Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 030435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ADJUSTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. AN
AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...AND 925MB RH
SUPPORTS INCREASED COVERAGE IN LAKE OF THE WOODS...ROSEAU...AND
BELTRAMI COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BRINGING
SCATTERED SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO PCPN. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL
SUNSET WHEN THE INVERSION SETS UP AND WINDS TAPER OFF...BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH A BIT OF A
TIGHT GRADIENT. THE SFC RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST AS A WHOLE REMAINS ON TARGET WITH LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS...RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF
THIS UPPER WAVE. THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE A STRONGER WAVE ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE GEM IS MUCH QUICKER AS
WELL...HAVING FORCING/PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BRINGING THE FORCING INTO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY GOING WITH A CHANCE ALONG THE FAR SOUTH AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH (AND LEAD SHORTWAVES) APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND GEM ARE MUCH QUICKER WITH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRINGING INSTABILITY/PRECIP INTO THE REGION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN AFT AROUND 15Z WITH
INVERSION BREAK. LITTLE TO NO PCPN EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPKINS


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