Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 221449 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
949 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET AFTERNOON IN STORE AS DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS ARE UPPER 40S IN NE MS WHILE IN THE MID 50S IN THE SW. 12Z
KJAN SOUNDING SHOWS H900 TEMPS AROUND 13-14C...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S. WENT WITH EUROMOS AS TEMPS WERE WARMING SLIGHTLY
QUICKER AND EFFICIENT MIXING/ENSEMBLE MOS SUPPORT HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO WARMER. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE NE TODAY AS 1024MB HIGH
PRESSURE AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILD IN FROM THE NE.
MODIFIED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAY...
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING FRONT. DUE TO THIS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. OVERALL...GUIDANCE
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND VALUES WILL BE FOLLOWED. THE
EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH TODAY WHERE A COMBINATION OF THE NAM
OR RAW GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FIT THE SITUATION BETTER. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE SOME 3-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA OF 70-77 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
INTO FRI MORNING WITH LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS MAINLY IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS THU WILL REFLECT THE SAME TREND AND RANGE FROM
70-75. /CME/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER THE
REGION.  WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL
OR WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD FRIDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW
SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50...AND END THE PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE
50S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  43  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      75  39  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     77  42  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   78  45  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    73  44  70  43 /   0   0   4   0
GREENWOOD     73  41  71  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/DL/CME/19





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