Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 270710
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
310 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...Weak surface low off the ne Fl
coast will move ne of the area today as upper trough off the Fl
west coast shifts east. A drier westerly flow will prevail across
the area today. Expect only 20-30 percent chances of convection
this afternoon mainly along the east coast seabreeze as it
approaches the Highway 301 corridor by early evening. Highs will
range from the mid 80s coast to the lower 90s inland. Lows tonight
will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
Wed/Wed Night...Upper level trof amplifying over the Eastern U.S.
will develop a low pressure center over the Carolinas and will
slowly push a cold front into the region from the NW. This will
trigger scattered showers and storms by Wed afternoon area-wide that
will linger across NE FL and the coastal waters Wed Night. A few
strong storms with gusty winds/lightning/heavy rainfall possible but
severe weather threat not expected. Above normal temps will continue
with highs in the upper 80s/near 90 in the SW steering flow and
while the cold front may push into SE GA by late Wed Night with a
few lows in the upper 60s there, still expect warm overnight lows in
the lower to middle 70s elsewhere.
Thu/Thu Night...Mid/Upper level trof over the Eastern U.S. will
amplify just enough to push cold front just SE of the region into
Cntrl FL and offshore to allow for drier airmass to push into SE GA
during the day and NE FL by Thu Night. Widely scattered showers and
storms will be possible across NE FL south of I-10 through early
afternoon otherwise clearing skies in most locations and while the
drier airmass will arrive the warm morning start will still allow
for widespread Max Temps into the upper 80s area-wide with westerly
winds up to 10-15 mph. The cooler temps will be felt later Thu Night
with widespread temps in the upper 50s across inland SE GA and the
Suwannee River valley of N FL by sunrise Fri AM, and cooler 60s
.LONG TERM /Fri-Mon/...
Models continue to hang up front a bit closer to the region over the
middle FL peninsula on Fri then begin to slowly allow it to drift
back northward through the weekend into early next week as the
airmass will modify quickly as the onshore flow begins off the Atlc.
So one completely drier and cooler day is expected on Friday with
highs in the lower/middle 80s and cool temps again Friday Night
similar to Thu Night. The slow modification of additional moisture
will trigger widely scattered showers/storms coastal NE FL by late
Saturday, then scattered showers/storms possible area-wide by later
on Sunday with a further increase on Monday. Max temps closer to
normal values in the middle 80s for highs and 60s for lows except
for 70s along the coast due to the onshore flow.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail today. MVFR cigs possible
this morning with coastal showers near the east coast. IFR vsbys
also possible due to patchy fog inland til around 13z. Isolated
thunderstorms possible along the east coast seabreeze front this
afternoon but will leave out of TAFs due to low probability. Winds
will be light from the nw this morning and will become easterly
this afternoon as the seabreeze moves inland. Exception will be at
GNV where winds will remain westerly.
.MARINE...Winds/seas along with showers will diminish over the Ga
waters this morning as weak low pressure lifts ne of the area by
afternoon. Winds will be mostly offshore for the remainder of the
week with a cold front to move through the area on Thursday.
Rip Currents: Low risk today and Wednesday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 89 70 90 67 / 10 10 50 20
SSI 86 72 87 72 / 40 20 40 30
JAX 89 71 89 71 / 30 10 50 30
SGJ 86 71 88 73 / 10 10 40 30
GNV 88 70 88 71 / 10 10 50 30
OCF 88 71 88 71 / 20 10 50 30