Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192106
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
306 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Fog/drizzle/mist potential will be the main impacts for tonight
continuing into tomorrow. For the most part skies have cleared and
visibility has lifted except for a narrow ribbon from Hallock
through Grand Forks and Valley city. Farther south a larger area
of stratus and fog over E South Dakota will work northward
tonight as moist low level southerly flow continues. Areas of
visibility blo a half mile so will have to monitor and would not
be surprised if dense fog advisory may be needed later this
evening. Always possible to see some zl/mist in denser fog
however there is minimal isentropic lift and moist layer very
shallow so feel any pcpn would be pretty spotty but again will
need to monitor. With higher dewpoints moving in some areas over
the se half of the fa may not drop blo freezing with coolest
temperatures over the far nw.

Lower condensation pressure deficits and isentropic lift clip the
far east tomorrow so this area may see more of a wintry mix than
just drizzle like farther west. Fog likely will also be around at
least for the am. Temperatures will remain mild although not a
great deal of recovery with clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Upper level low and lower level saturated layer to provide clouds to
the northern plains through the weekend and into early next week.
Only light accumulations are expected with primary ptype to be
liquid, rain or drizzle, across the valley and NW MN as thermal
profile remains unseasonably warm. 925mb temps and even SFC
dewpoints above freezing to persist into Sunday when blyr winds turn
to the west northwest. Devils Lake Basin will remain a bit colder
with a freezing drizzle or -sn threat Saturday into Saturday night.
Minimal diurnal temperature changes with the low level clouds,
highs and lows at most 5 degrees apart.

By Monday upper level low and associated weak lift move north of the
FA and the next area of concern begins to organize across the
central high plains. Model guidance with this system keeps the track
of the snow band across southern MN and Iowa Tuesday and Wednesday.
Will maintain some slight -sn chances in the far south during this
time. Thermal profile will gradually lower with highs steadily
decreasing from low 30s to mid 20s by the end of the period and lows
falling from 20s to teens, still above normal for the end of
January.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Clouds variable across the region but IFR where there is cloud
cover along mainly mvfr vsby in br. Another larger area of Stratus
and ifr VSBY lifting north and will be moving into the far south
late afternoon and south spread north overnight as moist low level
southerly flow continues. so any VFR areas will be limited to this
afternoon and early evening.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Voelker



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