Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 290749
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. MODELS ARE TRENDING QUITE A BIT DRIER TODAY WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING OFFSHORE AND LOWER IN COVERAGE THAN
DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STILL
OVER THE AREA...WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY TODAY/TNGT...WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY MAKING IT ONSHORE FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE
SOUTHWARD. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS UP
SLIGHTLY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S COAST TO
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
MORE MOIST AIR...LOWS TNGT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...WITH READINGS IN` THE MID 60S FAR INLAND...WITH UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A COASTAL TROUGH
MOVES WEST ACROSS THE AREA. MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR THE COAST WILL MIGRATE INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DYNAMICS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MUGGIER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH...ALBEIT
WEAK...WILL APPROACH THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO
INLAND AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO FAVOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ONLY A FEW
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FURTHER INLAND...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE COAST A LITTLE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL...WE WILL
START TO FEEL THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL BOOST RAIN CHANCES INTO THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CATEGORY AREA WIDE. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER/INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO SERVE TO CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S EVERYWHERE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME BRIEF
PATCHES OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT VQQ 08-12Z. EAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 9-13 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
E/NE WINDS TODAY WILL TURN TO THE E/SE SATURDAY...AND TO THE SE
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  67  89  68 /   0  10  30  10
SSI  82  73  83  73 /  10  30  40  20
JAX  87  70  87  70 /  10  30  40  20
SGJ  83  74  84  72 /  10  30  40  20
GNV  90  69  89  69 /  10  10  40  20
OCF  90  69  90  69 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SHULER/


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