Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 142330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Tuesday night):

A couple shots of light precipitation through the short term with
only minor hazards are expected. The first of those will come
tonight. Although temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon
where the sun has emerged, temperatures are again expected to drop
into the mid 20s and lower 30s tonight. Models are depicting a fast
moving and compact shortwave which will bring the chance for
precipitation to he northwestern part of the CWA after midnight.
This is supported by the HRRR/RAP/NAM/and EC which show the
shortwave moving into the area and weakening as it does. Soundings
indicate the possibility for light freezing rain or snow.
Precipitation should come to an end by mid-morning tomorrow.
Tomorrow afternoon the sun should again emerge and with modest
mixing and height rises temperatures should rise into the mid 40s to
mid 50s. Another quick moving system will dig from the northern
Plains into the Midwest Monday night. A associated surface low is
progged to remain north and east of the area moving from northern
Iowa into central Illinois Monday night into Tuesday morning. This
would keep the local area on the warm side of the system with most
areas remaining above freezing overnight Monday. However, despite
most areas remaining above freezing there is enough lift across the
northeastern CWA, in the vicinity of the low, for there to be
saturation in the snow growth zone. Consequently, have a rain/snow
mention for the northeastern CWA Monday night/Tuesday morning where
minimal snow accumulations may be possible. However, any frozen
precipitation that does happen to fall will have a short residence
time as temperatures on Tuesday rise into the lower 40s to mid 50s
thanks to continued height rises.

Extended Term (Wednesday - Sunday):

Wednesday we begin to see a major pattern shift from the deep upper
level troughing over the eastern CONUS and the highly amplified
ridging across the western CONUS that has prevail since late last
week. The upper level ridge across the western CONUS will begin to
shift eastward on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid
40s to near 60. Thursday and Friday the region will move directly
under the influence of the upper ridge with WAA at the surface.
Expect highs on both days to be well above normal with most
locations in the 60s Friday with the southwestern CWA and KC Metro
perhaps even reaching 70! The next chance for precipitation will
come on Saturday as a shortwave trough flattens out the upper trough
and pushes into the region. Temperatures will be more than warm
enough to support rain as highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s are
expected. A cold front is progged to move through the area Saturday
night however, with no cold air evident behind the front
temperatures will still remain above normal in the 50s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Cloud deck
will gradually rise this evening as earlier system exits the region
and the next wave begins to impact the region. Mid-lev deck will
increase in coverage tonight as this next system nears the area.
Precip looks to stay north of the terminals with KSTJ looking to be
near the precip edge. Winds will generally be light through the
period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...PMM


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