Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 020945
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM CROSSING
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...CONVECTION CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS MORNING. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY AND CONSEQUENTLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR HAVE BEEN LIGHT. EVEN SO...BOTH BAKERSFIELD
AND FRESNO SET RAINFALL RECORDS FOR JULY 1ST. BAKERSFIELD ALSO SET A
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 1ST...WHILE FRESNO MISSED
ITS RECORD BY ONLY ONE DEGREE.

                 BAKERSFIELD            FRESNO
                 JULY 1    OLD REC      JULY 1     OLD REC
RAINFALL         TRACE     0            0.03 IN    TRACE IN 1916
HI MIN           83        81 IN 2013   79         80 IN 1934

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL IS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER
CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POPS FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FRIDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
FLOOR AS FAR NORTH AS DELANO AND PORTERVILLE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF  THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND LIMITING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

AS WITH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT AND PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE CLOUDS KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FORECASTED VALUES WEDNESDAY /BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL/...LOWS WERE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT WARM LOWS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND 100 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL
06Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901
KFAT 07-04      112:1889     79:1955     81:2001     51:1951

KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
KBFL 07-04      114:1931     82:1955     81:2001     49:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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