Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 160900
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE LATTER ART OF THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
STATE/S WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH SEVERAL RECORDS SET FOR BOTH NEW RECORD HIGHS AND HIGH
MINIMUMS. /FOR DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE RECORD EVENT REPORT...SXUS76
KHNX OR SFORERHNX...ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE IN HANFORD./

INCLUDING MONDAY...FRESNO HAS HAD 49 DAYS THIS YEAR WITH TRIPLE-
DIGIT HEAT...AND BAKERSFIELD HAS HAD 42 DAYS. WITH A BLOCKING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN CANADA...AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND TROPICAL STORM ODILE
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BE HARD TO
DISLODGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY...AND THE NAM-
12 HAS ONLY A DEGREE CELSIUS DROP. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONE MORE
DAY OF TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THE MODELS FORECAST ODILE TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROPICAL STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND ODILE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT AREAS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENED...THE MODELS BRING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
INTO CALIFORNIA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A CLOSED LOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER FRESNO BY 18Z /1100 PDT/ FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST FRIDAY.

THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
REACHES CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH 850-MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND 15 C BY 00Z FRIDAY /1700 PDT THURSDAY/. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW
DEGREES FRIDAY WITH FURTHER WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT THE MODELS FORECAST THE BLOCKING
TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...THE PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONTINENT WOULD BE SLOWED AND THE COOLING
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MIGHT BE EITHER DELAYED OR
REDUCED.

AN EAST-PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO
CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST
WARMING AT 850 MB...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY COULD EVEN SEE A
RETURN OF TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT...ESPECIALLY SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A COLD BIAS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WAS SLOW TO PICK UP ON THE
LAST ROUND OF 100+ DEGREE HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 16 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-16      105:1937     70:1908     73:1934     49:1955
KFAT 09-17      105:1979     73:1950     74:1984     48:1965
KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978

KBFL 09-16      109:1929     74:1959     77:1971     42:1915
KBFL 09-17      108:1913     74:1993     76:1979     45:1915
KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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