Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241740

1140 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Issued at 229 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Now: As of early this morning, the last of the precipitation had
shifted into northeast and east central Missouri. Cold air advection
sufficiently cooled the lower atmosphere to allow the precipitation
on the backside to changeover to light snow. With precipitation
rates lowering with time, do not anticipate any issues with the
remaining couple hours of light snow activity out east.

Today/Tonight: For the remainder of today and tonight, colder air
will continue to work its way into the region. Upstream observations
show a steady stream of stratus moving into the area, and model
cross sections suggest the low clouds will remain over the CWA
through much of the daylight hours. With the continued cold air
advection and clouds, high temperatures will struggle to reach the
middle 30s to middle 40s today. In addition, northwest winds will
continue to be gusty, with speeds in excess of 25 mph common, making
for a relatively raw day. As the upper low departs and drier air
advects in, cloud cover should gradually thin and clear from west to
east by late this afternoon or early evening. This will setup a
decent radiational cooling environment, and lows tonight are
expected to fall into the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: The primary midweek interest is a clipper system
diving southeast from Alberta into eastern Missouri. While models
differ in the exact timing, the overall placement and associated
impacts show good consistency, slightly increasing forecast
confidence. The highest precipitation chances currently exist east
of I-29 and north of I-70, late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Vertical temperature profiles suggest snow as the dominant
precipitation type. Therefore, light snowfall accumulations on the
order of one-half inch or less is forecast for portions of north
central and northeast Missouri. Precipitation should come to an end
by Wednesday afternoon. Subsequent forecasts will refine timing and
snowfall amount details. Temperatures during this period will
continue below normal as the longwave trough axis remains centered
over the region.

Extended: Models during the extended period have come into a little
better consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move
through the region on Thursday. While Thanksgiving day will be
chilly, no precipitation is expected. On Friday, weak upper ridging
across the western two-thirds of the CONUS will yield a large and
fairly aggressive warm air advection regime over much of the Great
Plains, spreading eastward. For instance, H85 temperatures near
Kansas City are expected to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period
from Thursday evening to Friday evening. With surface high pressure
sliding off to the east, southerly winds will return on Friday. The
end result is a quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon
temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s. Precipitation is not
expected during this brief window of warm weather, making for an
optimal time for any outdoor activities. A cold front will move
through Saturday night, knocking temperatures back down to normal to
below normal levels for Sunday into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Stratus deck currently spiraling down from the north will keep
MCI, MKC, and STJ OVC for much of the afternoon, teetering right
on the VFR/MVFR threshold for ceilings. Once this clears from the
west, VFR conditions will prevail at all four TAF sites overnight.
For Tuesday, additional cloud cover is expected in the mid-levels
ahead of the next approaching system.

NW winds will remain gusty this afternoon, lightening up after
sunset tonight. However, W to NW winds will continue to prevail
throughout this TAF period, currently not looking to drop much
below around 10 knots or so.




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