Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 260109

709 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 659 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Strong southerly winds will taper off initially, though will remain
steady with gusts up to 20-25kts through 07Z. Ceiling heights will
begin to lower through the evening hours ahead of an approaching cold
front. Expected to remain VFR until 19Z Friday at which point MVFR
ceilings will nose in along the frontal boundary. Timing of frontal
passage will be near 00Z, so have excluded the NW wind shift from the
forecast, with the exception of KSTJ. Greatest chances of
precipitation will commence shortly after the cold front moves
through the terminals area.

Surface winds over Eastern Kansas have recently dropped off
significantly. Should surface winds at the KC terminals follow suit
during the evening hours, wind shear values in the 35-40kt range are
possible as 1500ft winds are within the 50kt range. Will monitor
surface winds and amend forecast if necessary.




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