Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 241050
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
350 AM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue for the next few days
over the central California interior as an upper level trough
resides along the west coast. Scattered showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms will be possible over much of Central California
Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening. A slight gradual warming
trend is forecasted during the latter part of week as weak high
pressure moves in over the region.
Upper level disturbance continues to affect the region as dynamic
forcing produces showers this morning. While light showers were
developing across the San Joaquin valley, Doppler radar showed the
South Valley from Corcoran to Bakersfield producing some more
moderate showers. An area of more significant Positive Vorticity
Advection along with a jet max rounding the upper low is favoring
the south valley this morning. Yet, model instability parameters
is favoring the northern sections of the San Joaquin Valley later
today as the upper low shifts the flow to a more southeasterly
direction. However, will keep the entire valley under a convective
threat along with the mountains.
Upper low expected to drop further south in the next 24 hours
toward southern California/southwestern Arizona. While the
location of the upper low will place the district under the area
of neg. vort. advection, the area will remain under the area of
cyclonic flow. Therefore, will maintain at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada through
Longer range models do show a continuation of mountain showers on
Thursday, even as a weak short-wave ridge moves through the
region. By the end of the week, models show another upper low
attempting to drop toward the west coast. While models show the
return of cyclonic flow over the west coast, the upper low remains
stationary over the pacific northwest. GFS mod-trend analysis
picks up on this stationary position as it height rises associated
with the end of the week trof moving toward California. Therefore,
will keep precip potential confined to the mountains as indicated
by model analysis. By the end of the forecast cycle, model
certainty drops-off, but models do trend toward a developing ridge
pattern over the west.
MVFR/VFR for ceilings in the San Joaquin Valley in -SHRA and VCTS
through 06z Wednesday. IFR/MVFR in Sierra for SHRA and TSRA with
mountain obscuration in low ceilings and precipitation. VFR in the
Kern county desert.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.