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000
FXHW60 PHFO 120658
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED DEC 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ADVANCING FRONT STALLS
BRIEFLY WEST OF THE STATE. LIGHT WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS
OF THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT MAY ADVANCE TO THE ISLANDS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WETTER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING AS ONLY A FEW
LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ISLAND VICINITY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS JUST EAST OF MAUI AT
TIME...AND THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE ISLANDS LATER THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING SOME SHORES AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING TRADE WINDS TO THE
STATE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST THIS EVENING...AS AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST PUSHES CLOSER TO THE STATE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TRADE WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE
ISLANDS. IN THE MEAN TIME...TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FEW
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE THIS APPROACHING
FRONT WILL STALL SOME WAYS WEST OF KAUAI IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
WESTERN ISLANDS...MORE TYPICAL TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THUS A MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE WEATHER
REGIME WILL SLOWLY SET IN OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS...WITH LAND AND
SEA BREEZES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT BY THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS UNDER DAY TIME HEATING...WHILE NIGHT TIME COOLING WILL
RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES OVER THOSE ISLANDS. LOW CLOUDS
CARRIED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY STILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD
AREAS AT TIMES. MAUI COUNTY AS WELL THE BIG ISLAND WILL EXPERIENCE
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER...WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO MAY SPREAD VOLCANIC HAZE FROM THE BIG
ISLAND TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE STALLED FRONT MAY RESUME ITS MOVEMENT TOWARDS TO THE ISLANDS BY
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM FURTHER NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE STATE. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE OVER KAUAI SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS...THEN SPREAD OVER OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ALONG. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DESTABILIZE AS COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REACHES THE
STATE...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ISLANDS MAY SEE POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
OVER THE ISLANDS...THOUGH THEY DO ALL POINT TOWARDS THE GENERAL
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE STATE THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY FOR AREAS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BY THURSDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE
AIRMET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE TRADE WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN...SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS FOR
WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL CEASE BY EARLY THURSDAY.

A LARGE NW SWELL WILL BUILD RAPIDLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...FOSTER
PUBLIC AND MARINE...HUI