Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 221157
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
457 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW TO THE SE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN TO NW CALIFORNIA AND STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TO THE
COASTAL RANGES OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. A
STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SAT)...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE TAKING AIM AT NW CAL. LIGHT
RAIN HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT CRESCENT CITY THIS MORNING WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS NW CAL
THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE NNW TO THE SSE. AS IT DRIPS INTO
SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY, MODEL INDICATE THE FRONT STALLING OUT
THEN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THU. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY STALLING OUT, A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THU AND INTO FRI. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AS A RESULT OF
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOLLOWING THIS
WARM FRONT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW CAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SOME DRYING AND CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR.
WE`LL SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT AND WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST
THE COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN ON THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
COLD FRONT TO BE RATHER POTENT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER, MODELS DO DIFFER IN TIMING. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE AS WE GET
BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT AND BEGIN TO SEE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP.

OVERALL LOOK FOR A WET FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH, 6KFT+, WITH
LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. BFG

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THRU WED)...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AS
A POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MOVE OVER THE AREA.
MOIST NW FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
PERSISTING...BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY
DRYING THINGS OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH A TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALMOST A WEEK OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS
IS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND WETTER...COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. STP

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS A COLD FRONT SINKS
ACROSS NW CAL. DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LOOK FOR LIFR/IFR.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE AT CEC WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. CEC WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP, WHICH IT
ALREADY HAS, THEN ACV LATE MORNING AND UKI IN THE EVENING. TIMING
SHOULD BE GOOD IN THE TAFS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
BFG

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10Z NEAR SHORE BUOYS WERE REPORTING SEAS OF 9 TO
10 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 12 SECONDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND PEAK THIS EVENING DUE TO AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE
WATERS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE STEEP SEAS TO
BUILD...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS WILL
DECREASE ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470 FROM
9 AM THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE...CONTINUING
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AS SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO THE
WEEKEND. STP

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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