Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 291403
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1003 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
...Near Record Highs Expected Again this Afternoon...
.UPDATE...Sfc high pressure was located over the northeast
Gulf of Mexico southeastward through the central FL peninsula and
into the western atlantic. The high has shifted a bit further
northwest than yesterday which has developed more west to
northwest flow today than yesterday. Blended PWAT satellite
imagery and 12z JAX sounding shows a drier airmass with readings
of about 1.3 to 1.5 inches. This is below average for late July.
Temps aloft continue to be warm again...below average and
subsidence inversion noted around 12000 ft.
There still is a chance that higher moisture will filter into our
southern zones per satellite imagery and model guidance...moving
up through Marion...Putnam and perhaps Flagler counties this
afternoon and evening. The HRRR and other CAM models continue to
suggest our NE FL have the best chance of POPS...although still
relatively low...generally in the 20-30 percent range. Convection
will form along west coast and east coast sea breezes with the
west coast boundary more dominant.
Near record highs in the upper 90s inland, with mid 90s expected
at the beaches. Dry air will mix down to the surface during the
afternoon hours, keeping max heat index values around 105 degrees.
See records below.
Some isolated evening convection will mainly be along or near the
St. Johns River and any lingering stronger outflow boundaries.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 at the
.AVIATION...prevailing VFR. Best chance of convection will be
around GNV and perhaps VQQ. For now will maintain VCTS at GNV by
late afternoon and evening.
.MARINE...initial westerly flow near 10-15 kt will become
southeast to south quickly this afternoon as sea breeze develops.
Seas of about 3 ft or less today. Think most storms will be inland
and not affect the marine zones this evening and overnight.
Rip Currents: Low risk with surf of about 1 foot or less per
Record highs for today (7/29):
Jacksonville 100 (1875)
Gainesville 99 (1896)
St. Simons Island 99 (1993)
Alma 99 (1993)
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 99 74 98 74 / 10 0 30 30
SSI 95 80 95 80 / 10 10 20 20
JAX 98 75 97 76 / 20 20 30 30
SGJ 94 78 94 78 / 20 10 20 30
GNV 97 74 95 74 / 20 10 40 20
OCF 95 74 94 75 / 30 20 40 20