Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251051
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
551 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

The upper level ridging and high pressure over our area will slowly
start to break down today as a pronounced shortwave trough exits the
Rockies.  This E-NE push from the shortwave finally force the N-S
oriented cold front over the plains our way. A large area of
isentropic ascent over central KS has created a wide area of
precipitation as warmer air aloft overrides the cooler air on the
backside of the surface cold front located just west of Missouri
now.  The cold front will finally move into the area this afternoon,
but will be weakening as it does so with the upper level shortwave
moving more NE and the surface low well displaced north of the Great
Lakes.  This weakening of isentropic ascent and low level
convergence bring some uncertainty to the overall amount of
precipitation coverage that makes its way into NW Missouri this
afternoon. With that said, there will be enough surface heating
this afternoon to fire off some diurnal showers and possible
isolated storms along the front and a resurgence of elevated
showers and storms as the sunsets. Overall PoPs will remain
greater than 50% for most of NW Missouri going into Tuesday
morning. The added cloud coverage and weakening southerly winds
will help temperatures drop slightly over the region with today
being the last time we see greater than 80 degrees in for a while.
The boundary will move slightly east over top of the CWA by
Tuesday morning with areas of scattered elevated showers and non-
severe storms ongoing through most the day Tuesday. The boundary
becomes almost stationary as it moves through the region, but the
lack of true forcing makes any significant flooding unlikely and a
wide swath of .25-.5" over out western CWA likely with isolated
values near 1" in NW Missouri. Temps Tuesday will drop down with
cloudy skies, a colder airmass, and showers throughout the day
with highs topping out int he 70s behind the front and 80s over
central Missouri.

High pressure will build into the area quickly Wednesday pushing the
stationary boundary into our southern CWA where a few showers are
possible early in the day Wednesday.  Cloudy conditions and a shot
of cooler air will keep temperatures over the CWA more towards
normal in the lower 70s.  Winds will shift to the NE and accompany a
shot of cooler air in the lower levels Wednesday night dropping
temperatures into the upper 40s for lows Thursday night. Conditions
will remain fairly persistent through the beginning of the weekend
with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the lower 50s with some
isolated upper 40s.  A shortwave will push through the northern
plains Friday night allowing a backdoor cold front to push into our
region Saturday morning which may drop our temperatures into the
coldest of the season with lows in the mid 40s.  A cut off low over
the SW US will finally eject into the plains on Sunday helping to
enhance a weak N-S oriented boundary over the plains.  There is some
uncertainty to where a low develops along this feature which will
have an impact on how much precipitation we really get Sunday.  The
ECMWF has the lower pressure further south bringing in a cold front
into the area Sunday afternoon, but GFS keeps things slightly west.
With this uncertainty PoPs have remained low for this event.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

An approaching cold front currently over central Kansas will
slowly make its way into the area during this period. Ahead of
this boundary winds will be out the S-SE around 5-10kts with a
chance of an isolated shower popping up in the afternoon near the
northern terminals, but with uncertainty in where these will form
up no mention of them is in the TAFs except for a low cloud deck
at 5000ft. The main band of showers and isolated thunderstorms
will approach from the west near sunset with a wind shift to the
N-NE as the boundary passes through. There doesn`t appear to be
enough of a focus for these storms to add predominant thunder so
showers and VCTS have been added to the stations to show the
scattered nature of this precipitation. The thunder threat will
diminish towards sunrise with some MVFR ceilings and rain moving
over STJ at the end of the period. These ceilings will eventually
make it to the rest of the TAF locations after the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Barham



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