday morning can expect low ceilings to improve
to VFR by around daybreak or shortly after.

Safe Travels.


KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-



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