Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 091606
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURING JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHIFT EVEN FURTHER AWAY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 6PM FOR WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MIN RH`S FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE COMBINING WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS. MADE A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK./15/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
INTERMEDIATE CLOUD DECK PERSISTING OVER NE SECTIONS. EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK TO SPREAD BACK OUT TO THE SW SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT NOT AS
EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY.

SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL SUPPORT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GFS BUFR DATA SHOWING WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER AVERAGING AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON
THIS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS AND SLIGHTLY LESS TO THE SOUTH.

DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SW QUARTER ALONG WITH 20 TO
30 MPH WINDS WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED FIRE DANGER RISK AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE THIS ALONG WITH THE WIND RISK IN THE HWO THIS
MORNING.

MID LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER COOL
DAY TODAY AND COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL TROF/SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY LEADING TO WARMER LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS./26/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST FORTUNATELY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER SUBDUED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.  AGAIN NO
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...
AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARE
EXPECTED.

YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WILL AID IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO FALL ON MONDAY.  RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW
WIND WILL BE GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET. /DL/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  26  51  36 /   1   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  22  50  29 /   2   3   0   5
VICKSBURG     50  28  53  41 /   1   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   51  27  53  33 /   3   3   0   4
NATCHEZ       52  29  54  42 /   1   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    47  27  49  36 /   2   3   0   0
GREENWOOD     45  23  47  33 /   4   3   0   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/19


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