Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 100533 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1133 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Mostly calm winds
overnight will gradually become light northeasterly after sunrise
then winds will become more east to south during Saturday./17/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through tomorrow:

Overall a quiet stretch of weather is expected going into the
weekend but cold weather again tonight will continue to be the main
story. Deep longwave trough extends over most of the CONUS with very
strong and anomalous surface ridging spilling over into the northern
Plains through most areas east of the Rockies. At the surface near
our area, near 1038mb surface ridge is just to the northwest of our
area in the lower Mississippi Valley. This strong anomalous surface
ridging (above 99th percentile) has brought a shallow arctic airmass
into the region, which helped bring PW`s less than a quarter of an
inch or so. 12Z sounding this morning showed 925mb temps near -8 deg
C at LZK while we at JAN are near -3 deg. We are warming nicely into
the low to mid 40s but areas in the north, due to colder boundary
layer air, are struggling to reach the 40 degree mark. Adjusted highs
slightly lower up there in the Highway 82 corridor today.

For tonight, expect the surface ridge to build to the east slowly just
to our north over the lower-mid Mississippi Valley with the pressure
gradient becoming lighter over the area, especially south of the
I-20 corridor. Due to a very light pressure gradient and such
anomalous surface ridging and dry air, thinking we could easily get
into the low to mid 20s over most of the area. Some areas in the
Highway 82 corridor could briefly fall into the teens. Went closer to
the colder MOS/Euro guidance for lows tonight.

Winds will gradually become more easterly to southerly tomorrow as
the ridge builds into the Appalachians but this will help somewhat
reinforce dry air to stay locked in. We will warm some 4-5 degrees C
at 925mb, which will help us warm into the low 50s in the south while
areas in the north could linger in the mid-upper 40s. Can`t rule out
some high clouds streaming in the Delta as a surface low takes shape
over the Rockies but overall a nice clear day is expected. Due to
some dry air, some fire weather concerns are possible due to low
humidity over the central and east Mississippi. However, with recent
rainfall helping to moisten soils and light winds, for now leaving
out of the HWO. /DC/

Sunday through Friday:

A zonal flow pattern will be present across the CONUS through most
of this next week, with a generally cold airmass in place across
central portions of the country. A shortwave will spin up a surface
low over the Plains this weekend that should push a cold front into
our region by Sunday night into Monday morning. Given the low
amplitude flow aloft, the front will lack a significant push and
should stall out over the area. Best chance for POPs will be as the
front enters the area early Monday morning, and have at least slight
chance POPs lingering into Wednesday ahead of the next significant
cold front arrival. Colder air filters into the area Wednesday night
as another 1040 mb surface high builds over the Midwest. The tail
end of the forecast becomes a little less certain. The ECMWF is
quicker with lifting the surface high northeastward by Saturday and
brings a warm moist airmass into our region. The slower GFS keeps
colder air in place into the weekend. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       24  51  35  65 /   0   0   1   6
Meridian      22  53  30  63 /   0   0   1   3
Vicksburg     23  50  35  66 /   0   0   1  10
Hattiesburg   24  53  32  67 /   0   0   1   2
Natchez       26  51  38  67 /   0   0   1  10
Greenville    23  46  35  62 /   0   0   2  13
Greenwood     21  49  34  62 /   0   0   2  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$


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