Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 201010
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
210 AM PST Fri Jan 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A series of Pacific storm systems will continue to
move inland across the state through Monday, bringing periods of
rain and mountain snow along with gusty winds to the region.
.DISCUSSION...Band of light warm occlusion rain and snow is
rapidly moving east into the Sierra as the next larger and more
intense area moves into Merced County. This second area is being
enhanced by lots of dynamics as shown on satellite imagery. A
vorticity center is pushing toward the Bay Area as a strong jet
stream is aligned into the Central Coast. Precipitation will
expand over the next few hours with the maximum coverage occuring
during the morning hours. As colder air arrives aloft the nature
of the rain and snow will become showery towards late morning and
forecast models indicate some moderate instability with CAPE
values increasing to several hundred j/kg. Should see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms in the San Joaquin Valley and possibly the
foothills. After close examination of current winds and high
resolution forecast models the wind advisory for parts of the San
Joaquin Valley has been delayed by a few hours this morning. It
still looks rather windy over especially Merced County later this
For tonight the showery precipitation will begin to diminish as
the current storm system moves east and brief...again brief weak
ridging moves across the region Saturday afternoon. Saturday
evening the next band of warm frontal overrunning rain and snow
arrive from the next Pacific system. Sunday through Sunday evening
look to be very wet as forecast models don`t push the trough
through the area until Monday. A trailing low pressure system is
then projected to move down the coast Tuesday and then move well
southeast of the area. Ridging is then forecast to build over the
area for a return to quiet weather.
So...lots of of headlines for Snow in the Sierra and Kern County
Mountains today through Sunday and of course the obligatory river
statement products as gauged rivers continue to run high due to
releases from reservoirs. Active weather for sure to continue...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the San Joaquin Valley
between 19Z Friday and 03Z Saturday. Widespread mountain obscuring
IFR conditions in low clouds and precipitation across the southern
Sierra Nevada, adjacent foothills and Tehachapi mountains.
Additionally, local wind gusts of 35 knots or greater are possible
in the central San Joaquin Valley and the west side of the San
Joaquin Valley between 14Z Friday and 20Z Friday. VFR conditions can
be expected elsewhere across the central California interior during
the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Saturday CAZ096-097.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM PST
Saturday ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE CAZ095.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon PST today