Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 240552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
755 PM HST Mon Jan 23 2017

A high northeast of the area will maintain locally breezy trade
winds through mid-week. A trough aloft and remnants of a front will
keep windward areas showery through tomorrow night. During the
second half of the week a surface ridge will shift south near the
islands. The ridge will bring light winds and dry weather. A band of
showers along a new front will move across the islands next weekend.
Trade winds will return early next week as a new high moves east
behind the front.


A 1029 mb surface high 1100 miles northeast of Honolulu is forecast
to move east at 15 mph over the next few days. The high will
maintain locally breezy trade winds over the islands through mid-
week. An east to west band of showery low clouds associated with the
remnant of a front extends east from over the windward sides of the
islands. The trade winds will push some of these clouds and showers
over the islands through tomorrow night, so windward areas will
remain showery.

As the high moves east, a surface ridge north of the islands will
shift south closer to the islands during the second half of the
week. Winds over the area will weaken and daytime sea breezes and
nighttime land breezes will develop. A ridge aloft will build
eastward over the area and make the atmosphere quite stable, so
rainfall will be minimal.

A new front will move southeast over the islands next weekend,
reaching Kauai Saturday night and moving down to the big Island by
Monday morning. The front is expected to bring widespread showers,
but moisture along the front will likely be too shallow for heavy
rain. A new high will move east behind the front and produce breezy
trade winds through the first half of next week.


Remnant clouds and showers from an old front will linger over east
sections of the islands tonight and Tuesday. AIRMET Sierra is in
effect for TEMPO MTN OBSC. VFR conditions will prevail for leeward
areas. No other AIRMETs are expected through Tuesday.


A strong high northeast of the area is maintaining locally strong
easterly trade winds across some areas of the Hawaiian waters.
Also, in some areas seas remain above 10 feet due to a north swell
and waves produced by the strong trade winds. The trade winds and the
associated elevated seas will gradually subside overnight. A large
northwest swell building on Tuesday will keep seas elevated in areas
exposed to the swell.  Please see the latest Marine Weather Message,
MWWHFO, for further details.

The strong trade winds and a short-period north swell continue to
produce surf above eight feet along east facing shores. This surf
will continue to subside, and is expected to drop below eight feet
overnight. The large new northwest swell arriving tomorrow will
produce surf well above the advisory threshold along north and west
shores of the smaller islands by Tuesday afternoon.

Another large northwest swell may produce advisory-level surf
along north and west facing shores of the smaller islands starting
Friday night and continuing into next weekend. There is a chance
this swell will require a high surf warning.


High Surf Advisory until 600 AM Tuesday for east facing shores of
Kauai Oahu Molokai Maui and the Big Island.

High Surf Advisory from noon Tuesday through noon Wednesday for
north and west facing shores of Niihau Kauai Oahu and Molokai and
north facing shores of Maui.

Small Craft Advisory through Wednesday for a combination of strong
trade winds and seas above 10 feet.


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