Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 280122 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
522 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
INCLUDED THUNDER IN SIERRA AND INCREASED WINDS IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. WIND ADVISORTY ISSUED UNTIL 4 PM SAT
FOR PARTS OF KERN COUNTY.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM THAT ORIGINATED IN WESTERN CANADA IS TRACKING SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND WILL BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE SIERRA. REGIONAL LDS
IS INDICATING LIGHTNING IN ASSOCIAOTIN WITH STORMS IN THE SIERRA.
WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTINAIS
AND DESERT AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA BY
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING OUT ABOVE 7000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5000 FEET IN THE
SIERRA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN DOWN TO NEAR 4000 FEET BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 4000 FEET.

FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE
GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
DUE TO THE NATURE OF SHOWERS...SOME AREAS WILL GET A BIT MORE
WHILE SOME GET VERY LITTLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN THE COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY AND IN
THE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD POOL OF AIR
ALOFT AND BETTER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS THERE.

FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
AND SNOW LEVELS FALL TO NEAR 4000 FEET. ALTHOUGH ONLY 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO FALL...THIS LOW SNOW LEVEL WILL AFFECT THE
ROADS THROUGH THE PASSES...ESPECIALLY INTERSTATE 5 OVER THE
GRAPEVINE. THUS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET FROM 4 PM SATURDAY
THROUGH 4 AM MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OVER CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
AND BRING A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...

OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
PRECIPITATION. WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. LOCAL
MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AFTER
06Z SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL
OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-27       79:1992     45:1996     54:2006     26:1962
KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888

KBFL 02-27       83:1980     46:1962     58:1988     24:1893
KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET
FOR THE CAZ096-097.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
CAZ095.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ095-098-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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