Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 251937

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
335 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...Gusty winds will decrease
this evening as vertical mixing and the pressure gradient
decrease. Surface high pressure will build in from the Gulf
tonight and settle over south Fl on Friday. Mostly clear skies and
lighter winds will prevail tonight and Friday. Good radiational
cooling will result in cooler than normal temperatures tonight.
Lows will be in the low/mid 50s inland to the low 60s along the
coast. Highs on Friday will be warmer with highs reaching near 90
degrees inland and low/mid 80s at the coast where an afternoon
seabreeze will develop.

Friday night through Sunday...deep layer high pressure will dominate
the region through this period with rising thicknesses producing a
warming trend. Still fairly cool Saturday morning with lows down to
a few upper 50s but mostly lower to mid 60s. Saturday and
Sunday...mostly clear skies (other than a more few cu and high
clouds on Sunday ) with warmer temps expected with highs pushing
through the 90-95 deg range. Lows gradually trend to the mid to
upper 60s/70. Predominant low level flow is from the southwest and
west but weak enough for east coast sea breeze to keep the area
beaches just slightly cooler during the day.

.LONG TERM.../Memorial Day through Thursday/...

The deep layer ridge begins to get shunted southeastward as
troughing digs over the ern U.S. A trailing cold front will push
deep into the southeast states with moisture values rising across
our region starting early in the week and continuing to pool over
mainly northern sections initially for Memorial Day with some low
chance for showers and storms late Monday in SE GA. Isolated to
scattered convection possible Tuesday and Tuesday night as front may
enter our SE GA zones and shortwave energy rides west to east across
AL/GA and SC. Confidence in timing of this activity remains low at
this time. Front may stall on Wednesday and lift back northward
slowly on Thursday as troughing in the east lifts out to the
northeast. Sufficient moisture, diurnal instability, and sea breeze
boundaries will likely lead to a better chance of showers and storms
on Wednesday and Thursday. Temps will be near normal.


.AVIATION...West winds gusting to around 25 knots this afternoon
will decrease this evening to less than 10 knots after 23z. VFR
conditions expected to continue into Friday.


.MARINE...High pressure will build south of the waters tonight
with decreasing pressure gradient and winds. Expect SCEC for this
evening decreasing to below headline criteria by midnight. The
high will shift east into the Atlantic early next week with a
frontal boundary approaching the se by midweek.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Friday.


High dispersion today but expect lower values on Friday and
Saturday. Min RH values will drop to critical levels the next couple
of days but winds and low ERC (due to wetted grounds from recent
rains) do not meet red flag criteria.


AMG  55  88  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  64  83  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  58  88  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  84  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  55  88  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  56  88  60  91 /   0   0   0   0


AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM.



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