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000
FXHW60 PHFO 101935
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE BIG ISLAND
SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON. A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS
MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE ISLANDS FRIDAY...USHERING IN STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS
IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
RIDGE ARE KEEPING MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR DATA SHOW TRADE SHOWERS CONCENTRATING OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER WINDWARD AREAS
OF THE BIG ISLAND...THE WINDWARD AND SE SLOPES OF HALEAKALA IN
MAUI...AND ALONG THE KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGE IN OAHU.

THIS PERSISTING PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LVL TROUGH E OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL
STRENGTHEN BY MIDWEEK AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING ENHANCED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE BIG ISLAND.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY GFS...SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING E AND AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
MIDWEEK...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
CELL MOVING IN FROM THE W. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL TRANSLATE
INTO EXPERIENCING WEAKENING TRADE WINDS TODAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
STRONGER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE VOLCANO SLOPES.
THE RAINY PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER MOST WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS.

BY TUESDAY...THE INCOMING HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE N OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND BRING BACK A MODERATE TRADE WIND REGIME THROUGH FRI BEFORE
A COLD FRONT REACHES KAUAI LATE FRI. BUT THIS WEAK FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA AS IT QUICKLY
DISSIPATES....EXCEPT FOR WINDS WEAKENING A LITTLE BUT STILL
REMAINING MAINLY FROM THE E. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE ISLANDS WILL
INTENSIFY DURING THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASINGLY STRONG AND
GUSTY TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA CONTINUES FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OBSCURING THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS IMPROVED
OVER THE REMAINING ISLANDS THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXPANSION OF THE
AIRMET LATER TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY BRING CLEAR AIR
TURBULENCE TO THE UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NW SWELL WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY...PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
LOWER SLOWLY ON THURSDAY. A SLIGHTLY LARGER NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
BY FRIDAY ON SOME OF THE N AND W FACING SHORES.

TRADE WINDS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDY ZONES...BY MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
FURTHER THIS WEEKEND DUE TO A STRONG HIGH NW OF THE STATE BEHIND A
PASSING FRONT. BY THEN...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
EXIST IN ALL COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE WARNINGS
IN THE CHANNELS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...M BALLARD