Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 311827
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
227 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL GA HAS SE GA/NE FL IN A MOIST
LOW-MID LEVEL SW FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER NE FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SE GA
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS HRRR MODEL INDICATES. SW WINDS
WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST TODAY WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN UPON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. EXPECT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING NUMEROUS
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE INITIATED BY THE
COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

THE TROUGH WEAKENS...WITH SLIGHT RIDGING FOR TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS AS A RESULT...WITH MAIN INITIATION
SOURCES FOR CONVECTION BEING DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL SETTLE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING TOWARD WEEKS END.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA UNTIL AROUND 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS
FORM MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...

SW WINDS WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD
FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. NOCTURAL WINDS SURGES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  73  91 /  40  70  50  40
SSI  75  86  76  89 /  30  60  50  50
JAX  74  88  74  88 /  30  60  50  60
SGJ  73  86  74  86 /  40  60  50  60
GNV  72  87  73  86 /  40  50  50  60
OCF  72  87  73  87 /  40  50  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/ZIBURA



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