Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 170203
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1000 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
LEFTOVER BY MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND DEEP LAYER TROUGHING. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR
A FEW LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AS ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANY OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE PRIMARILY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING TAKES PLACE...BUT THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
LESS CLEARING WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG TO PRIMARILY JUST PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG ALONG WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVER NE FL OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...WITH SOME
SHOWERS AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF SSI OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY ALSO BE
THE CASE FOR THE NE FL TAFS AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SWD INTO SE GA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. FOR WED...SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT
OVERALL LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT OR BELOW 50% SO VICINITY CONVECTION
USED FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  90  68  86 /  60  20  20  10
SSI  74  85  72  83 /  70  20  30  20
JAX  71  88  71  87 /  80  30  30  10
SGJ  72  84  72  85 /  80  40  40  20
GNV  70  88  69  88 /  80  50  30  10
OCF  71  88  70  89 /  80  50  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/SHASHY





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