Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 240750
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014


...CONTINUED WARM WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER INLAND...

.SHORT TERM...
THIS MORNING...A COMBINATION OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY
FOG IMPACTED MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW TEMPS ON
TRACK TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE
LOW/MID 60S OVER NE FL AND ATLANTIC COAST. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH AXIS OVER SE GA...WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. SHALLOW WSW
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WAS ADVECTING GULF
MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 60S. A BROAD SWATH OF STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX NOTED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF TREKKING EASTWARD. LOCALLY...GIVEN THE UPPER
SUBSIDENCE AND MOIST LOW LEVELS... CONTINUED TO ADVERTISED PATCHY
DENSE FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR OVER THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNRISE. FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN 8-10 AM INLAND
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A CUMULUS FIELD BEGINS
TO FORM THROUGH NOON WITH TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 80 INLAND TO UPPER
70S COAST WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP.

THIS AFTN...THE 00Z JAX RAOB SHOWED VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ABOVE
770 MB AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD
FIRM THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. DESPITE A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS WITH
PWATS NEARING 1-1.20 INCHES THIS AFTN AS THE SEA BREEZES PROGRESS
INLAND...GIVEN SUCH STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PER THE
MODEL SOUNDING OPTED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT ONLY 15-20% INLAND
AND REMOVED TSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST. THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INITIATE ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES DURING THE
EARLY AFTN THEN PROGRESS INLAND TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH A VERY WEAK WLY
STEERING FLOW < 10 KTS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WITH SOME LINGERING CUMULUS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND ONCE AGAIN BUT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WSW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID
CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER SE GA AND CLEARING SKIES OVER NE FL. TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S COAST.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY WITH GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOWING LATE DAY PRECIP OVER SE
GA. WILL KEEP POPS SILENT DUE TO DRY AIRMASS AND WEAK LIFT. UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY PRODUCING HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY PRODUCING HOT TEMPERATURES(NEAR 90 DEGREES
INLAND) ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED P.M. SEABREEZE COVECTION. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE SE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE GULF COAST AND ADVECTED
INLAND REACHING GNV. EXPECT LIFR CIGS WITH FOG AT GNV AND VQQ
UNTIL AROUND 12Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH JAX AND CRG IN 10Z-12Z
RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE
IN THE AFTN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS
WITH COMBINED SEAS NOW 1-3 FT WITH A 1 FT SWELL. WINDS WILL VEER
WSW FRI NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS OFFSHORE AS A WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE MOVES OVER THE SE REGION. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS EAST
OF THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING SSE AND SPEEDS 10-15 KTS AND
COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES WITHIN MANY
LOCAL RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE ALTAMAHA...SUWANEE...ST MARYS AND
SANTA FE RIVER. THE SANTA FE RIVER AT THREE RIVER ESTATES IS
FORECAST TO RISE INTO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ON FRIDAY...WITH A
CONTINUED RISE INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  61  86  59 /  20  20   0  10
SSI  75  65  82  66 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  84  63  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  80  65  83  64 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  86  60  87  62 /  20  20   0  10
OCF  85  60  87  61 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA






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