Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230446
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated to widely scattered storms have developed along several
preexisting outflow/differential heating boundaries in portions of
southwest Nebraska and much of Kansas, and will drift and develop to
the northeast over the next several hours. Earlier convection that
tried to develop into the KC metro immediately flattened, possibly
indicating subsidence under the upper high and/or some inversion
where cloud cover has been persistent this morning through the early
afternoon. These two factors may prevent much southeastward
development of storms` current location, although partial heating
over the next few hours and outflow boundary interaction could allow
storms to sneak as far south as I-70 later this evening.

Additional storms may develop along the northern edge of the low-
level jet tonight, lifting northeast across the northern half of the
CWA from late evening through the early morning hours. Strong to
severe storms are not anticipated due to very weak upper level flow,
but some briefly gusty winds are possible with stronger storms. The
LLJ should push any residual boundaries north of the CWA by tomorrow
morning, ending precipitation chances shortly after sunrise.

Storm chances will be low for Saturday with the CWA remaining well
into the warm sector, and the lack of cloud cover as well as a small
increase in 850 temperatures and slightly deeper mixing should get
temperatures well into the mid to even upper 90s for Saturday. Have
kept the heat advisory extended into Saturday with air temperatures
close to 100 and heat indices in the lower 100s. A cold front will
start to sweep into the central U.S. on Sunday as an upper trough
lifts into the northern Plains, further enhancing mixing across the
CWA and dropping dewpoints during the afternoon. 850 hPa temps
should be comparable if not a degree or two cooler on Sunday, and
will combine with lower afternoon dewpoints to keep heat indices in
the 98-102 range, so have opted not to extend the heat advisory into
Sunday at this time.

Precipitation chances will start to increase by the end of the
weekend as the upper trough edges closer to the CWA, possibly
allowing for some nocturnal thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday
morning and again Monday night into Tuesday morning. High temps for
Monday and Tuesday will remain in the 90s south of the surface
front; then, storm chances will become more widespread Tuesday
through Wednesday as the cold front pushes through the region, and
temperatures will decrease into the 80s by Wednesday and Thursday
behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Challenging aviation fcst going forward this evening as latest fcst
models continue to suggest developing convection in the predawn hrs.
Current line of thinking is that convection will be possible at all
terminals between 10-13z as secondary frontal feature moves through
the area. For now...have included a VCTS mention at all sites to
account for this. After daybreak...any convection should quickly exit
to th east and northeast with dry conditions expected through the
duration of the fcst period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...32






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