Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 031919
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
319 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT...

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRENGTH OF THE W/SW FLOW LIMITED
THE SEABREEZE FORMATION WITH LACK OF INLAND PROGRESSION INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AND DRY AIR FURNISHED VERY LIMITED AND ISOLD SHWR AND
TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE GA AND NE FL. ALSO SHEAR WAS MUCH MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS EVENING...THE BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SE GA AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH POPS LIMITED TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT (ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED). THEN THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF AS IT MIGRATES INTO SE GA BETWEEN 06-09Z AND INTO NORTH
FLORIDA BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO TO SPILL
INTO INTERIOR OF SE GA WITH LOWS IN 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
COFFEE...JEFF DAVIS...AND BACON. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

WEDNESDAY...NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL STILL BE OPEN TO THE MOIST
SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH LINGERING
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WNW FLOW
WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE REST OF NE FLORIDA COMING
INTO THIS DRIER FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE PLEASANT WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM /WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY/...

WED NIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND BECOMING
COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE 50S...ABOUT 10-15 DEGS COOLER THAN TUE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...COOLER AND BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO
VALUES WITH ONLY LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SE GA AND UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS NE FL.

THU NIGHT...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR EARLY MAY WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER INLAND AREAS AND
LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOW
VALUES.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW...COOLER TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND THEN
PUSHES INTO THE WRN ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT TO KEEP THIS A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
80S THEN PUSHING THEN BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND
90 DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHWRS WITH A COUPLE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE GEORGIA THIS EVENING WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTERIOR SE GA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE
MAY BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWER CLOUDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT NWLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW AROUND 15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING. WINDS WINDS VEER TO THE W TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND S OF AREA WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE
NW GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS SLOWLY RELAX FRI
AND SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. MAIN SHORT TERM HAZARD
ARE BREEZY SWLY WINDS THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING TSTMS POSSIBLE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK TODAY THROUGH WED. PREVAILING
S-SW FLOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING...VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
FERNANDINA BEACH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN WITH LOWER AND NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 25-30% EACH AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO DIFFICULT TO SPECULATE ON RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  79  53  74 /  40  20   0  10
SSI  68  81  59  73 /  60  30  10   0
JAX  68  83  56  77 /  60  40  10   0
SGJ  69  82  60  78 /  60  60  10   0
GNV  68  82  56  78 /  70  60  10   0
OCF  69  82  56  80 /  70  90  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/HESS



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