Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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491
FXUS64 KJAN 280215
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
915 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Skies were mostly clear this evening across the area with
temperatures mainly in the upper 70s. Expect lows overnight to
fall into the low 70s for most locations. Several models still
have showers and storms moving into the cwa from the north early
Sunday morning. The only change to the forecast was to slow the
arrival of precip into the north by a few hours based on latest
guidance. /27/

Prior discussion below:


Tonight through tomorrow...

Several short term/high res models depict a complex of
thunderstorms associated with the ongoing convection over the
Plains, moving through the Mid-South this evening and approaching
our region tonight from the north after midnight. A few of these
storms could be strong/severe when they reach the northern border
of the JAN CWA, prompting the current SPC Day one slight risk for
a few of our counties tonight. This convective system will
succumb to a capped environment as the move further south into our
region.

Temperatures will approach the 90`s again on Sunday. Severe
storms will be possible once again on Sunday afternoon through
Sunday night, this time for a greater portion of our region, as a
cold front nears the region, providing enough lift to finally
break the cap. A very unstable prefrontal airmass will exist ahead
of the front over the region with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000
j/kg and 0-6km lapse rates nearing 7 C/km. This threat of severe
weather prompted the inclusion of a great deal of our area in the
slight risk zone for day 2. The greatest threat for any severe
storms tonight or tomorrow will be damaging straight line winds
and large hail. /3/

Sunday night through Friday...

On Sunday night we will have an upper trough centered with a
closed low over South Central Canada which will extend down to the
Lower Mississippi Valley. A series of short waves in the southern
stream will keep our rain chances going through the upcoming work
week with pwats pushing toward 2 inches. There will be a risk of
some severe storms for Sunday night into Monday as well as
possibly at times during the work week. The primary risk will be
half dollar size hail,locally heavy rainfall, and damaging winds.
A cold front will be approaching the region from the northwest.
Rain chances will spread across the region on Sunday night as the
front enters the region by early Monday. Cam guidance shows an MCS
moving across the region during the overnight hours from west to
east. Latest 12z models shows that the best instability (MLCapes
2500+ j/kg) and deep layer shear of 40-50 knots. Cam guidance
shows another MCS moving across the region during the
afternoon,which will move along the boundary laid out by the first
MCS. The front will exit the region by early Tuesday, but will
wash out as a more humid airmass rebuilds over the region on
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another front will move into the
region and become stationary across the north on Thursday into
Friday. The upper trough axis will move off to the east on
Thursday into Friday. A southern stream shortwave trough will
approach the region from the Southern Plains. This will send
additional rounds of rain chances for Friday into Friday night.
Models and ensembles had difference ideals on the evolution of
this system for the end of the work week. However all the models
and their ensembles show a wet work week is in store for the
ArkLaMiss as a series of shortwave bucked by the 591 dkm gulf
ridge will continue our rain chances during the work week.

Looking ahead our rain chances will continue into the weekend as the
short wave trough moves into the region./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail this evening, then expect increasing
MVFR category ceiling development after 06 UTC in the persistent
moist return flow regime. TSRA/SHRA activity to the north may
approach the GLH-GWO-GTR in the 09-12 UTC time frame, but
intensity is questionable as storms are expected to encounter
increasingly stable air as they move south. Expect ceilings to
remain rather low through mid morning before lifting to VFR
category by early afternoon. Additional TSRA/SHRA will be possible
through Sunday afternoon and evening, particularly north of the
JAN/HKS-MEI area, but confidence is too include in TAFs. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  89  70  82 /   9  20  54  67
Meridian      72  89  70  83 /   8  17  46  64
Vicksburg     73  88  71  82 /   9  24  62  60
Hattiesburg   71  89  72  84 /   6  16  30  66
Natchez       73  88  71  80 /   9  21  49  66
Greenville    72  86  70  82 /  55  43  64  48
Greenwood     73  86  69  81 /  48  42  64  57

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$



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