Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 282008
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
108 PM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region through
Wednesday bringing dry weather and a warming trend to the area
before another fast moving and potentially windy storm system
drops into the Great Basin on Thursday and and Thursday Night.
High pressure will return for more springlike conditions for the
.DISCUSSION...A few low clouds have developed over the Sierra
Nevada and adjacent foothills; otherwise mostly clear skies
prevail throughout the region. The ridge of high pressure at this
time is centered along the central CA coast. Temperatures are
generally several degrees warmer compared to this time yesterday,
while winds have decreased. We expect a relatively warm day on
Wednesday as the high pressure ridge moves inland, though not
The high pressure is expected to weaken by Wednesday night before
an inside-slider trough of low pressure moves mainly over the
Great Basin and east of the Sierra Nevada. This system will drop a
cold front and bring a chance for some light showers mainly over
the Sierra and into the foothills. We cannot rule a few showers
over the east side of the SJ Valley, so have a slight chance in
these areas for now. The primary concern with this system will be
gusty winds, especially in the Kern County mountains and desert.
We have issued a Wind Advisory for these areas for Thursday
afternoon and evening, as models have been consistent in showing
sufficient upper-level dynamics for gusts around 50-55 mph,
especially near the passes and canyons. Otherwise, expect mainly
breezy conditions with slightly lower temperatures for the region.
For the weekend, another ridge of high pressure will build over
central CA and allow for another warming trend. At this time, we
expect the warmest temperatures to reach around 10 degrees above
average, so highs in the lower 80s are not out of the question in
the San Joaquin Valley and the Kern County desert areas,
especially by Sunday.
There is low confidence regarding early next week, including
Monday and next Tuesday, as models differ significantly in
solutions. However, it appears latest models have delayed any return
of precipitation until beyond our forecast period, or after next
Tuesday. For now, have trended temperatures lower to near
VFR conditions can be expected across the central CA interior for
the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
Wind Advisory from noon to 11 PM PDT Thursday CAZ095-098-099.