Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 140840 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
AREAWIDE TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE SUWANEE RIVER BASIN...BUT THEY WERE
SLOWLY INCREASING...SO WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
THERE COULD BE MORE FROST THIS MORNING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER IN AREAS THAT FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S DUE TO THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. REMOVED FROST FROM THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DEWPOINTS WILL NOT GET ABOVE THE LOW
TO MID 20S BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. HIRES MODELS ARE MORE BULLISH ON
RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH KEEP
SHOWERS OFFSHORE. THE HIRES MODELS MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS AT A
FASTER RATE AND SHARPEN UP THE COASTAL TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE
COAST...WITH SOME MODELS DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
TROUGH. WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...THE COASTAL AREAS MAY JUST
SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SPRINKLES THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
INLAND. ENDED UP GOING WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS WITH 20
PERCENT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. IF THE HIRES
MODELS ARE CORRECT...RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS. HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
THE LAST COUPLE CYCLES...AND THEY HAVE TRENDED HIGHER ONCE
AGAIN...SO WENT WITH THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER DUE TO THE
NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
SUWANEE RIVER BASIN AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
OVER LAND...WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
OVERNIGHT...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WITH IT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE
U.S. MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
BULK OF PCP MONDAY NIGHT. APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA... BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED STORMS AREA WIDE.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO TRACK NE AND THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BE DELAYED...WITH AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST AREAS. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S COAST.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK PROVIDING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS... BUT NO FREEZES EXPECTED. LATER IN
THE WEEK AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND... DEEP LAYER RIDGING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE
AND A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH BKN 3-4
KFT CIGS BY MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY LOWER FURTHER TO 1.5-2.5 KFT
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM DUVAL
COUNTY NORTHWARD. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT
KSSI. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS NEARSHORE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON MONDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  42  69  54 /   0  10  30  70
SSI  54  44  64  57 /  10  20  20  70
JAX  61  46  72  59 /  20  10  20  70
SGJ  60  53  72  59 /  20  20  20  70
GNV  66  47  76  57 /   0   0  10  70
OCF  68  51  77  59 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
 BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PETERSON/KENNEDY/


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