Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 132348
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
348 PM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER. CHANCES FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUE ALONG
THE REDWOOD COAST AS WELL. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY BY EVENING AND SPREAD SE. MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL AFFECT AREAS N OF CAPE MENDOCINO...AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO A BIT LESS THAN WITH FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM. RAINS WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE W COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

AN UPPER TROF WILL DIG OVER THE E PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HERALDING A RETURN TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FRIDAY.
/SEC

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING
MAINLY ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS AS
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS PERSIST TONIGHT. A FEW BRIEF INTERLUDES OF MIST
MAY STILL OCCUR AT KACV AND KCEC THIS EVENING...HOWEVER. A SLIGHT
PUSH OF SHALLOW MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BRING MVFR
OR IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN AND MIST TO KCEC
AND KACV ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE SPECIFICS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS. KUKI WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
HIGH OVERCAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER
THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW 10 FT ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH
WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SWELL...WAVE STEEPNESS WILL REMAIN AVERAGE TONIGHT. SHORT PERIOD
NORTHERLY WAVE GENERATION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WAVES SHOULD BECOME STEEPER AS
THE SWELL HEIGHTS SUBSIDE AND SWELL PERIODS DECREASE. THE DURATION
AND STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLIES WILL PROBABLY LIMIT SHORT PERIOD
WAVE GROWTH. COMBINED SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE NEAR 10 FT WITH
SHORTER PERIODS ON SUNDAY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RIDGING AND LIGHT-TO-MODERATE NORTHERLIES CONTINUING ON MON
AFTER A WEAK WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE NORTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL START TO BREAKDOWN AROUND MID WEEK AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS STEEPER WAVES. A
WESTERLY SWELL WILL LIKELY BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE
SWELL PERIODS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE VERY LONG WITH THE FIRST SWELL.
ANOTHER LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUN FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

$$

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