Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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295
FXUS62 KJAX 230916
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
416 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINDY WITH HIGH SURF ALONG THE LOWER NORTHEAST FL COAST...

.NEAR TERM (Through tonight)...

A 1002 MB surface low along the east central Florida coast will
meander slowly off the coast before finally accelerating east
tonight. High-res models continue to indicate bands of showers will
continue to move ashore the St Johns and Flagler coasts but
additional rainfall amounts expected to be less than an inch and
taper off beginning late this afternoon and tonight.
Drier air aloft moving in around the system will limit pcp across
the western half of the area. The tight gradient between the low to
the south and the high in the western Atlantic will produce windy
conditions along the northeast Fl coast into this eve and then winds
will begin to decrease tonight as the low moves to the east.

.SHORT TERM (Friday through Saturday night)...Patchy fog is
possible Friday morning, though wind speeds may remain elevated
enough to keep much in the way of dense fog from forming.  Upper
level cutoff low and surface low pressure system begin moving
further out to sea, with the upper level low opens up into more of a
trough.  Onshore flow will continue and upper level ridging will
build briefly across Florida.  Temperatures along the coast will
likely remain in the 70s, while further inland most locations will
be in the low 80s. The risk for high rip currents along northeast
Florida beaches will continue for much of Friday. Patchy dense fog
is possible late Friday night and into Saturday morning.  Upper
level ridging will be short-lived as heights begin falling Saturday
in response to a large upper level shortwave trough crossing the
Great Lakes.  At the surface, a cold front trailing from a rapidly
moving low pressure system in the Great Lakes region will move
through our area.  Some light precip is possible across our furthest
north zones in southeastern Georgia, but model trends continue to
back off on available moisture and any precip.  The front will
continue moving through the area, and skies will clear behind it.
Cold air advection behind the front will put a temporary end to our
above normal temperatures with Saturday night`s lows in the 40s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)...Near normal temperatures
expected Sunday and zonal flow sets up across the Southeast. Surface
high pressure remains in place until it moves offshore sometime
Monday and onshore flow returns.  Dry conditions will continue, and
above normal temperatures will return for the start of the next
workweek as upper level ridging builds across Florida. Our warmest
day will likely be Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s across most
of the area - possibly within a few degrees from record high
temperatures in some locations.  The upper level ridge will retreat
mid-week as another frontal system approaches from the north. Timing
is still suspect, but have some slight chance to chance PoPs for the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Cigs will lower early this morning with prevailing IFR
cigs at GNV and MVFR cigs at remaining terminals. Will have
occasional showers at SGJ and VCSH at the remaining Ne FL terminals.
Cigs expected to improve to VFR by around 18Z. Gusty northeast winds
developing at all terminals aft 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...Low pressure along the east central Fl coast will meander
slowly to the east before accelerating to the east tonight. The
strong gradient between the low to the south and a high across the
western Atlantic will produce strong winds especially along the
lower northeast Fl coast and offshore northeast Fl waters where a
Gale Warning is in effect for today. The strong onshore flow and
large fetch of winds will produce high surf with breakers up to 8
feet along the lower northeast Fl coast where in addition will be
dangerous rip currents. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the
upper Ne Fl near shore waters and offshore Se Ga waters.
Winds will begin to decrease tonight as the low moves east but seas
will remain elevated and SCA conditions expected to continue
offshore into Friday. A cold front will push across the waters late
Saturday with Advisory conditions possible Saturday night.

Rip Currents:  High Risk for the Ne Fl coast and Moderate Risk for
the Se Ga coast through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  55  81  58 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  70  59  73  59 /  20   0   0  10
JAX  76  57  78  58 /  40   0   0   0
SGJ  73  64  76  59 /  60  20   0  10
GNV  78  57  81  57 /  30  10   0   0
OCF  78  58  82  57 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for Flagler-St.
     Johns.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday
     for Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal waters from
     St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Friday
     for Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for Coastal waters
     from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

PP/CE



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