Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
FXUS66 KEKA 242228
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
328 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure is rapidly building into the region this
afternoon. This will continue over the next several days bringing
abundant sunshine and above normal temperatures. Well above
normal temperatures are expected at the coast on Sunday as
offshore flow keeps the marine layer off the coast.
.DISCUSSION...High pressure is building into the region this
afternoon, however the effects at the surface have been a bit
slower than expected. It has taken until midday for the interior
valley clouds to clear out and along the coast stratus is
persisting into the afternoon. Tonight offshore flow is still
expected to pick up. This should clear the clouds away from the
coast. A very dry airmass is settling over the area as well. This
should keep fog/stratus out of the interior valleys, at least for
the most part tonight. This will allow temperatures to cool off
slightly more than last night in some areas. Although frost is
not expected, there may be a few cold spots such as around Ruth
Lake and Hayfork that could get close. At the coast skies should
be clear with the moderate offshore flow tonight, however
confidence is not particularly high on this due to the stratus
coverage over the waters north of Cape Mendocino.
Sunday is still expected to be a warm day. With the moderate
offshore flow overnight skies are expected to be mostly clear.
Highs are still expected to be in the 70s at the coast and near
100 in the inland valleys. Sunday night into Monday offshore flow
weakens and a few clouds may come back along the coast.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than Saturday night.
Inland temperatures look to peak on Monday with the models in good
agreement on the ridge being right overhead. This will persist
into Tuesday as well. The ridge starts to gradually break down on
Wednesday with a trough and some cooler air working its way in.
THis may allow more coastal clouds as well. This trough keeps
getting reinforced on Thursday and Friday. The first chance for
rain looks to be in the north Friday night and Saturday. This
looks to be light, but would keep temperatures much cooler and
snow levels down around 6000 feet in some areas. MKK
.AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds to calm conditions
will continue at KUKI through this weekend. VFR conditions and
moderate to moderate and gusty winds will continue at KACV through
this afternoon. VFR to MVFR conditions and light to moderate winds
will continue at KCEC through the early evening. MVFR to IFR
conditions and light winds to calm conditions will occur at KCEC
and KACV overnight with the lower conditions due to reduced
ceilings and/or visibilities.
.MARINE...An offshore high pressure ridge has strengthened and
increased the pressure gradient across the waters. The winds and
seas have increased slightly today. The winds and seas will
increase tonight primarily across the outer waters. A small craft
advisory will be in effect across the southern outer waters this
evening through early Sunday morning. A small craft advisory will
be in effect across the northern outer waters late this evening
through Sunday afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish on Sunday
as the offshore high pressure ridge weakens. An offshore high
pressure ridge will strengthen early next week increasing the
winds and seas. Small craft advisories are likely across the outer
waters Tuesday and Wednesday due to increasing winds and seas.
.FIRE WEATHER...Offshore flow and a dry airmass moving into the
area will bring elevated fire weather concerns tonight. The
current headline looks to be on track. The dry airmass looks to be
moving into the area bit slower than expected. There has even been
some stratus lingering in the Humboldt interior through Midday.
Still things are expected to dry out this afternoon and tonight as
the offshore flow picks up. The NAM shows a maxima of winds at 850
MB over southern Trinity county and eastern Mendocino county, but
this is mainly expected to impact the terrain above 4000 feet. A
few localized areas may see red flag conditions, but they are not
expected to be widespread enough to issue a warning.
Sunday afternoon there will be widespread single digit rh`s...but
winds will be mainly terrain driven and lighter by then. Sunday
night winds will be much lighter and the offshore flow is very
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM
this evening to 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ470.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PDT Sunday
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