Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 251957
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT ARRIVES IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 06Z...THEN QUICKLY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z. BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE OVER NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SO HAVE LIMITED
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ONLY A LOW 20-30% CHANCE OF PASSING MORNING
SHOWERS OVER NE FL EARLY MONDAY MORNING OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY POST-FRONTAL WINDS MON
MIDDAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DRY
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL PREVAIL UNDER MEAN LAYER WNW
FLOW DUE TO PERSISTENT MEAN LAYER EAST COAST TROUGH AXIS DOWN THE
SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. YET ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TRAILED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
INTO WED. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL RELAX WINDS AND ENABLE MIN
TEMPS TO COOL FURTHER OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT WITH A FREEZE INLAND AND
FROST WILL BE MOST PROBABLE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS INLAND MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE THU AS STACKED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION THEN SHIFTS SOUTH THU NIGHT. HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S AS CLOUDINESS INCREASE FROM THE WNW THU AFTN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
LOW 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF IS STILL DEEPER WITH THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THUS GENERATES MORE PRECIP FRI
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND FOR THIS PACKAGE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD
ENSEMBLE POPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS
WETTER AND WARMER STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A COOLER AND DRIER WNW FLOW AND CLEAN
FRONTAL PASSAGE. USED THE MEN/ECM GUIDANCE AND HEDGED TOWARD LOW
15% CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NE FL LATE SAT-SUN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY.

HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY TO THIS EVENING...IN
ANTICIPATION OF WINDS PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRE
FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
HIGH BUILDING FROM THE WEST...AND A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.

HAVE ADDED THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS TO THE ADVISORY STARTING
MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS POST FRONTAL...AND MAY HAVE TO
INCLUDE GALE HEADLINE FOR OUTER WATERS IF NEXT FORECAST CYCLE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS INCREASING TREND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A COOL FRONT SLIDING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER 75 UNITS EXPECTED BOTH
MON & TUE DUE TO STRONG WINDS 15-25 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT
FORECAST HOWEVER DUE TO RHS ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES AND HIGH GROUND
MOISTURE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  56  35  57 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  45  56  38  55 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  42  59  36  60 /  40  20   0   0
SGJ  47  60  39  60 /  40  30   0   0
GNV  43  61  37  62 /  30  20   0   0
OCF  44  62  38  63 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO
     ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/ENYEDI



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