Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 291000
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS LIFTING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS BROUGHT A WARMING
TREND TO THE GOLDEN STATE...WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY HIGHS TUESDAY AROUND 100 DEGREES. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY.

TODAY LIKELY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST MONSOONAL PUSH WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...05Z NAM-12/ 00Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF...ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MONSOONAL AIRMASS NOT
REACHING THE KERN COUNTY DESERT UNTIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY /1700 PDT
THIS AFTERNOON/ AND SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST NOT TO BE OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL THURSDAY...PUSHING INTO FRESNO AND HE CENTRAL
VALLEY A DAY LATER.

ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF IS LOW WITH THIS MONSOONAL AIRMASS...IT MUST BR
REMEMBERED THAT THE MODELS HAD SIMILAR QPF/S WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONSOONAL SURGES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.

THE FLOW ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AND TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL
PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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