Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 032122
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE INVADING THE SKIES OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
INCREASING CLOUDS...DECREASING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
INTO CENTRAL CA TODAY BUT THIS IS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS
PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN HAS BEEN THAT CONVECTION HAS
BEEN INHIBITED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO JUST SOME CUMULUS BUILD-UPS TODAY. IN
FACT...AN INVERSION ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN SOME FALSE RADAR RETURN
ECHOS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND VALLEY FACING SLOPES IN TULARE AND
KERN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

WV SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR 132W SLOWLY
PUSHING EASTWARD. THE 12Z WRF IS INDICATING A STRONG UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER
FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SPREADS SOME DEEP
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA WITH INCREASED CAPES AND INSTABILITY. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF KERN COUNTY.

BY THURSDAY...THE LOW IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOCAL THEN THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH INLAND ACROSS SOCAL BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA
WITH ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
CAPES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO
BE BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY HEAVIER SHOWERS. FRIDAY
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR EARLY MAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN RESPONSE
CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS
OVER OUR AREA WITH HIGH CAPES. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA ONCE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH A SLOW RECOVERY IS EXPECTED.
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SHOWING A DRY UPPER RIDGE PUSHING INTO CA ON
MONDAY AND BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO OUR AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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