Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 250658
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
255 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...Low pressure system over SC
will lift ne to off the NC coast tonight. Wraparound low clouds
this morning will decrease by this afternoon resulting in mostly
sunny and breezy conditions this afternoon. Temperatures today
will warm back into the lower 80s but humidity will still on the
low side with dewpoints in the 50s. West winds will likely bring
smoke from the Mims Wildfire into the Jacksonville area today. Low
temperatures tonight will again drop into the 50s.
Wed...Weak High Pressure ridge will set up over the region at the
surface and aloft with a developing southerly steering flow. This
will provide for a further warming trend with highs reaching well
into the mid/upper 80s inland and lower 80s near the coast as the
weaker flow allow for the sea breezes from both coasts to penetrate
further inland but lack of deep moisture will keep area dry.
Thu...A weakening mid/upper level trof will push into the SE US on
Thursday and into NE FL/SE GA Thu Night. The 00z model runs have
further backed off much in the way of pcpn chances with this but
still enough moisture/lift/heating may trigger widely scattered
showers/storms across inland SE GA/Suwannee River Valley during the
afternoon and overnight hours while the remainder of NE FL and
coastal SE GA likely to remain dry despite the sea breezes pushing
inland during the afternoon hours. Max temps in the upper 80s/near
90 inland and lower/middle 80s at the coast.
.LONG TERM /Fri-Mon/...
Fri/Sat/Sun...Wrn Atlc high pressure ridge will build across the
region with a general southerly steering flow and daily sea breezes
pushing inland. High pressure ridge aloft will generally suppress
convection but some lingering moisture from Thu`s trof and daily sea
breezes pushing inland may be enough to trigger an isolated aftn or
evening storm but overall main impact will be the early summer heat
with Max Temps in the 90-95 deg range inland and middle 80s at the
coast. This heat may get close to some daily record high values over
inland climate stations.
Monday...Longer range models still in general agreement that a
slightly stronger frontal system with better mid/upper level support
will push in at least scattered to possibly numerous rain chances
with storms possible by the afternoon hours or at least by Monday
Night. This feature should be able to bring some slightly better
rainfall totals but also the threat of more lightning to the region.
.AVIATION...MVFR conditions until around mid-morning as low clouds
wrap around upper low located over SC. Also areas of smoke from
Okefenokee wildfire may lower vsbys at the Jacksonville TAF
sites(JAX,VQQ,CRG) this morning. West winds will increase to 10-15
knots with gusts to around 20 knots by midday.
.MARINE...Will keep SCEC headline for offshore marine zones today
due to offshore winds at 15 to 20 knots. Winds will briefly
decrease below headline criteria tonight and Wednesday before
increasing from the south Wednesday night. SCEC conditions
expected again Wednesday night through Saturday.
Rip Currents: Low risk today and Wednesday.
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions in the westerly flow again
today with winds at 10-15G20 mph although RH values will remain
above critical levels in the 30-40% range and elevated dispersions
will be possible across SE GA. The West flow will push the smoke
from the West Mims Fire into the JAX metro area...mostly impacting
the northern portions from Downtown northward to the FL/GA border.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 83 56 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 79 63 81 67 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 84 58 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 80 59 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 82 55 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 82 56 85 60 / 0 0 0 0