Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 291904
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS ARE LOWERING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS WI IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING CIGS TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER...AND SOME FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND WILL LAST
THROUGH SUNRISE SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING THE
LAKE WILL BECOME QUIET.  WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS KEEPING
WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK


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