Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 291402

902 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

Issued at 901 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Models are depicting a band of deformation/frontogenesis developing
behind this morning`s decaying MCS, mainly focused close to the I-35
corridor from Wichita into the KC area. Already seeing renewed
convection developing along this corridor, and with models indicating
this frontogenetical forcing will persist or even intensify across
this same corridor into early afternoon, believe there could be a
band of rain and embedded thunder continuing to develop into the KC
area and points to the southwest over the next several hours.
Rainfall amounts shouldn`t be particularly heavy given meager
instability, but wouldn`t be surprised to see several amounts over a
half inch and localized amounts up to 1 inch across these areas through
the afternoon. This will also keep temperatures suppressed over these
areas so made changes to today`s high temperatures keeping them in
the lower 70s.


Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

For this morning, showers and storms developing along the low-level
jet axis in eastern KS will continue to translate eastward; however,
storms are expected to weaken and begin to dissipate as they move
off the LLJ and into an area of lower elevated instability. These
storms may produce up to a quarter inch of precipitation along the
CWA border, but rainfall amounts will decrease significantly to the

A lull in precipitation is possible from late morning through the
early afternoon hours after morning convection dissipates; then
storm chances will increase during the afternoon and evening hours
as an upper trough edges into the region and fuels widespread but
scattered precipitation. Adequate instability for at least some
convective activity is expected which will locally enhance rainfall
totals, but was not confident enough in widespread moderate-heavy
rainfall amounts for the issuance of any kind of flood watch. Strong
to severe storms are also fairly unlikely due to deep-layer shear
values maxing out around 20-25 kts, but a briefly robust pulsy storm
is possible if periods of clearing allow instability to grow to the
RAP`s advertised 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. High temperatures
will also depend on the degree of clearing that can occur this AM
before storms redevelop, but could reach the low 80s with a few
hours of sunshine.

The surface cold front associated with a second upper trough will
slide through the region late tonight, pushing thunderstorm activity
out of the region by Saturday morning and allowing cooler, drier
conditions to build in for the remainder of the weekend. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be a touch below normal in the mid 60s to
lower 70s, and lows should settle into the 50s both nights.

A return to southerly flow and warmer temperatures will come on
Monday as surface high pressure exits to the southeast, but dry
weather is still expected as upper level ridging builds across the
central Plains. A few thunderstorms will become possible Wednesday
night or Thursday as the upper ridge begins to flatten, but chances
are generally around or less than 30 percent for the end of the work


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to spread east this
morning, and will be accompanied by scattered to broken IFR ceilings
through at least 13z, before the low clouds begin to dissipate. Light
showers may linger into early afternoon, then a break in rainfall is
possible for the afternoon through early evening hours with VFR cigs
expected. A cold front will sweep through the region between 03z-06z,
veering winds sharply to the northwest and bringing a possible brief
round of showers and thunderstorms prior to 12z Saturday morning.




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