Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 282032
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
332 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 332 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Short range (Today through Tomorrow):

The upper level trough that has been our weather maker this week is
evident on water vapor imagery centered near Sioux Falls. This
trough is expected to move into the western Great Lakes by tonight.
Afternoon/early evening instability showers and thunderstorms,
mainly across northern Missouri will be possible as this upper trough
makes its progress through the region. Instability this afternoon
across northern Missouri is around 1000J/kg however the better shear
is north and east of the CWA. Consequently, isolated to widely
scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and early evening
but with a weakening upper trough and a loss of instability near
sunset, storms will diminish. Dry conditions are then expected
tonight through the day on Sunday. Height rises during the day
tomorrow will help temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s.

Medium range: (Sunday night through Saturday):

This period continues to look unsettled as the upper level pattern
resets itself and reverts back to a similar synoptic pattern as
last week. The main feature of interest will be an upper level
trough over the southwestern CONUS. Several shortwaves ejecting
out from the upper trough are progged to move through the area
through Tuesday. This will allow for scattered thunderstorm chances
everyday in the period. Temperatures will generally range in the
upper 70s to lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday night, an upper
level trough moving from the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains and become phased with the southwestern CONUS as in moves
into the central and southern Plains. This will force a cold front
through the area in Wednesday with a more organized round of
thunderstorms possible. The cold front will move through the area by
Thursday and high pressure will build in behind the departing system
drying out conditions. High pressure will remain in control through
Friday. Highs Thursday and Friday will be a very comfortable low to
mid 70s. Towards the end of next week the upper level pattern
becomes more amplified with ridging over the western CONUS and
troughing over the east. The local area will be under northwest flow
aloft keeping temperatures in the 70s with the potential for storms
again moving into the area by Saturday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VFR cigs will prevail thru the pd with sct-bkn cigs btn 3-4kft this
afternoon. A isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible at STJ
and MCI this afternoon however chances are too low for inclusion in
the TAF at this time. Cigs will further lift to around 5kft and sct
out late this afternoon before giving way to mid- lvl clouds tonight.
Winds will be out of the WSW this afternoon at 10-15kts before dmshg
to 5-10kts this evening.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73



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