Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 281000
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE REGION. A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL CA. THE 06Z WRF IS INDICATING THAT THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
SATRUDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND THAT IS
TAKING PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY FRIDAY AND EVENT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH PORTIONS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK.

MEANWHILE...A FEW SHOWERS BROKE OUT YDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR
AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY...A CAPPING INVERSION RESULTING FROM WARMING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION AND WHILE A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIFTING
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EASTWARD BY SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY POTENT
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE NORCAL COAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REACH NORTHWESTERN CA BY SUNDAY NIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
THE PAC NW ON MONDAY THEN LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...IT WILL BRING
SYNOPTIC COOLING AND INCREASED ONSHORE P-GRADS TO OUR AREA
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BELOW
THE PASSES IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A COOLING TREND
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
BETWEEN 19Z THURS AND 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988

KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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