Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 272121
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
421 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

For the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening, there will
continue to be a strong moisture gradient over the forecast area
with shower/thunderstorm chances mostly confined to south of the
Highway 84 corridor. Otherwise, expect quiet weather overnight with a
few patchy areas of fog.

Going from Sunday through Monday, the ArkLaMiss will remain between
a strong subtropical high centered to the northeast and a relatively
weaker trough over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The southeast flow
between these features will maintain the strong moisture gradient
from southwest to northeast over the area, and this is reflected in
our rain chance forecasts. Given plenty of sun the next couple of
days, we will see afternoon temperatures a few degrees above climatic
normal, but afternoon surface dewpoints will continue to mix down
into the mid/upper 60s at many locations, and this will keep heat
stress from getting overly excessive.

Concerning tropics, Invest 99L remains weak and there is much
uncertainty regarding future development over the next couple of days
as it approaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico, let alone the prospects
for any potential impacts to the ArkLaMiss later in the week. Please
refer to the National Hurricane Center outlooks for this disturbance.
/EC/

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...The main theme for much of next
week will be warm and comparatively drier conditions across the
ArkLaMiss. We also continue to monitor the tropics for any potential
development in the Gulf of Mexico.

Early next week, a broad ridge will extend from the Central Plains
across the Mid-South and Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. By this
time, comparatively lesser deep layer moisture will exist across most
of the CWA, with the exception of the S/W fringes of the area. Though
some diurnal convection will still be around, it will likely be much
more limited compared to the past couple weeks. This should allow
high temps to remain above normal through this time frame, with heat
indices likely peaking around 100 most days.

Heading into the latter half of the week, mid/upper troughing will
develop along the East Coast. This will nudge a weak cold front
southward through the Midwest, attempting to move into our region
around Friday or Saturday. However, the upper trough will shift
eastward, so there won`t be much of an upper level "push" to get the
front through our area. Thus, it will likely stall and quickly
weaken. Nevertheless, as deep layer moisture increases over the
area, this should provide slightly better rain chances toward the
end of the week. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  94  73  94 /   4  10   8  16
Meridian      71  93  73  93 /   2  10   8  14
Vicksburg     73  94  73  95 /   4  21  14  16
Hattiesburg   74  92  73  92 /   3  33  12  26
Natchez       73  90  73  89 /  14  38  20  30
Greenville    73  95  73  94 /   2  10   6  17
Greenwood     73  94  74  94 /   5  10   5  21

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the period. Patchy
MVFR conditions in fog will develop after 28/06Z and linger until
28/14Z.

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

/EC/DL/26/



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